United Ireland Poll - please vote

FrancieBrady

Triangle wrote: »

Not exactly, it's a little old but 40% would pay extra tax for better services.

https://m.independent.ie/breaking-news/irish-news/40-willing-to-pay-more-taxes-for-better-services-26480683.html

That's nearly double that would pay extra tax for a UI.

Fair enough. But again I would draw attention to the question...'extra taxes' in return for something better. There is no plan or 'something better' on the table.
Give people a plan and they will react differently.

Also, interesting that only 21% said 'economic growth was the most important measure of progress'.

There's more to life than what's left in your wallet...as I said.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

Sorry, just not getting the reference. Pym means?

Google is your friend: try these terms - 'irish independent, pym'

blanch152

jh79 wrote: »

Sorry, just not getting the reference. Pym means?

Another pejorative term invented by exclusionary nationalists and used to describe others in order to dehumanise.

StupidLikeAFox

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The question was 'Would you be in favour of paying higher taxes to fund the costs of a united Ireland?'

The answer to that in general from most people would be: 'No I am not in favour of paying higher taxes'.

So what is your issue then?

If any government can find a way to deliver a UI without raising taxes then they can count on the 67%. If they can only deliver a UI by raising taxes, they can only count on 22%

The issue of tax increases is a dealbreaker for the 45% in between. No need for the mental gymnastics, its very straightforward.

blanch152

Hamsterchops wrote: »

Two big 'Top 10' United Ireland threads running concurrently in Current Affairs!

Tension & anticipation building, like it's imminent, what's happening?

Apparently, not imminent.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/referendum-rules-must-be-updated-ahead-ofany-border-poll-on-irish-unity-40469929.html

"The academics conclude that a border poll, as provided for in the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, is not inevitable"

"The authors also note that the Good Friday Agreement allows that “50pc-plus one” would be enough to decide the issue. “But the ethos of consensual politics should be upheld as far as possible,” they add by way of warning."

"voters must be protected from misinformation"

Must look for a full copy of the report.

FrancieBrady

StupidLikeAFox wrote: »

So what is your issue then?

If any government can find a way to deliver a UI without raising taxes then they can count on the 67%. If they can only deliver a UI by raising taxes, they can only count on 22%

The issue of tax increases is a dealbreaker for the 45% in between. No need for the mental gymnastics, its very straightforward.

No, you cannot even say that.

I pay taxes I am not in favour of, because I know I have to. As 'democrats' we do things we aren't in favour of all the time, that's the deal.

It is a nonsense question. We have no idea how many would or wouldn't pay tax, just the number who would not be in favour of it. How many would not be 'in favour' of property tax, but still pay it? Etc etc etc.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Fair enough. But again I would draw attention to the question...'extra taxes' in return for something better. There is no plan or 'something better' on the table.
Give people a plan and they will react differently.

Also, interesting that only 21% said 'economic growth was the most important measure of progress'.

There's more to life than what's left in your wallet...as I said.

Even in theory there is very little "something better" on the table for the Republic. If we are lucky, financially speaking we might get back to the levels we are at now but only after massive investment. Unification doesn't change our access to either the EU or UK markets.

Can someone give an example of a financial opportunity that only unification will bring?

Or any example of a benefit that our investment might bring? Control of our borders in the event of another pandemic is the only one I can think of. But hopefully that is a once in a lifetime / generation event and we'll be better prepared for the next one. Even if not, funding of an all Ireland health service is going to be even more difficult than it is now.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Apparently, not imminent.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/referendum-rules-must-be-updated-ahead-ofany-border-poll-on-irish-unity-40469929.html

"The academics conclude that a border poll, as provided for in the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, is not inevitable"

"The authors also note that the Good Friday Agreement allows that “50pc-plus one” would be enough to decide the issue. “But the ethos of consensual politics should be upheld as far as possible,” they add by way of warning."

"voters must be protected from misinformation"

Must look for a full copy of the report.

