Covid 19 Part XXXIV-249,437 ROI(4,906 deaths) 120,195 NI (2,145 deaths)(01/05)Read OP

Golfman64

lee_baby_simms wrote: »

He basically said that the damage that’s been done to livelihoods is due to the virus and not due to NPHET.

That’s interesting - I guess it was the Irish version of the virus that closed construction here and put thousands out of work, closed golf and tennis courts and clubs that remained open in many other countries, decimated business and tourism by enacting overly draconian travel rules....have I missed anything?

All the ‘Irish’ version of the virus but not the madness of NPHET right?

Faugheen

Golfman64 wrote: »

That’s interesting - I guess it was the Irish version of the virus that closed construction here and put thousands out of work, closed golf and tennis courts and clubs that remained open in many other countries, decimated business and tourism by enacting overly draconian travel rules....have I missed anything?

All the ‘Irish’ version of the virus but not the madness of NPHET right?

What about the government who actually make the decisions?

What about the government who made the decision to ignore NPHET advice for nearly a year?

The lengths people will go to deflect from the fact the government make the decisions.

caveat emptor

niallo27 wrote: »

How about something in the middle, even you can't still agree these over cautious restrictions are correct.

Nialllo after a year of this it's pretty clear we don't agree. In a years time we still won't agree. It takes a lot of time and effort to get data, process it and post here. You are free to post what you like.

Let's agree to disagree. All the best.

What do you think the numbers will be like in two weeks time? I'd say they'll be back increasing albeit slowly at first. Until we are all vaccinated it's not over.

NPHET cannot be blamed for public policy. They are an advisory body.

Public policy is the job of government - ideally implemented by an effective, forward-thinking government with leadership aptitude.

But it's very difficult to govern when you cannot assemble a collective spine between all ministers in the current government.

And it's even more difficult to conduct that very necessary spinal rearrangement when you have meager-weak Michael Martin in charge. He comes across as more of a junior minister than anything approximating what we conceive of as Taoiseach.

Professor Moriarty

Deleted User wrote: »

NPHET cannot be blamed for public policy. They are an advisory body.

Public policy is the job of government - ideally implemented by an effective, forward-thinking government with leadership aptitude.

But it's very difficult to govern when you cannot assemble a collective spine between all ministers in the current government.

And it's even more difficult to conduct that very necessary spinal rearrangement when you have meager-weak Michael Martin in charge. He comes across as more of a junior minister than anything approximating what we conceive of as Taoiseach.

As a matter of interest, could you outline which parties/politicians in Ireland would have done a better job with the Covid-19 pandemic and why?

Messi19

caveat emptor wrote: »

Yeah and we had quite a few deaths even with this massive amount of unemployment.

Imagine how many people would have died had we carried on as normal.

Based on the below chart if we had no restrictions like Brazil, on a per capita basis we would have had ~8500 deaths as opposed to the 4732 deaths.

Probably more given that hospitals were already at capacity.

It's a real moral dilemma but without level 5 it would have been carnage.

How many times do you need to be told that WE ARE NOT BRAZIL

Professor Moriarty

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

As a matter of interest, could you outline which parties/politicians in Ireland would have done a better job with the Covid-19 pandemic and why?

No.

First, that's highly speculative.

Second, it's not a competition. What matters is leadership - and that is lacking in the current government irrespective of how other parties would have performed in some parallel universe scenario.

What I can conclude from the current scenario is that Michael Martin is not a leader, has no leadership qualities - and would presumably suffer an autoimmune reaction if he were ever to develop said qualities.

Professor Moriarty

Deleted User wrote: »

No.

First, that's highly speculative.

Second, it's not a competition. What matters is leadership - and that is lacking in the current government irrespective of how other parties would have performed in some parallel universe scenario.

So no opinion other than the government is spineless. Okay. Just to note, on average, Ireland has a mortality rate 40% lower than our nearest neighbours: UK, Portugal, Spain, France, Netherlands and Belgium.

Russman

Deleted User wrote: »

No.

First, that's highly speculative.

Second, it's not a competition. What matters is leadership - and that is lacking in the current government irrespective of how other parties would have performed in some parallel universe scenario.

What I can conclude from the current scenario is that Michael Martin is not a leader, has no leadership qualities - and would presumably suffer an autoimmune reaction if he were ever to develop said qualities.

I totally agree that MM isn’t great at all, very poor communicator, but some people will think leadership means disagreeing with and going against NPHET advice, while others might think it means agreeing with them and making very unpopular decisions.

Banana Republic 1

[Deleted User] wrote: »

NPHET cannot be blamed for public policy. They are an advisory body.

