Covid 19 Part XXXIV-249,437 ROI(4,906 deaths) 120,195 NI (2,145 deaths)(01/05)Read OP

DebDynamite

DebDynamite wrote: »

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40261202.html

First hairdressers, now concerts. Talk of this vaccine bonus is really starting to annoy me. We locked down the whole country for nearly a year to protect the vulnerable, and now the vulnerable will be able to live a relatively normal life while the non-vulnerable continue to stay locked down. So much for we’re all in this together!

Whatever about bringing the vaccine passport/bonus in when every adult has been given the option of a vaccine, it’s grossly unfair to bring it in when only the vulnerable, healthcare workers or well connected people have had access to the vaccine.

We were never all in this together

caveat emptor

Charles Babbage wrote: »

The point was that R increased above 1 and numbers increased all the way from July until the lockdown in October. The number of cases was low and so any increase was low in absolute numbers but an increasing rate was not acceptable and they were right to call it out.

Yeah that was the prevailing sentiment. The summer was good and this summer should be ok. The daily fluctuations didn't help either. Made it harder to spot.

caveat emptor

caveat emptor wrote: »

Yeah that was the prevailing sentiment. The summer was good and this summer should be ok. The daily fluctuations didn't help either. Made it harder to spot.

The point that was being made was that at that time hospitalisations were low and growth was manageable, as evidenced by level 3 restrictions stopping the growth in October.

December was a different beast, with widespread indoor mixing, not consistent with rules in place at the time, combined with travel home and accelerated with a new variant.


Now that we have 10-15% of the population already infected and nearly 15% with first dose, the breaking effect, the natural suppression of the underlying r0 through immunity will start to slow growth from 30% coverage on. By June the natural r0 will likely be close to or even below 1.

Messi19

[Deleted User] wrote: »

There are continual attempts to get people to “admit” something that was never argued in a bizarre attempt to claim a “victory” when in fact something different is being discussed.

I'm not looking for any admittance or any victory, just an answer to the question. Whenever there's a question about school safety in relation to the case numbers you usually quote the "clear data". All I'm asking is did the reduction slow down when the schools opened and by how much did it slow if so? There's no hidden agenda or attempt to score points

branie2

No cases in Clare today, thankfully

Messi19

Messi19 wrote: »

I'm not looking for any admittance or any victory, just an answer to the question. Whenever there's a question about school safety in relation to the case numbers you usually quote the "clear data". All I'm asking is did the reduction slow down when the schools opened and by how much did it slow if so? There's no hidden agenda or attempt to score points

I have always been clear than any activity that increases contacts increases spread. The data is clear than schools opening did not cause a deterioration in the situation. Slower decline is still a good position to be in, with the added benefits of resuming education for children who badly needed it. The situation for vulnerable people continued to improve quickly

Increased testing was also a contributor to the flatlining however.

caveat emptor

Deleted User wrote: »

Like the exponential growth that stopped 3 days after the post you kindly resurrected from October before level 5?


The fact is though that cases in over 55s fell by 40% between when schools returned and the Easter holidays. Because, in general, community spread was being kept relatively under control. Those most at risk were faced with an improving situation, which has continued to improve.

If only under 55’s contacted the virus, there would be challenges, but no public health emergency.

Yeah it stop but that had quite a cost in terms of jobs and people living. Level 3 initially followed by house visit ban then followed by level 5. Don't be offended with what we said then. I got ridiculed for a month for suggesting that schools are having a major affect or using the word exponential. Kids absolutely need school. I think measures to prevent airborne spread need to be mandated. That can't be done until it's acknowledged though.

We personally avoided the grandparents during the period as it was obvious kids can spread asymptomatically which would manifest in something much nastier if interacting indoors with older age group. That's not fair on kids or grandparents.

On your last point I disagree. It's correct that death rate will drop dramatically which will lead for calls to open up naturally.

Cases have increased significantly in the school going age groups and parent age groups since schools went back. It is clear that the B 117 UK variant is more adept at spreading in the younger age groups.

They have also come down since the easter break. For all the talk of hold firm and do what you did two weeks ago the fact is that the dramatic decrease in number of close contacts on a familial level is what as been the only concrete change.

