Covid 19 Part XXXIV-249,437 ROI(4,906 deaths) 120,195 NI (2,145 deaths)(01/05)Read OP

Faugheen

JDD wrote: »

If we have all over 65s vaccinated, and all 18-64 high risk individuals vaccinated, and then let the virus be transmitted freely in a completely opened society for a period of say, five months, what will the impact be on hospitalisations? Of course the majority of hospitalisations are over 65s and high risk individuals, so once they are taken out of the equation, and the R number rises to 4-5, what are the chances that lots of younger people with no underlying conditions end up in hospital, and is it at a rate that for a period of six weeks or so that hospitals will be able to cope?

I am sure that the HSE have modelled this scenario, with various models depending on the level of opening and on best and worst case scenarios for vaccine deliveries.

I personally think it's impossible to model that scenario because if you're generally healthy it appears to impact people in different ways. I'm not a medical professional by any means so happy to be proven wrong in this case.

My sister knows of two brothers who got it. Both fit, healthy lads with no underlying conditions. One was quite ill but never needed hospital treatment but the other spent time in ICU.

Similarly I know someone who only lost their sense of taste, but it took him a long time to get it back. He would be on zoom showing us how he could take a swig of vinegar and not feel anything.

Likewise you hear stories of very old/medically vulnerable people getting it and it being very mild. However there's enough data/evidence to show the impact in older and medically vulnerable people.

It truly is a mind**** of a disease.

CoronaBlocker

JDD wrote: »

It's not a question of whether vaccinated people have anything to fear from unvaccinated in a pub, or whether people under 65 who are concerned about catching the virus while they wait for their vaccination should be protected by ongoing lockdowns or any of that nonsense.

It's about hospitalisations.

If we have all over 65s vaccinated, and all 18-64 high risk individuals vaccinated, and then let the virus be transmitted freely in a completely opened society for a period of say, five months, what will the impact be on hospitalisations? Of course the majority of hospitalisations are over 65s and high risk individuals, so once they are taken out of the equation, and the R number rises to 4-5, what are the chances that lots of younger people with no underlying conditions end up in hospital, and is it at a rate that for a period of six weeks or so that hospitals will be able to cope?

I am sure that the HSE have modelled this scenario, with various models depending on the level of opening and on best and worst case scenarios for vaccine deliveries.

I suppose there is, conceivably, a situation where this so called ramp up in deliveries may not meet our expectations. And in that scenario, coupled with completely opening retail and hospitality, we may find that hospitalisations of healthy younger people overwhelm the hospital system.

Of course if vaccines are delivered on schedule it may only be a short window when infections are high. Or, if vaccines don't arrive on time but we don't open completely, we can keep the R number down below 2 or 3 so again that window of high infections is slower to get to and spread out over a longer time period.

Or, of course, even with fully opening and delays in vaccine deliveries the level of hospitalisations in the young and healthy may be manageable. In that case there is no justification for continuing any of the restrictions.

I don't think anyone here called for everything to all be opened up, at the same time, immediately. Rather that when things open up, that they open up for everyone together - ie without segregation.

It's also been referred to that as any need to cover out new variants or spikes, that measures are taken proportionately.

Also worth remembering - and it has been acknowledged - that the old and the vulnerable (and HCWs too) vaccinations are already having a major effect on hospitalisation figures so it definitely begs a question about whether we will ever see further spikes in hospitalisation figures again - let alone to the point where new measures would be needed.

Faugheen

CoronaBlocker wrote: »

Big non sequitur. That comment is part of a greater debate - debate it with the OP or move on.

Personal insults however are, as I understand it, against the rules here.

As is backseat modding but you like to break the rules as they suit you.

Sweet.Science

My Father in law got a positive test and called for his vaccine on the same day

Can only laugh at how unlucky that is

Russman

Sweet.Science wrote: »

My Father in law got a positive test and called for his vaccine on the same day

Can only laugh at how unlucky that is

How are you doing with it SS ? Must be nearly over it by now ?

bodhrandude

Sweet.Science wrote: »

My Father in law got a positive test and called for his vaccine on the same day

Can only laugh at how unlucky that is

Sorry to hear that Sweet.Science, hopefully he'll be OK.

Sweet.Science

Russman wrote: »

How are you doing with it SS ? Must be nearly over it by now ?

