Covid 19 Part XXXIV-249,437 ROI(4,906 deaths) 120,195 NI (2,145 deaths)(01/05)Read OP

Time to open up. Criminal having large parts of the economy closed at this stage.

Faugheen

People reading into that data in the Irish Times need to remember that it's 0.1% of cases that can be identified as the source of the transmission.

Up until last week, there was no retroactive contact tracing. Contact tracing was used to find out who you might have spread the disease to, not where you got it. Conveniently the journalist here (Ronan McGreevey) left that bit out. It's the exact same reason why transmission in pubs, restaurants etc is so low. Even the lobby groups for them have accepted that the data means sweet **** all because CT only looked at who you were in contact with 48 hours previously and considering the damage their lobbying caused back in January.

Ronan McGreevey has a tendency to print pieces that are misleading in a bid to whip people up into a frenzy. He printed a piece a few weeks ago where he quoted an Electric Picnic organiser as saying that they're working on the assumption that it's going ahead this year. EP had to release a statement saying that person didn't work for EP and didn't speak on their behalf. However it was too late, people were already saying it should go ahead. He's grossly irresponsible and he's doing the exact same thing here.

So while outdoor transmission is most likely lower than indoors, there is simply no way to say that it is definitely that low, because contact tracing never aimed to find out the source. Another NPHET recommendation that was ignored by the government back in August, funnily enough, yet some people here would have you believe that NPHET call all the shots and have this great power.

Rosita

Interesting to see 32 cases reported in Cork, 8 more than in Kildare. About a week ago people here were saying Cork should be opening up, while they wondered what was going on in Kildare. Shows how volatile it all is.

igCorcaigh

The end is in sight for the great Coronavirus pandemic of 2020/21.

What would be criminal would be allowing the virus to spread in these last couple of months, just before our most vulnerable citizens have been vaccinated.

Banana Republic 1

seamus wrote: »

I wouldn't expect it to hit case numbers. 1 in 6 is a statistically tiny amount for a highly transmissible disease, it won't affect R numbers at all.

However, when that 1 in 6 is heavily weighted towards vulnerable groups and those who spread it to vulnerable groups (such as frontline staff), I would expect to see hospital & ICU numbers continue falling with little connection to the case numbers.

In Brazil the reason the icu numbers are very high is that younger people take longer to die.

Banana Republic 1

igCorcaigh wrote: »

The end is in sight for the great Coronavirus pandemic of 2020/21.

What would be criminal would be allowing the virus to spread in these last couple of months, just before our most vulnerable citizens have been vaccinated.

It’s in sight for western countries.

Responder XY

Faugheen wrote: »

People reading into that data in the Irish Times need to remember that it's 0.1% of cases that can be identified as the source of the transmission.

Up until last week, there was no retroactive contact tracing. Contact tracing was used to find out who you might have spread the disease to, not where you got it. Conveniently the journalist here (Ronan McGreevey) left that bit out. It's the exact same reason why transmission in pubs, restaurants etc is so low. Even the lobby groups for them have accepted that the data means sweet **** all because CT only looked at who you were in contact with 48 hours previously and considering the damage their lobbying caused back in January.

Ronan McGreevey has a tendency to print pieces that are misleading in a bid to whip people up into a frenzy. He printed a piece a few weeks ago where he quoted an Electric Picnic organiser as saying that they're working on the assumption that it's going ahead this year. EP had to release a statement saying that person didn't work for EP and didn't speak on their behalf. However it was too late, people were already saying it should go ahead. He's grossly irresponsible and he's doing the exact same thing here.

So while outdoor transmission is most likely lower than indoors, there is simply no way to say that it is definitely that low, because contact tracing never aimed to find out the source. Another NPHET recommendation that was ignored by the government back in August, funnily enough, yet some people here would have you believe that NPHET call all the shots and have this great power.

That same article said that only 20% of cases are untraced? found that difficult to reconcile with everything else that has been reported, but assuming it's accurate we know the source of 80% of cases and 79.9% of the time - it spreads indoor.

Very convincing. 

Str8outtaWuhan

igCorcaigh wrote: »

The end is in sight for the great Coronavirus pandemic of 2020/21.

What would be criminal would be allowing the virus to spread in these last couple of months, just before our most vulnerable citizens have been vaccinated.

There will always be "more ", at some point people have to realise that some people will die from this just like they die from any other illness.

Banana Republic 1

Rosita wrote: »

Interesting to see 32 cases reported in Cork, 8 more than in Kildare. About a week ago people here were saying Cork should be opening up, while they wondered what was going on in Kildare. Shows how volatile it all is.

Still the captain doctor science crew will keep on moaning regardless.

#prove it

covidrelease

igCorcaigh wrote: »

The end is in sight for the great Coronavirus pandemic of 2020/21.

