Covid 19 Part XXXIV-249,437 ROI(4,906 deaths) 120,195 NI (2,145 deaths)(01/05)Read OP

Faugheen

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

I struggle with the lack of appreciation for what’s being sacrificed by this stage.

5 of the last 6 months restricted to 5km from home, going to change to only 10km until Summer likely.

hahahaha "I wAtCh AlL oF tHe BrIeFiNgS."

Found out for chatting absolute bollocks, again.

pjohnson

stephenjmcd wrote: »

2 protests expected at the same time.

1 anti lockdown, anti vax, anti mask etc

The other a counter protest against , fascists, anti-mask, anti-vaccine protesters from "taking over" has also been organised.

So yeah fun afternoon for the Gardai

8 arrests today.

Faugheen

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

What bit was quantifiable for removing mitigation?



It was more of this type nonsense

Also, just to go back on this.

Out of everything said on Wednesday's briefing, which you claimed to watch, this is the only thing you can pick out?

You're actually a bigger fearmonger than George Lee. The briefing on Wednesday highlighted exactly why they were saying that and how vaccinations will impact on the R number.

I don't even know why I'm bothering. You don't want to listen, you want to whip up fear and get people to turn against a bunch of civil servants.

FintanMcluskey

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

You what?????


Have you been keeping up to date at all?

Apologies 20km

Wolf359f

Hạ Long Bay wrote: »

We currently have just over 250k people fully vaccinated. The rollout is accelerating with greater supply and over the next month or two this will all be factored into opening things back up.


If we rush it there is a risk of a 4th wave and as we have seen before this can take 3-4 months to get under control so instead of things opening we would be shut for the summer which no one wants.

Some people think because we're say 6 weeks behind the UK with vaccinations, we should open faster and before the UK. It's madness.

The UK & USA will be 2 to look at. UK taking a cautious approach, but haven't exactly reopened yet, the USA a little behind them on the vaccine front (1st doses) and already hospital admissions are increasing and the likes of IL looking like entering a 4th wave.

DellyBelly

Aph2016 wrote: »

Adherence to the restrictions must be at an all time low. With the good weather and Easter weekend, people are having get togethers, breaking the 5km limit, fresh haircuts all over the place, tonnes of businesses are back working regardless of being essential or not.

Expedite the reduction or end of these restrictions and let us live our lives. We are in a far better place than this time last year with the vaccines that have already been administered.

Have to say I was so tempted to go to the beach today which is just outside my 5km limit. The weather was fantastic but now only have to wait for another week.. Can't wait

Ha Long Bay

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Apologies 20km

I even provided a link to the statement in my reply and you still providing misinformation.


Travel:

You can travel within your county or within 20km of your home if crossing county boundaries

Faugheen

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Apologies 20km

Still incorrect.

FintanMcluskey

Faugheen wrote: »

hahahaha "I wAtCh AlL oF tHe BrIeFiNgS."

Found out for chatting absolute bollocks, again.

Faugheen wrote: »

Also, just to go back on this.

Out of everything said on Wednesday's briefing, which you claimed to watch, this is the only thing you can pick out?

You're actually a bigger fearmonger than George Lee. The briefing on Wednesday highlighted exactly why they were saying that and how vaccinations will impact on the R number.

I don't even know why I'm bothering. You don't want to listen, you want to whip up fear and get people to turn against a bunch of civil servants.

Will you try stop cursing in so many of your posts, it comes across poorly.

NPHET talking about the R number?

They lost credibility on their understanding of the R number last July

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0709/1152238-covid19-coronavirus-ireland/

The National Public Health Emergency Team has said there is an "immediate need to take care and caution", as the reproductive rate of Covid-19 in Ireland now stands at, or above, 1.

That was what NPHET were discussing on a day when Ireland had 23 cases

Can’t say I’ve great confidence in them reading that rubbish

Jim_Hodge

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Apologies 20km

And that's not correct either.

:rolleyes:

Ha Long Bay

Wolf359f wrote: »

Some people think because we're say 6 weeks behind the UK with vaccinations, we should open faster and before the UK. It's madness.

The UK & USA will be 2 to look at. UK taking a cautious approach, but haven't exactly reopened yet, the USA a little behind them on the vaccine front (1st doses) and already hospital admissions are increasing and the likes of IL looking like entering a 4th wave.

We are in a good position at the moment with hospital numbers decreasing, vaccine rollout ramping up and important things like schools open and more construction back in next few weeks.

It would be ridiculous to throw all that away now and risk being locked down during the summer. The last few months have been tough on everyone.

Russman

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Will you try stop cursing in so many of your posts, it comes across poorly.

NPHET talking about the R number?

They lost credibility on their understanding of the R number last July

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0709/1152238-covid19-coronavirus-ireland/

That was what NPHET were discussing on a day when Ireland had 23 cases

Can’t say I’ve great confidence in them reading that rubbish

So, as cases were increasing, the R number was greater than or at 1, and this is rubbish how ? I’ll grant you it was from a low base.

