United Ireland Poll - please vote

Fionn1952

downcow wrote: »

Alliance are also shedding votes to the uup. A consequence of the uup choseing a very liberal leader who is strong in opposition to the protocol

At 9% in the last election and currently polling at 16%, you'd be hard pressed to describe Alliance as shedding votes anywhere, Downcow.

Given that recent polling has UUP grow from 12.6% in the last election to 14% in the most recent poll, perhaps reports of their great gains over Alliance Party (who I'll reiterate have grown from 9% to 16% in that time) are probably somewhat overblown. Doug Beatty certainly is more liberal than Steve Aiken or Robin Swann, but the liberal politics of Mike Nesbitt didn't help too much during the last election.

I'd imagine the UUP vote increases are coming from those disenfranchised by the DUP, of a more moderate bent than to transfer to TUV but still perhaps perceiving the continuation of the Union as a significant factor. I suspect the rabidly anti NIP vote has drifted more to the extreme of TUV.

Simply put, I don't reckon the cohorts of Liberal Unionists and rabidly anti-NI Protocol voters overlap in a significant enough manner to line up with your suggestions, and the mathematics certainly don't seem to add up.

mehico

blanch152 wrote: »

I think the latest opinion poll in Northern Ireland might soften your cough a bit.

Support for nationalist parties is at 37%, pretty much unchanged since the last Assembly elections, suggesting that a border poll is as far away as ever, the so-called demographic dividend just isn't paying out.

I was referring to emergence of some of the new initiatives that have been gaining momentum recently, for example, the SDLP's New Ireland Commission and the establishment of groups such as Irelands Future.

And also the recent discussion taking place in the last couple of weeks in the Houses of the Oireachtas around the setting up of an All-island Citizens Assembly and the concept of allowing representation for NI MP's in the Dail.

guy2231

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Question for those in favour of a united Ireland, which includes myself. How would you feel about losing to flag and anthem as a condition of a united Ireland?

For me it would be a new political entity and a natural consequence of progress. A change in a couple of symbols would be a tiny price to pay.

We could do that if we wanted to offer an olive branch but it is not obligatory.

If the majority of people wanted to change it as an offering I would have no problem with it.

blanch152

Fionn1952 wrote: »

As far away as ever? What was the percentage of Nationalist seats in 1938? 1962? 2003?

One could argue that the demographics haven't moved significantly for one election cycle due to a strong growth in the middle ground (who may or may not support Unification).....but it is entirely ignoring basic trend analysis to suggest it is as far away as ever. It requires completely ignoring or handwaving the consistent drop in support for parties who are explicitly Unionist.

The 37% is a long way off the 41% the nationalist parties got in 2016.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Northern_Ireland_Assembly_election

But seeing as you ask about 2003, it was 39% then.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Northern_Ireland_Assembly_election

At best the nationalist parties share of the vote can be seen as stagnant for the last 20 years.

blanch152

mehico wrote: »

I was referring to emergence of some of the new initiatives that have been gaining momentum recently, for example, the SDLP's New Ireland Commission and the establishment of groups such as Irelands Future.

And also the recent discussion taking place in the last couple of weeks in the Houses of the Oireachtas around the setting up of an All-island Citizens Assembly and the concept of allowing representation for NI MP's in the Dail.

Talk, my friend, is always good, but action it is not.

Fionn1952

blanch152 wrote: »

The 37% is a long way off the 41% the nationalist parties got in 2016.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Northern_Ireland_Assembly_election

But seeing as you ask about 2003, it was 39% then.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Northern_Ireland_Assembly_election

At best the nationalist parties share of the vote can be seen as stagnant for the last 20 years.

If viewed entirely in the vacuum of presumption that those who don't vote for either Nationalist nor Unionist parties will vote in their entirety against Unification, you're 100% correct, it's a lost cause and we should all just row in with your opinions.

But you don't expect anyone to actually believe this is anything but your usual, 'say anything at all so long as it suits your argument against Unification' nonsense, do you? Like arguing that Alliance are in favour of NI Separatism.....a point I note you've refused to address at all since your outrageous point there was completely demolished?

mehico

blanch152 wrote: »

Talk, my friend, is always good, but action it is not.