What would be criminal would be allowing the virus to spread in these last couple of months, just before our most vulnerable citizens have been vaccinated.

Our vulnerable have the option to wait at home until they get vaccinated. Wont be long now anyway.

No point trying to hold everybody else back.

irishguy1983

Rosita wrote: »

Interesting to see 32 cases reported in Cork, 8 more than in Kildare. About a week ago people here were saying Cork should be opening up, while they wondered what was going on in Kildare. Shows how volatile it all is.

Ahhhh come on now - half a million in Cork - not really comparable....

Banana Republic 1

Str8outtaWuhan wrote: »

There will always be "more ", at some point people have to realise that some people will die from this just like they die from any other illness.

You first.

igCorcaigh

Banana Republic 1 wrote: »

It’s in sight for western countries.

Good point.

aziz

aziz wrote: »

Ah no,not another one,you’re jinxing itðŸ˜

Haha, last time I promise, I'm excited
Looking forward to doing about a 100 different things that have had to be put on hold

iamwhoiam

covidrelease wrote: »

Our vulnerable have the option to wait at home until they get vaccinated. Wont be long now anyway.

No point trying to hold everybody else back.

Not all vulnerable have that option . Many need to work .

Faugheen

Responder XY wrote: »

That same article said that only 20% of cases are untraced? found that difficult to reconcile with everything else that has been reported, but assuming it's accurate we know the source of 80% of cases and 79.9% of the time - it spreads indoor.

Very convincing. 

It was using data from the HPSC that everyone can use.

The article found that 20 percent of transmissions couldn't be identified. It does not say that 80 percent of transmissions were identified at source.

Like I said, it is simply impossible to say where the source of infections for a lot of infections was, because contact tracing didn't go back to find it at source.

For example, if you started getting symptoms and got tested, returned a positive test, and you gave 9 close contacts in the preceeding 48 hours to the contract tracing team. If all 9 subsequently tested positive, then it would noted that the source of transmission was identified for all of them ie you. However, if you met with all 9 outside of that 48 hour window, then contact tracing wouldn't ask you about them. If they all developed symptoms, got tested and came back positive, then there would no likely source of transmission.

There is also the caveat that you might not have even been the source and that one of your 9 contacts was, but they just didn't show symptoms until later.

I'm not trying to say that outdoor transmission is just as risky as indoors. I think we can all see that it's not. However that Irish Times data is misleading and you can't read too much into it at all.

Faugheen

covidrelease wrote: »

Our vulnerable have the option to wait at home until they get vaccinated. Wont be long now anyway.

No point trying to hold everybody else back.

Not all of them do, actually.

'Vulnerable' people aren't just over 70s, you know. They're teachers, healthcare workers, people providing essential services.

Think people need to take their blinkers off and really think before they make sweeping statements like this.

funnydoggy

Deleted User wrote: »

Haha, last time I promise, I'm excited
Looking forward to doing about a 100 different things that have had to be put on hold

I just want to go back to work to be honest. That and the cinema

iamwhoiam

I did laugh at the News . The HSE and NPHET have told us time and time to listen to the science
Now the science tells us that outdoor transmission is 0.1% of cases
But now Colm Henry tells us not to listen to science as it’s misleading !!

Faugheen

iamwhoiam wrote: »

I did laugh at the News . The HSE and NPHET have told us time and time to listen to the science
Now the science tells us that outdoor transmission is 0.1% of cases
But now Colm Henry tells us not to listen to science as it’s misleading !!

That data is misleading, just like it was misleading in the amount of cases and clusters in pubs and restaurants.

It is genuinely impossible to say where trasmission truly occured because contact tracing never sought to find that out.

Banana Republic 1

iamwhoiam wrote: »

I did laugh at the News . The HSE and NPHET have told us time and time to listen to the science
Now the science tells us that outdoor transmission is 0.1% of cases
But now Colm Henry tells us not to listen to science as it’s misleading !!

Ask yourself how they tabulate these figures when the contact tracing system was and worthless, they had no clue until recently the amount of asymptotic cases there are and the fact that no outdoor activities are currently allowed.

Responder XY

Faugheen wrote: »

The article found that 20 percent of transmissions couldn't be identified. It does not say that 80 percent of transmissions were identified at source.

If 20% of transmissions can't be identified - how does it not follow that 80% can be identified?

Notwithstanding that, I agree that there has to be limitations to this study - but it is so overwhelming, it's very difficult not to see how there is any justification for retaining restrictions on outdoor activities any further, it has to be very very wrong to change the conclusion.

Of course controls are needed to ensure that they don't move indoors, but it's simply not good enough any more to not allow some type of living to go on. People will do it anyway, much better if it's controlled.

jackboy

Faugheen wrote: »

That data is misleading, just like it was misleading in the amount of cases and clusters in pubs and restaurants.

