United Ireland Poll - please vote

end of the road

Zaph wrote: »

You keep mentioning that we can afford it, but just to clarify a couple of points. NI does not contribute to the running of the British royal family, their income comes from a grant from the British government equal to 25% of the income of the royal estates. That amounts to about £80-90m per year. Even if they paid the lot of it directly, that's a drop in the ocean compared to the £9bn subvention Britain pays every year to prop up the NI economy.

Secondly, a lot of that support comes in the form of public sector jobs in NI, it's the single biggest employer there. What happens to all those jobs if NI leaves the UK? It's not like all of them will be automatically transferrable to our public sector, that's already bloated as it is. So instead of all those people contributing to the economy many are more likely to end up on the dole, which will cost us even more.

No matter how you dice it, NI receives vastly more from the UK than it contributes to the central coffers. That in itself isn't unusual, the tax take in Dublin supports the cost of maintaining services in other parts of the country. But the sheer scale of what would be foisted upon us would end up either crippling the economy here, and probably not helping the NI economy much either as they certainly wouldn't be getting £9bn a year, or would result in significant tax hikes for everyone. Personally I feel I pay more than enough tax, and being asked to pay more for some people's romantic notion of a United Ireland is not something that I would be happy to do.

yes but with no need to contribute to british institutions anymore there are no need for grants and subsidies for those so the over all subsidy reduces.
northern ireland as part of the ROI unlocks investment in various forms which will create jobs in northern ireland.
it has not been denied by me or anyone that NI receives more then it contributes, in fact we have been saying that being part of the UK created that situation via the fact the UK refuses to invest in NI.
we will be paying higher taxes anyway whether a UI happens or not, tax increases are coming for various reasons.

Sunny Disposition

blanch152 wrote: »

Resettlement grants? Are they not just a nicer modern version of what happened in Zimbabwe and South Africa? Or just revenge on Cromwell and the plantations?

Those who propose them just don't realise or accept that people are entitled to live on this island as British.

Totally accept they have every right, no one would have to take such grants, but they’d be helpful to those that don’t want to live in a UI as the leader of unionism says she won’t.

blanch152

Sunny Disposition wrote: »

Totally accept they have every right, no one would have to take such grants, but they’d be helpful to those that don’t want to live in a UI as the leader of unionism says she won’t.

How would you feel about relocation grants for nationalists in the North who don't want to live there if a united Ireland poll is lost?

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

How would you feel about relocation grants for nationalists in the North who don't want to live there if a united Ireland poll is lost?

Would be better than what you propose for Unionists who don't want to stay - abandon them. That is the partitionist way, nationalists know how that feels already.

Sunny Disposition

blanch152 wrote: »

How would you feel about relocation grants for nationalists in the North who don't want to live there if a united Ireland poll is lost?

I don’t really seee the demand, partition has been going on for 100 years. I’m not getting at unionists with the suggestion, no one would have to take it, some unionists have said they would leave if it happened, this would be a help to them if they do wish to go.

blanch152

Sunny Disposition wrote: »

I don’t really seee the demand, partition has been going on for 100 years. I’m not getting at unionists with the suggestion, no one would have to take it, some unionists have said they would leave if it happened, this would be a help to them if they do wish to go.

Yes, indeed, partition has been going on for 100 years, and the border is probably in the top 5 of the longest-lasting unchanged land borders in Europe, maybe even the top 1.

Mongfinder General

end of the road wrote: »

yes but with no need to contribute to british institutions anymore there are no need for grants and subsidies for those so the over all subsidy reduces.
northern ireland as part of the ROI unlocks investment in various forms which will create jobs in northern ireland.
it has not been denied by me or anyone that NI receives more then it contributes, in fact we have been saying that being part of the UK created that situation via the fact the UK refuses to invest in NI.
we will be paying higher taxes anyway whether a UI happens or not, tax increases are coming for various reasons.

Will we be taking on repayment of Northern Ireland’s share of the U.K. national debt?

end of the road

Mongfinder General wrote: »

Will we be taking on repayment of Northern Ireland’s share of the U.K. national debt?

i would suggest no.
i'm sure britain will try and get NI and by extension us to agree to take on part of the UK'S national debt, but they can't force us to do it ultimately and we won't be agreeing to do it as ultimately the UK'S national debt is the responsibility of the remaining members.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Yes, indeed, partition has been going on for 100 years, and the border is probably in the top 5 of the longest-lasting unchanged land borders in Europe, maybe even the top 1.