I agree. Talk is always good and there now appears to be meaningful dialogue emerging towards progressing Irish Unity from across the political and civic spectrum. This did not seem to be as evident to the same extent before now.

blanch152

Fionn1952 wrote: »

If viewed entirely in the vacuum of presumption that those who don't vote for either Nationalist nor Unionist parties will vote in their entirety against Unification, you're 100% correct, it's a lost cause and we should all just row in with your opinions.

But you don't expect anyone to actually believe this is anything but your usual, 'say anything at all so long as it suits your argument against Unification' nonsense, do you? Like arguing that Alliance are in favour of NI Separatism.....a point I note you've refused to address at all since your outrageous point there was completely demolished?

NI independence is the coming thing. Membership of both the EU and the Commonwealth is enticing, giving much to both sides. Dismiss it at your peril.

However, never underestimate the resistance to change, and the ability of people to unite under their second-best preference.

Facts are, nationalist parties are losing votes, hence a border poll is further away. If we get a SF First Minister with SF getting 25%, but SDLP on 10%, it will be very much a hollow victory.

blanch152

mehico wrote: »

I agree. Talk is always good and there now appears to be meaningful dialogue emerging towards progressing Irish Unity from across the political and civic spectrum. This did not seem to be as evident to the same extent before now.

When people talk about a shared island, they don't necessarily mean unity. The conversation is much much wider than that.

guy2231

blanch152 wrote: »

When people talk about a shared island, they don't necessarily mean unity. The conversation is much much wider than that.

Yes some don't, some talk about a shared island as in sharing it with England.

Hamsterchops

guy2231 wrote: »

Yes some don't, some talk about a shared island as in sharing it with England.

I thought a shared island was s United Ireland "light". In other words this island wouldn't be politically United, but in the event if NI leaving the UK then we'd all share this island together, not as one country or one nation, but we'd share the island peacefully together, NI & ROI (without any political connection to Britain) < that's the context.

That's my understanding.

Junkyard Tom

blanch152 wrote: »

NI independence is the coming thing.

You know it's really quite weird how you desperately latch onto this fantasy to assuage your horror at the thought of our people in the north voting to finally unite the country free of British rule?

Really really weird.

mehico

blanch152 wrote: »

When people talk about a shared island, they don't necessarily mean unity. The conversation is much much wider than that.

Yes, there are parallel conversations taking place around both Irish Unity and a shared island. Nobody suggesting a shared island necessarily means unity, though there is inevitably some common ground.

blanch152

Hamsterchops wrote: »

I thought a shared island was s United Ireland "light". In other words this island wouldn't be politically United, but in the event if NI leaving the UK then we'd all share this island together, not as one country or one nation, but we'd share the island peacefully together, NI & ROI (without any political connection to Britain) < that's the context.

That's my understanding.

Not necessarily, a shared island has many many meanings.

blanch152

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

You know it's really quite weird how you desperately latch onto this fantasy to assuage your horror at the thought of our people in the north voting to finally unite the country free of British rule?

Really really weird.

Why? There are now three minorities in the North, you need to face up to the reality of that.

You also need to consider what is the second choice of unionists, and what is the second choice of nationalists.

Junkyard Tom

blanch152 wrote: »

You also need to consider what is the second choice of unionists

I don't, and neither does anyone else, because it's not a thing, except in your weird desperate crusade to prevent the unification of our country.

guy2231

The greates example in the last few years of how the people of Ireland are not free are the recent talks about the IRISH border and how the people North and South had no say in the matter at the end of the day it was down to the ENGLISH what happened.

The partionists of these days, and the "west Brits" prior to partial independence of Ireland try/tried their best to promote their ideology and enforce it on others through scaremongering and trying to make us believe that we can not achieve and accomplish our dreams but they will never succeed for the people of Ireland know in their hearts we can accomplish our dreams and make them work.

