Covid 19 Part XXXIV-249,437 ROI(4,906 deaths) 120,195 NI (2,145 deaths)(01/05)Read OP

Jinglejangle69

wadacrack wrote: »

11 days of schools closing and cases dropping now again. The pattern is clear the virus loves those wreck less out of control playdates !

We will know more Wednesday or Thursday.

Cases always low at the weekend. Way less testing

AdamD

Surely hitting a point where 1 in 6 adults has gotten a dose of a vaccine, which are now proven to severely reduce transmission, will begin to slowly impact the case figures?

Assuming it takes a couple of weeks to kick in, could you say for example in 2 weeks time that those 1 in 6 are highly unlikely to transmit the virus so that's a certain fraction off your R rate? Obviously opening up and other factors can also increase it

Batattackrat

AdamD wrote: »

Surely hitting a point where 1 in 6 adults has gotten a dose of a vaccine, which are now proven to severely reduce transmission, will begin to slowly impact the case figures?

Assuming it takes a couple of weeks to kick in, could you say for example in 2 weeks time that those 1 in 6 are highly unlikely to transmit the virus so that's a certain fraction off your R rate? Obviously opening up and other factors can also increase it

That's exactly it, I think the government are giving the worst projections possible when it's coming to restrictions.

I can see us opening up to Level 2 pretty quickly especially with the UK starting to open up.

Start of June I reckon after the bank holiday.

seamus

AdamD wrote: »

Surely hitting a point where 1 in 6 adults has gotten a dose of a vaccine, which are now proven to severely reduce transmission, will begin to slowly impact the case figures?

Assuming it takes a couple of weeks to kick in, could you say for example in 2 weeks time that those 1 in 6 are highly unlikely to transmit the virus so that's a certain fraction off your R rate? Obviously opening up and other factors can also increase it

I wouldn't expect it to hit case numbers. 1 in 6 is a statistically tiny amount for a highly transmissible disease, it won't affect R numbers at all.

However, when that 1 in 6 is heavily weighted towards vulnerable groups and those who spread it to vulnerable groups (such as frontline staff), I would expect to see hospital & ICU numbers continue falling with little connection to the case numbers.

AdamD

seamus wrote: »

I wouldn't expect it to hit case numbers. 1 in 6 is a statistically tiny amount for a highly transmissible disease, it won't affect R numbers at all.

However, when that 1 in 6 is heavily weighted towards vulnerable groups and those who spread it to vulnerable groups (such as frontline staff), I would expect to see hospital & ICU numbers continue falling with little connection to the case numbers.

What am I missing here for 1 in 6 to not be statistically significant? In two weeks time a 6th of people will be unlikely to either test positive or pass it on. How does reducing those by 16% not have an effect on the r number?

seamus

AdamD wrote: »

What am I missing here for 1 in 6 to not be statistically significant? In two weeks time a 6th of people will be unlikely to either test positive or pass it on. How does reducing those by 16% not have an effect on the r number?

It's just more complex than that tbh. I don't understand it fully. 16% vaccinated won't reduce the R0 by 16%. Especially when the entire population is under containment measures and the immunised population are the least likely to be mixing.

If there were no restrictions and it was a free-for-all then we would likely see some impact on case numbers from that 16%.

https://ibmathsresources.com/2014/05/17/modelling-infectious-diseases/



The middle image shows a small amount of immunisation and while the actual number of cases may be slightly less, the R0 hasn't dropped by that amount.

Herd immunity is really the only game in town and going by the link above, it's about 72% for Covid-19.

User1998

I think studies from Isreal and the UK show that 30% vaccinated results in a big drop off in cases etc

Polar101

seamus wrote: »

I still assert that this is why AZ were so keen to stiff the EU on supplies; because they know by the end of 2021 they won't be getting many orders from wealthy countries. So they prioritised delivery to those who were willing to overpay.

I'd have said it's more to do with them not having a clue on how to manufacture large amounts of vaccines, because they've never done it before. So the infrastructure wasn't there. If they wanted to price gouge, they'd have set the vaccine prices higher.

Away With The Fairies

Well I'm just after hearing a true story from a vaccinated person. They are a childminder/cleaner for a doctor and got themselves vaccinated through abuse of HSE healthcare website. Their employer told them to pass themselves off as a healthcare assistant. Which I guess they can be cleaning assistant for a doctor's own home.

