Covid 19 Part XXXIV-249,437 ROI(4,906 deaths) 120,195 NI (2,145 deaths)(01/05)Read OP

hynesie08

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Ironically the South Korea government approved the rapid antigen tests, they may not have the data that NPHET do on its limitations.

Ireland is using lockdown as its primary measure to control Covid, that’s not going to change

Ever? Or in the next decade? Any timeline because I'm running out of socks....

WoollyRedHat

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Ironically the South Korea government approved the rapid antigen tests, they may not have the data that NPHET do on its limitations.

Ireland is using lockdown as its primary measure to control Covid, that’s not going to change

Ireland has in the past used lockdown as primary method of controlling Covid but are now adapting additional measures but this is seen to be a negative despite proven success, I don't understand the logic here.

FintanMcluskey

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

Ireland has in the past used lockdown as primary method of controlling Covid but are now adapting additional measures but this is seen to be a negative despite proven success, I don't understand the logic here.

No they are still using lockdown, and will for months ahead.

They have just increased the capability of testing

They won’t backtrack and fast forward the plan for the next few months

Doctor Jimbob

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

Ireland has in the past used lockdown as primary method of controlling Covid but are now adapting additional measures but this is seen to be a negative despite proven success, I don't understand the logic here.

Lockdown is in the past? Great, I'll head to a restaurant 10km away tomorrow for breakfast.

WoollyRedHat

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

No they are still using lockdown, and will for months ahead.

They have just increased the capability of testing

They won’t backtrack and fast forward the plan for the next few months

If the unmitigated spread in high incidence areas is put in check the government would have no choice but to acknowledge that, I really beg to differ.

Wolf359f

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

There is 2 options for a refuting an argument here.

Tin foil hat wearer or Trump logic.

Bottom line is logic no longer supports your defence of lockdown to prevent lockdown.

Your trying to suggest NPHET are going to ditch the most conservative approach across the EU and test our way out of lockdown?

Welcome to 2021, I think we all know, apart from yourself, that vaccines are our way out of a non-return lockdown.
This lockdown is vastly different than previous ones. Previous ones, the longer you lockdown and suppress the virus, the longer you can stay open.
Now the longer you stay in lockdown (and i'm not promoting an indefinite lockdown) the more has been vaccinated. We're not testing our way out of lockdown, we're testing (the popup centers) to see what the infection rate in the community actually is.

WoollyRedHat

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Lockdown is in the past? Great, I'll head to a restaurant 10km away tomorrow for breakfast.

You have completely misrepresented my post, I did not imply lockdown is no longer current, go back and read it again.

Ha Long Bay

Wolf359f wrote: »

Welcome to 2021, I think we all know, apart from yourself, that vaccines are our way out of a non-return lockdown.
This lockdown is vastly different than previous ones. Previous ones, the longer you lockdown and suppress the virus, the longer you can stay open.
Now the longer you stay in lockdown (and i'm not promoting an indefinite lockdown) the more has been vaccinated. We're not testing our way out of lockdown, we're testing (the popup centers) to see what the infection rate in the community actually is.

We are testing and trying to keep numbers low to allow regular health services to resume as most people can see but again this is spun as a negative.


You will usually see the same argument from some posters complaining about lockdown and more testing complain about lack of general healthcare without a hint of irony.

podgeandrodge

So, the phases for April. These lightening of restrictions don't make fúck all difference to most people (with all due respect to people in sports etc.)



For most people, where is the payback in April?

Oh, and in case we thought there might be hope on the horizon:



"Dangerously high....next few months". FFS. That sounds worse than ever.

FintanMcluskey

Wolf359f wrote: »

Welcome to 2021, I think we all know, apart from yourself, that vaccines are our way out of a non-return lockdown.
This lockdown is vastly different than previous ones. Previous ones, the longer you lockdown and suppress the virus, the longer you can stay open.
Now the longer you stay in lockdown (and i'm not promoting an indefinite lockdown) the more has been vaccinated. We're not testing our way out of lockdown, we're testing (the popup centers) to see what the infection rate in the community actually is.

I’m not following, as you implied I’m a bit slow.

This lockdown is different for Ireland in thats it’s already longer than the previous 3 or 4.

It’s only Ireland who used lockdown as a tool to avoid lockdown.

As regards the vaccine, I do agree, it’s going to be a difficult task to convince NPHET and government that the vaccines work though.

It seems cases are just as relevant now with HCWs and vulnerable vaccinated as they were 1 year ago.

About 800,000 first doses I believe are administered, cases are far less relevant now

WoollyRedHat

hynesie08 wrote: »

Ever? Or in the next decade? Any timeline because I'm running out of socks....

