Covid 19 Part XXXIV-249,437 ROI(4,906 deaths) 120,195 NI (2,145 deaths)(01/05)Read OP

FintanMcluskey

Wolf359f wrote: »

Who has stated they don't think the vaccine works?

Those who think we will end up in the scenario we did in January if we reopen to the same level we did in December

Ha Long Bay

Wolf359f wrote: »

Totally agree, every week we wait is over 200k vaccinated in April. But it will get to a point where you can't keep people locked down and the talk has to turn to reopening. If cases keep level at ~500 a day and vaccinations stay steady at over 200k a week, then we need a road map with dates.

I think once we get that, people will be relieved and can plan and see the way out. As long as the dates are not in the second half of the year!

Yeah I think everyone can agree with that people need to see the light at the end of the tunnel. I think for now the plan laid out is fairly realistic until the start of May.

As said before I hate the restrictions but understand why they are required at the moment.

Wolf359f

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Those who think we will end up in the scenario we did in January if we reopen to the same level we did in December

Do they have a name? Have NPHET actually said in a letter to Government that vaccines do not work? There was some link to a newspaper article earlier and someone said she was on NPHET, when you scroll to the end, she actually just advises NPHET, she's not NPHET.

We could possibly have a similar scenario as we did in January, similar cases, less hospitalisation, less deaths, but it has the potential to be a cluster**** if you just say "woot, 10% have their first dose, open up and we'll be grand"

Russman

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

So you believe the R number is relevant or accurate with case numbers that low?

I didn’t suggest that, but I wouldn’t be dismissing it as rubbish just to knock NPHET.
It’s well known it’s not particularly accurate with numbers that low.
As for its relevance, that depends. Some would argue the autumn surge actually started mid summer when cases began to rise almost imperceptibly from a very low base.

Wolf359f

Hạ Long Bay wrote: »

Yeah I think everyone can agree with that people need to see the light at the end of the tunnel. I think for now the plan laid out is fairly realistic until the start of May.

As said before I hate the restrictions but understand why they are required at the moment.

I think we can look to the UK as a path to follow. Sensible reopening, decent % vaccinated before they reopen. We both have the same dominant strain, similar case numbers/hospitalizations and a close enough culture.

Be nice if the Government acknowledged the date the UK will provide over the next few weeks as a way to predict what will happen to us if we follow them ~6 weeks later etc. i.e. give us hope!

Wolf359f

Russman wrote: »

I didn’t suggest that, but I wouldn’t be dismissing it as rubbish just to knock NPHET.
It’s well known it’s not particularly accurate with numbers that low.
As for its relevance, that depends. Some would argue the autumn surge actually started mid summer when cases began to rise almost imperceptibly from a very low base.

I think caveat had exponential graphs showing surges started weeks earlier.
As case numbers do be so low it's easy to dismiss them. Plenty on here, myself included dismissed them (ah sure it's only a 10% increase week on week etc...)
1 goes to 2, 2 to 4, 4 to 8 etc.... (yeah I know cases didn't double overnight)

Russman

Wolf359f wrote: »

I think we can look to the UK as a path to follow. Sensible reopening, decent % vaccinated before they reopen. We both have the same dominant strain, similar case numbers/hospitalizations and a close enough culture.

Be nice if the Government acknowledged the date the UK will provide over the next few weeks as a way to predict what will happen to us if we follow them ~6 weeks later etc. i.e. give us hope!

I agree with the sentiment, but it’s not really apples to apples with us and the Uk. They’re going with 12 weeks between doses for all the vaccines whereas we’re doing the 4 weeks with the mRNA shots. There’s a good chance we’ll both be fully vaccinated more or less around the same time in Autumn. That’s not to suggest for a second that we stay in L5 til then of course.

TheDoctor

There's an update due tomorrow from Borris around UK reopening.

UK current roadmap for Monday week, April 12th

Earliest date on which shops, hairdressers, gyms, nail salons, libraries, and outdoor attractions such as theme parks will be allowed to reopen. But no indoor mixing of different households will be allowed.

- Outdoor hospitality can reopen, including pubs and restaurants - with the rule of six or a larger group from two households
- Customers will not have to buy a substantial meal to have an alcoholic drink and there will be no curfew but people will have to be seated when ordering and eating or drinking
- Self-catering holidays in the UK with your own household will be allowed
- Funerals of up to 30 people. Weddings and wakes of up to 15 people

UK currently reporting lowest case levels since last September so looks likely that this reopening step will go ahead in a week as planned.

Faugheen

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

I can’t understand the persistence with defending NPHET at all costs

Do you honestly believe the R number is either relevant or accurate with such low case numbers?

It's not about defending them at all costs, it's debunking the fantasy myths that are posted here from the likes of you.

And no, the R number might not be relevant or accurate at that moment in time - but if it stays at 1 then 23 cases on that day becomes 46, then 46 becomes 92 and so on.

Understanding why it's important to highlight that the R-number is close to or at 1 now?

