Covid 19 Part XXXIV-249,437 ROI(4,906 deaths) 120,195 NI (2,145 deaths)(01/05)Read OP

WoollyRedHat

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

There is minimal case numbers in Cork and Kerry recently.

The citizens in those counties are under the same suppression as Dublin


I really beg to differ

That's a completely different argument on a regional basis that you're suggesting. And we don't have testing centers in those counties for that very reason. Dublin is s problem I hope we can have consensus on that at least.

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

It’s only Ireland who used lockdown as a tool to avoid lockdown.

That's simply not true Fintan.

Wolf359f

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

This lockdown is different for Ireland in thats it’s already longer than the previous 3 or 4.

Maybe because wave 3 was far bigger than any we have expericened?
Did you see the hospital, ICU and deaths figures from it?

It’s only Ireland who used lockdown as a tool to avoid lockdown.

I don't see how Ireland are different than others. We don't lockdown to avoid lockdown, we do be slow to reopen to delay another surge which will end up in a lockdown.

It seems cases are just as relevant now with HCWs and vulnerable vaccinated as they were 1 year ago.

Cases are just as relevant now, however the weight has to be adjusted. 500 cases in march 2020 is more likely higher than 2021. Also the ratio of old to young has changed. And then of course the risk to vulnerable people is less now (because of vaccines) That doesn't mean you ignore new cases. Young people still end up in hospital and can still die. Yes at a smaller rate. But all these variables get added up. NPHET don't just see the raw case numbers and make recommendations.

About 800,000 first doses I believe are administered, cases are far less relevant now

604,000, you're only off by a third!

FintanMcluskey

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

That's a completely different argument on a regional basis that you're suggesting.

Didn’t you suggest that increased testing capacity would revel cases not previously detected and thus reduce case numbers via isolating cases etc, which would in turn lower restriction levels due to lower case numbers?????

We have counties with low case rates under the same suppression levels as counties with high case rates while we have banned inter county travel, so I don't see evidence low case rates will lower restrictions

Whats the quantifiable point case rates will cause restrictions to be relaxed?

WoollyRedHat

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Didn’t you suggest that increased testing capacity would revel cases not previously detected and thus reduce case numbers via isolating cases etc, which would in turn lower restriction levels due to lower case numbers?????

We have counties with low case rates under the same suppression levels as counties with high case rates while we have banned inter county travel, so I don't see evidence low case rates will lower restrictions

Whats the quantifiable point case rates will cause restrictions to be relaxed?

Yes, if numbers were reduced in high incidence areas that are resulting in us being stuck at over 500 cases a day on average.

They did so on a nationwide basis last summer, conservatively yes but they did it.


I believe they have stated if cases are reduced to circa 200 cases a day nationally as a steady state, that restrictions could then be reduced in a meaningful way.

FintanMcluskey

Wolf359f wrote: »

Cases are just as relevant now, however the weight has to be adjusted. 500 cases in march 2020 is more likely higher than 2021. Also the ratio of old to young has changed. And then of course the risk to vulnerable people is less now (because of vaccines) That doesn't mean you ignore new cases. Young people still end up in hospital and can still die. Yes at a smaller rate. But all these variables get added up. NPHET don't just see the raw case numbers and make recommendations.
604,000, you're only off by a third!

We need to put a stop to this young people dying stuff, the risks are negligible.

“NPHET don’t just see the raw case numbers and make recommendations”

What do they use to make recommendations?

FintanMcluskey

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

Yes, if numbers were reduced in high incidence areas that are resulting in us being stuck at over 500 cases a day on average.

They did so on a nationwide basis last summer, conservatively yes but they did it.


I believe they have stated if cases are reduced to circa 200 cases a day nationally as a steady state, that restrictions could then be reduced in a meaningful way.

So the rest of the country has to wait until Dublin numbers reduce.

When did they say 200 cases a day would reduce restrictions?

podgeandrodge

podgeandrodge wrote: »

So, the phases for April. These lightening of restrictions don't make fúck all difference to most people (with all due respect to people in sports etc.)



For most people, where is the payback in April?

Oh, and in case we thought there might be hope on the horizon:



"Dangerously high....next few months". FFS. That sounds worse than ever.

Hạ Long Bay wrote: »

Can't see any positives there at all apart from thousands of children going back to education, construction of housing resuming and lots of outdoor activities reopen.

You're right of course. Your cleverly worded answer forces me to acknowledge that we all have secondary school kids, we're all currently building a house, and we all avidly play tennis and golf. Selfish people like me who'd like a bit more freedom to visit 1 or 2 relations down the country, enjoy a bite to eat outdoors in a cafe (and God forbid a drink), improve on our mental health to some extent, and perhaps put a few quid towards the thousands of businesses on their knees right now, would want to cop on. :rolleyes:

Wolf359f

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

We need to put a stop to this young people dying stuff, the risks are negligible.

