United Ireland Poll - please vote

VinLieger

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Sorry, don't understand that.

My understanding is that any poll will be preceded by a full discussion of the issues. Like all our referenda.

Where does the GFA state that?

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What is the 'mindset' that is unique to NI and what has caused and deepened it?

The binary sectarian mindsets are uniquely adhered to in Northern Ireland. Nowhere else in Europe do both sides cling to their exclusionary nationalist beliefs. It is extremely ironic that the unionist and nationalist sides in Northern Ireland are more like each other than they are like any other culture in Europe.

jh79

Fionn1952 wrote: »

Very few people are completely immune to biasing, it isn't stupidity to be influenced by the phrasing of a question.

Think of polling for a simple question like, 'should we bring back the death penalty' and the sort of numbers you'd expect to see in response to that.

Now take the same sample size and demographics and ask, 'Should someone convicted of multiple cases of rape and murder on minors be considered for Capital Punishment rather than a jail sentence'.

One would infer that everyone who answers no to the first question would also answer no to the second question; we've established they're against the death penalty, so the specific incident shouldn't matter, but I guarantee the second question returns a significantly higher portion of people saying yes. Not stupidity, just the human condition.

Obviously a highly exaggerated example to highlight the point, and I'm in no way suggesting any comparison beyond a demonstration of how phrasing can reflect in polling responses.

I understand that but in this case the pollster asked.....

Would you be in favour or against a united Ireland if it meant ...
*you would have to pay less tax (73%)
*there would be no change in the amount of tax you pay(63%)
*You would have to pay more tax (31%)

Ridiculous to say that is a loaded question.

BonnieSituation

schmittel wrote: »

I would vote for a United Ireland if it meant that the country was united - i.e the six counties and all its inhabitants enjoy equal status, rights, responsibilities and representation as the rest of the country.

If I am asked to change our flag, our anthem, our system of government, our culture etc to accommodate the wishes of a minority of would be citizens I would vote against it.

Does that make me a Partitionist?

Simply, yes it would if that's the point in time we're at.

But it's an atypical and contrary notion surely to try and align yourself with someone, like Blanch, who seemingly wants nothing to do with a UI in any form.

But no one is asking anyone to give up anything yet, so it's a bit odd to jump straight to that conclusion.

Whatever about giving up or changing flags and anthems, I have never heard any discussions around dismantling our system of government or culture at all. Where you think that might raise its head I don't know.

BonnieSituation

blanch152 wrote: »

All states were created with arbitrary lines on maps. The border on this island is actually one of the oldest in Europe, making it one of the most long-lasting.

And we're back to this. Round and round we go it seems.

Bobeagleburger

blanch152 wrote: »

Partition isn't a problem requiring a solution.

The problem is people on both sides in Northern Ireland refusing to find a way to live with one another. As long as some of them keep blaming some arbitrary line on the map as the problem, that will continue. Changing the line on the map won't do anything to change the mindset of both sides in Northern Ireland.

Exactly.

People want a UI without first fixing the issues. It's bizarre, and incredibly naive.

If a UI happened in the short term, we inherit the NI mess from Britain.

First:

1. Fix the sectarian issues as best possible. Maybe a few more decades will soften it. It is definitely not as bad as 30 years ago. Another 30 would make a good difference.
2. Reduce the public service workers.
3. Build up the NI economy, and lower the yearly 10 billion bailout from London.

Then we might be in a position to swoop in and unite the country.

FrancieBrady

schmittel wrote: »

I would vote for a United Ireland if it meant that the country was united - i.e the six counties and all its inhabitants enjoy equal status, rights, responsibilities and representation as the rest of the country.

If I am asked to change our flag, our anthem, our system of government, our culture etc to accommodate the wishes of a minority of would be citizens I would vote against it.

Does that make me a Partitionist?

If you vote for partition or the continuance of it, then you are a partitionist. If you vote for unity then you are an Irish unionist, if you vote for unity with the UK then you are a UK unionist.

Why the fear objection to a simple descriptive word only a peculiar guilt about what you are doing?
For the record I use the word to describe. I am ideologically against partitionism as I am against UK unionism in Ireland. If you see it as being pejorative, that is your issue, you are as entitled to be partitionist as I am to being an Irish unionist.