We will remain in lockdown until morale improves according to some posters. I can't wrap my head around the nilhism that has infected some people's minds, that they truly believe that the goal of those in charge is to maintain this lockdown indefinitely, at all costs, as an affront to the general populace.

hynesie08

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

We will be in lockdown indefinitely until morale improves, according to some thread contributors.

If I run out of socks my morale is gonna be rock bottom.....

Ha Long Bay

podgeandrodge wrote: »

So, the phases for April. These lightening of restrictions don't make fúck all difference to most people (with all due respect to people in sports etc.)



For most people, where is the payback in April?

Can't see any positives there at all apart from thousands of children going back to education, construction of housing resuming and lots of outdoor activities reopen.

FintanMcluskey

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

If the unmitigated spread in high incidence areas is put in check the government would have no choice but to acknowledge that, I really beg to differ.

There is minimal case numbers in Cork and Kerry recently.

The citizens in those counties are under the same suppression as Dublin


I really beg to differ

WoollyRedHat

hynesie08 wrote: »

If I run out of socks my morale is gonna be rock bottom.....

At least you don't have growing feet, I'm guessing.

WoollyRedHat

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

There is minimal case numbers in Cork and Kerry recently.

The citizens in those counties are under the same suppression as Dublin


I really beg to differ

That's a completely different argument on a regional basis that you're suggesting. And we don't have testing centers in those counties for that very reason. Dublin is s problem I hope we can have consensus on that at least.

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

It’s only Ireland who used lockdown as a tool to avoid lockdown.

That's simply not true Fintan.

Wolf359f

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

This lockdown is different for Ireland in thats it’s already longer than the previous 3 or 4.

Maybe because wave 3 was far bigger than any we have expericened?
Did you see the hospital, ICU and deaths figures from it?

It’s only Ireland who used lockdown as a tool to avoid lockdown.

I don't see how Ireland are different than others. We don't lockdown to avoid lockdown, we do be slow to reopen to delay another surge which will end up in a lockdown.

It seems cases are just as relevant now with HCWs and vulnerable vaccinated as they were 1 year ago.

Cases are just as relevant now, however the weight has to be adjusted. 500 cases in march 2020 is more likely higher than 2021. Also the ratio of old to young has changed. And then of course the risk to vulnerable people is less now (because of vaccines) That doesn't mean you ignore new cases. Young people still end up in hospital and can still die. Yes at a smaller rate. But all these variables get added up. NPHET don't just see the raw case numbers and make recommendations.

About 800,000 first doses I believe are administered, cases are far less relevant now

604,000, you're only off by a third!

FintanMcluskey

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

That's a completely different argument on a regional basis that you're suggesting.

Didn’t you suggest that increased testing capacity would revel cases not previously detected and thus reduce case numbers via isolating cases etc, which would in turn lower restriction levels due to lower case numbers?????

We have counties with low case rates under the same suppression levels as counties with high case rates while we have banned inter county travel, so I don't see evidence low case rates will lower restrictions

Whats the quantifiable point case rates will cause restrictions to be relaxed?

WoollyRedHat

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Didn’t you suggest that increased testing capacity would revel cases not previously detected and thus reduce case numbers via isolating cases etc, which would in turn lower restriction levels due to lower case numbers?????

We have counties with low case rates under the same suppression levels as counties with high case rates while we have banned inter county travel, so I don't see evidence low case rates will lower restrictions

Whats the quantifiable point case rates will cause restrictions to be relaxed?

Yes, if numbers were reduced in high incidence areas that are resulting in us being stuck at over 500 cases a day on average.

They did so on a nationwide basis last summer, conservatively yes but they did it.


I believe they have stated if cases are reduced to circa 200 cases a day nationally as a steady state, that restrictions could then be reduced in a meaningful way.

FintanMcluskey

Wolf359f wrote: »

Cases are just as relevant now, however the weight has to be adjusted. 500 cases in march 2020 is more likely higher than 2021. Also the ratio of old to young has changed. And then of course the risk to vulnerable people is less now (because of vaccines) That doesn't mean you ignore new cases. Young people still end up in hospital and can still die. Yes at a smaller rate. But all these variables get added up. NPHET don't just see the raw case numbers and make recommendations.
604,000, you're only off by a third!

We need to put a stop to this young people dying stuff, the risks are negligible.

“NPHET don’t just see the raw case numbers and make recommendations”

What do they use to make recommendations?

FintanMcluskey

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

Yes, if numbers were reduced in high incidence areas that are resulting in us being stuck at over 500 cases a day on average.

They did so on a nationwide basis last summer, conservatively yes but they did it.


I believe they have stated if cases are reduced to circa 200 cases a day nationally as a steady state, that restrictions could then be reduced in a meaningful way.