Public policy is the job of government - ideally implemented by an effective, forward-thinking government with leadership aptitude.

But it's very difficult to govern when you cannot assemble a collective spine between all ministers in the current government.

And it's even more difficult to conduct that very necessary spinal rearrangement when you have meager-weak Michael Martin in charge. He comes across as more of a junior minister than anything approximating what we conceive of as Taoiseach.

He seems weaker only because the leak has constantly briefed against him on top of his normal publicity hound MO.

lukas8888

lukas8888 wrote: »

Explain.

Well cases only fell 10% during the four weeks schools were reopened, so quite obviously the return resulted in the spring surg.....oh

Messi19

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Well cases only fell 10% during the four weeks schools were reopened, so quite obviously the return resulted in the spring surg.....oh

What did they fall by in the weeks before?

caveat emptor

caveat emptor wrote: »

Sorry to hear of your situation. Hopefully those affected recover quickly.

You can clearly see the rise and fall pre and post Easter in the relevant age groups (kids and parents of school going kids).

Of course we are told it's unrelated but it doesn't stand to reason IMO.


This is most pronounced in 1-4 and 5-14.

Massive surge from 10 cases per 100k to 14. When all kids in that age group returned to relative normality

caveat emptor

Deleted User wrote: »

Massive surge from 10 cases per 100k to 14. When all kids in that age group returned to relative normality

Do you remember when you minimised the exponential growth in October? I do.

Do you remember when you minimised the exponential growth in December? I do.

They led to restrictions, jobs and lives.

By all means don't change now.

We didn't agree then , we don't agree now. Let's agree to disagree like adults.

caveat emptor

caveat emptor wrote: »

Do you remember when you minimised the exponential growth in October? I do.

Do you remember when you minimised the exponential growth in December? I do.

They led to restrictions, jobs and lives.

By all means don't change now.

We didn't agree then , we don't agree now. Let's agree to disagree like adults.

Child

robbiezero

Faugheen wrote: »

NPHET don't test but they made that recommendation in August, when the HSE should have its testing regimes in place. But no, it was typical nonsense from the HSE following the general 'be grand' line instead of actually being ambitious in in expanding its test and trace capacity.

Look what happened because there was no MHQ as recommended last May. B117 is now rampant.

People make fun of NPHET about being too cautious but nearly everything they predicted would happen has happened, and that is down to gross negligience from the government.

Like what?
They didn't predict the Christmas surge.
They kept us locked down way too long last summer.
Putting us into Level 5 in November was a big mistake.
They didn't predict 4 months of Level 5 lockdown that we are still in and only for vaccinations, I'm not sure we could get out of it at all.
They have made absolutely no allowances or recommendations for outdoor activities in spite of them being almost no risk.
They have been bleating about being in a "precarious situation" for the last 6 weeks when we really should have been even slowly opening up some of the outdoor and travel restrictions.
I'm really not seeing what they have brought to the party at all, and yes I fully accept that the Government have been worse than useless all through it.

caveat emptor

Deleted User wrote: »

Child

Call me a child but those are children actually. Going from 10/100K to 16/100K on the chart doesn't seem like much but for the 0-4 cohort that's 330K people.

So that's a jump from 33 testing positive per day to 53 testing positive PER DAY!

The more that get infected the more chance of those rare conditions occurring.

An increase of 60% is not nothing.

Messi19

Messi19 wrote: »

What did they fall by in the weeks before?

We got in to a position where schools could open relatively safely. And that’s what happened ,things remained stable.

Spread can happen anywhere people interact. Some are just more important than others. No one has ever claimed no spread ever occurs in school. Otherwise why did they close after Christmas. Some seem to put that argument that no spread occurs in school into the mouths of those with the view that the relative risk at times when cases are low or the epidemiological situation is improving can allow the resumption of some of the most important activities.
If the sole objective was to stop spread we would have shut down the single biggest contributor to the spread of cases - hospitals.

TheDoctor

Hospital numbers at 8pm

Total 209 (down from 220 last night)
ICU 53 (down from 54 last night - no deaths)

New lowest 8pm total number for 2021.

Last Thursday
Total 255
ICU 61

caveat emptor

Messi19 wrote: »

How many times do you need to be told that WE ARE NOT BRAZIL

That's a comparison with a country with no restrictions. You may have missed the original point.

We could have gone for full employment but could easily have doubled the death count.

Moral dilemma I know.

caveat emptor

caveat emptor wrote: »

Call me a child but those are children actually. Going from 10 to 16 on the chart doesn't seem like much but for the 0-4 cohort that's 330K people.