Yeah all good the little one was finished up yesterday and i am finished up Sunday . The FIL seems to have got a mild dose thankfully. My daughter got the worst dose out of everyone . That surprised me .

AdamD

Turtwig wrote: »

It wouldn't really be applied to shops though. It would be applied to indoor venues that no longer require social distancing. Pubs, restaurants, nightclubs, concert halls, arts etc. Potentially given them option of resuming service months earlier.

I find it hard to believe they wouldn't give serious consideration to this.

This is beyond unrealistic because you cannot have a scenario where the majority of the workers in the pub, restaurant or concert venue are not actually allowed to attend in their own time with their friends

Somehow we've changed the conversation to needing everyone vaccinated for any hospitality, which is beyond ridiculous. We can absolutely have outdoor hospiality for everyone, before everyone is vaccinated.

podgeandrodge

Dublin Live:

"New Covid data shows worrying trend in Ireland's supermarkets and shops"

"New Covid-19 data has pointed to supermarkets as the most likely source of infection in a worrying development............"

Same article: "The HSE's lead on test and trace Niamh O'Beirne has said this does not mean that there is any particular increased risk associated with shopping/supermarkets but rather it’s the most common thing people have been telling the contact tracers."


Per Irish Times:

Of those who did not know the source of their infection, 55.8 per cent mentioned shops as the most likely place they would have picked up the disease in the previous seven days.

This was followed by workplaces (15.6 per cent), primary schools (3.8 per cent), public transport or car sharing (3.5 per cent), travel at home or abroad (2 per cent), outdoor gatherings (1.9 per cent), pre-school gatherings (1.8 per cent) and outdoor sports activities (1.7 per cent).

Niamh O’Beirne, the HSE’s national lead for track and trace, said the findings of the contract tracers do not mean that shops are necessarily unsafe environments.

“All the list tells you is where people were. It does not tell you that you got it there. The high numbers from shops reflect where people have been,” she said.

We've all been in supermarkets every week. Seems a stretch to make much of a leap here.

Lucas Hood

I'd imagine people aren't as forthcoming with where they might have actually picked it up as the contact tracers would like.

If shopping was as risky as that data suggests I'd expect a lot more shop staff to be picking it up.

Hellrazer

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Dublin Live:

"New Covid data shows worrying trend in Ireland's supermarkets and shops"

"New Covid-19 data has pointed to supermarkets as the most likely source of infection in a worrying development............"

Ah FFS -

So far we`ve had the blame put on

Pubs, Restaurants, Travel, Hotels, Schools, Clothes shops, Shoe Shops, Hospitals ,Take away pints, outdoor exercise, travelling beyond 5km, pubs that dont serve a 9.00 euro meal , house parties, gatherings of certain sizes,funerals, weddings.


And now we have SUPERMARKETS.

NPHET are going to have an absolute fcuking field day with this one.

We`ll be locked down until those drones can deliver food and essential items to every house in the country.

God help us!!!

Faugheen

Hellrazer wrote: »

Ah FFS -

So far we`ve had the blame put on

Pubs, Restaurants, Travel, Hotels, Schools, Clothes shops, Shoe Shops, Hospitals ,Take away pints, outdoor exercise, travelling beyond 5km, pubs that dont serve a 9.00 euro meal , house parties, gatherings of certain sizes,funerals, weddings.


And now we have SUPERMARKETS.

NPHET are going to have an absolute fcuking field day with this one.

We`ll be locked down until those drones can deliver food and essential items to every house in the country.

God help us!!!

Actually Ronan Glynn was asked about this yesterday. He said he wasn’t aware of the data but that he would be ‘dumbfounded’ if this was the case.

harr

I know two people who tested positive recently and both were at same house having drinks where I presume they picked it up .. both told the contact tracing that the only place they had been was the local supermarket and petrol station because they didn’t want to get the house owner in bother if they mentioned they were at a party .

Turtwig

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Dublin Live:

"New Covid data shows worrying trend in Ireland's supermarkets and shops"

"New Covid-19 data has pointed to supermarkets as the most likely source of infection in a worrying development............"

Same article: "The HSE's lead on test and trace Niamh O'Beirne has said this does not mean that there is any particular increased risk associated with shopping/supermarkets but rather it’s the most common thing people have been telling the contact tracers."