Van.Bosch

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Well I'm just after hearing a true story from a vaccinated person. They are a childminder/cleaner for a doctor and got themselves vaccinated through abuse of HSE healthcare website. Their employer told them to pass themselves off as a healthcare assistant. Which I guess they can be cleaning assistant for a doctor's own home.

That’s why we have 250,000 healthcare people in Cohort 2!

SPDUB

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Well I'm just after hearing a true story from a vaccinated person. They are a childminder/cleaner for a doctor and got themselves vaccinated through abuse of HSE healthcare website. Their employer told them to pass themselves off as a healthcare assistant. Which I guess they can be cleaning assistant for a doctor's own home.

What a weird person to know who rubs it in your face that they abused a process to get vaccinated early

covidrelease

Batattackrat wrote: »

That's exactly it, I think the government are giving the worst projections possible when it's coming to restrictions.

I can see us opening up to Level 2 pretty quickly especially with the UK starting to open up.

Start of June I reckon after the bank holiday.

We also have increasing herd immunity through people who have had it.

A normal country would be looking to Level 2 in May.

Here in NPHET land however the best we can hope for is a downgrade from "precarious" to maybe "the next 2 weeks are crucial" and opening click and collect.

Away With The Fairies

SPDUB wrote: »

What a weird person to know who rubs it in your face that they abused a process to get vaccinated early

Should the gp be reported as well?

FionnK86

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

57 cases in Northern Ireland today. I think it’s about time things are reopened.

I'll be delighter for them when they reach 0. They've had a rough few months, especially at the start and now with tempers rearing up before the marching season they really do deserve a break.

Bubbaclaus

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Should the gp be reported as well?

GPs aren't vaccinating Group 2.

paulie21

443 cases 9 deaths

Messi19

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Should the gp be reported as well?

I'm surprised you have time to ask such questions with all the reporting you've seemingly been doing

irishguy1983

Batattackrat wrote: »

That's exactly it, I think the government are giving the worst projections possible when it's coming to restrictions.

I can see us opening up to Level 2 pretty quickly especially with the UK starting to open up.

Start of June I reckon after the bank holiday.

Jeez someone is super positive today! I am hoping for level 3 in June at some stage - I am hoping - that’s it! Level 2 in June - damn that is optimistic

ShyMets

Messi19 wrote: »

I'm surprised you have time to ask such questions with all the reporting you've seemingly been doing

Best filed away in the list of things that didn't actually happen

covidrelease

443/9

Vicxas

paulie21 wrote: »

443 cases 9 deaths

Backlog? I thought we only had 3 hundred something positives swabs today.

irishguy1983

Vicxas wrote: »

Backlog? I thought we only had 3 hundred something positives swabs today.

I know it is Bank Holiday and all that jazz but two days in a row under 500 - how bad like

Banana Republic 1

ninebeanrows wrote: »

We have to remember a large proportion of NPHET members would outright ban alcohol at a whim and probably chocolate bars too.

Many of them are extreme conservatives who will not move until there isn't a case recorded in this country.

What a load of balderdash.

Always_Running

Vicxas wrote: »

Backlog? I thought we only had 3 hundred something positives swabs today.

Cases last 7 days 3494

Positive swabs count last 7 days 3584

Lucas Hood

irishguy1983 wrote: »

I know it is Bank Holiday and all that jazz but two days in a row under 500 - how bad like

3 days isnt it?

Of the 9 deaths related to Covid-19 reported tonight, 3 occurred in January, 2 in February, 3 in March and 1 in April.

We're on the final stretch, this thing is nearly over

covidrelease

Are we getting regional numbers?

Stheno

covidrelease wrote: »

Are we getting regional numbers?

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1379469380984143873?s=19

giveitholly

covidrelease wrote: »

Are we getting regional numbers?

https://twitter.com/ZaraKing/status/1379472164345290767?s=19

aziz

Deleted User wrote: »

Of the 9 deaths related to Covid-19 reported tonight, 3 occurred in January, 2 in February, 3 in March and 1 in April.

We're on the final stretch, this thing is nearly over

Ah no,not another one,you’re jinxing it😁