Covid 19 Part XXXIV-249,437 ROI(4,906 deaths) 120,195 NI (2,145 deaths)(01/05)Read OP

GoneHome

Faugheen wrote: »

Don't tell me how to post. You actually post lies and bollocks then you try to patronise me.

If you don't like my posts, then ignore me. It's very f*cking simple.

And the rest of your post show exactly how little you actually know. An R number of 1 means 1 person is passing it onto one other person. An R number of 0.5 means 2 people are passing it onto one person.

If you are starting at a low base, 23 cases, then it's going to be very easy for the R number to reach 1.

What part of that do you have difficulty with?

Pop corn at the ready here

TheDoctor

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Yet we are allowing mixing indoors if people are vaccinated.

They aren't.

I havent read up fully on the UK proposal around "vaccine passports" but there does seem to be some push back from within the Tory party on whether they will be introduced.

GoneHome

Russman wrote: »

It all makes me wonder (as I’m sure most do) if it’s possible to maintain covid at a low level ? Personally I think it will always be either rising or falling depending on the level of restrictions. Just by the very nature of it - someone who was previously (and may still be) involved with the planning said to me a good while back that’s it’s right in the sweet spot for causing maximum disruption, not the most deadly, a la ebola, but deadly enough, and not the most virulent, a la measles, but virulent enough.

+1 here, someone talking sense at last

Wolf359f

Russman wrote: »

It all makes me wonder (as I’m sure most do) if it’s possible to maintain covid at a low level ? Personally I think it will always be either rising or falling depending on the level of restrictions. Just by the very nature of it - someone who was previously (and may still be) involved with the planning said to me a good while back that’s it’s right in the sweet spot for causing maximum disruption, not the most deadly, a la ebola, but deadly enough, and not the most virulent, a la measles, but virulent enough.

Pre-UK variant we had it low in the summer when we had decent weather (yes not everything was open)
In the Autumn, we could have kept it in check in low hundreds, but then as soon as a holiday comes around, the risk increases (we had an issue with cases remaining stubbornly high around Halloween). But the new variant seems to have turned that to dust!

Ha Long Bay

Russman wrote: »

It all makes me wonder (as I’m sure most do) if it’s possible to maintain covid at a low level ? Personally I think it will always be either rising or falling depending on the level of restrictions. Just by the very nature of it - someone who was previously (and may still be) involved with the planning said to me a good while back that’s it’s right in the sweet spot for causing maximum disruption, not the most deadly, a la ebola, but deadly enough, and not the most virulent, a la measles, but virulent enough.

The main reason we care about cases at the moment is due to the pressure it puts on the healthcare system. As seen the world over it can overwhelm them in weeks and prevents regular healthcare which has serious side affects.

This is the primary reason that lockdowns were used during this pandemic. As much as everyone hated them they are shown to work.

Once the population are vaccinated cases won't matter as they dont impact hospitals similar to people getting a cold etc.

Russman

Hạ Long Bay wrote: »

The main reason we care about cases at the moment is due to the pressure it puts on the healthcare system. As seen the world over it can overwhelm them in weeks and prevents regular healthcare which has serious side affects.

This is the primary reason that lockdowns were used during this pandemic. As much as everyone hated them they are shown to work.

Once the population are vaccinated cases won't matter as they dont impact hospitals similar to people getting a cold etc.

100%

Indestructable

France seems to be in a bit of bother again, 60k cases recorded today. They're having a similar surge the UK saw a few months ago.

Problem is they're fed up of restrictions with a really high rate of infection, at least we are fed up of them with a relatively low rate.

FintanMcluskey

Wolf359f wrote: »

We could possibly have a similar scenario as we did in January, similar cases, less hospitalisation, less deaths, but it has the potential to be a cluster**** if you just say "woot, 10% have their first dose, open up and we'll be grand"

So not actually like January then

We don’t even need to fully open up, that a long long time off, but we can relax a significant amount more with risking something like January

FintanMcluskey

GoneHome wrote: »

Pop corn at the ready here

I hope there is no children reading

The language is disgraceful

Widdensushi

Indestructable wrote: »

France seems to be in a bit of bother again, 60k cases recorded today. They're having a similar surge the UK saw a few months ago.

