Covid 19 Part XXXIV-249,437 ROI(4,906 deaths) 120,195 NI (2,145 deaths)(01/05)Read OP

Sanjuro

MerlinSouthDub

AdamD wrote: »

Just going back to this - is the model used based off a lengthy timeline? As in, over a long period of time having 30% vaccinated doesn't stop the spread in a meaningful way. However I would have thought that in any given week it would?

Yes, each person vaccinated will slow the growth rate (reduce the R), assuming vaccines stop the spread effectively (which they probably do, based on UK/Israel date)

If R is 3, for example, you need 67% vaccinated to get the R below 1 (herd immunity)

But 50% vaccinated for example would reduce R from 3 to 1.5 (still fast spread, but much less bad). Every person vaccinated reduces the spread by a tiny bit.

seamus

AdamD wrote: »

Just going back to this - is the model used based off a lengthy timeline? As in, over a long period of time having 30% vaccinated doesn't stop the spread in a meaningful way. However I would have thought that in any given week it would?

I don't know tbh. Logically one would think that there has to be some level of delaying effect, but I don't think it would be as simple as a 30% delay because the infection spreads around any blockage.
The chain of infection doesn't have to be linear; A > B > C

If B is vaccinated, that doesn't mean C is also protected, as it can still spread directly from A to C or from A to D to C. And that's doesn't have to take 30% longer.

In my head I have network routing algorithms; if you removed 30% of the nodes in your network, traffic wouldn't take 30% longer to reach its destination.

I'm probably way off though.

Ten of Swords

Banana Republic 1 wrote: »

Does that mean you won’t raise your ugly head in this place anymore after that date ?

CoronaBlocker wrote: »

Third time's a charm! Well done!

CoronaBlocker wrote: »

Are usernames not enough for you then?
Re the rest of your post... oooooookay!

Mods?!

Banana Republic 1 wrote: »

I see what your doing CoronaBlocker or should I say Gustav Von Trollington. Your tactics include replies to posts that aren’t directed at you in order to confuse people into thinking your original OP and then gaslight them.

CoronaBlocker wrote: »

Big non sequitur. That comment is part of a greater debate - debate it with the OP or move on.

Personal insults however are, as I understand it, against the rules here.

Banana Republic 1 and CoronaBlocker both threadbanned. Do not post in this thread again

MerlinSouthDub

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Yes, each person vaccinated will slow the growth rate (reduce the R), assuming vaccines stop the spread effectively (which they probably do, based on UK/Israel date)

If R is 3, for example, you need 67% vaccinated to get the R below 1 (herd immunity)

But 50% vaccinated for example would reduce R from 3 to 1.5 (still fast spread, but much less bad). Every person vaccinated reduces the spread by a tiny bit.

Vaccinated and previously infected, which means at r0 of 3 we probably need somewhere close to 55% vaccinated

wadacrack

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Yes, each person vaccinated will slow the growth rate (reduce the R), assuming vaccines stop the spread effectively (which they probably do, based on UK/Israel date)

If R is 3, for example, you need 67% vaccinated to get the R below 1 (herd immunity)

But 50% vaccinated for example would reduce R from 3 to 1.5 (still fast spread, but much less bad). Every person vaccinated reduces the spread by a tiny bit.

This is based on flu models. This virus spreads predominantly with superspreading events. The Ro will be below 1 in the summer with 40-50 % I'm pretty confident myself. The models are useful particularly with lower numbers but flawed past a certian point.

Eod100

Great to see such low positivity. Hopefully stays that way over next few weeks and can ease restrictions this month and next. Getting there slowly but surely

JohnMcm1

Sanjuro wrote: »

Fantastic to see the positivity rate dropping, hopefully we can start to open up in August.

JohnMcm1

JohnMcm1 wrote: »

Fantastic to see the positivity rate dropping, hopefully we can start to open up in August.

May.

JohnMcm1

Deleted User wrote: »

May.

Highly unlikely, figures still hovering around 3-500 daily.

paddyisreal

JohnMcm1 wrote: »

Highly unlikely, figures still hovering around 3-500 daily.

who gives a fiddlers about the numbers, its icu and hospitilizations and the fact that the elderly and vulnerable have gotthe jab. well thats the line we have been fed for the last year anyway.

Doctor Jimbob

JohnMcm1 wrote: »

Highly unlikely, figures still hovering around 3-500 daily.

7 day average yesterday was down to 446 from 549 a week previously.

Hospital numbers are continuing to decline, as are ICU numbers.

Positivity % is under 3 and falling.

Deaths are either stable or falling.

Looking at case numbers alone is overly simplistic, and will only become more so as vaccination ramps up.

If the trends continue for the rest of this month, there's no reason we can't look at accelerating reopening in May.

Cb12345

JohnMcm1 wrote: »

Highly unlikely, figures still hovering around 3-500 daily.

While true. These aren't translating into loads of hospitalisations/ICU. As things stand these figures declining even with 500 or so cases a day. This, to my in no way professional, mind is 100% manageable.

seamus

Hospital numbers reported really late today for some reason.

