United Ireland Poll - please vote

FrancieBrady

Poll of polls showing the speed of travel. A Border Poll inside 5 years would be the guess based on this?

Junkyard Tom

In a few years we could have a SF led government in the south, SF first Minster in the north, the Brits looking to save money on the Brexit disaster and an effective all-Ireland economy within the EU.

We need to plan for a poll and pro-UI vote with a bit more vigour.

FrancieBrady

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

In a few years we could have a SF led government in the south, SF first Minster in the north, the Brits looking to save money on the Brexit disaster and an effective all-Ireland economy within the EU.

We need to plan for a poll and pro-UI vote with a bit more vigour.

Yes, totally agree, gone beyond the point where excuses for not planning properly are redundant.

I have always believed that a border poll will come when Dublin gives the nod, and that will be part of the deal if SF enters government in any capacity.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Poll of polls showing the speed of travel. A Border Poll inside 5 years would be the guess based on this?

We know from the polls there is a strong correlation between the type of Brexit and support for a UI. If the moment of goods between NI and the UK is sorted the gap will widen again.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

We know from the polls there is a strong correlation between the type of Brexit and support for a UI. If the moment of goods between NI and the UK is sorted the gap will widen again.

There were no issues with the movement of goods until January jh69. Yet the trend is ever upward on that poll of polls since mid 2014.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Yes, totally agree, gone beyond the point where excuses for not planning properly are redundant.

I have always believed that a border poll will come when Dublin gives the nod, and that will be part of the deal if SF enters government in any capacity.

I agree and believe irrespective of support in NI, the SoS won't call one until they get the nod from Dublin and that will depend on our ability to pay for it.

With us 46bn down due to COVID, we are way off that point even if Brexit increases support for a UI in NI.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

I agree and believe irrespective of support in NI, the SoS won't call one until they get the nod from Dublin and that will depend on our ability to pay for it.

With us 46bn down due to COVID, we are way off that point even if Brexit increases support for a UI in NI.

But we are economically sound jh69. According to the government we have an 'EU beating economic growth rate'.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

There were no issues with the movement of goods until January jh69. Yet the trend is ever upward on that poll of polls since mid 2014.

In the polls there was a majority in favour of a UI in the event of a hard brexit. UI was in the minority for a soft Brexit.

The two are strongly linked, I think any meaningful prediction needs to wait and see what the true effects of Brexit are on the NI/UK economic relationship.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

In the polls there was a majority in favour of a UI in the event of a hard brexit. UI was in the minority for a soft Brexit.

The two are strongly linked, I think any meaningful prediction needs to wait and see what the true effects of Brexit are on the NI/UK economic relationship.

Ever upward since mid 2014 jh69, whenever you are ready to address that.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

But we are economically sound jh69. According to the government we have an 'EU beating economic growth rate'.

Which means we can pay our debts but unification will dilute that ability to pay our debts and significantly so due to NI poor GDP and large deficits (20-30% of GDP )

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

Which means we can pay our debts but unification will dilute that ability to pay our debts and significantly so due to NI poor GDP and large deficits (20-30% of GDP )

did you miss the word 'growth' in there jh79? Are you being selective in what you want to address and just indulging in scaremongering perhaps?

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

There were no issues with the movement of goods until January jh69. Yet the trend is ever upward on that poll of polls since mid 2014.

Brexit vote was in 2016 and the rate increases after that.

Fionn1952

jh79 wrote: »

We know from the polls there is a strong correlation between the type of Brexit and support for a UI. If the moment of goods between NI and the UK is sorted the gap will widen again.

And if (as they've been at pains to keep their options to do so open), Britain diverges from the EU with regards to phytosanitary regulations and the movement of goods between GB and NI doesn't go back to normal?

Or if folk in the North have got used to the new supply chains they've organised across the border here and after the initial inconvenience, don't want to go through rejigging those supply chains all over again?

As an aside, some would take great offense at stating trade between NI and the UK; at present NI is part of the UK. Maybe you're a deep cover Republican after all!

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

did you miss the word 'growth' in there jh79? Are you being selective in what you want to address and just indulging in scaremongering perhaps?

Sorry not understanding your point.

Are you saying because we have good growth that the 46bn deficit due to COVID isn't significant?

jh79

Fionn1952 wrote: »

And if (as they've been at pains to keep their options to do so open), Britain diverges from the EU with regards to phytosanitary regulations and the movement of goods between GB and NI doesn't go back to normal?

Or if folk in the North have got used to the new supply chains they've organised across the border here and after the initial inconvenience, don't want to go through rejigging those supply chains all over again?

As an aside, some would take great offense at stating trade between NI and the UK; at present NI is part of the UK. Maybe you're a deep cover Republican after all!

Yes, based on the opinion polls it looks like the majority in NI what the best of both worlds but favour the EU over the UK.

Just think any predictions on a Border poll lack meaning until the dust settles on the protocol.

I'm a Republican and happily live in a Republic. Not an insecure one so don't watch my language in case I upset the types that only use terms like "Free State" etc.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

Sorry not understanding your point.

Are you saying because we have good growth that the 46bn deficit due to COVID isn't significant?

You were the one who said it is.

Our government said the economy is in good health.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

Yes, based on the opinion polls it looks like the majority in NI what the best of both worlds but favour the EU over the UK.

Just think any predictions on a Border poll lack meaning until the dust settles on the protocol.