If you are only going to take partial sentences that suit your agenda...I wouldn't bother reading the report blanch...just misrepresent it in your time honoured style.
The full sentence:

The academics conclude that a border poll, as provided for in the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, is not inevitable but could well happen in the wake of the 2016 Brexit referendum and a potential rerun of the Scottish independence vote.

blanch152

https://www.ucl.ac.uk/constitution-unit/working-group-unification-referendums-island-ireland

Here is a link to the full report, only skimmed it so far but very interesting reading.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Google is your friend: try these terms - 'irish independent, pym'

Ah got it now. I googled Pymindependent and Pym.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

https://www.ucl.ac.uk/constitution-unit/working-group-unification-referendums-island-ireland

Here is a link to the full report, only skimmed it so far but very interesting reading.

Just skimmed it too, will read later. This jumps out though...an end to the nonsense from those who would insist on the creation of Unionist veto's and super majorities?

15.3. Our legal analysis in Chapter 4 identified certain key provisions that are either
explicit or implicit in the 1998 Agreement. Unification could come about only
through referendums in both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Such
votes must be ‘concurrent’—on effectively the same proposals—but need not
necessarily be simultaneous. Unification would be required if simple majorities
of 50% + 1 of voters in each jurisdiction supported it. Unification would not come
about if a majority of voters either north or south opposed it.
15.4. Throughout our analysis we have also emphasised the broader ethos of the
1998 Agreement, which stresses the value of proceeding as consensually as
possible on many matters. That consensual principle does not apply to the
basic question of sovereignty, which must be decided by simple majorities north
and south. Subject to that constraint, however, an inclusive and consensual
approach should be sought in the development of plans for the referendum
process and the development of proposals for the form of a united Ireland or for
any reforms to the Union.

Whatcar212

Based on this: https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/politics/poll-how-much-would-irish-unity-cost-and-what-flag-would-be-flown-3222203

West Germany seen a 7.5% tax increase for unification. (still increased tax 30 years later but much less than the original 7.5%)

The article puts ours at 28% basic income tax instead of 20%.

That would be an extra €2,500 per year in tax for a 35k salary. (or 1,700 for a 25k salary)

Would be around 200 less per month in the pocket. Which is well worth it imo. (but not everyone is in my financial situation)

54% in the republic are opposed to a tax increase to fund a UI according to the article. (64% in the north)

Junkyard Tom

Bean-counter partitionists are like those people who buy something in the euro-store having to replace it every couple of years instead of spending the money on something of quality that will stand the test of time. 'Knowing the price of everything and the value of nothing' I believe it's known as.

It just seems beyond the imagination of pound-shop-partitionists to see the value in uniting the country and finally ending the disruption of the border and British jurisdiction. This shit with Brexit/NIP will be repalced by some other issue in years to come, and then some other issue, and then another, and so on.

jh79

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Bean-counter partitionists are like those people who buy something in the euro-store having to replace it every couple of years instead of spending the money on something of quality that will stand the test of time. 'Knowing the price of everything and the value of nothing' I believe it's known as.

It just seems beyond the imagination of pound-shop-partitionists to see the value in uniting the country and finally ending the disruption of the border and British jurisdiction. This shit with Brexit/NIP will be repalced by some other issue in years to come, and then some other issue, and then another, and so on.

Back to imaginary carrots and sticks. You gave us all a good laugh with the imaginery sticks the last time.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

Back to imaginary carrots and sticks. You gave us all a good laugh with the imaginery sticks the last time.

And the doom laden negativity isn't imaginary?

guy2231

jh79 wrote: »

Back to imaginary carrots and sticks. You gave us all a good laugh with the imaginery sticks the last time.

What are you even on about, he just made a valid point that you can't reply to so you come up with this rubbish.

We all know you are a strong supporter of partition and there is nothing any of us can do to change that, and that you are against the cause of Irish freedom, real freedom, not this halfway freedom we have now where the people of Ireland North or South have\had no say in what happened with the border the British Government decides and decided on that.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

And the doom laden negativity isn't imaginary?