Jinglejangle69

TheDoctor wrote: »

There's an update due tomorrow from Borris around UK reopening.

UK current roadmap for Monday week, April 12th

Earliest date on which shops, hairdressers, gyms, nail salons, libraries, and outdoor attractions such as theme parks will be allowed to reopen. But no indoor mixing of different households will be allowed.

- Outdoor hospitality can reopen, including pubs and restaurants - with the rule of six or a larger group from two households
- Customers will not have to buy a substantial meal to have an alcoholic drink and there will be no curfew but people will have to be seated when ordering and eating or drinking
- Self-catering holidays in the UK with your own household will be allowed
- Funerals of up to 30 people. Weddings and wakes of up to 15 people

UK currently reporting lowest case levels since last September so looks likely that this reopening step will go ahead in a week as planned.

Yet we are allowing mixing indoors if people are vaccinated.

They aren't.

FintanMcluskey

Faugheen wrote: »

It's not about defending them at all costs, it's debunking the fantasy myths that are posted here from the likes of you.

And no, the R number might not be relevant or accurate at that moment in time - but if it stays at 1 then 23 cases on that day becomes 46, then 46 becomes 92 and so on.

Understanding why it's important to highlight that the R-number is close to or at 1 now?

The likes of you!

Your gas!

No I won’t understand why it’s important to highlight the R number at such low numbers, it only serves to desensitise people from the public health messaging.

Russman

Wolf359f wrote: »

I think caveat had exponential graphs showing surges started weeks earlier.
As case numbers do be so low it's easy to dismiss them. Plenty on here, myself included dismissed them (ah sure it's only a 10% increase week on week etc...)
1 goes to 2, 2 to 4, 4 to 8 etc.... (yeah I know cases didn't double overnight)

It all makes me wonder (as I’m sure most do) if it’s possible to maintain covid at a low level ? Personally I think it will always be either rising or falling depending on the level of restrictions. Just by the very nature of it - someone who was previously (and may still be) involved with the planning said to me a good while back that’s it’s right in the sweet spot for causing maximum disruption, not the most deadly, a la ebola, but deadly enough, and not the most virulent, a la measles, but virulent enough.

GoneHome

Faugheen wrote: »

Don't tell me how to post. You actually post lies and bollocks then you try to patronise me.

If you don't like my posts, then ignore me. It's very f*cking simple.

And the rest of your post show exactly how little you actually know. An R number of 1 means 1 person is passing it onto one other person. An R number of 0.5 means 2 people are passing it onto one person.

If you are starting at a low base, 23 cases, then it's going to be very easy for the R number to reach 1.

What part of that do you have difficulty with?

Pop corn at the ready here

TheDoctor

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Yet we are allowing mixing indoors if people are vaccinated.

They aren't.

I havent read up fully on the UK proposal around "vaccine passports" but there does seem to be some push back from within the Tory party on whether they will be introduced.

GoneHome

Russman wrote: »

It all makes me wonder (as I’m sure most do) if it’s possible to maintain covid at a low level ? Personally I think it will always be either rising or falling depending on the level of restrictions. Just by the very nature of it - someone who was previously (and may still be) involved with the planning said to me a good while back that’s it’s right in the sweet spot for causing maximum disruption, not the most deadly, a la ebola, but deadly enough, and not the most virulent, a la measles, but virulent enough.

+1 here, someone talking sense at last

Wolf359f

Russman wrote: »

It all makes me wonder (as I’m sure most do) if it’s possible to maintain covid at a low level ? Personally I think it will always be either rising or falling depending on the level of restrictions. Just by the very nature of it - someone who was previously (and may still be) involved with the planning said to me a good while back that’s it’s right in the sweet spot for causing maximum disruption, not the most deadly, a la ebola, but deadly enough, and not the most virulent, a la measles, but virulent enough.

Pre-UK variant we had it low in the summer when we had decent weather (yes not everything was open)
In the Autumn, we could have kept it in check in low hundreds, but then as soon as a holiday comes around, the risk increases (we had an issue with cases remaining stubbornly high around Halloween). But the new variant seems to have turned that to dust!

Ha Long Bay

Russman wrote: »

It all makes me wonder (as I’m sure most do) if it’s possible to maintain covid at a low level ? Personally I think it will always be either rising or falling depending on the level of restrictions. Just by the very nature of it - someone who was previously (and may still be) involved with the planning said to me a good while back that’s it’s right in the sweet spot for causing maximum disruption, not the most deadly, a la ebola, but deadly enough, and not the most virulent, a la measles, but virulent enough.

The main reason we care about cases at the moment is due to the pressure it puts on the healthcare system. As seen the world over it can overwhelm them in weeks and prevents regular healthcare which has serious side affects.

This is the primary reason that lockdowns were used during this pandemic. As much as everyone hated them they are shown to work.

Once the population are vaccinated cases won't matter as they dont impact hospitals similar to people getting a cold etc.

Russman

Hạ Long Bay wrote: »

The main reason we care about cases at the moment is due to the pressure it puts on the healthcare system. As seen the world over it can overwhelm them in weeks and prevents regular healthcare which has serious side affects.