FintanMcluskey

Aph2016 wrote: »

Adherence to the restrictions must be at an all time low. With the good weather and Easter weekend, people are having get togethers, breaking the 5km limit, fresh haircuts all over the place, tonnes of businesses are back working regardless of being essential or not.

Expedite the reduction or end of these restrictions and let us live our lives. We are in a far better place than this time last year with the vaccines that have already been administered.

Of course we are in a far better place

Even vaccinating the HCWs is a massive boost for preventing transmission in hospital

About 650,000 first doses gone in

But there is still a justification for continuing the cautious reopening by people who don’t think the vaccine will work

It’s time to change our focus onto the cost of all this with immediate effect

FintanMcluskey

Russman wrote: »

So, as cases were increasing, the R number was greater than or at 1, and this is rubbish how ? I’ll grant you it was from a low base.

So you believe the R number is relevant or accurate with case numbers that low?

Wolf359f

Hạ Long Bay wrote: »

We are in a good position at the moment with hospital numbers decreasing, vaccine rollout ramping up and important things like schools open and more construction back in next few weeks.

It would be ridiculous to throw all that away now and risk being locked down during the summer. The last few months have been tough on everyone.

Totally agree, every week we wait is over 200k vaccinated in April. But it will get to a point where you can't keep people locked down and the talk has to turn to reopening. If cases keep level at ~500 a day and vaccinations stay steady at over 200k a week, then we need a road map with dates.

I think once we get that, people will be relieved and can plan and see the way out. As long as the dates are not in the second half of the year!

Faugheen

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Will you try stop cursing in so many of your posts, it comes across poorly.

NPHET talking about the R number?

They lost credibility on their understanding of the R number last July

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0709/1152238-covid19-coronavirus-ireland/




That was what NPHET were discussing on a day when Ireland had 23 cases

Can’t say I’ve great confidence in them reading that rubbish

Don't tell me how to post. You actually post lies and bollocks then you try to patronise me.

If you don't like my posts, then ignore me. It's very f*cking simple.

And the rest of your post show exactly how little you actually know. An R number of 1 means 1 person is passing it onto one other person. An R number of 0.5 means 2 people are passing it onto one person.

If you are starting at a low base, 23 cases, then it's going to be very easy for the R number to reach 1.

What part of that do you have difficulty with?

Wolf359f

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Of course we are in a far better place

Even vaccinating the HCWs is a massive boost for preventing transmission in hospital

About 650,000 first doses gone in

But there is still a justification for continuing the cautious reopening by people who don’t think the vaccine will work

It’s time to change our focus onto the cost of all this with immediate effect

Who has stated they don't think the vaccine works?

FintanMcluskey

Faugheen wrote: »

Don't tell me how to post. You actually post lies and bollocks then you try to patronise me.

If you don't like my posts, then ignore me. It's very f*cking simple.

And the rest of your post show exactly how little you actually know. An R number of 1 means 1 person is passing it onto one other person. An R number of 0.5 means 2 people are passing it onto one person.

If you are starting at a low base, 23 cases, then it's going to be very easy for the R number to reach 1.

What part of that do you have difficulty with?

I can’t understand the persistence with defending NPHET at all costs

Do you honestly believe the R number is either relevant or accurate with such low case numbers?

FintanMcluskey

Wolf359f wrote: »

Who has stated they don't think the vaccine works?

Those who think we will end up in the scenario we did in January if we reopen to the same level we did in December

Ha Long Bay

Wolf359f wrote: »

Totally agree, every week we wait is over 200k vaccinated in April. But it will get to a point where you can't keep people locked down and the talk has to turn to reopening. If cases keep level at ~500 a day and vaccinations stay steady at over 200k a week, then we need a road map with dates.

I think once we get that, people will be relieved and can plan and see the way out. As long as the dates are not in the second half of the year!

Yeah I think everyone can agree with that people need to see the light at the end of the tunnel. I think for now the plan laid out is fairly realistic until the start of May.

As said before I hate the restrictions but understand why they are required at the moment.

Wolf359f

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Those who think we will end up in the scenario we did in January if we reopen to the same level we did in December

Do they have a name? Have NPHET actually said in a letter to Government that vaccines do not work? There was some link to a newspaper article earlier and someone said she was on NPHET, when you scroll to the end, she actually just advises NPHET, she's not NPHET.

We could possibly have a similar scenario as we did in January, similar cases, less hospitalisation, less deaths, but it has the potential to be a cluster**** if you just say "woot, 10% have their first dose, open up and we'll be grand"

Russman

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

So you believe the R number is relevant or accurate with case numbers that low?

I didn’t suggest that, but I wouldn’t be dismissing it as rubbish just to knock NPHET.
It’s well known it’s not particularly accurate with numbers that low.
As for its relevance, that depends. Some would argue the autumn surge actually started mid summer when cases began to rise almost imperceptibly from a very low base.

Wolf359f

Hạ Long Bay wrote: »

Yeah I think everyone can agree with that people need to see the light at the end of the tunnel. I think for now the plan laid out is fairly realistic until the start of May.

As said before I hate the restrictions but understand why they are required at the moment.