Our relative GDPs are imaginary? Our relative GDP per capita are imaginary? Lack of investment in education in NI (needed for FDI) is imaginary? Excessive levels of PS employment in NI is imaginary? Deficit / Subvention in NI is imaginary?

Fionn1952

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Bean-counter partitionists are like those people who buy something in the euro-store having to replace it every couple of years instead of spending the money on something of quality that will stand the test of time. 'Knowing the price of everything and the value of nothing' I believe it's known as.

It just seems beyond the imagination of pound-shop-partitionists to see the value in uniting the country and finally ending the disruption of the border and British jurisdiction. This shit with Brexit/NIP will be repalced by some other issue in years to come, and then some other issue, and then another, and so on.

I do question the value of taking this sort of tone with people.

Hearts and minds won't be won over by telling people they haven't got the imagination to see the benefits instead of telling them the benefits. I can be guilty of it myself when frustration builds, particularly when it's a point I may have repeated multiple times, and ultimately you're not going to convince everyone....but certainly those who could be convinced won't be in this manner.

I'm apparently feeling very zen today, so do feel free to call me a hypocrite the next time my own frustration boils over; the reminder might do me no harm.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

Our relative GDPs are imaginary? Our relative GDP per capita are imaginary? Lack of investment in education in NI (needed for FDI) is imaginary? Excessive levels of PS employment in NI is imaginary? Deficit / Subvention in NI is imaginary?

No doom laden negativity is imaginary.

I want a UI so we can fix things on this island.

If 'things' need fixing, it stands to reason they are currently broken.

You want to hold on tight to what you have got. Own it, selfish partitionism has never changed.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

No doom laden negativity is imaginary.

I want a UI so we can fix things on this island.

If 'things' need fixing, it stands to reason they are currently broken.

You want to hold on tight to what you have got. Own it, selfish partitionism has never changed.

I'm fine with the selfish partitionist label but your not kidding anyone with the narrative that unification benefits the Republic. It's about us paying to fix NI and to bring it in line with the Republic. We gain nothing from it.

Some will be happy with dramatic tax increases to fix it but they'll get nothing in return.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

I'm fine with the selfish partitionist label but your not kidding anyone with the narrative that unification benefits the Republic. It's about us paying to fix NI and to bring it in line with the Republic. We gain nothing from it.

Some will be happy with dramatic tax increases to fix it but they'll will nothing in return.

Which is just head in the sand nonsense.

A UI is now in the interests of;

The people of NI who voted to stay in the EU.
Us in the south.
The rest of the EU.
The UK.

There is zero evidence that a planned UI will dramatically increase taxation.

If we subsume NI with no intention of making island wide infrastructural change and leave NI as it is (with no transition phase adjustments by two sovereign governments in who's interests a successful UI now is.) then YES there will be dramatic tax increases.

Grizzly 45

I'll be looking forward to the Orange parades and pallet burning the night before on the 12th going past the GPO on O Connell st, all nice and peaceful with the Irish citizenry happy to embrace Unionist and protestant culture and customs in our capital and other towns seeing we are so much into diversity and acceptance of other cultures these days...:D

If we cant accept that and you are outraged by the thought of such happening...well then we have no business with unification.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Which is just head in the sand nonsense.

A UI is now in the interests of;

The people of NI who voted to stay in the EU.
Us in the south.
The rest of the EU.
The UK.

There is zero evidence that a planned UI will dramatically increase taxation.

If we subsume NI with no intention of making island wide infrastructural change and leave NI as it is (with no transition phase adjustments by two sovereign governments in who's interests a successful UI now is.) then YES there will be dramatic tax increases.

The people of NI wanted a UI in the event of a hard brexit. Since that didn't occur support has dropped in the last 2 polls. Without that majority only the NI protocol or similar can solve the issues for us and the EU.

The rest of your post makes no sense. You have it completely backwards!

*The low cost option is taking on only the deficit and would require a 20/30bn budget adjustment such as a 8% increase in the standard rate of tax. Could be done via services cuts instead but either way a 20/30bn adjustment. The reason for the difference is the increased population. Fair enough a transition period will impact here.