BonnieSituation

Hamsterchops wrote: »

I thought a shared island was s United Ireland "light". In other words this island wouldn't be politically United, but in the event if NI leaving the UK then we'd all share this island together, not as one country or one nation, but we'd share the island peacefully together, NI & ROI (without any political connection to Britain) < that's the context.

That's my understanding.

That's not understanding anything at all then.

What did you think reunification means in the context of a border poll?

BonnieSituation

blanch152 wrote: »

NI independence is the coming thing. Membership of both the EU and the Commonwealth is enticing, giving much to both sides. Dismiss it at your peril.

It's not though. I'll dismiss it happily and continually.

However, never underestimate the resistance to change, and the ability of people to unite under their second-best preference.

And said with no hint of irony. You're thrashing about here showing your fear of charge and the death of the status quo.

Why would people settle for second best? Again. Seems a bit daft.

Facts are, nationalist parties are losing votes, hence a border poll is further away. If we get a SF First Minister with SF getting 25%, but SDLP on 10%, it will be very much a hollow victory.

Nicely tee'd up now for you to state that a Nationalist FM doesn't actually mean anything.

Fionn1952

blanch152 wrote: »

NI independence is the coming thing. Membership of both the EU and the Commonwealth is enticing, giving much to both sides. Dismiss it at your peril.

However, never underestimate the resistance to change, and the ability of people to unite under their second-best preference.

Facts are, nationalist parties are losing votes, hence a border poll is further away. If we get a SF First Minister with SF getting 25%, but SDLP on 10%, it will be very much a hollow victory.

No matter how many times you say it, no matter what nonsense you come up with to try and push it, NI Separatism is incredibly niche, supported by practically no one and by no means a moderate postion like you imply.

You've been called out on it before when you tried to suggest that Alliance Party were supporters of NI Separatism, when this was shown as demonstrably absolute nonsense, you ran away from the discussion. No matter how many ways you try and twist and turn, no matter how many times you try and portray it as a reasonable middle ground, NI Separatism holds single figure support with no signs of growing and I absolutely challenge you to provide a modicum of evidence to the contrary.

Maybe I seem like I'm repeating myself, but I'll call out this nonsense every time you try it.

guy2231

Fionn1952 wrote: »

No matter how many times you say it, no matter what nonsense you come up with to try and push it, NI Separatism is incredibly niche, supported by practically no one and by no means a moderate postion like you imply.

You've been called out on it before when you tried to suggest that Alliance Party were supporters of NI Separatism, when this was shown as demonstrably absolute nonsense, you ran away from the discussion. No matter how many ways you try and twist and turn, no matter how many times you try and portray it as a reasonable middle ground, NI Separatism holds single figure support with no signs of growing and I absolutely challenge you to provide a modicum of evidence to the contrary.

Supported by "practically no one" so you call 35-45% of people asked in polls on the spot with no talks of the future of a United Ireland "practically no one"?

Fionn1952

guy2231 wrote: »

Supported by "practically no one" so you call 35-45% of people asked in polls on the spot with no talks of the future of a United Ireland "practically no one"?

....Can you provide me with a source that suggests 35-45% of people have ever been in favour of NI Separatism? It is a niche Loyalist belief that has largely stuck at single figure support.

I presume you've misread my post or you don't actually know what NI Separatism is.

BonnieSituation

Fionn1952 wrote: »

....Can you provide me with a source that suggests 35-45% of people have ever been in favour of NI Separatism? It is a niche Loyalist belief that has largely stuck at single figure support.

Methinks Guy read "NI separatism" as a synonym for Irish reunification.

Fionn1952

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Methinks Guy read "NI separatism" as a synonym for Irish reunification.

I suspect as much alright, Bonnie.

ittakestwo

blanch152 wrote: »

NI independence is the coming thing. Membership of both the EU and the Commonwealth is enticing, giving much to both sides. Dismiss it at your peril.

However, never underestimate the resistance to change, and the ability of people to unite under their second-best preference.

Facts are, nationalist parties are losing votes, hence a border poll is further away. If we get a SF First Minister with SF getting 25%, but SDLP on 10%, it will be very much a hollow victory.