Per Irish Times:

Of those who did not know the source of their infection, 55.8 per cent mentioned shops as the most likely place they would have picked up the disease in the previous seven days.

This was followed by workplaces (15.6 per cent), primary schools (3.8 per cent), public transport or car sharing (3.5 per cent), travel at home or abroad (2 per cent), outdoor gatherings (1.9 per cent), pre-school gatherings (1.8 per cent) and outdoor sports activities (1.7 per cent).

Niamh O’Beirne, the HSE’s national lead for track and trace, said the findings of the contract tracers do not mean that shops are necessarily unsafe environments.

“All the list tells you is where people were. It does not tell you that you got it there. The high numbers from shops reflect where people have been,” she said.

We've all been in supermarkets every week. Seems a stretch to make much of a leap here.

That is such a misleading headline and article.
Might as well start implying people got covid in their bathrooms because they use them everyday.

ednwireland

Hellrazer wrote: »

Ah FFS -

So far we`ve had the blame put on

Pubs, Restaurants, Travel, Hotels, Schools, Clothes shops, Shoe Shops, Hospitals ,Take away pints, outdoor exercise, travelling beyond 5km, pubs that dont serve a 9.00 euro meal , house parties, gatherings of certain sizes,funerals, weddings.


And now we have SUPERMARKETS.

NPHET are going to have an absolute fcuking field day with this one.

We`ll be locked down until those drones can deliver food and essential items to every house in the country.

God help us!!!

people going round each others house then telling track and trace sure i havent been anywhere apart form the supermarket !

wadacrack

"New Covid data shows worrying trend in Ireland's supermarkets and shops"

Cruel at this stage, Will cause unnecessary anxiety to vulnerable people who have to shop for themselves.

seamus

Faugheen wrote: »

Actually Ronan Glynn was asked about this yesterday. He said he wasn’t aware of the data but that he would be ‘dumbfounded’ if this was the case.

No, NPHET won't be relying on this. Even the contact tracing team are being careful to point out that people didn't blame the shops, just that when asked to list where they'd been, 55% of people said they'd been to the shops.

I imagine if you took any random sample of people and asked them where they'd been in the last week, at least half would say "the shops".

As noted above, most people will have a good inkling of where and when they caught it, but they don't want to admit they spent two hours chatting and drinking tea in the neighbours, so they blame the supermarket or the postman instead.

Given the volume of traffic in and out of supermarkets, we'd still be seeing thousands of daily cases if half of all infections were picked up there.

NPHET know this.

DublinLive is considered a rag even by Daily Mail readers. Anyone even reading their stuff needs their head examined.

Turtwig

AdamD wrote: »

This is beyond unrealistic because you cannot have a scenario where the majority of the workers in the pub, restaurant or concert venue are not actually allowed to attend in their own time with their friends

Somehow we've changed the conversation to needing everyone vaccinated for any hospitality, which is beyond ridiculous. We can absolutely have outdoor hospiality for everyone, before everyone is vaccinated.

I'm open to correction but as I understand it that was exactly what happened in Israel. You could work in the restaurant. You couldn't enter it as a customer. Under 16s have to eat outdoors.

Antares35

I'm sorry if this has been brought up, I haven't been on this thread for a while! One thing that dawned on me the last day or two in relation to non- essential retail, why didn't they allow shops to open with pre- booked shopping slots for people? Even if you were to pay say a fiver for a 30 minute slot and they allowed in say 30 people (depending on shop size) and then do a quick clean then the next half hour group come in and so on.

People are really getting so fed up and I know non-essential retail is, well non-essential! But it would give a few people something to look forward to, keep some staff off the PUP, for some businesses could be enough to keep them afloat for now.

The whole thing could be quite well managed and kept safe, and to be honest when you see Lidl or Dunnes full of people bashing each other with trollies and generally not keeping distance or being safe, it's hard to argue against non essential retail implementing a more controlled experience. Just a thought.

Wolf359f

wadacrack wrote: »

"New Covid data shows worrying trend in Ireland's supermarkets and shops"

Cruel at this stage, Will cause unnecessary anxiety to vulnerable people who have to shop for themselves.