And now causing issue Europe wide.

Mongfinder General

end of the road wrote: »

i would suggest no.
i'm sure britain will try and get NI and by extension us to agree to take on part of the UK'S national debt, but they can't force us to do it ultimately and we won't be agreeing to do it as ultimately the UK'S national debt is the responsibility of the remaining members.

Hmmm. It may be more complex than you think. https://academic.oup.com/ereh/article/24/4/818/5827947

Bobeagleburger

When you get into the economics the UI argument always untangles. Nothing like the prospect of losing your job to sway your vote.

A UI is decades away unfortunately.

blanch152

end of the road wrote: »

i would suggest no.
i'm sure britain will try and get NI and by extension us to agree to take on part of the UK'S national debt, but they can't force us to do it ultimately and we won't be agreeing to do it as ultimately the UK'S national debt is the responsibility of the remaining members.

Why is it the responsibility of the remaining members?

Surely that would mean that everyone except the Isle of Wight could leave the UK, saddling the Isle of the Wight with the whole debt. It is a silly notion to suggest that leaving means you walk away from your share of debt.

end of the road

blanch152 wrote: »

Why is it the responsibility of the remaining members?

Surely that would mean that everyone except the Isle of Wight could leave the UK, saddling the Isle of the Wight with the whole debt. It is a silly notion to suggest that leaving means you walk away from your share of debt.

because they are still in the UK and it's the UK'S national debt.
NI will have left the UK and ireland did it's bit in terms of debt when it left the UK.
ultimately no, everyone else leaving the UK wouldn't saddle the isle of wight with the whole of the debt, seeing as the debt would actually belong to england given england is the ruling nation of the UK and makes the main decisions.

a very cool kid

A 10bn euro subvention is roughly sixth of normal government revenue in ROI. To make that up assuming taxes are all raised equally you'd be looking at close to 60% income tax on all income over 30k.

And that's before you equalise welfare rates, pensions etc.

that impacts everybody.


Something that always makes me laugh is when people say the EU or UK will make up the shortfall. What's the point of the "free " country if it can't survive without taking a foreign power's shilling?

James Brown

end of the road wrote: »

i would suggest no.
i'm sure britain will try and get NI and by extension us to agree to take on part of the UK'S national debt, but they can't force us to do it ultimately and we won't be agreeing to do it as ultimately the UK'S national debt is the responsibility of the remaining members.

Don't send Micheal Martin to negotiate that one. Remember when he went over to Brussels to get money and came back owing?

The assumption seems to be FF/FG are incapable of reviving the North. Its a fair comment as that's the level of competency we're accustomed to but I think it will be a great positive for the country.

ittakestwo

blanch152 wrote: »

Resettlement grants? Are they not just a nicer modern version of what happened in Zimbabwe and South Africa? Or just revenge on Cromwell and the plantations?

Those who propose them just don't realise or accept that people are entitled to live on this island as British.

Nationalist or anyone from Ireland are Irish by that fact. The British in Ireland is by citizenship which is precarious on the UK surving or the North staying in the union. It can only be inferred by the unionists who say they arent Irish but British only that they see themselves as foreigners to this Island. Nationalist don't see themselves as foreigners to the Island but would rather they were governed by this island rather than the Island to the east. Thier identy as Irish can survive in the union in the same way an English or Scottish Identity can survive within the union.

But the British identity in the case of the UK dissolving is gone. British citizenship wont exist and unionist in the north are not even from the island of Britain to call themselves British like nationalists can say they're Irish living within Ireland currently. So if there was a grant it would only really make sence to give to people who see themselves as foreigners to where they live.

downcow

end of the road wrote: »

because they are still in the UK and it's the UK'S national debt.
NI will have left the UK and ireland did it's bit in terms of debt when it left the UK.
ultimately no, everyone else leaving the UK wouldn't saddle the isle of wight with the whole of the debt, seeing as the debt would actually belong to england given england is the ruling nation of the UK and makes the main decisions.

Where do you get the idea that England is ‘the ruling nation’ of the U.K. ?

hots

end of the road wrote: »

yes but with no need to contribute to british institutions anymore there are no need for grants and subsidies for those so the over all subsidy reduces.
northern ireland as part of the ROI unlocks investment in various forms which will create jobs in northern ireland.
it has not been denied by me or anyone that NI receives more then it contributes, in fact we have been saying that being part of the UK created that situation via the fact the UK refuses to invest in NI.
we will be paying higher taxes anyway whether a UI happens or not, tax increases are coming for various reasons.

