United Ireland Poll - please vote

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Long's party have no issue with the Unity Unit so I can't see them having issue with a citizens assembly.

Just meant that a vote for a more progressive party might not lead to a positive vote in a border poll. SF are the biggest in the Republic yet support for a UI isn't growing with them.

FrancieBrady

Bambi wrote: »

What point would there be in a citizens assembly?

All they are is a PR excercise. A group that is hand picked to parrot the party line of those that picked them

Take a closer look Bambi, they are not the be all and end all but they have served a purpose in allaying fears and reaching consensus.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/22/irish-readers-citizens-assembly-worked-brexit

blanch152

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

The simple majority in the GFA is Irish and UK law and is an international treaty that brought a 30 year conflict to an end.

What gobshite would end their political career by trying to make a Partitionist/Unionist vote worth more than the vote of any other individual? No chance, not happening, ever.

The desperation to move the goalposts is quite funny.

Well, according to the opinion polls, the vast majority of people North and South want a super-majority for a united Ireland, so you must consider most Irish people to be gobsh!tes.

joseywhales

I agree with francie that these polls are kind of meaningless without an actual proposed plan. We are just polling people on their own fantasies of what a UI would mean. I also wonder what would happen to sinn fein after a UI, like why would they exist anymore? Perhaps they would become the new socialist party. Regarding the costs, anyone familiar with investment, would understand that long term a UI should pay off and therefore funding for such a project should not be too expensive. Unless the earth and the people are salted to an extent that nothing can grow there ever.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Well, according to the opinion polls, the vast majority of people North and South want a super-majority for a united Ireland, so you must consider most Irish people to be gobsh!tes.

Slightly more difficult to do that politically and retain a veneer of democracy.

FrancieBrady

joseywhales wrote: »

I agree with francie that these polls are kind of meaningless without an actual proposed plan. We are just polling people on their own fantasies of what a UI would mean. I also wonder what would happen to sinn fein after a UI, like why would they exist anymore? Perhaps they would become the new socialist party. Regarding the costs, anyone familiar with investment, would understand that long term a UI should pay off and therefore funding for such a project should not be too expensive. Unless the earth and the people are salted to an extent that nothing can grow there ever.

John Doyle's paper will be published soon and will reset the economic argument.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/northern-ireland-s-9-4bn-subvention-and-the-cost-of-irish-unity-1.4553553

He will silence those fond of the big scary numbers.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

John Doyle's paper will be published soon and will reset the economic argument.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/northern-ireland-s-9-4bn-subvention-and-the-cost-of-irish-unity-1.4553553

He will silence those fond of the big scary numbers.

Hard to tell from the article. Is the paper only about the subvention? We all know the real cost is getting NI's GDP to normal levels.

Fitzgerald from the ERSI has one on the way too.

Dyr

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Take a closer look Bambi, they are not the be all and end all but they have served a purpose in allaying fears and reaching consensus.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/22/irish-readers-citizens-assembly-worked-brexit

When did the Citizens Assembly in this country make a recommendation that was not in line with the Governments thinking?

All they are is a kite flying excercise for the government.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

Hard to tell from the article. Is the paper only about the subvention? We all know the real cost is getting NI's GDP to normal levels.

Fitzgerald from the ERSI has one on the way too.

Follow him on Twitter, he has included thoughts on the cost going forward.

FrancieBrady

Bambi wrote: »

When did the Citizens Assembly in this country make a recommendation that was not in line with the Governments thinking?

All they are is a kite flying excercise for the government.

Cynical and possibly correct but it's undeniable that they changed a lot of thinking. How do you propose coming up with a plan that represents what people want?

jh79

https://twitter.com/JohnDoyleDCU/status/1389177329860108288?s=19

Looks like it's the true cost

Dyr

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Cynical and possibly correct but it's undeniable that they changed a lot of thinking. How do you propose coming up with a plan that represents what people want?

We have these things called referenda which generally work, once the government dont decide that they should get two bites at the cherry.