We've had extreme restrictions since January to get it back under control. It has been horrible. To see the cases drop in the older age groups is brilliant but not out of the woods. Any MEANINGFUL change in restrictions will likely see explosive growth in the younger age groups. If that gets to sufficient levels even with a a much smaller percentage of people affected it will have a significant affect on the healthcare system.

I'm completely sick of it like most people but that doesn't have anything to do with how this spreads.

Don't take my word for it though. Just look at Chile. We are nowhere near their vaccination rate.

Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour.
https://www.ft.com/content/89992bc9-051a-42b5-8be0-60edad4165cb

Jarbas Barbosa, the PAHO's assistant director, agrees that vaccination programmes will have a delayed effect, because as much as 70-80 per cent of the population needs to be immunised to prevent the virus from spreading. “We really don't know yet what is the level that will provide . . . herd immunity,” he said, adding that it was therefore “crucial to keep all the measures [in place] that can prevent transmission”.

For Ximena Aguilera, an epidemiologist on the Chilean health ministry’s advisory council, there are three broad reasons for the jump in daily coronavirus cases in Chile from fewer than 3,500 in late February to about 7,000 now.

First has been the spread of new, more virulent strains of the virus, particularly from Brazil. Second, Chileans have been moving about more after returning from summer holidays in March. And third, she said there had been less strict adherence to social distancing, partly because people felt safer owing to the vaccination programme — but also because of lockdown fatigue. 

https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1380173674947416065?s=20

Banana Republic 1

robbiezero wrote: »

Like what?
They didn't predict the Christmas surge.
They kept us locked down way too long last summer.
Putting us into Level 5 in November was a big mistake.
They didn't predict 4 months of Level 5 lockdown that we are still in and only for vaccinations, I'm not sure we could get out of it at all.
They have made absolutely no allowances or recommendations for outdoor activities in spite of them being almost no risk.
They have been bleating about being in a "precarious situation" for the last 6 weeks when we really should have been even slowly opening up some of the outdoor and travel restrictions.
I'm really not seeing what they have brought to the party at all, and yes I fully accept that the Government have been worse than useless all through it.

Those where all government decisions. Sick of this NEPHT NEPHT NEPHT stuff it’s MM and the leak that have put us in this situation.

Banana Republic 1

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

So no opinion other than the government is spineless. Okay. Just to note, on average, Ireland has a mortality rate 40% lower than our nearest neighbours: UK, Portugal, Spain, France, Netherlands and Belgium.

They also have up to 12 times our population.

daydorunrun

[quote="caveat emptor;116832023"


https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1380173674947416065?s=20[/quote]

Not a great advert for the Chinese Sinovac.
90% of vaccines used there are Sinovac. Efficacy about 50%

Probes

daydorunrun wrote: »

Not a great advert for the Chinese Sinovac.
90% of vaccines used there are Sinovac. Efficacy about 50%

It takes a month to get proper protection it seems. Chile have around 40% with one dose, a month ago it was around 20%. I've no idea about how good or not their vaccine is but they simply opened too fast.

Probes

Probes wrote: »

It takes a month to get proper protection it seems. Chile have around 40% with one dose, a month ago it was around 20%. I've no idea about how good or not their vaccine is but they simply opened too fast.

From the same article:

“We weren’t expecting an impact [of vaccines on infections] until June or even July,” said Miguel O’Ryan, a professor at the University of Chile’s medicine faculty who sits on the Chilean science ministry’s coronavirus vaccine advisory committee. “What we are seeing now is simply — and tragically — what happened in all of the northern hemisphere, with a few exceptions, as autumn started [six months ago].”

So it's not anything to do with the vaccine, it's the restrictions.

Doctor Jimbob

Is there any reason we're using Chile, a country that uses large amounts of a vaccine we don't have here as an example of vaccination success rather than looking at the US, UK, or Israel?

I could take a guess what the reason is, but if anyone wants to put forward a sensible reason I'm all ears.

fits

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Is there any reason we're using Chile, a country that uses large amounts of a vaccine we don't have here as an example of vaccination success rather than looking at the US, UK, or Israel?

I could take a guess what the reason is, but if anyone wants to put forward a sensible reason I'm all ears.

Wouldn’t it be a really bad idea to focus solely on the negative stories and discount the positive?

The converse of that is also true.