So that's a jump from 33 testing positive per day to 53 testing positive PER DAY!

The more that get infected the more chance of those rare conditions occurring.

An increase of 60% is not nothing.

Yet overall numbers fell 10% in the same time period and hospitalisation by 40%. Out of control.

Scuid Mhór

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Case Numbers

Over 85s was 2,604 on the 21st of Jan and is just 78 today - a 97% reduction in case levels in the age cohort with nearly half of deaths.

75-84 has a 94.2% reduction and 65-74 has 91.5%.

This is incredible.

caveat emptor

Deleted User wrote: »

Yet overall numbers fell 10% in the same time period and hospitalisation by 40%. Out of control.

Minimise as you always do. Where have I said out of control?

The context of these numbers is a massive push to open up.

400 cases a day is not something that can be controlled easily when the safety valve is released?

How many waves would need to see this. If we don't approach herd immunity threshold then it will increase ........exponentially.

Opening up hospitality in December before Christmas was one of the Dumbest things that has ever been done in this country.

I think a lot more can and should be done outdoors.

DebDynamite

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40261202.html

First hairdressers, now concerts. Talk of this vaccine bonus is really starting to annoy me. We locked down the whole country for nearly a year to protect the vulnerable, and now the vulnerable will be able to live a relatively normal life while the non-vulnerable continue to stay locked down. So much for we’re all in this together!

Whatever about bringing the vaccine passport/bonus in when every adult has been given the option of a vaccine, it’s grossly unfair to bring it in when only the vulnerable, healthcare workers or well connected people have had access to the vaccine.

caveat emptor

caveat emptor wrote: »

Minimise as you always do. Where have I said out of control?

The context of these numbers is a massive push to open up.

400 cases a day is not something that can be controlled easily when the safety valve is released?

How many waves would need to see this. If we don't approach herd immunity threshold then it will increase ........exponentially.

Opening up hospitality in December before Christmas was one of the Dumbest things that has ever been done in this country.

Like the exponential growth that stopped 3 days after the post you kindly resurrected from October before level 5?


The fact is though that cases in over 55s fell by 40% between when schools returned and the Easter holidays. Because, in general, community spread was being kept relatively under control. Those most at risk were faced with an improving situation, which has continued to improve.

If only under 55’s contacted the virus, there would be challenges, but no public health emergency.

Messi19

[Deleted User] wrote: »

We got in to a position where schools could open relatively safely. And that’s what happened ,things remained stable.

Spread can happen anywhere people interact. Some are just more important than others. No one has ever claimed no spread ever occurs in school. Otherwise why did they close after Christmas. Some seem to put that argument that no spread occurs in school into the mouths of those with the view that the relative risk at times when cases are low or the epidemiological situation is improving can allow the resumption of some of the most important activities.
If the sole objective was to stop spread we would have shut down the single biggest contributor to the spread of cases - hospitals.

That still doesn't answer what I asked. Was the week by week decrease in the weeks before schools opened greater than the 10% that you mentioned. You're a good man for the school data but did the numbers stagnate in the weeks after opening?

We all know that schools increase the spread. It was nice to hear NPHET acknowledge it.

KrustyUCC

TheDoctor wrote: »

Hospital numbers at 8pm

Total 209 (down from 220 last night)
ICU 53 (down from 54 last night - no deaths)

New lowest 8pm total number for 2021.

Last Thursday
Total 255
ICU 61

Brilliant

Hope we'll be under 200 soon

Charles Babbage

covidrelease wrote: »

On the 16th July 2020 there was 21, yes TWENTY ONE cases, and NPHET called "very precarious"

The point was that R increased above 1 and numbers increased all the way from July until the lockdown in October. The number of cases was low and so any increase was low in absolute numbers but an increasing rate was not acceptable and they were right to call it out.

Messi19

Messi19 wrote: »

That still doesn't answer what I asked. Was the week by week decrease in the weeks before schools opened greater than the 10% that you mentioned. You're a good man for the school data but did the numbers stagnate in the weeks after opening?

We all know that schools increase the spread. It was nice to hear NPHET acknowledge it.

There are continual attempts to get people to “admit” something that was never argued in a bizarre attempt to claim a “victory” when in fact something different is being discussed.

Faugheen

Charles Babbage wrote: »

The point was that R increased above 1 and numbers increased all the way from July until the lockdown in October. The number of cases was low and so any increase was low in absolute numbers but an increasing rate was not acceptable and they were right to call it out.

You’re wasting your time. Too many people here just don’t get it.

The same point will be rehashed in about 2 days and 20+ pages later. The same response will follow. Rinse abs repeat.