BonnieSituation

blanch152 wrote: »

The binary sectarian mindsets are uniquely adhered to in Northern Ireland. Nowhere else in Europe do both sides cling to their exclusionary nationalist beliefs. It is extremely ironic that the unionist and nationalist sides in Northern Ireland are more like each other than they are like any other culture in Europe.

And of course, those binary mindsets were created in a vacuum and have nothing at all to do with the imposition of an "arbitrary line"?

BonnieSituation

6 wrote: »

Exactly.

People want a UI without first fixing the issues. It's bizarre, and incredibly naive.

If a UI happened in the short term, we inherit the NI mess from Britain.

First:

1. Fix the sectarian issues as best possible. Maybe a few more decades will soften it. It is definitely not as bad as 30 years ago. Another 30 would make a good difference.
2. Reduce the public service workers.
3. Build up the NI economy, and lower the yearly 10 billion bailout from London.

Then we might be in a position to swoop in and unite the country.

We're back to the absurd solution of partition, for partition.

FrancieBrady

VinLieger wrote: »

Where does the GFA state that?

It doesn't and I never said it does.

I understand it because that is how we have always done referenda. Brexit is a unique case that had nothing to do with how we conduct ours.

blanch152

6 wrote: »

Exactly.

People want a UI without first fixing the issues. It's bizarre, and incredibly naive.

If a UI happened in the short term, we inherit the NI mess from Britain.

First:

1. Fix the sectarian issues as best possible. Maybe a few more decades will soften it. It is definitely not as bad as 30 years ago. Another 30 would make a good difference.
2. Reduce the public service workers.
3. Build up the NI economy, and lower the yearly 10 billion bailout from London.

Then we might be in a position to swoop in and unite the country.

Now that is a more coherent plan for a united Ireland than anything spouted on these pages by anyone claiming to support the idea.

BonnieSituation

VinLieger wrote: »

Where does the GFA state that?

It doesn't.

Good thing we have substantial experience in conducting referenda.

I find it fascinating that the Brexit referendum has wiped clean any memory or experience of referenda in this State before or since June 2016.

BonnieSituation

blanch152 wrote: »

Now that is a more coherent plan for a united Ireland than anything spouted on these pages by anyone claiming to support the idea.

That's your idea of coherent?

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

The binary sectarian mindsets are uniquely adhered to in Northern Ireland. Nowhere else in Europe do both sides cling to their exclusionary nationalist beliefs. It is extremely ironic that the unionist and nationalist sides in Northern Ireland are more like each other than they are like any other culture in Europe.

Why is that do you think blanch?

Might it have something to do with the creation of an arbitary majority with an arbitary line?

Might the imposition of said arbitary line have caused nothing but division and polarisation that is incurable with the continuation of that partition?

What is it about the differences in 'the people' if the above is not the case? Are they as they are, because they are closer to the North Pole, more disposed to division because of too much sun, too many soda farls, exposure to Sainsbury's?

Why are they different to the rest of the people of this island?

VinLieger

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It doesn't and I never said it does.

I understand it because that is how we have always done referenda. Brexit is a unique case that had nothing to do with how we conduct ours.

But we don't have the control over the GFA and when a border poll is to be called that's solely up to the NI secretary and really the UK PM of the day.

And that's the issue I have we might be in the situation where we get a month maybe 2 to discuss this prior to a poll being called which is simply not enough for me to vote yes.

Unless the entire thing is organised and agreed to how a UI will work including time frames etc i cannot see being able to vote anything other than no. Brexit has shown going in blind to such simple binary questions that in reality are far more complex issues is a catastrophic mistake to make.

Seathrun66

tom1ie wrote: »

Maybe they are unaware they will suffer a tax increase, lose the NHS, have larger primary school classes etc etc.

You confuse voters in the Republic with those in the North. No NHS in the south. Please read back.

BonnieSituation

VinLieger wrote: »

But we don't have the control over the GFA and when a border poll is to be called that's solely up to the NI secretary and really the UK PM of the day.

And that's the issue I have we might be in the situation where we get a month maybe 2 to discuss this prior to a poll being called which is simply not enough for me to vote yes.

