United Ireland Poll - please vote

BonnieSituation

blanch152 wrote: »

More fantasy flat-earth stuff.

There won't be a border poll without it being clear what happens next. There won't be a united Ireland if the people of the South vote against it. Simple as.

So is now the time to plan for a UI or not?

Unsurprisingly, we're getting some confused signals here.

blanch152

BonnieSituation wrote: »

So is now the time to plan for a UI or not?

Unsurprisingly, we're getting some confused signals here.

No, because the numbers in favour of a united Ireland are falling in the North. What is the point of preparing for something that is less likely each year?

BonnieSituation

blanch152 wrote: »

No, because the numbers in favour of a united Ireland are falling in the North. What is the point of preparing for something that is less likely each year?

Pathetic

blanch152

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Pathetic

Not a bit. A border poll is in the hands of the SOS. The position of the British government is clear that there is no prospect of a border poll in the foreseeable future. It is difficult to argue with that, as the conditions set down in the GFA are far from being met.

There is no sign of a groundswell of opinion wanting a united Ireland in the North, in fact, with SF losing support every election up there in recent years, the signs are elsewhere.

A more likely conversation will be around how to bring the option of an independent Northern Ireland onto the agenda.

Junkyard Tom

blanch152 wrote: »

There won't be a united Ireland if the people of the South vote against it. Simple as.

If you want a permanently partitioned country then work towards that goal because the current setup, and everything that goes with it, is not yours to appropriate.

BonnieSituation

blanch152 wrote: »

Not a bit. A border poll is in the hands of the SOS. The position of the British government is clear that there is no prospect of a border poll in the foreseeable future. It is difficult to argue with that, as the conditions set down in the GFA are far from being met.

There is no sign of a groundswell of opinion wanting a united Ireland in the North, in fact, with SF losing support every election up there in recent years, the signs are elsewhere.

A more likely conversation will be around how to bring the option of an independent Northern Ireland onto the agenda.

Ah would you actually go away and put a cold flannel on your head.

blanch152

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

If you want a permanently partitioned country then work towards that goal because the current setup, and everything that goes with it, is not yours to appropriate.

Like you, I am one voter among millions, and entitled to my opinion, as much as anyone else. I am not the anti-democratic one who is claiming that a majority vote in the North means that the people of the South don't have a choice.

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Ah would you actually go away and put a cold flannel on your head.

You really think that some of the people not on the nationalist side who are now calling for a conversation about the future of the island aren't going to play that card straight away as soon as the conversation starts. I don't think you are that naive, so I don't understand your fear. In any conversation about the future of this island, all options will be on the table, including that of an independent Northern Ireland, with a charter of constitutional human rights, member of both the EU and the Commonwealth.

BonnieSituation

blanch152 wrote: »

Like you, I am one voter among millions, and entitled to my opinion, as much as anyone else. I am not the anti-democratic one who is claiming that a majority vote in the North means that the people of the South don't have a choice. ,

You're deliberately misunderstanding Tom. As per usual.

You really think that some of the people not on the nationalist side who are now calling for a conversation about the future of the island aren't going to play that card straight away as soon as the conversation starts. I don't think you are that naive, so I don't understand your fear. In any conversation about the future of this island, all options will be on the table, including that of an independent Northern Ireland, with a charter of constitutional human rights, member of both the EU and the Commonwealth.

No one is clamouring for an independent NI. Why you keep bringing it up us beyond me.

Is the GFA and defending that not good enough for you?

BonnieSituation

blanch152 wrote: »

Yes, the "republicans" are now running scared of a referendum in the South as the truth about the cost of a united Ireland is slowly becoming clearer and the people won't pay more taxes for it.

Want to point out where you're seeing this?

This is the third time I've asked you.

Junkyard Tom

blanch152 wrote: »

the people of the South don't have a choice.

Oh they have a choice alright but they do not get to retain the status quo, of that I'm certain.

You think everyone goes back to pretending nothing has changed the day after pro-UI vote in the north and rejection of it in the south?

Hell will freeze over first.

jh79

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Oh they have a choice alright but they do not get to retain the status quo, of that I'm certain.

You think everyone goes back to pretending nothing has changed the day after pro-UI vote in the north and rejection of it in the south?

Hell will freeze over first.