Problem is they're fed up of restrictions with a really high rate of infection, at least we are fed up of them with a relatively low rate.

They had some data problems the day before meaning only 20k cases were reported, I am not saying 40k cases a day isn't high or that they could be at 60k soon, but the 60k today is not for a day.

FintanMcluskey

Widdensushi wrote: »

They had some data problems the day before meaning only 20k cases were reported, I am not saying 40k cases a day isn't high or that they could be at 60k soon, but the 60k today is not for a day.

They just went into a 4 week light lockdown

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.france24.com/en/france/20210404-france-enters-four-week-covid-19-light-lockdown

The definition of essential businesses is far more expansive than it was during the strict first lockdown in spring 2020: Bookshops, hairdressers, florists chocolate shops, music shops and car dealerships can all remain open.

Ha Long Bay

Russman wrote: »

100%

We are very lucky to live in a generation where science has been the star of the show.

This time last year we were queueing for an hour to go to a supermarket and have some creepy voiceover playing in Dunne's to having 1 million vaccines distributed next week.

This summer will be one to never forget for all the right reasons.

Ha Long Bay

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

They just went into a 4 week light lockdown

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.france24.com/en/france/20210404-france-enters-four-week-covid-19-light-lockdown

Would you call the 7pm curfew a light lockdown if it was implemented here?

Wolf359f

Hạ Long Bay wrote: »

Would you call the 7pm curfew a light lockdown if it was implemented here?

Plenty here would love a 7pm curfew if it meant hairdressers could open!

FintanMcluskey

Hạ Long Bay wrote: »

Would you call the 7pm curfew a light lockdown if it was implemented here?

No problem

Right now it’s been a 4 month curfew

Work - home - repeat

There is nowhere to go after 7pm in Ireland now anyway, I used to frequent the pool back when it was open

Ha Long Bay

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

No problem

Right now it’s been a 4 month curfew

Work - home - repeat

There is nowhere to go after 7pm in Ireland now anyway, I used to frequent the pool back when it was open

I think a curfew is the most restrictive measure of all restrictions and glad it was never implemented here.

To know that after 7pm you cannot leave your house until the following morning would feel a lot more restrictive than anything we have seen so far.

Your point on nowhere to go after 7pm is yet again more negative false news that you continue to repeat on these threads.

FintanMcluskey

Hạ Long Bay wrote: »

I think a curfew is the most restrictive measure of all restrictions and glad it was never implemented here.

To know that after 7pm you cannot leave your house until the following morning would feel a lot more restrictive than anything we have seen so far.

Your point on nowhere to go after 7pm is yet again more negative false news that you continue to repeat on these threads.

Negative false news?

Christ such immaturity, do you think that adds to your credibility?

There is no social outlets open, no gyms or pools open, and it’s been freezing cold for the last 4 months with only recent improvements in the weather.

So personally I’d rather more business open during the day, than not open at all, it will also lower the economic cost of all of this

purplefields

Russman wrote: »

It all makes me wonder (as I’m sure most do) if it’s possible to maintain covid at a low level ? Personally I think it will always be either rising or falling depending on the level of restrictions. Just by the very nature of it - someone who was previously (and may still be) involved with the planning said to me a good while back that’s it’s right in the sweet spot for causing maximum disruption, not the most deadly, a la ebola, but deadly enough, and not the most virulent, a la measles, but virulent enough.

Indeed. Ebola kills too quickly for people to pass on.

Mathematically, you'd have to keep the R value at exactly one to keep the level of cases the same. This would pretty much be impossible. Maybe oscillating just above and just below.

