Guide versus actual selling price in Dublin recently

Awkwardstroke

Hi All,

A quick question as to recent experiences of bidding/buying a house in Dublin (inside the M50). Are guide prices a decent indication of final selling prices? Or are they deliberately set slightly lower to hook in a few excited bidders?

I’m considering buying in Dublin (3bed house) and don’t want to waste my time on places then to see them spiral out of my price range.

I know there is of course a lot of variation in experiences yet thoughts welcome on this.

Dav010

The actual price depends on what people are willing to pay, until you know that, the guide is simply that, a guide. Personally, I prefer if the EA guides lower to get a couple of buyers interested, then let them bid away.

HenryOR76

This is just our experience, but we have bid on 3 in the last few months and all have gone +50-85k over the asking price so in our experience the guide prices have not been a decent indication of final selling price. However with the current situation and not being able to view houses until your offer is accepted we are dubious as to whether people are just throwing high offers at houses and then when they see them pulling out, however if that's the case we haven't been contacted to say that the agreed offer has been withdrawn so there is no proof that that's what is happening. Advice would be to get in early and put in an offer if you see one you like, but don't get too attached early on..

whiskeyman

Right now, guide prices are just that.
Most likely low to hook as many in.
Expect any in demand to have gone for 10-15% above.

Do you home work though.
Check around to see what sold recently and at what price, and also enquire about stuff that's gone sale agreed.
A lot of that will dictate future price.

Awkwardstroke

Thanks a lot, with the Covid restrictions seeing houses has got more difficult and I don’t want to waste mine (or auctioneers) time bidding when it’s been lowballed.

Having said that it seems Dublin house price rises have moderated somewhat compared to the rest of the country (remote working?) so maybe this will change.

whiskeyman wrote: »

Right now, guide prices are just that.
Most likely low to hook as many in.
Expect any in demand to have gone for 10-15% above.

Do you home work though.
Check around to see what sold recently and at what price, and also enquire about stuff that's gone sale agreed.
A lot of that will dictate future price.

Baby01032012

Asking are about 20%+ below sale agreed prices. An agent gives a client an advised market value. It’s up to him and client what they list it at. Quiet often it will be on lower end of the AMV. With the current covid bubble with too few houses and desperate bidders this is fueling the increased selling price.

Alkers

In the sub 600k range I'm seeing +10% minimum over asking price, often within a couple of days of having been listed. Spike to three seperate estate agents who say they can't keep up with the increases, ten year high prices being achieved since level 5 came in, mostly desperate first time buyers. All down to understandably low supply, might settle a bit if a wave of listings come on when restrictions ease but who knows

dubrov

Ignore the asking price and just look at the property price register. It will give you the best indication of what a house will sell at

Alkers

dubrov wrote: »

Ignore the asking price and just look at the property price register. It will give you the best indication of what a house will sell at

It really won't unless you've been following the area and listings closely. You've no idea of condition of houses and there is a decent lag between sales and the register being updated. It's a good indicator but that's it

stampydmonkey

Alkers wrote: »

In the sub 600k range I'm seeing +10% minimum over asking price, often within a couple of days of having been listed. Spike to three seperate estate agents who say they can't keep up with the increases, ten year high prices being achieved since level 5 came in, mostly desperate first time buyers. All down to understandably low supply, might settle a bit if a wave of listings come on when restrictions ease but who knows

Same as this sub 600k market all going 10-15% higher than asking at a minimum where we are looking. (Northside)

Awkwardstroke

Thanks All,

Some valuable recent information on this question. Hopefully supply will increase in the months ahead, yet with the future easing of Covid restrictions might lead to even more demand ( increased public feel good factor).



quote="stampydmonkey;116585477"]Same as this sub 600k market all going 10-15% higher than asking at a minimum where we are looking. (Northside)[/quote]

Buddy Bubs

2 houses on my road up for sale in last couple of months, talked to one of the sellers and the whole process took 2 weeks from listing to sale agreed. They moved out last week. It's on property price register as 5k over asking but I thought the asking was realistic as to what I'd sell my own for.

The other is listed at 5k above asking price of the sold one and I see its sale agreed now too.

Same estate agent selling both so he seems to list at prices he thinks will sell. Or maybe both buyers just want it done quickly.

Awkwardstroke

Thanks for this, what area of Dublin is that?

Buddy Bubs wrote: »

2 houses on my road up for sale in last couple of months, talked to one of the sellers and the whole process took 2 weeks from listing to sale agreed. They moved out last week. It's on property price register as 5k over asking but I thought the asking was realistic as to what I'd sell my own for.

The other is listed at 5k above asking price of the sold one and I see its sale agreed now too.

Same estate agent selling both so he seems to list at prices he thinks will sell. Or maybe both buyers just want it done quickly.

Buddy Bubs

Awkwardstroke wrote: »

Thanks for this, what area of Dublin is that?

Lucan

dubrov

Alkers wrote:

It really won't unless you've been following the area and listings closely. You've no idea of condition of houses and there is a decent lag between sales and the register being updated. It's a good indicator but that's it

If you Google the address, the chances are you will find photos of the properties and guage their condition.

There is a lag between the sale and appearing on the register but it is generally less than 6 months. Despite all the commentary on this forum, property prices aren't rising that quickly

Dav010

dubrov wrote: »

If you Google the address, the chances are you will find photos of the properties and guage their condition.