So what is likely to happen in this scenario?

hazemat

It will happen eventually but I would think not in my lifetime. I think the political trajectory of Scotland will be watched closely and may have a bearing on people's attitudes.

BonnieSituation

jh79 wrote: »

So what is likely to happen in this scenario?

We don't know.

I know partitionists operate in a world of black and white and absolutes and yet are naïve enough to think such a scenario will have no effect on the future of this island.

It's mindboggling.

FrancieBrady

2012 32% are in favour of Scottish Independence

2014 after a plan/White paper is published and discussed almost 50% indicate they will vote in favour.

The gamechanger is the publishing of a plan....and it is the reason partitionists and Unionists are scared of allowing a vote.

Junkyard Tom

jh79 wrote: »

So what is likely to happen in this scenario?

A political crisis, with everything up in the air. A United Ireland being declared anyway, accusations of betrayal of everything this state was founded on, you name it.

One thing that will not be happening is you lot inheriting the status quo unchallenged. No hope.

blanch152

BonnieSituation wrote: »

No one is clamouring for an independent NI. Why you keep bringing it up us beyond me.

Is the GFA and defending that not good enough for you?

You should be paying more attention

https://www.martenscentre.eu/blog/doesnt-independent-northern-ireland-deserve-chance/

Interesting point.

"Northern Ireland should become a new Belgium. Hopelessly divided, but perfectly viable and with a chance for real material improvements in living standards."

An analogy I hadn't considered before. The provenance of that article is also interesting - does it signal change in thinking within FG?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/colm-t%C3%B3ib%C3%ADn-the-north-must-become-an-independent-eu-state-1.3010252

It seems I am not alone in believing it to be the best long-term solution.

"Who has a problem then with Northern Ireland remaining a member of the European Union while also remaining a member of the Commonwealth, directly under the Crown?

Who has a problem with it maintaining its soft border with the Republic while keeping also its British identity in full, its education system, its health system, its police force, its Sterling, its BBC, its Stormont, its electoral system, its agreements?"

Couldn't have put it better.

blanch152

BonnieSituation wrote: »

We don't know.

I know partitionists operate in a world of black and white and absolutes and yet are naïve enough to think such a scenario will have no effect on the future of this island.

It's mindboggling.

The logical conclusion is that the people of Northern Ireland have voted democratically to leave the UK so that must be honoured, but that the people of Ireland have voted democratically not to have a united Ireland so that must be honoured, leaving an independent Northern Ireland as the only option that fits the democratically expressed will of the people of this island. The new Northern Ireland constitution could contain an aspiration to unity once people North and South have voted to accept that.

BonnieSituation

blanch152 wrote: »

You should be paying more attention

https://www.martenscentre.eu/blog/doesnt-independent-northern-ireland-deserve-chance/

Interesting point.

"Northern Ireland should become a new Belgium. Hopelessly divided, but perfectly viable and with a chance for real material improvements in living standards."

An analogy I hadn't considered before. The provenance of that article is also interesting - does it signal change in thinking within FG?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/colm-t%C3%B3ib%C3%ADn-the-north-must-become-an-independent-eu-state-1.3010252

It seems I am not alone in believing it to be the best long-term solution.

"Who has a problem then with Northern Ireland remaining a member of the European Union while also remaining a member of the Commonwealth, directly under the Crown?

Who has a problem with it maintaining its soft border with the Republic while keeping also its British identity in full, its education system, its health system, its police force, its Sterling, its BBC, its Stormont, its electoral system, its agreements?"

Couldn't have put it better.

So a continued and imposed partition is your solution to partition?

Time for you to go and agitate for it I guess. It'll be a lonely road. Cos literally no one outside of a few hardline loyalist wingnuts wants it.

I look forward to repeating this to you next week when you inconceivably bring it up again.

BonnieSituation

blanch152 wrote: »

The logical conclusion is that the people of Northern Ireland have voted democratically to leave the UK so that must be honoured, but that the people of Ireland have voted democratically not to have a united Ireland so that must be honoured, leaving an independent Northern Ireland as the only option that fits the democratically expressed will of the people of this island. The new Northern Ireland constitution could contain an aspiration to unity once people North and South have voted to accept that.

Surely we need a referendum on a UI then to make your fantasy scenario come through?

blanch152

BonnieSituation wrote: »

So a continued and imposed partition is your solution to partition?