What Username Guidelines

DebDynamite wrote: »

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40261202.html

First hairdressers, now concerts. Talk of this vaccine bonus is really starting to annoy me. We locked down the whole country for nearly a year to protect the vulnerable, and now the vulnerable will be able to live a relatively normal life while the non-vulnerable continue to stay locked down. So much for we’re all in this together!

Whatever about bringing the vaccine passport/bonus in when every adult has been given the option of a vaccine, it’s grossly unfair to bring it in when only the vulnerable, healthcare workers or well connected people have had access to the vaccine.

We locked down for nearly a year as it was impossible to separate the vulnerable from the non vulnerable. Now we can separate them via vaccines. The rollout is frustratingly slow, yes, but we can technically “release” 20-30k people a day, or we can wait until everyone’s been offered a vaccine and then open. We’ve managed a year, we can wait a couple of months.

Faugheen

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

We locked down for nearly a year as it was impossible to separate the vulnerable from the non vulnerable. Now we can separate them via vaccines. The rollout is frustratingly slow, yes, but we can technically “release” 20-30k people a day, or we can wait until everyone’s been offered a vaccine and then open. We’ve managed a year, we can wait a couple of months.

Tell that to all the personal trainers who suddenly give a sh*t about people’s mental health and are definitely not hiding behind it to suit their own warped agenda.

prunudo

While its right to be cautious, and not open everything up, its also important to not loose sight of the fact hospital numbers are heading for 200, icu is approx 50. Also there must be over 1m people with immunity now between existing cases and vaccinations.
Approx 75% of new cases in the last few weeks are under 45 yr old and that isn't translating to hospitalisations that are out of control.
So Nphet and Ronan Glynn can try and deflect their role in this, but their over cautious recommendations are having a detrimental effect on how it effects the country as a whole.

Faugheen

prunudo wrote: »

While its right to be cautious, and not open everything up, its also important to not loose sight of the fact hospital numbers are heading for 200, icu is approx 50. Also there must be over 1m people with immunity now between existing cases and vaccinations.
Approx 75% of new cases in the last few weeks are under 45 yr old and that isn't translating to hospitalisations that are out of control.
So Nphet and Ronan Glynn can try and deflect their role in this, but their over cautious recommendations are having a detrimental effect on how it effects the country as a whole.

Tell that to the actual decision makers who are hiding behind NPHET when it comes to recommend lockdowns but actively avoid its recommendations which could help to avoid them.

Probes

prunudo wrote: »

While its right to be cautious, and not open everything up, its also important to not loose sight of the fact hospital numbers are heading for 200, icu is approx 50. Also there must be over 1m people with immunity now between existing cases and vaccinations.
Approx 75% of new cases in the last few weeks are under 45 yr old and that isn't translating to hospitalisations that are out of control.
So Nphet and Ronan Glynn can try and deflect their role in this, but their over cautious recommendations are having a detrimental effect on how it effects the country as a whole.

In my opinion the younger generations have given up a lot, now it’s the older generations turn to remain patient until we have a suitable level of vaccination across the board so that we can open up successfully and not with any of the issues that we’ve seen across the world. I don’t see how we are at that point yet.

It seems strikingly unfair to assume under 45s are not bothered about catching this virus.

namloc1980

DebDynamite wrote: »

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40261202.html

First hairdressers, now concerts. Talk of this vaccine bonus is really starting to annoy me. We locked down the whole country for nearly a year to protect the vulnerable, and now the vulnerable will be able to live a relatively normal life while the non-vulnerable continue to stay locked down. So much for we’re all in this together!

Whatever about bringing the vaccine passport/bonus in when every adult has been given the option of a vaccine, it’s grossly unfair to bring it in when only the vulnerable, healthcare workers or well connected people have had access to the vaccine.

.

Looks like Croke Park will be full of old people, HCW and the privileged for the summer. The rest can go take a hike. And if you're getting AstraZeneca then you might as well write off the summer due to its 14 week timeframe for full immunity.

prunudo

Faugheen wrote: »

Tell that to the actual decision makers who are hiding behind NPHET when it comes to recommend lockdowns but actively avoid its recommendations which could help to avoid them.

Oh there's no denying the government are hiding behind them but Nphet know the government won't go against the majority of their recommendations. They are also put on a pedestal twice a week and their opinions are reported constantly by the media. So yes, while the government have a lot to answer to, Nphet are not blameless in all this.