I appreciate that cost is basically not a factor for you and some others, that's fair enough, but the above doesn't really make sense.

We'll be paying more tax so what's a bit more on top is pretty naive...

NI being part of ROI will attract investment + jobs... why? Lovely to think so but I can't see any reason why we could be confident that would happen.

What british institutions won't they need to contribute to anymore? The royal family pays for itself as per the other poster, military & health we have too (granted a minute military cost in comparison). Does that balance out taking on the majority of the workforce into the public sector (that isn't exactly calling out for more people in it as it is)?

The economics of it seems like a fairly obvious negative, saying a UI is still worth it anyway is fair enough but no point painting it as a great windfall to the island unless I'm missing something.

blanch152

ittakestwo wrote: »

Nationalist or anyone from Ireland are Irish by that fact. The British in Ireland is by citizenship which is precarious on the UK surving or the North staying in the union. It can only be inferred by the unionists who say they arent Irish but British only that they see themselves as foreigners to this Island. Nationalist don't see themselves as foreigners to the Island but would rather they were governed by this island rather than the Island to the east. Thier identy as Irish can survive in the union in the same way an English or Scottish Identity can survive within the union.

But the British identity in the case of the UK dissolving is gone. British citizenship wont exist and unionist in the north are not even from the island of Britain to call themselves British like nationalists can say they're Irish living within Ireland currently. So if there was a grant it would only really make sence to give to people who see themselves as foreigners to where they live.

I think you need to re-read the GFA. Anyone born in Northern Ireland is British by birthright if they want to be.

You are kidding yourself if you think British citizenship won't exist after a successful border poll.

blanch152

end of the road wrote: »

because they are still in the UK and it's the UK'S national debt.
NI will have left the UK and ireland did it's bit in terms of debt when it left the UK.
ultimately no, everyone else leaving the UK wouldn't saddle the isle of wight with the whole of the debt, seeing as the debt would actually belong to england given england is the ruling nation of the UK and makes the main decisions.

What sort of nonsense is that?

Either the UK national debt is the responsibility of everyone currently in the UK, or they could all (England, Wales and Scotland) leave and saddle Northern Ireland or the Isle of Wight with it.

Wishful thinking and hope of unicorns and rainbows won't make the issue of legacy NI debt go away.

James Brown

Any debt accrued by the UK belongs to the UK, unless people are suggesting Stormont makes all decisions for the UK?

hots

James Brown wrote: »

Any debt accrued by the UK belongs to the UK, unless people are suggesting Stormont makes all decisions for the UK?

you'd make a good divorce lawyer

The Great

ittakestwo wrote: »

Nationalist or anyone from Ireland are Irish by that fact. The British in Ireland is by citizenship which is precarious on the UK surving or the North staying in the union. It can only be inferred by the unionists who say they arent Irish but British only that they see themselves as foreigners to this Island. Nationalist don't see themselves as foreigners to the Island but would rather they were governed by this island rather than the Island to the east. Thier identy as Irish can survive in the union in the same way an English or Scottish Identity can survive within the union.

But the British identity in the case of the UK dissolving is gone. British citizenship wont exist and unionist in the north are not even from the island of Britain to call themselves British like nationalists can say they're Irish living within Ireland currently. So if there was a grant it would only really make sence to give to people who see themselves as foreigners to where they live.

"Nationalist or anyone from Ireland are Irish by that fact. "

WRONG ! Just because you were born in a stable, it does not make you a horse.

We had a Referendum in 2004 to allow our government change citizenship laws to avoid recognising Irish born children of illegal immigrants the right to Irish Citizenship. Pretty clear from the Referendum that we (75% of the electorate) did not see these people as Irish

"The British in Ireland is by citizenship which is precarious on the UK surving or the North staying in the union"

Ireland has NO sovereignty to Northern Ireland. Never had. UK has. It is a matter for the people of NI and only NI as to whether they will stay with the UK or not

I highly highly highly doubt, if NI leave the UK to set up their own nation or join the South, that Westminster will enact UK wide legislation to change their citizenship laws which would prevent people of Northern Ireland born at the time of the act , from applying for British Citizenship. Maybe prevent people born after the enactment of such legislation, but even then , they would be able to get their British Citizenship from their parent (and maybe grandparent) They won't be able to revoke British citizenship from Unionists who already possess it. You don't have a leg to stand on . That view is nonsense. There is no legal basis for this. People like you should refrain from uttering such ill informed statements like that .