This is the primary reason that lockdowns were used during this pandemic. As much as everyone hated them they are shown to work.

Once the population are vaccinated cases won't matter as they dont impact hospitals similar to people getting a cold etc.

100%

Indestructable

France seems to be in a bit of bother again, 60k cases recorded today. They're having a similar surge the UK saw a few months ago.

Problem is they're fed up of restrictions with a really high rate of infection, at least we are fed up of them with a relatively low rate.

FintanMcluskey

Wolf359f wrote: »

We could possibly have a similar scenario as we did in January, similar cases, less hospitalisation, less deaths, but it has the potential to be a cluster**** if you just say "woot, 10% have their first dose, open up and we'll be grand"

So not actually like January then

We don’t even need to fully open up, that a long long time off, but we can relax a significant amount more with risking something like January

FintanMcluskey

GoneHome wrote: »

Pop corn at the ready here

I hope there is no children reading

The language is disgraceful

Widdensushi

Indestructable wrote: »

France seems to be in a bit of bother again, 60k cases recorded today. They're having a similar surge the UK saw a few months ago.

Problem is they're fed up of restrictions with a really high rate of infection, at least we are fed up of them with a relatively low rate.

They had some data problems the day before meaning only 20k cases were reported, I am not saying 40k cases a day isn't high or that they could be at 60k soon, but the 60k today is not for a day.

FintanMcluskey

Widdensushi wrote: »

They had some data problems the day before meaning only 20k cases were reported, I am not saying 40k cases a day isn't high or that they could be at 60k soon, but the 60k today is not for a day.

They just went into a 4 week light lockdown

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.france24.com/en/france/20210404-france-enters-four-week-covid-19-light-lockdown

The definition of essential businesses is far more expansive than it was during the strict first lockdown in spring 2020: Bookshops, hairdressers, florists chocolate shops, music shops and car dealerships can all remain open.

Ha Long Bay

Russman wrote: »

100%

We are very lucky to live in a generation where science has been the star of the show.

This time last year we were queueing for an hour to go to a supermarket and have some creepy voiceover playing in Dunne's to having 1 million vaccines distributed next week.

This summer will be one to never forget for all the right reasons.

Ha Long Bay

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

They just went into a 4 week light lockdown

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.france24.com/en/france/20210404-france-enters-four-week-covid-19-light-lockdown

Would you call the 7pm curfew a light lockdown if it was implemented here?

Wolf359f

Hạ Long Bay wrote: »

Would you call the 7pm curfew a light lockdown if it was implemented here?

Plenty here would love a 7pm curfew if it meant hairdressers could open!

FintanMcluskey

Hạ Long Bay wrote: »

Would you call the 7pm curfew a light lockdown if it was implemented here?

No problem

Right now it’s been a 4 month curfew

Work - home - repeat

There is nowhere to go after 7pm in Ireland now anyway, I used to frequent the pool back when it was open

Ha Long Bay

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

No problem

Right now it’s been a 4 month curfew

Work - home - repeat

There is nowhere to go after 7pm in Ireland now anyway, I used to frequent the pool back when it was open

I think a curfew is the most restrictive measure of all restrictions and glad it was never implemented here.

To know that after 7pm you cannot leave your house until the following morning would feel a lot more restrictive than anything we have seen so far.

Your point on nowhere to go after 7pm is yet again more negative false news that you continue to repeat on these threads.

FintanMcluskey

Hạ Long Bay wrote: »

I think a curfew is the most restrictive measure of all restrictions and glad it was never implemented here.

To know that after 7pm you cannot leave your house until the following morning would feel a lot more restrictive than anything we have seen so far.

Your point on nowhere to go after 7pm is yet again more negative false news that you continue to repeat on these threads.

Negative false news?

Christ such immaturity, do you think that adds to your credibility?

There is no social outlets open, no gyms or pools open, and it’s been freezing cold for the last 4 months with only recent improvements in the weather.

So personally I’d rather more business open during the day, than not open at all, it will also lower the economic cost of all of this

purplefields

Russman wrote: »

It all makes me wonder (as I’m sure most do) if it’s possible to maintain covid at a low level ? Personally I think it will always be either rising or falling depending on the level of restrictions. Just by the very nature of it - someone who was previously (and may still be) involved with the planning said to me a good while back that’s it’s right in the sweet spot for causing maximum disruption, not the most deadly, a la ebola, but deadly enough, and not the most virulent, a la measles, but virulent enough.

Indeed. Ebola kills too quickly for people to pass on.

Mathematically, you'd have to keep the R value at exactly one to keep the level of cases the same. This would pretty much be impossible. Maybe oscillating just above and just below.

The thing with 'exponential increase' is that mathematically it's always exponentially increasing if R is above one. It just means that the rate of increase has an exponent. Like two squared has an exponent of two.

The rate doesn't 'become' exponential. It always is.
That's how it creeps along and then suddenly... wham.