Covid 19 Part XXXIV-249,437 ROI(4,906 deaths) 120,195 NI (2,145 deaths)(01/05)Read OP

PMBC

Gael23 wrote: »

40 discharges from hospital yesterday after 30 admissions over Easter weekend

Can anyone point me to a Boards.ie or other site where the no of deaths, hospitalised, ICU cases and positives are tabulated on a daily basis and also as rolling averages for 5, 7 or 14 days from the start last year or from 1st Jan 21.
Thanks

castletownman

After the revelation that Vitamin D may be a cure to covid earlier, I hear they are recommending flat 7-up next.

Unsettled tummy? Drop of brandy before bed will crown you too.

ShyMets

castletownman wrote: »

After the revelation that Vitamin D may be a cure to covid earlier, I hear they are recommending flat 7-up next.

Unsettled tummy? Drop of brandy before bed will crown you too.

I've been regularly dosing myself with beer since the start of the pandemic and I've stayed Covid free:)

Vicxas

seamus wrote: »

232 in hospital this morning and likely to keep dropping all week.

This is the lowest since 20th December.

For reference, we've never had less than 200 in hospital for any sustained period since early October.

If we break 200 and manage to dip below it, then we are well on top of this regardless of what the daily numbers or positivity rate is.

ICU is still taking it time, but it'll get there.

ICU will always take time to drop seeing as they're normally on ventilators and in need of a lot more time to be released.

Delighted with these numbers.

covidrelease

seamus wrote: »

232 in hospital this morning and likely to keep dropping all week.

This is the lowest since 20th December.

For reference, we've never had less than 200 in hospital for any sustained period since early October.

If we break 200 and manage to dip below it, then we are well on top of this regardless of what the daily numbers or positivity rate is.

ICU is still taking it time, but it'll get there.

So much for the situation being "precarious" according to NPHET.

covidrelease

Reported July 16th : THE NEXT THREE weeks in Ireland look “very precarious” as the R-number – reproductive rate – of Covid-19 increases, NPHET warned this evening.

Reported Nov 20th : The National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) has warned the Government that Ireland is in a “precarious position” and a looming third wave of Covid-19 could be more deadly than the last one.

Reported March 11th 2021 : Prof Nolan said that there are some concerning trends in the data and "as the incidence remains high, our situation is precarious".

Reported March 31st 2021 : Professor Philip Nolan, Chair of the NPHET Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group, said; “The situation is stable but precarious. The Reproduction number is currently estimated at 1.0 – 1.3. If the epidemic is growing again now, the doubling time is estimated at 35 days or longer.

covidrelease

covidrelease wrote: »

So much for the situation being "precarious" according to NPHET.

It'll always be precarious as long as NPHET has the word "variants" in their arsenal.

I am at this stage sick to death of seeing Ronan Glynn and Philip Nolan's doom-laden faces, governing policy for the rest of us when clearly things are on the right path - and quickly, too, with almost 1,000,000 vaccinations administered and this figure set to rocket in the coming 8-12 week period.

seamus

covidrelease wrote: »

So much for the situation being "precarious" according to NPHET.

That was nine days ago. It was precarious then.

NPHET can only comment on the data that's in front of them, they don't have a crystal ball. The numbers dropping subsequently doesn't mean their interpretation was wrong.

There is an influencer effect, and we've seen it happen 3 or 4 times now. Numbers start levelling off, NPHET start ringing the bell to warn that things might get ropey. And people change their behaviour. Which avoids the situation that NPHET were warning about.

There are also other factors that can influence numbers, such as unseasonably warm & dry weather.

eagle eye

seamus wrote:

If we break 200 and manage to dip below it, then we are well on top of this regardless of what the daily numbers or positivity rate is.

But we can't reopen anything if the positivity rate doesn't drop or the hospital numbers will likely increase massively again.

plodder

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Is she wrong? The 50 year old working from home may have school children so there is a risk there. That person drops the kids off the school, goes to the supermarket etc etc.

She was wrong. Your own child would have to catch it at school before you could. The other risks are all controllable. Nobody should be going to the supermarket five days a week for 6 hours etc.

covidrelease

Deleted User wrote: »

It'll always be precarious as long as NPHET has the word "variants" in their arsenal.

I am at this stage sick to death of seeing Ronan Glynn and Philip Nolan's doom-laden faces, governing policy for the rest of us when clearly things are on the right path - and quickly, too, with almost 1,000,000 vaccinations administered and this figure set to rocket in the coming 8-12 week period.

Interestingly when there was no mention of new variants the situation last July was "very precarious"

Lately its just "precarious"

These people are spoofers plain and simple.

Of the 4 times they called it "precarious" twice so far there as no spike, the third time was Christmas and we know why that happened, their 4th precarious call was 31st March and its not looking great for their prediction this time either.

stephenjmcd

eagle eye wrote: »

But we can't reopen anything if the positivity rate doesn't drop or the hospital numbers will likely increase massively again.

The positivity rate is dropping....

Turtwig

eagle eye wrote: »

But we can't reopen anything if the positivity rate doesn't drop or the hospital numbers will likely increase massively again.

The positivity rate is rather good. Yes, it would ideally be lower but there's little to indicate there's uncontrolled spread at the moment. While the situation is very finely balanced it is at this moment one that is contained.

covidrelease

eagle eye wrote: »

But we can't reopen anything if the positivity rate doesn't drop or the hospital numbers will likely increase massively again.

Of course we can. For example, construction, Click and collect, outdoor drinking and dining, outdoor sports, loads of stuff.

covidrelease

seamus wrote: »

That was nine days ago. It was precarious then.

NPHET can only comment on the data that's in front of them, they don't have a crystal ball. The numbers dropping subsequently doesn't mean their interpretation was wrong.