When the UK is finally breaking up there will be a call for NI independence by some unionists. Ones like you who have deluded yourself that you aren't Irish even tho you are born and bread in Ireland will never want to see the irish nation back in one jurisdiction as the tole of growing up in a apartheid has long term effects. But for other irish unionists and most nationalist they will go with a UI and this will greatly out number people calling for an independent NI.

Hamsterchops

Two things at play here;

1/ A United Ireland, plain & simple, old school - United as one country & one Nation, with one flag, one anthem & one head of State, & no land border.

Very difficult to achieve in the real world without serious upheaval and dangerous instability.

2/ A shared island, shared in a peaceful way, respectful of the two major nationalities, traditions & cultures, two heads of State & the land border between the two jurisdictions.

Option two with NI either remaining in the UK or leaving the UK and becoming a separate entity (outside the UK) but not a fully paid up member of this State either!

A bit like the Channel islands or the Isle of Man.

BonnieSituation

Hamsterchops wrote: »

Two things at play here;

1/ A United Ireland, plain & simple, old school - United as one country & one Nation, with one flag, one anthem & one head of State, & no land border.

Very difficult to achieve in the real world without serious upheaval and dangerous instability.

2/ A shared island, shared in a peaceful way, respectful of the two major nationalities, traditions & cultures, two heads of State & the land border between the two jurisdictions.

Option two with NI either remaining in the UK or leaving the UK and becoming a separate entity (outside the UK) but not a fully paid up member of this State either!

A bit like the Channel islands or the Isle of Man.

Number 2 (NI independence) is literally not on the table. No one bar some partitionists on here and some fringe loyalist lunatics, are after it.

In order to achieve 2 you have to completely rip up the GFA.

And you'll be ripping up the GFA to experiment with a concept that no-one has asked for, much less wants.

I know Northern Nationalists almost never come to the fore with any of your nonsensical sops to Unionism, but tell me why they would seek this option over a UI? What's in this for them?

It's like you lot are willing it into existence and then will turn around to these conversations later on as prove that its being discussed and therefore is a reality option for Ireland's future.

Hamsterchops

Well I blame Michael Martin for the "shared island idea", or at least that's where I heard it first, and as regard the NI leaving the UK and becoming a separate entity, surely that's like a halfway house to a United Ireland, which is nice. Yes/No?

Good to probe these ideas don't you think Bonnie.

BonnieSituation

Hamsterchops wrote: »

Well I blame Michael Martin for the "shared island idea", or at least that's where I heard it first, and as regard the NI leaving the UK and becoming a separate entity, surely that's like a halfway house to a United Ireland, which is nice. Yes/No?

Good to probe these ideas don't you think Bonnie.

Blame Mícheal Martin all you want.

The "Shared Island" Unit is just another sop to Unionist and their frail sensibilities.

Probing ideas are all well and good, but with the existence of an already fraught agreement, why would you try to open that wound again?

It doesn't make a lick of sense.

Why not probe repartition and let Antrim and Down off on their own and let Fermanagh, Tyrone, Derry and Armagh rejoin with us and be all happy together?

Let's probe that idea. /s

---

The thing is, all of these nonsensical ideas that you want to probe just allow you to wash your hands of a UI and our Northern citizens. The selfishness of Partitionists knows no bounds.

blanch152

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Blame Mícheal Martin all you want.

The "Shared Island" Unit is just another sop to Unionist and their frail sensibilities.

Probing ideas are all well and good, but with the existence of an already fraught agreement, why would you try to open that wound again?

It doesn't make a lick of sense.

Why not probe repartition and let Antrim and Down off on their own and let Fermanagh, Tyrone, Derry and Armagh rejoin with us and be all happy together?

Let's probe that idea. /s

---

The thing is, all of these nonsensical ideas that you want to probe just allow you to wash your hands of a UI and our Northern citizens. The selfishness of Partitionists knows no bounds.

The "Shared Island" Unit is as much a sop to Northern nationalists.