United Ireland Poll - please vote

FrancieBrady

Marine Layer wrote: »

It's just a simple stative verb, not past tense
Obviously we both know there's been no vote on a UI, that's implicit
The job of work is still there to persuade these people not to be leeched from the yes camp or indeed to be persuaded into it.

Good on you. That's that cleared up.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Plenty of grist to be thrown into the economic mill yet. Too many 'opinions' and not enough fact.

The discussion is not going away because of one poll and leading questions. We need to look very closely at the realities and come up with a plan/proposal.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/northern-ireland-s-9-4bn-subvention-and-the-cost-of-irish-unity-1.4553553

Again, the subvention is just the deficit NI runs, the big cost is the investment required to get the economy functioning properly.

Estimate today in the Indo of either doubling USC or increasing the standard rate to 28%. Whether the subvention is 2 or 5 bn isn't gonna have much of an effect on the cost.

The discussion is not going away but at the moment it looks like the discussion will be how do we convince voters in the Republic that it is worth paying for.

Not easy considering all the "benefits" are only for NI.

Eric Cartman

jh79 wrote: »

Again, the subvention is just the deficit NI runs, the big cost is the investment required to get the economy functioning properly.

Estimate today in the Indo of either doubling USC or increasing the standard rate to 28%. Whether the subvention is 2 or 5 bn isn't gonna have much of an effect on the cost.

The discussion is not going away but at the moment it looks like the discussion will be how to we convince voters in the Republic that it is worth paying for.

Not easy considering all the "benefits" are only for NI.

Id literally rather marry arlene and hand Ireland back to the queen in person than watch either of those two things happen.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

Again, the subvention is just the deficit NI runs, the big cost is the investment required to get the economy functioning properly.

Estimate today in the Indo of either doubling USC or increasing the standard rate to 28%. Whether the subvention is 2 or 5 bn isn't gonna have much of an effect on the cost.

The discussion is not going away but at the moment it looks like the discussion will be how to we convince voters in the Republic that it is worth paying for.

Not easy considering all the "benefits" are only for NI.

Last sentence is the rubbish partitionists spout. A northern Ireland integrated and contributing is a benefit...a massive one. Just because you are happy ignoring it does not mean it wouldn't be.

Never heard such rubbish tbh. And it is rubbish spouted in the face of it being shown that the costs may not be the big scary figures you love throwing about.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Last sentence is the rubbish partitionists spout. A northern Ireland integrated and contributing is a benefit...a massive one. Just because you are happy ignoring it does not mean it wouldn't be.

Never heard such rubbish tbh. And it is rubbish spouted in the face of it being shown that the costs maybe not be the big scary figures you love throwing about.

8% increase in taxes is significant.

So what benefits would there be within the 26 counties? It's only a benefit if the increased revenue surpasses per capita levels prior to unification.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

8% increase in taxes is significant.

So what benefits would there be within the 26 counties? It's only a benefit if the increased revenue surpasses per capita levels prior to unification.

People are guessing jh79

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

People are guessing jh79

Economics is more than just guessing. Not knowing the breakdown of the subvention does not prevent Economist predicting how much would be needed to increase the GDP of NI.

Can you explain why Hubner could predict using the exact same numbers what benefits a UI could bring but other can't predict what tax increases would be needed to achieve these benefits?

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

Economics is more than just guessing. Not knowing the breakdown of the subvention does not prevent Economist predicting how much would be needed to increase the GDP of NI.

Can you explain why Hubner could predict using the exact same numbers what benefits a UI could bring but other can't predict what tax increases would be needed to achieve these benefits?

Both are selectively picking and choosing.

Morgentroth and Fitzgerald had a completely different take than this next report from Doyle - out of the same University.

None of these figures are written in stone.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Both are selectively picking and choosing.

Morgentroth and Fitzgerald had a completely different take than this next report from Doyle - out of the same University.

None of these figures are written in stone.

So the benefits claimed by Hubner are just guesswork too?

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

So the benefits claimed by Hubner are just guesswork too?

Absolutely...and with an agenda. They all are in one way or another. There are discussion points in them all. But there is nothing conclusive in them until an actual plan is formulated and costed.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Absolutely...and with an agenda. They all are in one way or another. There are discussion points in them all. But there is nothing conclusive in them until an actual plan is formulated and costed.