Unless the entire thing is organised and agreed to how a UI will work including time frames etc i cannot see being able to vote anything other than no. Brexit has shown going in blind to such simple binary questions that in reality are far more complex issues is a catastrophic mistake to make.

Again, why do you think this is the case?

There's no evidence of this being the case.

The SOS can call a poll, but it will have to be agreed between the two States as we have our own constitutional considerations to uphold.

Why you think we'll get a wet weekend to consider this is beyond me.

Seathrun66

jh79 wrote: »

A poll of 1,000 gives a margin of error of 3%, perfectly normal sample size for this sort of thing. Doubling it to 2000 would only bring the margin of error to 2%, 8000 would be needed to get it down to 1%.

https://theconversation.com/a-survey-needs-to-involve-how-many-people-before-im-convinced-96470

Considering support for a UI drops from 70 to 30%, a sample size with a margin of error of 3% isn't an issue.

Given the deficit we are running due to COVID, I'd say a future poll would show even less wiling to accept extra taxes.

Speculation. The previous poll was taken during the recovery period from the last recession. Poll way out of date.

Why not a border poll now and test your theories?

hometruths

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Simply, yes it would if that's the point in time we're at.

But it's an atypical and contrary notion surely to try and align yourself with someone, like Blanch, who seemingly wants nothing to do with a UI in any form.

But no one is asking anyone to give up anything yet, so it's a bit odd to jump straight to that conclusion.

Whatever about giving up or changing flags and anthems, I have never heard any discussions around dismantling our system of government or culture at all. Where you think that might raise its head I don't know.

It's really not just an idea I've constructed to try and align myself with Blanch.

I have heard plenty of discussion of changing system of government on boards.

As I mentioned in previous posts I think it would raise its head to appease Unionists. Some sort of all Ireland powersharing arrangement.

And even if government and culture did not even enter discussion, I'd still vote against it if it meant changing the flag or anthem.

As VinLieger says if you're ready to scrap two of the most important symbols of your national identity, you're not much of a nationalist. In my opinion.

FrancieBrady

VinLieger wrote: »

But we don't have the control over the GFA and when a border poll is to be called that's solely up to the NI secretary and really the UK PM of the day.

And that's the issue I have we might be in the situation where we get a month maybe 2 to discuss this prior to a poll being called which is simply not enough for me to vote yes.

Unless the entire thing is organised and agreed to how a UI will work including time frames etc i cannot see being able to vote anything other than no. Brexit has shown going in blind to such simple binary questions that in reality are far more complex issues is a catastrophic mistake to make.

We can start to plan and discuss when we want. We will not be going into a Border Poll without a white paper from the government of the day.
The Scottish Independence referendum is the example you should be looking at not Brexit. Called in 2012 and held in 2014.

What I imagine will happen is that, like Scotland, all those in favour, (at the moment all political parties in the south) will come together in a Yes Irish Unity campaign, much like the Yes Scotland campaign.

Seathrun66

VinLieger wrote: »

Jesus did you even read my post? Im not saying we base decisions off the poll but polling will shows where peoples concerns are and if one of them is tax and cost then that's where politicians need to start answering questions on.


You are the one seemingly afraid of the proper discussion also as others pointed out the GFA doesn't legally guarantee any discussion which sorely needs to be had on a national level on both sides of the border before any border poll is had or we will end up in the same situation brexit did.

Agreed but we need to see polling on that which isn't from pre-Brexit 2015 and questions a substantial group of people.

Hamsterchops

[/B]

tom1ie wrote: »

Maybe they are unaware they will suffer a tax increase, lose the NHS, have larger primary school classes etc etc.

Lose the NHS, the BBC, free GP visits, free Dentist visits too. They'll also need to brace themselves for massive insurance hikes - across the board.

But if they vote to leave the UK, then they will leave to UK and become one with us here in the ROI.

Simples.

eire4

schmittel wrote: »

It's really not just an idea I've constructed to try and align myself with Blanch.

I have heard plenty of discussion of changing system of government on boards.

As I mentioned in previous posts I think it would raise its head to appease Unionists. Some sort of all Ireland powersharing arrangement.

And even if government and culture did not even enter discussion, I'd still vote against it if it meant changing the flag or anthem.