*Island wide changes to infrastructure, harmonization of services is what will lead to "dramatic" tax increases to account for the massive increase in spending. We are talking about a 2 million increase in population. Can't see how a transition period helps here? The UK don't invest at the moment and can't see them increasing investment.

* A planned unification will still require the same about of extra spending it just might mean someone else will fund it.

Whatcar212

Grizzly 45 wrote: »

I'll be looking forward to the Orange parades and pallet burning the night before on the 12th going past the GPO on O Connell st, all nice and peaceful with the Irish citizenry happy to embrace Unionist and protestant culture and customs in our capital and other towns seeing we are so much into diversity and acceptance of other cultures these days...:D

If we cant accept that and you are outraged by the thought of such happening...well then we have no business with unification.

Why do people assume the needs of a minority must be catered to and given even keel to the majority.
This doesn't happen anywhere else, yet for some reason hardline unionists need to be catered to... I'm not buying into that crap. They can keep their parades but have them restricted to their own areas.

What next? A KKK march down O'Connell Street to cater to the minority of racists in the country?

This mindset of the catering to keep a unionist minority happy is a joke

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

The people of NI wanted a UI in the event of a hard brexit. Since that didn't occur support has dropped in the last 2 polls. Without that majority only the NI protocol or similar can solve the issues for us and the EU.

The rest of your post makes no sense. You have it completely backwards!

*The low cost option is taking on only the deficit and would require a 20/30bn budget adjustment such as a 8% increase in the standard rate of tax. Could be done via services cuts instead but either way a 20/30bn adjustment. The reason for the difference is the increased population. Fair enough a transition period will impact here.

*Island wide changes to infrastructure, harmonization of services is what will lead to "dramatic" tax increases to account for the massive increase in spending. We are talking about a 2 million increase in population. Can't see how a transition period helps here? The UK don't invest at the moment and can't see them increasing investment.

* A planned unification will still require the same about of extra spending it just might mean someone else will fund it.

Just getting to DUP levels of 'Never Never Never' here now.

When you draw a partitionist out the level of negativity is repulsive. Keep it up.

Very very few people are like that.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Just getting to DUP levels of 'Never Never Never' here now.

When you draw a partitionist out the level of negativity is reclusive. Keep it up.

Very very few people are like that.

Won't be long until you are claiming its not "a failed statelet" after all!

I'm just being realistic. Deluded if you think a region with 2 million people generating only 35bn a year and propped up by the British with excessive employment in the PS and a subvention can be taken on by a country of 6 million without dramatic tax increases.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

Won't be long until you are claiming its not "a failed statelet" after all!

I'm just being realistic. Deluded if you think a region with 2 million people generating only 35bn a year and propped up by the British with excessive employment in the PS and a subvention can be taken on by a country of 6 million without dramatic tax increases.

There you go...doing exactly what I pointed out. Withering on about something nobody is proposing...i.e. us subsuming NI as is and carrying on.

Ridiculous.

Hamsterchops

FrancieBrady wrote: »

A UI is now in the interests of;

The people of NI who voted to stay in the EU.
Us in the south.
The rest of the EU.
The UK.

Not really in the interests of the UK if one part of the UK leaves, as it deminishes & breaks the UK.

Of course their loss is our gain, in theory.

FrancieBrady

Hamsterchops wrote: »

Not really in the interests of the UK if one part of the UK leaves, as it deminishes & breaks the UK.

Of course their loss is our gain, in theory.

Did not one of our resident Unionists claim that the UK would remain even if Scotland left.

Is that not the existential crisis Unionism is having...is it 'really' a full part of the UK considering what has happened to them?

Hamsterchops

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Did not one of our resident Unionists claim that the UK would remain even if Scotland left.

Is that not the existential crisis Unionism is having...is it 'really' a full part of the UK considering what has happened to them?

It's still part of the UK, but only just by the sounds of it, and I guess if it leaves the UK then you just have Great Britain ... until Scotland leaves?

Then you have England & Wales, although there must be catchier name for that duo.