FrancieBrady

Bambi wrote: »

We have these things called referenda which generally work, once the government dont decide that they should get two bites at the cherry.

A citizens assembly doesn't actually decide anything Bambi, you do know that?

It is just another function of a democracy to air views, suggest reforms/direction of travel etc.

Dyr

FrancieBrady wrote: »

A citizens assembly doesn't actually decide anything Bambi, you do know that?

It is just another function of a democracy to air views, suggest reforms/direction of travel etc.

Like I said, they're a PR excercise, a kite flying operation. Democracies work fine without Citizens Assemblies.

Name me one recommendation that the Citizens Assembly has made that flies in the face of government policy? They're supposed to be representative of the electorate so that must mean we're all happy with the Governments direction of travel

Junkyard Tom

The north is not the GDR. The GDR's economy completely diverged from West Germany for decades under an entirely different socioeconomic system. The north has been in the same trade federation (the EU) as the rest of the country for decades and only slightly diverged less than six months ago.

The north/Ulster has everything in place to perform just as well as Munster when the economy comes under one authority.

FrancieBrady

Bambi wrote: »

Like I said, they're a PR excercise, a kite flying operation. Democracies work fine without Citizens Assemblies.

Name me one recommendation that the Citizens Assembly has made that flies in the face of government policy? They're supposed to be representative of the electorate so that must mean we're all happy with the Governments direction of travel

Our present Tanaiste was a member of the government that vehemently opposed Same Sex legislation before a citizens assembly recommended a referendum...same with Abortion legislation.

Both referenda changed direction of travel quite significantly IMO anyway.

Dyr

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Our present Tanaiste was a member of the government that vehemently opposed Same Sex legislation before a citizens assembly recommended a referendum...same with Abortion legislation.

Both referenda changed direction of travel quite significantly IMO anyway.

All due respect you're talking out of your hoop

The referendum on same sex marriage happened in 2015 and Fine Gael were fully in favour of same sex marriage by then, having seen which way the wind was blowing.

The Citizens Assembly didnt exist until 2016, you're thinking of consitutional assembly, another kite flying wheeze by Fine Gael that they ****canned when they didnt like some of the suggestions. Citizens Assembly is the new and improved version, it's kept nicely in line with the governments thinking.

Nice piece from Fionnan Sheehan in the Indo today interviewing Heather Humphreys, a Presbyterian cabinet minister in the Republic's government and a proud Ulster woman on the topic, here's a little bit of it

She's a practising Presbyterian whose faith is important to her. She hails from the Republic's most Protestant village. She works in an office that overlooks Trinity College Dublin, the university traditionally associated with the Protestant community.

Most of all though, Heather Humphreys puts her toaster in the press - the phenomenon highlighted in Derry Girls.

"Derry Girls is a great show. They had a list: 'What's the difference between Protestants and Catholics?' And one of the differences was Protestants keep their toasters in the press and Catholics don't. And I never knew that, until I said to some of the people I work with: 'Where do you keep your toaster?' 'On the bench [counter top].' I says, 'I put mine in the press',” she says.

"I think, in a lovely way, it just outlines the subtle differences. Derry Girls are right.”

The new acting Justice Minister is better qualified than most to understand the concerns of unionists in the crisis caused by Brexit, the Irish Sea border and the push for Scottish independence.

Her grandfather, Robert James Stewart, a Presbyterian from Drum in Co Monaghan, signed the Ulster covenant in 1912, which sought to maintain the union with the UK and was a stepping stone towards the partition of Northern Ireland on this day 100 years ago. She grew up in the house with her grandparents.

"I'm sure if he were alive today, he would be proud and probably never would have thought in his wildest dreams that he would end up with a granddaughter serving in the Irish Government,” she says in an interview with the Irish Independent.

Ms Humphreys says she understand the concerns of unionists.

"I want to reassure them that I am the product of a country that has given me every opportunity as somebody that was born, reared, educated here. My religion has never stopped me or impeded me in any way.