"It can only be inferred by the unionists who say they aren't Irish but British only that they see themselves as foreigners to this Island."

At no stage has the State of Ireland, ever have sovereignty over the 6 counties of Northern Ireland. Old Article 2 and 3 were mere rhetorical and in the words of the Supreme Court in the case of McGimpsey v Ireland 1988(ish) "aspirational".

Northern Ireland is part of the UK. It was not until 1998 that a kid born in NI, but the island of Ireland, could simply apply for Irish Passport without doing anything else

Prior to GFA, the only people being constitutionally entitled to citizenship of the Irish state post-1937 Constitution were those who had been citizens of the Irish Free State before its dissolution. The 1956 Act as amended, prior to GFA provided that anyone born in Northern Ireland was NOT automatically an Irish citizen but entitled to be an Irish citizen - by making applications for it . People like Mary McAleese was deemed an Irish Citizen as of birth via her father, who was born in Roscommon - how embarrassing for Republicans in the North

GFA DOES NOT and Never purported to remove the automatic birth right of all born in NI to be British Citizens !!

All those born in NI are still automatically British Citizens , just like pre 1998 - This was a recent event in the De Sousa case in NI . That case still requires that specific issue to be answered by the Superior Courts because at Appeal, the Court reserved judgment on that point, instead favouring her on other points. (the point being whether or not she had to renounce her British citizenship - she claimed, laughably, that she never had British Citizenship (she was born before GFA)

The Great

James Brown wrote: »

Don't send Micheal Martin to negotiate that one. Remember when he went over to Brussels to get money and came back owing?

The assumption seems to be FF/FG are incapable of reviving the North. Its a fair comment as that's the level of competency we're accustomed to but I think it will be a great positive for the country.

How would it be a great positivity ?

Unionist won't engage . Not once have they come on board with the All Ireland Councils as stipulated in GFA . They are an economic basket case , heavily reliant on State jobs and funding . There is no way that cities like Cork , Limerick and Galway are going to sit idly by while investment capital is proposed to be pumped into kips like Belfast, Derry and Larne , and Dublin won't tolerate any investments being moved away from their patch to Belfast .

SF proved that they couldn't organise a pee up in a brewery (which is remarkable as they are All Ireland Champions when it comes to organising fundraisers of all legal hues) as per their time ruling Dublin City Council 2014-2016 on areas like Housing where they had executive powers............oh and NI, they can barely get DUP to agree with them on anything

Hamsterchops

If the people of NI really want to leave the UK and become one with us then they will, it's their perogative as per the GFA. But would we be mad to let it happen (without total buy-in from the Unionists)?

After twenty years of peace on the island, would it be foolish to throw everything up in the air and declare a New Ireland.

The financial cost and threat of civil unrest, I'm not so sure the reality would be as liberating as the dream.

The Great

Hamsterchops wrote: »

If the people of NI really want to leave the UK and become one with us then they will, it's their perogative as per the GFA. But would we be mad to let it happen (without total buy-in from the Unionists)?

After twenty years of peace on the island, would it be foolish to throw everything up in the air and declare a New Ireland.

The financial cost and threat of civil unrest, I'm not so sure the reality would be as liberating as the dream.

1. There is absolutely nothing stopping them from living in the 26 counties now. That does not remove the UK of course but .......moving down here can make them "one of us"

2. The Republic also have to support a UI.......not just the Nordies. They too will have to pass a referendum - Its personal choice about whether we would be mad to let them in. Right now, I would say it would be bonkers, even if they were interested .

"After twenty years of peace on the island"

Relative peace. Division and mistrust still exists. Peace lines continue to exist in Belfast. People still segregate on religious / political terms

end of the road

a very cool kid wrote: »

A 10bn euro subvention is roughly sixth of normal government revenue in ROI. To make that up assuming taxes are all raised equally you'd be looking at close to 60% income tax on all income over 30k.

And that's before you equalise welfare rates, pensions etc.

that impacts everybody.