What Username Guidelines

Faugheen wrote: »

Tell that to all the personal trainers who suddenly give a sh*t about people’s mental health and are definitely not hiding behind it to suit their own warped agenda.

Everyone’s got an agenda.

People wanted a living with covid plan but went nuts when living with covid meant enduring restrictions.

People want to let the “healthy” get on with their lives but go nuts when it’ll be the most vulnerable that are declared “healthy” first.

Basically everyone wants covid to **** off, but there is a large cohort who pseudo support restrictions, as in they’re shouting for them as long as it doesn’t restrict them.

wadacrack

DebDynamite wrote: »

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40261202.html

First hairdressers, now concerts. Talk of this vaccine bonus is really starting to annoy me. We locked down the whole country for nearly a year to protect the vulnerable, and now the vulnerable will be able to live a relatively normal life while the non-vulnerable continue to stay locked down. So much for we’re all in this together!

Whatever about bringing the vaccine passport/bonus in when every adult has been given the option of a vaccine, it’s grossly unfair to bring it in when only the vulnerable, healthcare workers or well connected people have had access to the vaccine.

Its a good point but it might save some business's if they can at least get back a few weeks before the vast majority are vaccinated. If theirs some sort of positive to take from it.

I guess its something we will have to accept. It seems to be the what is likely to happen in the UK and the rest of Europe. No chance Ireland would take a riskier approach. We all know that.

The problem is if the hospital rates and cases are very low in the summer and younger people are restricted due to a lack of supply for a vaccine then their maybe alot of anger. Common sense needs to prevail at some stage

Vicxas

209 in hospital, thats fantastic news

Doctor Jimbob

fits wrote: »

Wouldn’t it be a really bad idea to focus solely on the negative stories and discount the positive?

The converse of that is also true.

I completely agree.

So why are some people so intent on focusing on a negative country instead of looking at the bigger picture?

Leftwaffe

namloc1980 wrote: »

.

Looks like Croke Park will be full of old people, HCW and the privileged for the summer. The rest can go take a hike. And if you're getting AstraZeneca then you might as well write off the summer due to its 14 week timeframe for full immunity.

Honestly it’s a disgrace. And a kick in the teeth to everyone who have had their lives turned upside down in order the protect the vulnerable and elderly.

I’m so frustrated this morning. Vaccines were supposed to change everything and there’s still no hope in sight. I have no trust in the government to reach the vaccine targets and once we do it will be another excuse as to why restrictions must remain.

I’d love to pack up my family and get out of here, honestly. Was speaking to a friend of mine on the phone who lives in Australia and it would just rot you.

Faugheen

prunudo wrote: »

Oh there's no denying the government are hiding behind them but Nphet know the government won't go against the majority of their recommendations. They are also put on a pedestal twice a week and their opinions are reported constantly by the media. So yes, while the government have a lot to answer to, Nphet are not blameless in all this.

NPHET make recommendations related to public health. Nothing else. To peddle the nonsense of them knowing how much power they have is completely divisive. Government make the decisions. They decide to hide behind NPHET when it comes to the really tough decisions and do anything to prevent other recommendations to try to avoid future lockdowns.

But no. All NPHET’s fault.

is_that_so

2 big numbers should be coming up very soon - under 200 in hospital and under 50 in ICU!

Leftwaffe

is_that_so wrote: »

2 big numbers should be coming up very soon - under 200 in hospital and under 50 in ICU!

Whilst it’s good news it makes zero difference to the rest of us. If there was nothing only a cat in hospital with covid we’d still be locked down.

is_that_so

Leftwaffe wrote: »

Honestly it’s a disgrace. And a kick in the teeth to everyone who have had their lives turned upside down in order the protect the vulnerable and elderly.

I’m so frustrated this morning. Vaccines were supposed to change everything and there’s still no hope in sight. I have no trust in the government to reach the vaccine targets and once we do it will be another excuse as to why restrictions must remain.

I’d love to pack up my family and get out of here, honestly. Was speaking to a friend of mine on the phone who lives in Australia and it would just rot you.

Vaccines in enough people will change things and we'll restrictions change from Monday next, slowly perhaps, but still changing. We're still a couple of months away yet but going the right way.