"But of course, there's no point in saying, you do get casual sectarianism on social media,” she says.

"We have come a long way from the Ireland I grew up in,” she added.

"When I see unionists in the North, I say: 'You have nothing to fear from us.' Brexit and the protocol has caused a lot of concern and a lot of angst and I think it is incumbent on us to reassure them.”

The Fine Gael minister says the discussion on a united Ireland can mean many things to many people.

blanch152

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

The north is not the GDR. The GDR's economy completely diverged from West Germany for decades under an entirely different socioeconomic system. The north has been in the same trade federation (the EU) as the rest of the country for decades and only slightly diverged less than six months ago.

The north/Ulster has everything in place to perform just as well as Munster when the economy comes under one authority.

The North has been separate for 100 years, nearly three times the amount of time that Germany was separate. There are more than economic divergences at play.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Long's party have no issue with the Unity Unit so I can't see them having issue with a citizens assembly.

I don't know about that. Quite correctly, they want the North to sort out their own internal problems before addressing any constitutional issues.

Suspect that they would want a Northern Ireland citizens assembly to address some of the domestic problems first.

StupidLikeAFox

FrancieBrady wrote: »

John Doyle's paper will be published soon and will reset the economic argument.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/northern-ireland-s-9-4bn-subvention-and-the-cost-of-irish-unity-1.4553553

He will silence those fond of the big scary numbers.

I mean he is putting the cost at around 2bn. Sinn fein put it at a higher value than that in their own costings - its a lot less than the 11bn that is thrown around but 2bn per year is not insignificant.

Thats the size of a national broadband plan or a children's hospital that we have to outlay, every year, just to keep the lights on - that'll be a hard sell surely?

Economics101

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

The north is not the GDR. The GDR's economy completely diverged from West Germany for decades under an entirely different socioeconomic system. The north has been in the same trade federation (the EU) as the rest of the country for decades and only slightly diverged less than six months ago.

The north/Ulster has everything in place to perform just as well as Munster when the economy comes under one authority.

Northern Ireland is much more dependent on state support and transfers from Westminster in a way that the Republic never was. The comparison with the GDR is not very apt: maybe the South of Italy might be better (and I'm not just referring to the Mafia!)

mehico

blanch152 wrote: »

I don't know about that. Quite correctly, they want the North to sort out their own internal problems before addressing any constitutional issues.

Suspect that they would want a Northern Ireland citizens assembly to address some of the domestic problems first.

Perhaps this could be done concurrently, citizens assemblies in NI and ROI working on similar issues and informing an all island assembly.

sebdavis

StupidLikeAFox wrote: »

I mean he is putting the cost at around 2bn. Sinn fein put it at a higher value than that in their own costings - its a lot less than the 11bn that is thrown around but 2bn per year is not insignificant.

Thats the size of a national broadband plan or a children's hospital that we have to outlay, every year, just to keep the lights on - that'll be a hard sell surely?

It says 2.3-3.5billion. Sorry but that is a hell of a gap. A variable of 1.2billion is not small money

It seems to be taking a very positive approach which of course might happen if England really wants rid of the North. Doubt the people of UK will want to take on billions of debt at drop of hat

What happens the huge public sector in the north that would no longer be required?
Of course would have to read the full report but already looks another half assed attempt.

jh79

sebdavis wrote: »

It says 2.3-3.5billion. Sorry but that is a hell of a gap. A variable of 1.2billion is not small money

It seems to be taking a very positive approach which of course might happen if England really wants rid of the North. Doubt the people of UK will want to take on billions of debt at drop of hat

What happens the huge public sector in the north that would no longer be required?
Of course would have to read the full report but already looks another half assed attempt.

The subvention is only a minor part of the true cost;

https://twitter.com/JohnDoyleDCU/status/1389177329860108288?s=20


The Hubner report commissioned by "Friends of SF" claims the following "benefits";

https://cain.ulster.ac.uk/issues/unification/hubner_2015-08.pdf

These changes are projected to increase GDP per capita in the long run by 4 to 7.5 percent in Northern Ireland and by 0.7 to 1.2 percent in the Republic of Ireland.