The thing with 'exponential increase' is that mathematically it's always exponentially increasing if R is above one. It just means that the rate of increase has an exponent. Like two squared has an exponent of two.

The rate doesn't 'become' exponential. It always is.
That's how it creeps along and then suddenly... wham.

Leftwaffe

DellyBelly wrote: »

Have to say I was so tempted to go to the beach today which is just outside my 5km limit. The weather was fantastic but now only have to wait for another week.. Can't wait

Jesus you are relentless

GoneHome

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

No problem

Right now it’s been a 4 month curfew

Work - home - repeat

There is nowhere to go after 7pm in Ireland now anyway, I used to frequent the pool back when it was open

I'd have no problem with a 7 pm curfew either, and it might put a stop to the under 30s gathering and spreading covid for all in tense and purposes, it possibly is the way to go to put a stop to the rising case numbers

Widdensushi

GoneHome wrote: »

I'd have no problem with a 7 pm curfew either, and it might put a stop to the under 30s gathering and spreading covid for all in tense and purposes, it possibly is the way to go to put a stop to the rising case numbers

Less cases this week than last week.

Ha Long Bay

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Negative false news?

Christ such immaturity, do you think that adds to your credibility?

There is no social outlets open, no gyms or pools open, and it’s been freezing cold for the last 4 months with only recent improvements in the weather.

So personally I’d rather more business open during the day, than not open at all, it will also lower the economic cost of all of this

Example of negative false news which you haven't corrected yet to ensure other people don't read as fact.

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

I struggle with the lack of appreciation for what’s being sacrificed by this stage.

5 of the last 6 months restricted to 5km from home, going to change to only 10km until Summer likely.

And the belief that even making small changes will cause a wave seen when nobody was vaccinated, all socialising occurred indoors and a few thousand came to the country from overseas.

On this comment "Christ such immaturity, do you think that adds to your credibility?"


I think my replies have been fairly balanced can you point out where I have been immature or lacked credibility?

sonofenoch

GoneHome wrote: »

I'd have no problem with a 7 pm curfew either, and it might put a stop to the under 30s gathering and spreading covid for all in tense and purposes, it possibly is the way to go to put a stop to the rising case numbers

Over 30's can stay out till 8

FintanMcluskey

GoneHome wrote: »

I'd have no problem with a 7 pm curfew either, and it might put a stop to the under 30s gathering and spreading covid for all in tense and purposes, it possibly is the way to go to put a stop to the rising case numbers

I’d certainly have no problem with a 4 week one when compared to 4 months of what Ireland have suffered

GoneHome

sonofenoch wrote: »

Over 30's can stay out till 8

7.30

FintanMcluskey

Hạ Long Bay wrote: »

Example of negative false news which you haven't corrected yet to ensure other people don't read as fact.






On this comment "Christ such immaturity, do you think that adds to your credibility?"


I think my replies have been fairly balanced can you point out where I have been immature or lacked credibility?

I’ve apologised for that I’ll edit now.

Ha Long Bay

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

I’ve apologised for that I’ll edit now.

And your other point?


"Christ such immaturity, do you think that adds to your credibility?"


I think my replies have been fairly balanced can you point out where I have been immature or lacked credibility?

jhegarty

Hạ Long Bay wrote: »

Would you call the 7pm curfew a light lockdown if it was implemented here?

They get 10k between 6AM to 7PM. And between 7PM and 6AM they are allowed 1k with a pet.

Overall doesn't look any stricter to what we have had for the last 3 months.

Leftwaffe

Leftwaffe wrote: »

Jesus you are relentless

It’s a wind-up account

Ha Long Bay

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

I’ve apologised for that I’ll edit now.

You edited it wrong. Yet more false information. Hard to take anything you post serious if you can't provide genuine information.



"5 of the last 6 months restricted to 5km from home, going to change to only 20km until Summer likely."




https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/81029-government-announces-phased-easing-of-public-health-restrictions/