It is genuinely impossible to say where trasmission truly occured because contact tracing never sought to find that out.

It has been clear now for a very long time that outdoor transmission is not a significant risk. Even if the 0.1% is 0.5% that is still a tiny risk and worth strongly encouraging outdoor activities in other to minimise indoor gatherings.

The scientists still against outdoor activities remind me of those who said masks didn’t work this time last year.

appledrop

iamwhoiam wrote: »

I did laugh at the News . The HSE and NPHET have told us time and time to listen to the science
Now the science tells us that outdoor transmission is 0.1% of cases
But now Colm Henry tells us not to listen to science as it’s misleading !!

Yep but remember now when it comes to the schools the data is a 100% correct.

We have Colm Henry saying that can't just go by confirmed 'outbreaks' when looking at outdoor transmission.

Sure we have been saying this for months in education sector that not just about the so called confirmed 'outbreaks' but no always shot down and told schools are safe.

Even though we know in nearly every case they try and blame it on community transmission in schools.

An absolute load of waffle at this stage.

User1998

igCorcaigh wrote: »

The end is in sight for the great Coronavirus pandemic of 2020/21.

What would be criminal would be allowing the virus to spread in these last couple of months, just before our most vulnerable citizens have been vaccinated.

What would be criminal would be refining residents to 5km of their home for almost three quarters of a year because of a virus with a survival rate of 99.99% for the majority of the population

marno21

Colm Henry is right. 0.1% of confirmed cases linked to outdoor transmission is misleading, because it doesn't account for cases marked as "community transmission", which could be indoor or outdoor for all we know. Contact tracing outdoor transmission would be very difficult, if not impossible in a system like ours which doesn't effectively trace genuine community transmission.

It doesn't take from the fact that outdoor activities are much safer than indoor ones, and people should be encouraged to do stuff outdoors anyway. It would be much more useful to encourage people to meet outdoors instead of Gardai clearing groups meeting outdoors and effectively encouraging them to meet indoors (e.g. where they won't be seen).

Sanjuro

funnydoggy wrote: »

I just want to go back to work to be honest. That and the cinema

God, I miss going to the cinema.

funnydoggy

Sanjuro wrote: »

God, I miss going to the cinema.

I've seen some great films in the last year that I know would've been a million times better if they were watched in the cinema.


The smell of popcorn, the trailers beforehand (controversial), the magic of it all.


Ahhhh

is_that_so

marno21 wrote: »

Colm Henry is right. 0.1% of confirmed cases linked to outdoor transmission is misleading, because it doesn't account for cases marked as "community transmission", which could be indoor or outdoor for all we know. Contact tracing outdoor transmission would be very difficult, if not impossible in a system like ours which doesn't effectively trace genuine community transmission.

It doesn't take from the fact that outdoor activities are much safer than indoor ones, and people should be encouraged to do stuff outdoors anyway. It would be much more useful to encourage people to meet outdoors instead of Gardai clearing groups meeting outdoors and effectively encouraging them to meet indoors (e.g. where they won't be seen).

The rationale for NHPET is any group is a risk and of course the much feared B.1.117 but once upon a time outdoors was still fine.

Faugheen

Responder XY wrote: »

If 20% of transmissions can't be identified - how does it not follow that 80% can be identified?

Notwithstanding that, I agree that there has to be limitations to this study - but it is so overwhelming, it's very difficult not to see how there is any justification for retaining restrictions on outdoor activities any further, it has to be very very wrong to change the conclusion.

Of course controls are needed to ensure that they don't move indoors, but it's simply not good enough any more to not allow some type of living to go on. People will do it anyway, much better if it's controlled.

I agree with a lot of what you're saying, but it was also 'overwhelming' that very few clusters were traced back to pubs and restaurants (I know, indoor, but it's a similar comparison) and even the lobby groups finally got that message after what happened at Christmas. The scientists said it was likely that pubs and restaurants were a problem but the data didn't back it up because it didn't come under contact tracing. People slammed them for that and said 'look at the science' then too, and they turned out to be right.

Again, I'll stress, it's highly, highly likely that transmission outdoors is low, but we have to be careful with data like this and not wave it around as if it's a pinpoint fact. Our absolutely shambolic contact tracing system means we truly don't know for sure.

As someone who plays sport on a social level and hasn't played in a year and a half (injuries + pandemic shutdown), I'm mad to get back out and play again. I'm desperate to get back out and play again. I know I sometimes come across as someone who wants to stay locked down forever but I really don't. I'm just trying to point out that the government's response since the start of the pandemic is looking more and more shambolic as the weeks roll on and frustrations grow.