“NPHET don’t just see the raw case numbers and make recommendations”

What do they use to make recommendations?

It all depends on your definition on young. what do you consider young and what date rate in that 'young' cohort to you feel is acceptable?

What do NPHET use.... geez, off the top of my head and in no particular order:
Case numbers
Deaths
Hospital infections
Hospital Admissions
Hospital Capacity
ICU admissions
ICU capacity
Positivity rate in hospitals labs
Number of hospital tests
Number of lab tests
Positivity in labs
Number of GP referrals for tests

And lately:
Number of people vaccinated
Number of people tested in popup centers
Positivity rate in each centre

That entire list, but the daily and weekly change.

So yeah, maybe, just maybe more than just raw case numbers.

WoollyRedHat

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

So the rest of the country has to wait until Dublin numbers reduce.

When did they say 200 cases a day would reduce restrictions?

I personally think regional easing within reason should be considered.

Back in March: https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40241999.html

FintanMcluskey

Wolf359f wrote: »

It all depends on your definition on young. what do you consider young and what date rate in that 'young' cohort to you feel is acceptable?

What do NPHET use.... geez, off the top of my head and in no particular order:
Case numbers
Deaths
Hospital infections
Hospital Admissions
Hospital Capacity
ICU admissions
ICU capacity
Positivity rate in hospitals labs
Number of hospital tests
Number of lab tests
Positivity in labs
Number of GP referrals for tests

And lately:
Number of people vaccinated
Number of people tested in popup centers
Positivity rate in each centre

That entire list, but the daily and weekly change.

So yeah, maybe, just maybe more than just raw case numbers.

You’ve see NPHET through a different lens than reality

Previous form is a accurate forecast

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.rte.ie/amp/1153499/

The Taoiseach announced this evening that Ireland will not progress to Phase 4 of the roadmap on reopening as planned next week.

The Acting Chief Medical Officer at the Department of Health, Dr Ronan Glynn, said that the reproductive rate of the coronavirus, the R number, in Ireland is now between 1.2 and 1.8.

14 cases were announced that day

If a child spoke about the R number when cases were at 14 per day you would explain it’s silly.

But you claim it’s all about science and data

I’m not convinced

FintanMcluskey

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

I personally think regional easing within reason should be considered.

Back in March.

But they haven’t been

Wolf359f

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

You’ve see NPHET through a different lens than reality

Previous form is a accurate forecast

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.rte.ie/amp/1153499/




14 cases were announced that day

If a child spoke about the R number when cases were at 14 per day you would explain it’s silly.

But you claim it’s all about science and data

I’m not convinced

You're going back nearly 12 months assuming nothing has changed, go back further and I'm sure you will find quotes of prominent figures stating Covid will never hit the west. NPHET will always air on the side of caution, it's their mandate. The factors they used to make decisions 10 months ago are far far away from now.

Getting back to your OP, what's an acceptable death rate in the young population? NPHET seem to be near to zero, you obviously have a better plan, so what's you rate?

WoollyRedHat

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

But they haven’t been

And maybe there are reasons for why that's the case.

irishguy1983

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0403/1207730-ireland-covid19/

232 - YESSS! Has to be good news surely....

Banana Republic 1

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

There is 2 options for a refuting an argument here.

Tin foil hat wearer or Trump logic.

Bottom line is logic no longer supports your defence of lockdown to prevent lockdown.

Your trying to suggest NPHET are going to ditch the most conservative approach across the EU and test our way out of lockdown?

This is what the WHO said last year “test, test, test”

Banana Republic 1

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Ironically the South Korea government approved the rapid antigen tests, they may not have the data that NPHET do on its limitations.

Ireland is using lockdown as its primary measure to control Covid, that’s not going to change

It’s the government who made that choice not NEPHT.

irishguy1983

irishguy1983 wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0403/1207730-ireland-covid19/

232 - YESSS! Has to be good news surely....

Actually just thinking ‘Does Kerry even have a case in hospital?’ They average 4 cases a day....I’m surprised more politicians haven’t kicked up a fuss from Kerry....Kind of crazy they are on same lockdown as Dublin....

pjohnson

irishguy1983 wrote: »

Actually just thinking ‘Does Kerry even have a case in hospital?’ They average 4 cases a day....I’m surprised more politicians haven’t kicked up a fuss from Kerry....Kind of crazy they are on same lockdown as Dublin....