Something that always makes me laugh is when people say the EU or UK will make up the shortfall. What's the point of the "free " country if it can't survive without taking a foreign power's shilling?

again those numbers are all speculatory as you are forgetting that there is no guarantee that subvention will stay at that rate upon reunification.
even if it did, realistically it would include all the harmonisation of everything which would replace all of the costs of it currently being part of britain which it is subvented for as part of their subvention.
not to mention an all ireland economy unlocks investment and job creation so even the subvention goes down.


it was foreign money that built all of the infrastructure in this country in recent years, you think we payed for all those expensive motor ways ourselves? not a chance.
and foreign money would only be for things like infrastructure that need building up, in a UI situation.
so basically, more nothingness against a UI but plenty in favour of why it will have to happen.

James Brown wrote: »

Don't send Micheal Martin to negotiate that one. Remember when he went over to Brussels to get money and came back owing?

The assumption seems to be FF/FG are incapable of reviving the North. Its a fair comment as that's the level of competency we're accustomed to but I think it will be a great positive for the country.

oh yes, i remember that alright, an absolute stinger that one.
a UI will be a positive agree, and the majority of unionists, who i believe will stay even if they don't agree with a UI will play their part in building the country, they are a pragmatic people ultimately.

downcow wrote: »

Where do you get the idea that England is ‘the ruling nation’ of the U.K. ?

from reality.
the westminster government, based in england, make the major decisions over the UK.

end of the road

blanch152 wrote: »

I think you need to re-read the GFA. Anyone born in Northern Ireland is British by birthright if they want to be.

You are kidding yourself if you think British citizenship won't exist after a successful border poll.

it will if the UK doesn't ultimately break up, which is the situation they are talking in terms of when they say british citizenship won't exist.
but you know this because their post was very clear.

blanch152 wrote: »

What sort of nonsense is that?

Either the UK national debt is the responsibility of everyone currently in the UK, or they could all (England, Wales and Scotland) leave and saddle Northern Ireland or the Isle of Wight with it.

Wishful thinking and hope of unicorns and rainbows won't make the issue of legacy NI debt go away.

what sort of nonsense is it? well, it isn't.
england makes the main decisions for the whole of the UK, it borrows the money on behalf of the UK, it ultimately ends up with debt on behalf of the UK.
the national debt is the responsibility of the members of the UK while they are members, and once they sease to be part of the UK, it belongs to the remaining members.
the debt can't be left/saddled on to northern ireland because they will have left the UK, and it can't be saddled on to the isle of wight as they didn't specifically create the debt and nobody can be forced to pay someone else's debt.
legacy NI debt is a separate issue to UK debt and would itself be tiny.

hots

end of the road wrote: »

it will if the UK doesn't ultimately break up, which is the situation they are talking in terms of when they say british citizenship won't exist.
but you know this because their post was very clear.





what sort of nonsense is it? well, it isn't.
england makes the main decisions for the whole of the UK, it borrows the money on behalf of the UK, it ultimately ends up with debt on behalf of the UK.
the national debt is the responsibility of the members of the UK while they are members, and once they sease to be part of the UK, it belongs to the remaining members.
the debt can't be left/saddled on to northern ireland because they will have left the UK, and it can't be saddled on to the isle of wight as they didn't specifically create the debt and nobody can be forced to pay someone else's debt.
legacy NI debt is a separate issue to UK debt and would itself be tiny.

you would also make a good divorce lawyer... the debt was taken on by the UK (not England) and is currently owed by the UK. In the divorce agreement, who knows what would happen, the remaining bits of the UK might be happy to be shot of the NI burden and waive it, or they could say that they are responsible for their proportion of the debt surely? The Scottish Indy vote will be more telling anyway.

blanch152

end of the road wrote: »

it will if the UK doesn't ultimately break up, which is the situation they are talking in terms of when they say british citizenship won't exist.
but you know this because their post was very clear.





what sort of nonsense is it? well, it isn't.
england makes the main decisions for the whole of the UK, it borrows the money on behalf of the UK, it ultimately ends up with debt on behalf of the UK.
the national debt is the responsibility of the members of the UK while they are members, and once they sease to be part of the UK, it belongs to the remaining members.
the debt can't be left/saddled on to northern ireland because they will have left the UK, and it can't be saddled on to the isle of wight as they didn't specifically create the debt and nobody can be forced to pay someone else's debt.
legacy NI debt is a separate issue to UK debt and would itself be tiny.

Legacy NI debt is a proportionate share of UK debt. The only question is whether UK debt is divided by population, by GDP or by share of UK public expenditure.