And to achieve that 1.2% increase we would need to spend billions on Scenario 3. Some say this will involve a doubling of USC or a 8% increase in the standard rate of tax. All budget surpluses would have to be spent on NI (what happens if there are none?) And NI would need to cut expenditure by 2%. The ERSI also pointed a major flaw in the paper. No chance FDI into NI will mirror that of the Republic due to the poorer outcomes in education in NI.

Unification in combined scenario 3 means the ROI pays 100% of NI’s government deficit, harmonization of functions of government reduces NI’s government expenditure by 2% annually from 2018-2025, and adoption of the ROI’s tax regime and foreign investment policy platform attract a higher presence of multinational firms, which catalyzes returns to productivity in NI. Government savings are not applied to deficit reduction, but are spent to expand and improve functions of government. Over a 15 year period NI’s productivity structure converges with that found in the ROI.

Dyr

StupidLikeAFox wrote: »

I mean he is putting the cost at around 2bn. Sinn fein put it at a higher value than that in their own costings - its a lot less than the 11bn that is thrown around but 2bn per year is not insignificant.

Thats the size of a national broadband plan or a children's hospital that we have to outlay, every year, just to keep the lights on - that'll be a hard sell surely?

Lets put it in Fine Gael terms:

We paid 40 billion to bail out our banks

Our Covid lockdown for locals is going to cost us 30 billion

Seems a little odd to get excercised over 2 bn when we're already paying so much more.

sebdavis

jh79 wrote: »

The subvention is only a minor part of the true cost;

https://twitter.com/JohnDoyleDCU/status/1389177329860108288?s=20


The Hubner report commissioned by "Friends of SF" claims the following "benefits";

https://cain.ulster.ac.uk/issues/unification/hubner_2015-08.pdf

These changes are projected to increase GDP per capita in the long run by 4 to 7.5 percent in Northern Ireland and by 0.7 to 1.2 percent in the Republic of Ireland.

And to achieve that 1.2% increase we would need to spend billions on Scenario 3. Some say this will involve a doubling of USC or a 8% increase in the standard rate of tax. All budget surpluses would have to be spent on NI (what happens if there are none?) And NI would need to cut expenditure by 2%. The ERSI also pointed a major flaw in the paper. No chance FDI into NI will mirror that of the Republic due to the poorer outcomes in education in NI.

Unification in combined scenario 3 means the ROI pays 100% of NI’s government deficit, harmonization of functions of government reduces NI’s government expenditure by 2% annually from 2018-2025, and adoption of the ROI’s tax regime and foreign investment policy platform attract a higher presence of multinational firms, which catalyzes returns to productivity in NI. Government savings are not applied to deficit reduction, but are spent to expand and improve functions of government. Over a 15 year period NI’s productivity structure converges with that found in the ROI.

Very few will vote for that. Proves why nobody is willing to actually discuss the numbers behind it.

jh79

sebdavis wrote: »

Very few will vote for that. Proves why nobody is willing to actually discuss the numbers behind it.

It's no accident that SF and their supporters want to focus only on the subvention.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

It's no accident that SF and their supporters want to focus only on the subvention.

No accident that anti-UI's and partitionists want to focus on big scary numbers with no eyes for the pay off or other social benefits to offset the costs. No accident either that the question is always phrased to elicit a negative response...'Do you want to pay more tax'.

Phrase a question 'would you be willing to pay if you receive x,y,z, and you will elicit an entirely different response.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

No accident that anti-UI's and partitionists want to focus on big scary numbers with no eyes for the pay off or other social benefits to offset the costs. No accident either that the question is always phrased to elicit a negative response...'Do you want to pay more tax'.

Phrase a question 'would you be willing to pay if you receive x,y,z, and you will elicit an entirely different response.

What pay-off outside of social benefits are there?