Time for you to go and agitate for it I guess. It'll be a lonely road. Cos literally no one outside of a few hardline loyalist wingnuts wants it.

I look forward to repeating this to you next week when you inconceivably being it up again.

It's a different solution.

An Irish solution for an Irish problem, so to speak.

Northern Ireland in the EU means economic integration on this island. Northern Ireland in the Commonwealth means retaining strong cultural links with the UK. Northern Ireland standing on its own feet with guaranteed human rights means people learning to live with each other.

Hugely positive step.

blanch152

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Surely we need a referendum on a UI then to make your fantasy scenario come through?

What you call my fantasy scenario has shaky foundations as it is built on the even greater fantasy of a border poll actually happening.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/colm-t%C3%B3ib%C3%ADn-the-north-must-become-an-independent-eu-state-1.3010252

It seems I am not alone in believing it to be the best long-term solution.

"Who has a problem then with Northern Ireland remaining a member of the European Union while also remaining a member of the Commonwealth, directly under the Crown?

Who has a problem with it maintaining its soft border with the Republic while keeping also its British identity in full, its education system, its health system, its police force, its Sterling, its BBC, its Stormont, its electoral system, its agreements?"

Couldn't have put it better.

Well Tobin did foist The Blackwater Lightship and the cliches of 'Brooklyn' on us, so best of luck to him and you foisting an Ind NI on those who don't want it.

Junkyard Tom

blanch152 wrote: »

The logical conclusion is that the people of Northern Ireland have voted democratically to leave the UK

They will have voted for unification of our country.

I'm confident that when the possible consequences of a no vote in the south are laid bare then people will vote to fulfil the vision for our country.

BonnieSituation

blanch152 wrote: »

It's a different solution.

An Irish solution for an Irish problem, so to speak.

Northern Ireland in the EU means economic integration on this island. Northern Ireland in the Commonwealth means retaining strong cultural links with the UK. Northern Ireland standing on its own feet with guaranteed human rights means people learning to live with each other.

Hugely positive step.

And of the 1.8million people in Fermanagh, Armagh, Tyrone, Down, Antrim and Derry that DON'T WANT an independent NI? DO they get a say.

Thought you were all about "consent"?

BonnieSituation

blanch152 wrote: »

What you call my fantasy scenario has shaky foundations as it is built on the even greater fantasy of a border poll actually happening.

So you want to skip the "consent" part of the GFA and jump straight to the Independent NI part that no-one wants?

Where did you learn politics?

BonnieSituation

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Well Tobin did foist The Blackwater Lightship and the cliches of 'Brooklyn' on us, so best of luck to him and you foisting an Ind NI on those who don't want it.

"Its electoral system."

Funny that a partitionist might agree to the retention of FPTP.

BonnieSituation

blanch152 wrote: »

Yes, the "republicans" are now running scared of a referendum in the South as the truth about the cost of a united Ireland is slowly becoming clearer and the people won't pay more taxes for it.

Want to point out where you're seeing this?

This is the fourth time I've asked you.

Barry904

blanch152 wrote: »

Yes, the "republicans" are now running scared of a referendum in the South as the truth about the cost of a united Ireland is slowly becoming clearer and the people won't pay more taxes for it.

Hahaha good one, the Republicans are the only ones who want the referendum (the whole reason we are talking about a referendum) the partionists and Unionists want nothing to do with it.

The partionists and Unionists are terrified of a referendum so they have been spreading propaganda that nobody wants a United Ireland and how horrible it would be to the masses of the easily gullible.

If the Partionists and Unionists are so confident that peoples opinions are the same as that poll people keep bringing up by the independent then why don't they just agree to the Republican calls for a referendum to shut the republicans up?

Instead they are trying every tactic in the book to make sure a referendum doesn't happen.

FileNotFound

I'm still waiting to hear Junkyard explain what exactly would change in RoI if the south votes no.

A no vote would really just mean RoI continues on as is - would create a right mess up North no doubt.

BonnieSituation

FileNotFound wrote: »

I'm still waiting to hear Junkyard explain what exactly would change in RoI if the south votes no.

A no vote would really just mean RoI continues on as is - would create a right mess up North no doubt.

We don't know. We can't possibly know, but we can use our brains to figure out that things WILL change. It's a bit obvious that in the event of a NI: YES and ROI: NO that things will get, messy.

The ROI couldn't possibly continue as is. How are you guys so politically naive?