I'm a Republican and happily live in a Republic. Not an insecure one so don't watch my language in case I upset the types that only use terms like "Free State" etc.

Despite great talk of the EU compromising the latest word from them is that the Protocol is remaining.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

You were the one who said it is.

Our government said the economy is in good health.

We still have a 46bn deficit, that money and the associated interest needs t be found. Unification would significantly reduce our GDP per capita and therefore our ability to service our debts.

Even the fanciful claims made by SF on the benefits of unification wouldn't bring our GDP per capita back to pre-unification levels.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Despite great talk of the EU compromising the latest word from them is that the Protocol is remaining.

This is the bit I struggle with. The protocol is better for the NI economy and makes a UI less likely but Unionist are against it.

Give it a year and things will be a lot clearer form a NI perspective.

Same for the Republic, it won't be long now till we have a true idea of the costs involved. That will have a major impact. The financial implications are huge for the Republic, that much is obvious from the GDP per capita of NI.

Bobeagleburger

jh79 wrote: »

We still have a 46bn deficit, that money and the associated interest needs t be found. Unification would significantly reduce our GDP per capita and therefore our ability to service our debts.

Even the fanciful claims made by SF on the benefits of unification wouldn't bring our GDP per capita back to pre-unification levels.

The SF Finance Minister does seem to be a bit of a spoofer with actual finance. The detail of those 'alternative' budgets are always almost amatuer like. I know it's an opposition budget and playing to a certain audience, but they wouldn't stack up in the real world.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

We still have a 46bn deficit, that money and the associated interest needs t be found. Unification would significantly reduce our GDP per capita and therefore our ability to service our debts.

Even the fanciful claims made by SF on the benefits of unification wouldn't bring our GDP per capita back to pre-unification levels.

The US has a national debt of 22 trillion dollars while the UK has one of £1,876.8 billion.
Neither have stopped investing in it's future.

Junkyard Tom

The UK's debt-to-GDP ratio was 250% when they rebuilt Britain and created the NHS.

jh79 wrote: »

I'm a Republican

Not sure what type of Republican you are but an Irish Republican you most definitely are not.

Bobeagleburger

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The US has a national debt of 22 trillion dollars while the UK has one of £1,876.8 billion.
Neither have stopped investing in it's future.

Using the biggest and 5th biggest economies in the world as examples :rolleyes:

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

This is the bit I struggle with. The protocol is better for the NI economy and makes a UI less likely but Unionist are against it.

Give it a year and things will be a lot clearer form a NI perspective.

Same for the Republic, it won't be long now till we have a true idea of the costs involved. That will have a major impact. The financial implications are huge for the Republic, that much is obvious from the GDP per capita of NI.

The Protocol is still a barrier. Northern Ireland will not return to how it was before Brexit. It is losing out in many ways and is running harder and harder stand still.
If Britain diverges further it will take increased running for them to keep up, and as we have seen, instability there will hold us back too..IMO that is what will continue to drive those numbers up in the polls.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The US has a national debt of 22 trillion dollars while the UK has one of £1,876.8 billion.
Neither have stopped investing in it's future.

Should really give the figure per capita both are huge countries compared to Ireland.

During the crash, the level of debt became secondary to the size of the deficits we were running. Bigger the deficits the lower our credit rating and the higher our interest repayments.

Bobeagleburger

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Not sure what type of Republican you are but an Irish Republican you most definitely are not.

People are Republicans but also have economic sense too.

Not all Republicans want a UI at any cost...

FrancieBrady

6 wrote: »

Using the biggest and 5th biggest economies in the world as examples :rolleyes:

Yes, but also illustrating that national debt is not an inhibitor to investment if it is under control.
That's what Pascal will tell you when it suits him to tell you that.

Fionn1952

jh79 wrote: »

I'm a Republican and happily live in a Republic. Not an insecure one so don't watch my language in case I upset the types that only use terms like "Free State" etc.

You'll take the phrase Free State from my cold, dead hands.

It is by a mile the best way to criticise your vastly inferior Free Stayto.

Jokes aside, defending the incorrect use of language by insinuating that anyone who corrects you is insecure is a bit weak. Some people may be overly attached to certain phraseology (I'm guilty of habitually saying the North myself), but referring to it as UK-NI trade is objectively incorrect; it is GB-NI trade.

jh79

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

The UK's debt-to-GDP ratio was 250% when they rebuilt Britain and created the NHS.



Not sure what type of Republican you are but an Irish Republican you most definitely are not.

I was born in Ireland and live in a Republic and am happy to go a long whatever the majority in Ireland/NI want.

If your definition of an Irish Republican is someone who plants bombs in shopping centers then I'm glad I'm not one.

jh79

Fionn1952 wrote: »

You'll take the phrase Free State from my cold, dead hands.

It is by a mile the best way to criticise your vastly inferior Free Stayto.

Jokes aside, defending the incorrect use of language by insinuating that anyone who corrects you is insecure is a bit weak. Some people may be overly attached to certain phraseology (I'm guilty of habitually saying the North myself), but referring to it as UK-NI trade is objectively incorrect; it is GB-NI trade.

Well if it is out of habit that is different.

It's sad that a party like SF, support the GFA which recognizes NI as part of the UK, work for the British state themselves , have TD's in the Dail yet still use the term "Free State".

Do they think it cancels out all the compromises they have made?