There is an influencer effect, and we've seen it happen 3 or 4 times now. Numbers start levelling off, NPHET start ringing the bell to warn that things might get ropey. And people change their behaviour. Which avoids the situation that NPHET were warning about.

There are also other factors that can influence numbers, such as unseasonably warm & dry weather.

Numbers don't drop just because NPHET call "precarious" every now and again.

ShyMets

ShyMets wrote: »

I've been regularly dosing myself with beer since the start of the pandemic and I've stayed Covid free:)

Yes. I have found red wine to be effective in preventing Covid. I said to someone recently that it's miraculous I escaped so far but then I remembered the wine

caveat emptor

seamus wrote: »

232 in hospital this morning and likely to keep dropping all week.

This is the lowest since 20th December.

For reference, we've never had less than 200 in hospital for any sustained period since early October.

If we break 200 and manage to dip below it, then we are well on top of this regardless of what the daily numbers or positivity rate is.

ICU is still taking it time, but it'll get there.

That really is great news about the fall in hospitalisations.

I note that the hospitality was open on the 20th of December.
I think most people think we should reopen now.

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1379726586447024129?s=20

covidrelease

On the 16th July 2020 there was 21, yes TWENTY ONE cases, and NPHET called "very precarious"

timmyntc

covidrelease wrote: »

Numbers don't drop just because NPHET call "precarious" every now and again.

Remember - all good things are due to NPHET, all bad things are because of the smelly public

spakman

eagle eye wrote: »

But we can't reopen anything if the positivity rate doesn't drop or the hospital numbers will likely increase massively again.

A higher positivity rate would lead to a small fraction of previously seen hospitalisation rate, due to the vaccinations of those most likely to be hospitalised!

Multipass

Irish Times headline today that ‘Ireland is on a knife edge as case numbers could go either way’
The old worry meter needed a kickstart :pac:

Another headline claiming that having covid increases mental health problems....

seamus

covidrelease wrote: »

On the 16th July 2020 there was 21, yes TWENTY ONE cases, and NPHET called "very precarious"

And they were right.

On that date, we had seen the daily average cases double in the previous two weeks.

The number 21 is small, but when you get into exponential growth, 21 cases becomes 300 cases in just 8 weeks.

I had seen someone else call this out in July too and I dismissed it as "statistical noise". But they were right. 12 weeks later we had 1,000 cases/day.

NPHET's modelling data spotted this in July and it was ignored.

timmyntc

eagle eye wrote: »

Look, I'd say over 90% of people in this thread would agree that you are carefree and pretty clueless about things.
The way you go on we should have pubs open, everything open.
So I'm just going to ignore you from now on.

Look, I'd say over 90% of people in this thread would agree that you are scaremongering and pretty clueless about things.
The way you go on we should have schools closed, everything closed.
So I'm just going to ignore you from now on.

funnydoggy

Multipass wrote: »

Irish Times headline today that ‘Ireland is on a knife edge as case numbers could go either way’
The old worry meter needed a kickstart :pac:

Another headline claiming that having covid increases mental health problems....

Some of these media / news outlets are panicking at the thought of our situation getting better, because that means they're screwed. They were already on the way out before COVID, they're riding on COVID's coattails now.



Be glad to see the back of them tbh

eagle eye

spakman wrote:

A higher positivity rate would lead to a small fraction of previously seen hospitalisation rate, due to the vaccinations of those most likely to be hospitalised!

Have you figured by age for those hospitalised just after Christmas?
I don't have those figures but I'm aware of three people who ended up in ICU, one in his forties, two in their fifties and only one with underlying conditions.

covidrelease

seamus wrote: »

And they were right.

On that date, we had seen the daily average cases double in the previous two weeks.

The number 21 is small, but when you get into exponential growth, 21 cases becomes 300 cases in just 8 weeks.

I had seen someone else call this out in July too and I dismissed it as "statistical noise". But they were right. 12 weeks later we had 1,000 cases/day.

NPHET's modelling data spotted this in July and it was ignored.

If 21 cases a day is the definition of "very precarious" how would you describe the current 500 a day situation?

covidrelease

seamus wrote: »

That was nine days ago. It was precarious then.

So how would you describe the situation today, given that you consider 21 cases a day to be "very precarious"

:rolleyes:

covidrelease

covidrelease wrote: »

If 21 cases a day is the definition of "very precarious" how would you describe the current 500 a day situation?

And moreover, Ireland was pretty shut in July compared to the rest of Europe which enjoyed a pretty much a la carte summer where people could go and do as they pleased.

It cannot have been a situation where 21 cases in July in Ireland is precarious, but that the rest of Europe - which could not have mingled more - is non-precarious but enjoys all freedoms.

Seasonality was ignored by NPHET - on a gigantic scale.

irishguy1983

seamus wrote: »

232 in hospital this morning and likely to keep dropping all week.

This is the lowest since 20th December.

For reference, we've never had less than 200 in hospital for any sustained period since early October.

If we break 200 and manage to dip below it, then we are well on top of this regardless of what the daily numbers or positivity rate is.

ICU is still taking it time, but it'll get there.

Hopefully you are right and we get below 200.....HOWEVER I feel govt are still not going to respond to data/figures ie they have it in their mind regarding set dates and that's it.....Like they could bring forward the 26th of April for outdoor stuff but won't happen....I'd imagine they have dates for May also and they won't budge regarding these dates....Of course I am speculating...

eagle eye

timmyntc wrote:

Look, I'd say over 90% of people in this thread would agree that you are scaremongering and pretty clueless about things. The way you go on we should have schools closed, everything closed. So I'm just going to ignore you from now on.

What scaremongering have I done?