I think we can look to the UK as a path to follow. Sensible reopening, decent % vaccinated before they reopen. We both have the same dominant strain, similar case numbers/hospitalizations and a close enough culture.

Be nice if the Government acknowledged the date the UK will provide over the next few weeks as a way to predict what will happen to us if we follow them ~6 weeks later etc. i.e. give us hope!

Wolf359f

Russman wrote: »

I didn’t suggest that, but I wouldn’t be dismissing it as rubbish just to knock NPHET.
It’s well known it’s not particularly accurate with numbers that low.
As for its relevance, that depends. Some would argue the autumn surge actually started mid summer when cases began to rise almost imperceptibly from a very low base.

I think caveat had exponential graphs showing surges started weeks earlier.
As case numbers do be so low it's easy to dismiss them. Plenty on here, myself included dismissed them (ah sure it's only a 10% increase week on week etc...)
1 goes to 2, 2 to 4, 4 to 8 etc.... (yeah I know cases didn't double overnight)

Russman

Wolf359f wrote: »

I think we can look to the UK as a path to follow. Sensible reopening, decent % vaccinated before they reopen. We both have the same dominant strain, similar case numbers/hospitalizations and a close enough culture.

Be nice if the Government acknowledged the date the UK will provide over the next few weeks as a way to predict what will happen to us if we follow them ~6 weeks later etc. i.e. give us hope!

I agree with the sentiment, but it’s not really apples to apples with us and the Uk. They’re going with 12 weeks between doses for all the vaccines whereas we’re doing the 4 weeks with the mRNA shots. There’s a good chance we’ll both be fully vaccinated more or less around the same time in Autumn. That’s not to suggest for a second that we stay in L5 til then of course.

TheDoctor

There's an update due tomorrow from Borris around UK reopening.

UK current roadmap for Monday week, April 12th

Earliest date on which shops, hairdressers, gyms, nail salons, libraries, and outdoor attractions such as theme parks will be allowed to reopen. But no indoor mixing of different households will be allowed.

- Outdoor hospitality can reopen, including pubs and restaurants - with the rule of six or a larger group from two households
- Customers will not have to buy a substantial meal to have an alcoholic drink and there will be no curfew but people will have to be seated when ordering and eating or drinking
- Self-catering holidays in the UK with your own household will be allowed
- Funerals of up to 30 people. Weddings and wakes of up to 15 people

UK currently reporting lowest case levels since last September so looks likely that this reopening step will go ahead in a week as planned.

Faugheen

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

I can’t understand the persistence with defending NPHET at all costs

Do you honestly believe the R number is either relevant or accurate with such low case numbers?

It's not about defending them at all costs, it's debunking the fantasy myths that are posted here from the likes of you.

And no, the R number might not be relevant or accurate at that moment in time - but if it stays at 1 then 23 cases on that day becomes 46, then 46 becomes 92 and so on.

Understanding why it's important to highlight that the R-number is close to or at 1 now?

Jinglejangle69

TheDoctor wrote: »

There's an update due tomorrow from Borris around UK reopening.

UK current roadmap for Monday week, April 12th

Earliest date on which shops, hairdressers, gyms, nail salons, libraries, and outdoor attractions such as theme parks will be allowed to reopen. But no indoor mixing of different households will be allowed.

- Outdoor hospitality can reopen, including pubs and restaurants - with the rule of six or a larger group from two households
- Customers will not have to buy a substantial meal to have an alcoholic drink and there will be no curfew but people will have to be seated when ordering and eating or drinking
- Self-catering holidays in the UK with your own household will be allowed
- Funerals of up to 30 people. Weddings and wakes of up to 15 people

UK currently reporting lowest case levels since last September so looks likely that this reopening step will go ahead in a week as planned.

Yet we are allowing mixing indoors if people are vaccinated.

They aren't.

FintanMcluskey

Faugheen wrote: »

It's not about defending them at all costs, it's debunking the fantasy myths that are posted here from the likes of you.

And no, the R number might not be relevant or accurate at that moment in time - but if it stays at 1 then 23 cases on that day becomes 46, then 46 becomes 92 and so on.

Understanding why it's important to highlight that the R-number is close to or at 1 now?

The likes of you!

Your gas!

No I won’t understand why it’s important to highlight the R number at such low numbers, it only serves to desensitise people from the public health messaging.

Russman

Wolf359f wrote: »

I think caveat had exponential graphs showing surges started weeks earlier.
As case numbers do be so low it's easy to dismiss them. Plenty on here, myself included dismissed them (ah sure it's only a 10% increase week on week etc...)
1 goes to 2, 2 to 4, 4 to 8 etc.... (yeah I know cases didn't double overnight)

It all makes me wonder (as I’m sure most do) if it’s possible to maintain covid at a low level ? Personally I think it will always be either rising or falling depending on the level of restrictions. Just by the very nature of it - someone who was previously (and may still be) involved with the planning said to me a good while back that’s it’s right in the sweet spot for causing maximum disruption, not the most deadly, a la ebola, but deadly enough, and not the most virulent, a la measles, but virulent enough.