Nevertheless now down to 212 in hospital, that's down 14 on yesterday and up by just 3 on last night.

There's a possibility the evening numbers tonight will be below 200, but I don't think we'll see it "officially" below 200 until the middle of next week.

hmmm

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Looking at case numbers alone is overly simplistic, and will only become more so as vaccination ramps up.

If the trends continue for the rest of this month, there's no reason we can't look at accelerating reopening in May.

End of May at best I'd say, June more likely. Israel seems to have safely reopened at about 50% vaccinated, with perhaps another 15% being previously infected.

So 65% is the figure I have in my head for a significant relaxation (e.g. outdoor dining), and we should be about there in June - but with more than a million doses a month at that time we should see further relaxation following relatively quickly. Some big calls for the Government ahead.

JohnMcm1

Hopefully we get a few months out of level 5 a anyway before a vaccine resistant strain makes its way over and we end up back at square one.

Van.Bosch

JohnMcm1 wrote: »

Hopefully we get a few months out of level 5 a anyway before a vaccine resistant strain makes its way over and we end up back at square one.

That’s the spirit - blind pessimism!

timsey tiger

JohnMcm1 wrote: »

Well people will be in for a rude awakening if they think this is the end of it. The majority of my contacts with backgrounds in virology seem to agree.

you should limit your "contact" with Internet troll bots

jackboy

JohnMcm1 wrote: »

Well people will be in for a rude awakening if they think this is the end of it. The majority of my contacts with backgrounds in virology seem to agree.

Sure we are all virologists now.

seamus

You can always spot a WUM when they claim to not only have contacts who are virologists, but they have enough of them to form a confident opinion poll on what's going to happen next

I have a number of contacts with a medical background. I don't know a single virologist. I expect the only people who know a lot of virologists, are virologists.

JohnMcm1

seamus wrote: »

You can always spot a WUM when they claim to not only have contacts who are virologists, but they have enough of them to form a confident opinion poll on what's going to happen next

I'm not claiming to know exactly how it's going to pan out, I'm merely making a prediction based on the current best evidence. If you had any background knowledge you would know this is how science works.

eagle eye

My friend who spent three weeks in ICU, got released then back in and needing a machine to help him breath for a couple of weeks got his vaccine two weeks ago and told me today that he feels 95% recovered. Great news. This was a guy with no underlying conditions at 50 years of age.

iamwhoiam

seamus wrote: »

You can always spot a WUM when they claim to not only have contacts who are virologists, but they have enough of them to form a confident opinion poll on what's going to happen next

I have a number of contacts with a medical background. I don't know a single virologist. I expect the only people who know a lot of virologists, are virologists.

I wonder what the collective name for virologists is ? An envelope of virologists maybe ?

MerlinSouthDub

hmmm wrote: »

End of May at best I'd say, June more likely. Israel seems to have safely reopened at about 50% vaccinated, with perhaps another 15% being previously infected.

So 65% is the figure I have in my head for a significant relaxation (e.g. outdoor dining), and we should be about there in June - but with more than a million doses a month at that time we should see further relaxation following relatively quickly. Some big calls for the Government ahead.

If we can keep cases at the relatively low levels we currently have, we should be able to open up earlier. Israel had up to 10,000 cases per day in February. That's 10 times our infection rate (per capita). They couldn't afford to take any risks given where they were at. We can afford to take some carefully considered risks. We probably won't though!

User142

JohnMcm1 wrote: »

Well people will be in for a rude awakening if they think this is the end of it. The majority of my contacts with backgrounds in virology seem to agree.

I too follow Sam McConkey and Gerry Killen on twitter.

JohnMcm1

JohnMcm1 wrote: »

Well people will be in for a rude awakening if they think this is the end of it. The majority of my contacts with backgrounds in virology seem to agree.

is_that_so

iamwhoiam wrote: »

I wonder what the collective name for virologists is ? An envelope of virologists maybe ?

A petri dish or a squabble?

purplefields

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Dublin Live:

"New Covid data shows worrying trend in Ireland's supermarkets and shops"

"New Covid-19 data has pointed to supermarkets as the most likely source of infection in a worrying development............"

The supermarket is the only place (and probably many others) that I go each week. Where else could I possibly catch it?

It's not 'worrying', it's just because supermarkets and shops are the only place left for a large chunk of people. What else are we meant to do? - grow our own food?

lawred2

purplefields wrote: »

The supermarket is the only place (and probably many others) that I go each week. Where else could I possibly catch it?

It's not 'worrying', it's just because supermarkets and shops are the only place left for a large chunk of people. What else are we meant to do? - grow our own food?

starve yourself to stay safe

SnuggyBear

harr wrote: »

I know two people who tested positive recently and both were at same house having drinks where I presume they picked it up .. both told the contact tracing that the only place they had been was the local supermarket and petrol station because they didn’t want to get the house owner in bother if they mentioned they were at a party .

lol I'd imagine a lot of people say that. Sure I went nowhere...