But the plan will be guesswork too as it will be assessed using the exact same data.

Also there won't be a single plan. Each party will have its own ideas on what is required.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

But the plan will be guesswork too as it will be assessed using the exact same data.

Also there won't be a single plan. Each party will have its own ideas on what is required.

The Irish government will be proposing the plan. It isnt going to be a lucky dip with 4 or 5 plan.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The Irish government will be proposing the plan. It isnt going to be a lucky dip with 4 or 5 plan.

And they could lose power and the next party will want to do it their way.

People will be looking at a number of plans and will be basing their decisions on a range of estimated costs. ERSI will produce another one outside of the parties too.

It will be no different to the budget with each party giving their alternative version.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

And they could lose power and the next party will want to do it their way.

People will be looking at a number of plans and will be basing their decisions on a range of estimated costs. ERSI will produce another one outside of the parties too.

It will be no different to the budget with each party giving their alternative version.

There will be a proposal as there is with any referendum. The government of the day will be the 'proposers' and will, as was done in Scotland present a white paper on what it means.
That will be arrived at by all party committee work and a citizens assembly I would imagine.

As we constitutionally aspire to unity I would expect a fair bit of common ground.

What certainly won't happen is 4 or 5 plans being put in front of the electorate and them being asked to pick one. That is a ridiculous suggestion.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

There will be a proposal as there is with any referendum. The government of the day will be the 'proposers' and will, as was done in Scotland present a white paper on what it means.
That will be arrived at by all party committee work and a citizens assembly I would imagine.

As we constitutionally aspire to unity I would expect a fair bit of common ground.

What certainly won't happen is 4 or 5 plans being put in front of the electorate and them being asked to pick one. That is a ridiculous suggestion.

The financial side will differ by party and change with each government and will evolve with the new economy either good or bad.

There is no perfect white paper guaranteed to work. We will be voting based on a load of predicted outcomes from various sources.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

The financial side will differ by party and change with each government and will evolve with the new economy either good or bad.

There is no perfect white paper guaranteed to work. We will be voting based on a load of predicted outcomes from various sources.

Change after a UI? Yes, of course it is, to deal with unforeseen circumstances.

You will be voting on whatever you think of the White paper and plan. Whether other predictions influence that vote is moot.
It will be yay or nay to the Irish governments proposal.

sebdavis

jh79 wrote: »

Again, the subvention is just the deficit NI runs, the big cost is the investment required to get the economy functioning properly.

Estimate today in the Indo of either doubling USC or increasing the standard rate to 28%. Whether the subvention is 2 or 5 bn isn't gonna have much of an effect on the cost.

The discussion is not going away but at the moment it looks like the discussion will be how do we convince voters in the Republic that it is worth paying for.

Not easy considering all the "benefits" are only for NI.

Instead of hitting the worker again they should spread the cost over everyone
Social welfare for unemployed should be reduced
Childrens allowance put a cap on
Change to eviction laws to bring in the Northern Ireland system
County Councils to take rent from source

All as part of a United Ireland business case. Make those changes and take a poll, lets see what percentage wants it then

Marco23d

The biggest reason the Irish government are opposed to a untied Ireland "until we sort everything out" is because they know it will mean great things for Sinn Fein all those votes from the North will now be at one with all their votes in the south.

sebdavis

Marco23d wrote: »

The biggest reason the Irish government are opposed to a untied Ireland "until we sort everything out" is because they know it will mean great things for Sinn Fein all those votes from the North will now be at one with all their votes in the south.

Really?
Why would people in the North automatically vote for Sinn Fein if they have other options?

Yes of course you will have the hard line Sinn Fein supporters similar to the ones you have in Republic, but you will also have loads who might align with other parties who are only in the Republic at the moment. It is not like Sinn fein are a well run competent party, they are trying to go head to head with the government for having a disaster after a disaster

FrancieBrady

sebdavis wrote: »

Really?
Why would people in the North automatically vote for Sinn Fein if they have other options?