Deja Vu. Was there not articles about the very same thing months and months ago. And again it was just the most common place people went. Seemed bull**** then and same now!

ednwireland

Antares35 wrote: »

I'm sorry if this has been brought up, I haven't been on this thread for a while! One thing that dawned on me the last day or two in relation to non- essential retail, why didn't they allow shops to open with pre- booked shopping slots for people? Even if you were to pay say a fiver for a 30 minute slot and they allowed in say 30 people (depending on shop size) and then do a quick clean then the next half hour group come in and so on.

People are really getting so fed up and I know non-essential retail is, well non-essential! But it would give a few people something to look forward to, keep some staff off the PUP, for some businesses could be enough to keep them afloat for now.

The whole thing could be quite well managed and kept safe, and to be honest when you see Lidl or Dunnes full of people bashing each other with trollies and generally not keeping distance or being safe, it's hard to argue that against non essential retail implementing a more controlled experience. Just a thought.

i think the point of closing it was so you didnt have anywhere to go, you wouldnt go to the shop nip round your friends house on the way home etc etc

Antares35

ednwireland wrote: »

i think the point of closing it was so you didnt have anywhere to go, you wouldnt go to the shop nip round your friends house on the way home etc etc

Ok that sounds reasonable, but then one could also argue if you can go to the shop you have something to do, so you won't go and visit your friend which you might do because there isn't anything else to do!

Lucas Hood

457 positive swabs, 2.72% positivity on 16,795 tests.
7 day test positivity is 2.7%.

titan18

Turtwig wrote: »

I'm open to correction but as I understand it that was exactly what happened in Israel. You could work in the restaurant. You couldn't enter it as a customer. Under 16s have to eat outdoors.

It's a bit of a kick in the teeth for the people working there though. Hi, it's safe for you to work here and serve the lucky people but don't dare try to come in with your friends as that's too dangerous.

seamus

Week-on-week, positive swab numbers are down 27%. That kind of decay we haven't seen since numbers were in freefall at the end of January/start of Feb.

I don't really know what's going on, but I like it.

6 of the last 7 seven days have been under 3% positivity. 7-day swab average is now 425.

There is a question about Easter and whether we'll see a bump from it. If we do, it'll appear at the beginning of next week.

If we don't, then we're on the pig's back, baby.

wadacrack

seamus wrote: »

Week-on-week, positive swab numbers are down 27%. That kind of decay we haven't seen since numbers were in freefall at the end of January/start of Feb.

I don't really know what's going on, but I like it.

6 of the last 7 seven days have been under 3% positivity. 7-day swab average is now 425.

There is a question about Easter and whether we'll see a bump from it. If we do, it'll appear at the beginning of next week.

If we don't, then we're on the pig's back, baby.

I think weather played a big part tbh. People I'd imagine wanted to be outdoors. Was a good few weeks of awful weather before that.

Lucas Hood

Lowest 7 day positivity rate since December 15th I think.

AdamD

seamus wrote: »

It's just more complex than that tbh. I don't understand it fully. 16% vaccinated won't reduce the R0 by 16%. Especially when the entire population is under containment measures and the immunised population are the least likely to be mixing.

If there were no restrictions and it was a free-for-all then we would likely see some impact on case numbers from that 16%.

https://ibmathsresources.com/2014/05/17/modelling-infectious-diseases/



The middle image shows a small amount of immunisation and while the actual number of cases may be slightly less, the R0 hasn't dropped by that amount.

Herd immunity is really the only game in town and going by the link above, it's about 72% for Covid-19.

Just going back to this - is the model used based off a lengthy timeline? As in, over a long period of time having 30% vaccinated doesn't stop the spread in a meaningful way. However I would have thought that in any given week it would?

CoronaBlocker

titan18 wrote: »

It's a bit of a kick in the teeth for the people working there though. Hi, it's safe for you to work here and serve the lucky people but don't dare try to come in with your friends as that's too dangerous.

Ye, it's absurd and it'd be extremely unfair to implement here after the destructive year so many have had in order to protect others.

Oh... but you need the young and healthy section of the community to check you in and serve your food? Well, why didn't you say so?!

If vaccinated people are vaccinated, what is stopping them from being able to mix with the rest of us? Wasn't that the point? If they can mix with us when we work then they can mix with us when we socialise too.

Herb Powell

lol. Supermarkets spreading COVID, even when rates were tumbling last year while no one was wearing masks and they were the only places still open. Yeah. Seems legit.