There is a lag between the sale and appearing on the register but it is generally less than 6 months. Despite all the commentary on this forum, property prices aren't rising that quickly

PPR might give you a reasonable guide on price, it will not tell you what a property will sell for.

dubrov

Dav010 wrote:

PPR might give you a reasonable guide on price, it will not tell you what a property will sell for.

Isn't that what the OP is looking for, a reasonable estimate? Nothing will tell you exactly what a property will sell for.

AngryLips

I've heard that different estate agents have different strategies. Some will list at the lower end of the scale to attract interest, while others will list at the upper end of the scale in the hope of securing a high price.

thegreatescape

dubrov wrote: »

Ignore the asking price and just look at the property price register. It will give you the best indication of what a house will sell at

I'm bidding on a house currently and I'm the highest bidder with an offer of the asking price. The asking price is above what houses have sold for on the property price register along the same road but I still haven't heard back about my offer. I have no idea if my offer is realistic or if the vendor will want to sell for more.

Caranica

Friend looking around Rush/Lusk/Skerries Very small supply and everything going 10-15% above asking.

brio09

we were bidding for a house that was asking 650. bids started at 640 and went sale agreed at 735.
so insane price hikes.
also, have you seen https://www.thejournal.ie/impact-of-pandemic-on-house-prices-in-ireland-5384503-Mar2021/ ?

Emma2019

dubrov wrote: »

If you Google the address, the chances are you will find photos of the properties and guage their condition.

There is a lag between the sale and appearing on the register but it is generally less than 6 months. Despite all the commentary on this forum, property prices aren't rising that quickly

I think you might find the data on that changing over the next few months.

A friend is sale agreed on a house at the moment for 368k but it's going to take about 3 months + to close the sale. So that price isn't going to show up anywhere until around June. This was 40k over asking.

He got a newsletter yesterday of sales that had closed in his area in the last few months [but would have been agreed around Oct/Nov 2020]. Several of the houses were bigger, better located, decorated as well and had gone for about 30-40k less than the price his bidding war lead him to.

dubrov

Emma2019 wrote: »

I think you might find the data on that changing over the next few months.

A friend is sale agreed on a house at the moment for 368k but it's going to take about 3 months + to close the sale. So that price isn't going to show up anywhere until around June. This was 40k over asking.

He got a newsletter yesterday of sales that had closed in his area in the last few months [but would have been agreed around Oct/Nov 2020]. Several of the houses were bigger, better located, decorated as well and had gone for about 30-40k less than the price his bidding war lead him to.

Yes there is a lag on the PPR but it should give you an approximation.

If your friend is paying 10% extra over the prices 5 months ago for a smaller house, he should walk away.

Let's say the extras are worth 5%, that suggests prices have increased at an annualised rate of 36%. Even the peak of the last boom didn't hit anywhere near that growth in prices.

Mad_maxx

house for sale in Harold cross which my sister and her husband were bidding on a fortnight ago , asking price was 595 , they went to 625 , current bid is 670

Alkers

Have seen similar in D12, 525 asking, over 600k now

Emma2019

dubrov wrote: »

Yes there is a lag on the PPR but it should give you an approximation.

If your friend is paying 10% extra over the prices 5 months ago for a smaller house, he should walk away.

Let's say the extras are worth 5%, that suggests prices have increased at an annualised rate of 36%. Even the peak of the last boom didn't hit anywhere near that growth in prices.

But that's what I mean. The rate of house price increase is insane at the moment.

There is another property he was looking at nearby his one that is almost identical and bidding is now at 385k.

But you won't see the stark increase until the sales actually close which will be in a few months.

brio09

another house in stillorgan area with an asking of 699 has gone up to 780.
sometimes it feels like when agents don't follow the rules and let people view the houses, that drives up the prices a lot for that house.

DataDude

Know someone selling house in SCD in the 600-700 range. Just gone sale agreed 15k+ under asking and 10k below what it was sale agreed for 18 months ago. I wouldn't assume everything is going way over asking and not even enquire on that basis. Take each house on it's own merits - rules of thumbs aren't helpful as it varies so much from EA to EA.

Milena009

I am Sale agreed on a house just 5k over asking myself.
Seen it twice, contract in works

Other house we bid on was at 30k over askign when we left it. (Clondalkin)

So it does truly depend.

hometruths

DataDude wrote: »

Know someone selling house in SCD in the 600-700 range. Just gone sale agreed 15k+ under asking and 10k below what it was sale agreed for 18 months ago. I wouldn't assume everything is going way over asking and not even enquire on that basis. Take each house on it's own merits - rules of thumbs aren't helpful as it varies so much from EA to EA.

If you've been looking at North Wicklow for last year or so, I guess you've come across most of the estate agents in the area? Have you been particularly impressed with any of them? (or particularly unimpressed!) Do PM me if you need to speak freely!

silver2020

If a house is in an established area where it is easy access to the tech hubs of the docks, canal & Sandyford and is attractive to buyers, it will sell over the guide. Stillorgan is a classic example.

Stock markets have literally roared in the past 12 months and many staff will have stock options which are worth hundreds of thousands.

An extra 50k for the house they want is neither here nor there and they won't be concerned with any potential price drop.


Go for more everyday areas that has building activity such as Newcastle, Carrickmines, Leopardstown and you will find the asking price and selling price will be closely matched