So the rest of the country has to wait until Dublin numbers reduce.

When did they say 200 cases a day would reduce restrictions?

podgeandrodge

podgeandrodge wrote: »

So, the phases for April. These lightening of restrictions don't make fúck all difference to most people (with all due respect to people in sports etc.)



For most people, where is the payback in April?

Oh, and in case we thought there might be hope on the horizon:



"Dangerously high....next few months". FFS. That sounds worse than ever.

Hạ Long Bay wrote: »

Can't see any positives there at all apart from thousands of children going back to education, construction of housing resuming and lots of outdoor activities reopen.

You're right of course. Your cleverly worded answer forces me to acknowledge that we all have secondary school kids, we're all currently building a house, and we all avidly play tennis and golf. Selfish people like me who'd like a bit more freedom to visit 1 or 2 relations down the country, enjoy a bite to eat outdoors in a cafe (and God forbid a drink), improve on our mental health to some extent, and perhaps put a few quid towards the thousands of businesses on their knees right now, would want to cop on. :rolleyes:

Wolf359f

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

We need to put a stop to this young people dying stuff, the risks are negligible.

“NPHET don’t just see the raw case numbers and make recommendations”

What do they use to make recommendations?

It all depends on your definition on young. what do you consider young and what date rate in that 'young' cohort to you feel is acceptable?

What do NPHET use.... geez, off the top of my head and in no particular order:
Case numbers
Deaths
Hospital infections
Hospital Admissions
Hospital Capacity
ICU admissions
ICU capacity
Positivity rate in hospitals labs
Number of hospital tests
Number of lab tests
Positivity in labs
Number of GP referrals for tests

And lately:
Number of people vaccinated
Number of people tested in popup centers
Positivity rate in each centre

That entire list, but the daily and weekly change.

So yeah, maybe, just maybe more than just raw case numbers.

WoollyRedHat

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

So the rest of the country has to wait until Dublin numbers reduce.

When did they say 200 cases a day would reduce restrictions?

I personally think regional easing within reason should be considered.

Back in March: https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40241999.html

FintanMcluskey

Wolf359f wrote: »

It all depends on your definition on young. what do you consider young and what date rate in that 'young' cohort to you feel is acceptable?

What do NPHET use.... geez, off the top of my head and in no particular order:
Case numbers
Deaths
Hospital infections
Hospital Admissions
Hospital Capacity
ICU admissions
ICU capacity
Positivity rate in hospitals labs
Number of hospital tests
Number of lab tests
Positivity in labs
Number of GP referrals for tests

And lately:
Number of people vaccinated
Number of people tested in popup centers
Positivity rate in each centre

That entire list, but the daily and weekly change.

So yeah, maybe, just maybe more than just raw case numbers.

You’ve see NPHET through a different lens than reality

Previous form is a accurate forecast

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.rte.ie/amp/1153499/

The Taoiseach announced this evening that Ireland will not progress to Phase 4 of the roadmap on reopening as planned next week.

The Acting Chief Medical Officer at the Department of Health, Dr Ronan Glynn, said that the reproductive rate of the coronavirus, the R number, in Ireland is now between 1.2 and 1.8.

14 cases were announced that day

If a child spoke about the R number when cases were at 14 per day you would explain it’s silly.

But you claim it’s all about science and data

I’m not convinced

FintanMcluskey

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

I personally think regional easing within reason should be considered.

Back in March.

But they haven’t been

Wolf359f

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

You’ve see NPHET through a different lens than reality

Previous form is a accurate forecast

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.rte.ie/amp/1153499/




14 cases were announced that day

If a child spoke about the R number when cases were at 14 per day you would explain it’s silly.

But you claim it’s all about science and data

I’m not convinced

You're going back nearly 12 months assuming nothing has changed, go back further and I'm sure you will find quotes of prominent figures stating Covid will never hit the west. NPHET will always air on the side of caution, it's their mandate. The factors they used to make decisions 10 months ago are far far away from now.

Getting back to your OP, what's an acceptable death rate in the young population? NPHET seem to be near to zero, you obviously have a better plan, so what's you rate?

WoollyRedHat

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

But they haven’t been

And maybe there are reasons for why that's the case.

irishguy1983

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0403/1207730-ireland-covid19/

232 - YESSS! Has to be good news surely....

Banana Republic 1

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

There is 2 options for a refuting an argument here.

Tin foil hat wearer or Trump logic.

Bottom line is logic no longer supports your defence of lockdown to prevent lockdown.

Your trying to suggest NPHET are going to ditch the most conservative approach across the EU and test our way out of lockdown?

This is what the WHO said last year “test, test, test”