Yes of course you will have the hard line Sinn Fein supporters similar to the ones you have in Republic, but you will also have loads who might align with other parties who are only in the Republic at the moment. It is not like Sinn fein are a well run competent party, they are trying to go head to head with the government for having a disaster after a disaster

You are correct, there is no guaranteed majority for SF...ever, but wait until you see the campaign for a UI. There will be people scaremongering like Unionists will do in the next election in the north...vote for us(or against a UI) or the Shinners will get in.

Junkyard Tom

The simple majority in the GFA is Irish and UK law and is an international treaty that brought a 30 year conflict to an end.

What gobshite would end their political career by trying to make a Partitionist/Unionist vote worth more than the vote of any other individual? No chance, not happening, ever.

The desperation to move the goalposts is quite funny.

jh79

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

The simple majority in the GFA is Irish and UK law and is an international treaty that brought a 30 year conflict to an end.

What gobshite would end their political career by trying to make a Partitionist/Unionist vote worth more than the vote of any other individual? No chance, not happening, ever.

The desperation to move the goalposts is quite funny.

But it's the general public saying this not the politicians. If the poll happens in NI first, the result will influence the vote here significantly based on that opinion poll. Even if the polls are on the same day, opinion polls in the lead up to it will give us a fair idea of the likely majority.

Like it or not based on the centenary poll the size of the majority will influence the vote in the Republic.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

But it's the general public saying this not the politicians. If the poll happens in NI first, the result will influence the vote here significantly based on that opinion poll. Even if the polls are on the same day, opinion polls in the lead up to it will give us a fair idea of the likely majority.

Like it or not based on the centenary poll the size of the majority will influence the vote in the Republic.

Again, the public are looking into a void, they have no idea what a UI will look like.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Again, the public are looking into a void, they have no idea what a UI will look like.

I was referring to the poll saying a majority of at least 2/3 would be needed for both sides to accept the result.

On the financial side, given the poor showings in the poll we are gonna get a Prime Time special on the costs soon i'd say. Unless we get a benefactor can't see much improvement on 22%. Big gap to close

breatheme

jh79 wrote: »

Even if the polls are on the same day, opinion polls in the lead up to it will give us a fair idea of the likely majority.

I don't think it makes sense to have both polls on the same day, though. If it doesn't pass in NI, then RoI just had a poll for no reason, and with all the expenses that it incurs.

jh79

breatheme wrote: »

I don't think it makes sense to have both polls on the same day, though. If it doesn't pass in NI, then RoI just had a poll for no reason, and with all the expenses that it incurs.

I reckon there will only be a poll if both countries are confident it would pass. Even if a majority want it in NI a poll won't happen if the Republic still refuses to pay for it.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

I was referring to the poll saying a majority of at least 2/3 would be needed for both sides to accept the result.

On the financial side, given the poor showings in the poll we are gonna get a Prime Time special on the costs soon i'd say. Unless we get a benefactor can't see much improvement on 22%. Big gap to close

I think the next move will be a citizens assembly...that's where a real examination will happen and will be pivotal as previous CA'a have been.

A lot of the fear will disappear IMO. Especially if moderate unionism can be persuaded to take part, which I think is the next step after political Unionism finishes fracturing and imploding.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I think the next move will be a citizens assembly...that's where a real examination will happen and will be pivotal as previous CA'a have been.

A lot of the fear will disappear IMO. Especially if moderate unionism can be persuaded to take part, which I think is the next step after political Unionism finishes fracturing and imploding.

I know feck all about unionism but the polls show only a tiny % of Protestants willing to vote for a UI. A lot less than Catholics wanting to stay in the UK.

Can't see how the implosion of the DUP helps. People might vote for Long's party for Stormont but still vote no in a border poll.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

I know feck all about unionism but the polls show only a tiny % of Protestants willing to vote for a UI. A lot less than Catholics wanting to stay in the UK.

Can't see how the implosion of the DUP helps. People might vote for Long's party for Stormont but still vote no in a border poll.

Long's party have no issue with the Unity Unit so I can't see them having issue with a citizens assembly.

Dyr

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Long's party have no issue with the Unity Unit so I can't see them having issue with a citizens assembly.

What point would there be in a citizens assembly?

All they are is a PR excercise. A group that is hand picked to parrot the party line of those that picked them