Seems like Dublin needs to stay in Level 5 while the rest of the country get less restrictions.

Banana Republic 1

pjohnson wrote: »

Seems like Dublin needs to stay in Level 5 while the rest of the country get less restrictions.

The main goal of politicians is to be re elected.

irishguy1983

pjohnson wrote: »

Seems like Dublin needs to stay in Level 5 while the rest of the country get less restrictions.

Not quite saying that but should possibly be looked at....Other places have higher infection rates than Dublin...

Banana Republic 1

normanoffside wrote: »

You really have no idea what you are talking about.
I know at least 5 people who caught Covid, had symptoms and isolated for 10-14 days as told but more than a month after recovery were still testing positive on a PCR test.

This is why Antigen tests should be used in such circumstances.

5 people it was six yesterday, it’s also the first time you mention antigen tests. Make up your mind cause I think you really don’t have a clue what you’re talking about.

Jim_Hodge

normanoffside wrote: »

The problem is that PCR tests catch past infections. I already know of at least 6 people who have had covid and test positive on PCR up to 3 months after they have recovered. That's also why people are now considered negative automatically after 10 days (Previously they were continually tested until negative or 'recovered').

That's why The HSPC denotify any 'case' where they were already positive in the previous 6 months.

These test centres are in many case catching people who had covid weeks or months ago.

There are so many errors in that piece. It's no wonder people are confused being misled by random pieces filled with errors. They are not considered negative after 10 days, indeed it's considered vital that a 10 day test is carried out. They are not catching cases from up to 6 months ago.

prunudo

pjohnson wrote: »

Seems like Dublin needs to stay in Level 5 while the rest of the country get less restrictions.

Joking aside, Offaly could also do with longer restrictions, their 14day /100k average seems to be getting worse.

Sweet.Science

Knine wrote: »

I have the new variant, 4 tested & 4 positive. One does not even live with us! He tested negative on Sunday but positive on Wednesday. You will need a second test!

They are getting another test on Tuesday . How did you find out you had the new variant . Our text never went into that detail

RGS

podgeandrodge wrote: »

So, the phases for April. These lightening of restrictions don't make fúck all difference to most people (with all due respect to people in sports etc.)



For most people, where is the payback in April?

Oh, and in case we thought there might be hope on the horizon:



"Dangerously high....next few months". FFS. That sounds worse than ever.

Even the opening of golf on the 26th is heavily restricted. Guidelines issued by sport Ireland have only approved casual golf. Golfers cant play competitions. I didnt realise covid was so clever it can spot the difference between a competitive golfer and a casual golfer.

For the benefit of non golfers theres no major difference between casual and competitive golf.

The majority of golf clubs have online booking, online payment systems, online score imput systems through phone apps.

BlondeBomb

irishguy1983 wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0403/1207730-ireland-covid19/

232 - YESSS! Has to be good news surely....

It is great news. Slightly up this morning (242) but we’ll see fewer discharges now till Tuesday I imagine.

Ficheall

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Bottom line is logic no longer supports your defence of lockdown to prevent lockdown.

I think the purpose of "lockdown" is to reduce cases/hospitalizations/deaths etc., as opposed to preventing lockdown.

seamus

BlondeBomb wrote: »

It is great news. Slightly up this morning (242) but we’ll see fewer discharges now till Tuesday I imagine.

Don't worry, from now until Tuesday they'll be able to report "hospital cases rise" every day.

They may even report it every morning and evening, just to be sure.

Roger_007

RGS wrote: »

Even the opening of golf on the 26th is heavily restricted. Guidelines issued by sport Ireland have only approved casual golf. Golfers cant play competitions. I didnt realise covid was so clever it can spot the difference between a competitive golfer and a casual golfer.

For the benefit of non golfers theres no major difference between casual and competitive golf.

The majority of golf clubs have online booking, online payment systems, online score imput systems through phone apps.

There is no difference between competitive and casual golf in terms of the risk involved. As you rightly pointed all bookings and score entry is online in virtually all clubs now.
The only reason why golf is not allowed is for the political optics. Golf, as everyone knows, is played only by well-heeled middle-class people and as such cannot be allowed while sports played by the lower classes are banned.:rolleyes:

Happydays2020

Roger_007 wrote: »

There is no difference between competitive and casual golf in terms of the risk involved. As you rightly pointed all bookings and score entry is online in virtually all clubs now.
The only reason why golf is not allowed is for the political optics. Golf, as everyone knows, is played only by well-heeled middle-class people and as such cannot be allowed while sports played by the lower classes are banned.:rolleyes:

I am not quite sure it is the case with golf. Lots of golf societies from all walks of life.