As VinLieger says if you're ready to scrap two of the most important symbols of your national identity, you're not much of a nationalist. In my opinion.

I actually am very much in favour of a new national anthem regardless. Not really a fan of such a warlike national anthem as we currently have. Would prefer something more uplifting and positive but that is just me. I have no problem with looking at the flag either. There is no great long history for the tricolour. Personally I have always preferred the 4 provinces flag.

BonnieSituation

schmittel wrote: »

It's really not just an idea I've constructed to try and align myself with Blanch.

I have heard plenty of discussion of changing system of government on boards.

As I mentioned in previous posts I think it would raise its head to appease Unionists. Some sort of all Ireland powersharing arrangement.

And even if government and culture did not even enter discussion, I'd still vote against it if it meant changing the flag or anthem.

As VinLieger says if you're ready to scrap two of the most important symbols of your national identity, you're not much of a nationalist. In my opinion.

Those discussions about appeasing unionism tend to be from those who want to show off their "mature politics" bona fides.

I'd be loath to change the flag or anthem, but if that's all that stood between us today and a UI, then I think it changes the discussion as to what's important to a Nationalist.

I have been consistent across the threads on this subject about how unwilling I am to changing anything to try to appease belligerent unionism and that still stands.

eire4

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Those discussions about appeasing unionism tend to be from those who want to show off their "mature politics" bona fides.

I'd be loath to change the flag or anthem, but if that's all that stood between us today and a UI, then I think it changes the discussion as to what's important to a Nationalist.

All I can say for me the flag and national anthem have nothing to do with "proving" anything to anybody. I have never been a big fan of our national anthem regardless of reunification and would happily see it changed to something that was more positively related to our culture rather then war. The flag again for me I have always preferred the 4 provinces flag over the tricolour anyway regardless of reunification. But beyond my own purely personal preferences I think gestures do matter. So looking at a new flag and anthem I think is a good idea.

VinLieger

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Again, why do you think this is the case?

There's no evidence of this being the case.

The SOS can call a poll, but it will have to be agreed between the two States as we have our own constitutional considerations to uphold.

Why you think we'll get a wet weekend to consider this is beyond me.

Because after 6 years of the Brexit omnishambles and perfidious albion attitude I don't trust Westminster under the Tories and i don't see Labour winning a majority anytime soon so if we are going to do a border poll in the near future it will likely be under a Tory Government who cannot be trusted.

Seathrun66

blanch152 wrote: »

The binary sectarian mindsets are uniquely adhered to in Northern Ireland. Nowhere else in Europe do both sides cling to their exclusionary nationalist beliefs. .

When discussing Irish reunification you pointed to the failure of German reunification.
Yet you are unable to elaborate on where you believe Germany has not succeeded.

It's seemingly indicative of a partitionist's inability to follow through with any tangible argument.

VinLieger

FrancieBrady wrote: »

We can start to plan and discuss when we want. We will not be going into a Border Poll without a white paper from the government of the day.
The Scottish Independence referendum is the example you should be looking at not Brexit. Called in 2012 and held in 2014.

What I imagine will happen is that, like Scotland, all those in favour, (at the moment all political parties in the south) will come together in a Yes Irish Unity campaign, much like the Yes Scotland campaign.

While the Scotland Indy ref is a good example of what a border poll timeframe needs to be the ultimate result of a positive Indy Ref 2 would be far far different versus a UI border Poll and again why I think we need a decently laid out white paper as you put it prior to any poll.

Seathrun66

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Those discussions about appeasing unionism tend to be from those who want to show off their "mature politics" bona fides.

I'd be loath to change the flag or anthem, but if that's all that stood between us today and a UI, then I think it changes the discussion as to what's important to a Nationalist.

I have been consistent across the threads on this subject about how unwilling I am to changing anything to try to appease belligerent unionism and that still stands.

I understand your stance but I don't see a flag or anthem change as appeasing Unionists (many will never be placated) but as an agreed change for a shared island. We cannot use the Tricolour in the same way as we cannot adopt the Union Jack as a flag of a united country. We are not taking over a country. It is not colonisation. We will be joining together with them.

tom1ie

BonnieSituation wrote: »

You're a gas man.

Ok.