Covid 19 Part XXXIV-249,437 ROI(4,906 deaths) 120,195 NI (2,145 deaths)(01/05)Read OP

caveat emptor

Is anyone watching the briefing on RTE. I'm not sure I heard correctly there. She gave figures on the older age group and stated that you were 80 times more likely to die from cover if taking AZ.

but when asked on the younger if you are between 20 -30 you are twice as likely to die from covid relative than you were to get one of these rare clotting event.

Doctor Jimbob

caveat emptor wrote: »

Is anyone watching the briefing on RTE. I'm not sure I heard correctly there. She gave figures on the older age group and stated that you were 80 times more likely to die from cover if taking AZ.

but when asked on the younger if you are between 20 -30 you are twice as likely to die from covid relative than you were to get one of these rare clotting event.

If you've heard that correctly, and considering death is not the only negative outcome from covid, it seems baffling that we'd stop using AZ in under 60s.

irishguy1983

Faugheen wrote: »

You would be very stupid to do this.

I get the frustration, but you look at Nolan, Glynn etc and tell me they want to keep everyone locked up and under control. They don’t. They’re just as f*cked as the rest of us.

I know, I know - you are correct and I said that flippantly...I am beginning to wonder at this stage though...

RedPaddyX

Listening to David McWilliams podcast earlier - some very interesting stats, eg

- Ireland has lowest old people demographic in Europe, ie our vulnerable pop is way lower
- we spend the most per head of population on our health service. Yet still have by far lowest number of ICU beds per pop.
- we have locked down for longer than nearly every other country (231days vs 41days in Denmark for example)

In other words our handling of this has been a disaster/poor. And our health service is grossly mismanaged. And we’ve also destroyed - continue to even further destroy our economy.

https://overcast.fm/+SE4yimgo0

caveat emptor

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

If you've heard that correctly, and considering death is not the only negative outcome from covid, it seems baffling that we'd stop using AZ in under 60s.

I'm not sure Jimbob. I think it makes sense for them to not give it to the younger age groups.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/207273/covid-19-deaths-infection-fatality-ratio-about/

Please read with extreme caution. I was genuinely shocked to here this and I could easily be interpreting incorrectly.

Reason being. If the probability of dying from covid in that age group is 0.1%.(really very rare)
The probability of a clotting event is then 0.05% (death due to covid 2X times more likely that the rare clotting event, even more rare)

Problem is if you proceed to vaccinate all of those younger age groups there will be more death and morbidity in that age group than death from disease.

Just to add, good decision if so. I've a loved one with a platelet condition so trying to make sense of it and understand if related.

Doctor Jimbob

caveat emptor wrote: »

I'm not sure Jimbob. I think it makes sense for them to not give it to the younger age groups.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/207273/covid-19-deaths-infection-fatality-ratio-about/

Please read with extreme caution. I was genuinely shocked to here this and I could easily be interpreting incorrectly.

Reason being. If the probability of dying from covid in that age group is 0.1%.(really very rare)
The probability of a clotting event is then 0.5% (death due to covid 2X times more likely that the rare clotting event)

Problem is if you proceed to vaccinate all of those younger age groups there will be more death and morbidity in that age group than death from disease.

Just to add, good decision if so.

I was in the middle of typing a reply when I realised the obvious mistake I was making - obviously the number of people who will catch covid is lower than the number who will get the vaccine.

Bearing that in mind, if what you heard is accurate, then yeah, that's fair enough for the 20-30 age group at least.

irishguy1983

RedPaddyX wrote: »

Listening to David McWilliams podcast earlier - some very interesting stats, eg

- Ireland has lowest old people demographic in Europe, ie our vulnerable pop is way lower
- we spend the most per head of population on our health service. Yet still have by far lowest number of ICU beds per pop.
- we have locked down for longer than nearly every other country (231days vs 41days in Denmark for example)

In other words our handling of this has been a disaster/poor. And our health service is grossly mismanaged. And we’ve also destroyed - continue to even further destroy our economy.

https://overcast.fm/+SE4yimgo0

A different angle might be to say we are the best at lockdowns

podgeandrodge

ddarcy wrote: »

I’d say they are working on that problem. As much as people may not like it, if the NAIC say is unsafe for under 60’s, the government will have issues in requiring the second shot of an unsafe vaccine. Since it’s EUA they’ll really have issues, even if they make a case for the greater good.

The issue now will be when to get cohort 4 under 60’s in to get Pfizer/Moderna/ J&J. How much time will need to elapse etc for the vaccination. I’m going to guess they kick the decision down the road in hopes that second jab of another vaccine works and approved by the EMA / AZ gets more safety information to allow the second dose be given.

The government will have major issues if they require the 12 week break and then start you on the 6 week program of another vaccine.

France said under 55s who received a first injection of the AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine should be given a jab from a different producer for their second dose, a ruling affecting more than 500,000 people

podgeandrodge

CruelSummer wrote: »

Why is Anthony Staines being rolled out on RTÉ once again, without a question in the world re email leaks or Saul Alinsky’s Rules for Radicals which he was involved in sharing to his fellow peers on ISAG.
Cathríona Perry on Six One with a nice cosy little chat with him, free pass on any sort of misleading information he and his colleagues have stated in the previous 12 months.

"Only" 200k a year, and she can't ask a difficult question. They wanted parity with Dobson, but at least Dobson could do a strong interview.

PTH2009

Disaster

prunudo

Was anything of interest said at the briefing?

ddarcy

podgeandrodge wrote: »

France said under 55s who received a first injection of the AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine should be given a jab from a different producer for their second dose, a ruling affecting more than 500,000 people

I saw that. There are clinical trials going on for this now too. I think the government is too scared to do this and say you’re fully vaccinated. The only two solutions were forced the second AZ or set up a restart plan to get 2 of the Pfizer/Moderna or 1 of J&J. Think the road they are taking will cause a lot of issues for them. Essentially I’m being told I have no choice in taking an unsafe vaccine. I was borderline on getting the second AZ, but will not now. I’ll start Pfizer/Moderna/JJ instead when it rolls around.

caveat emptor

prunudo wrote: »

Was anything of interest said at the briefing?

I'm really not sure. They laid out the reasoning behind the move to stop AZ for under 60s. Seemed to make sense.

I'd wait until someone with more knowledge summarises it. Slightly confusing.

podgeandrodge

Halfdane

At what point does the first dose start to become ineffective? At first there was a four week gap between shots, then 12, now 16. Surely that could have negative effects on the overall efficacy of the vaccine? I’ve seen no data related to a 16 week wait and efficacy figures.

caveat emptor

Two very rare events being compared in young people vs one very rare event compared to one less rare event in older people.

Looks to be a good call but I've no clue. Wish I did. The stat in older age group over 60 being 80 X more likely to succumb to covid vs the clotting is fairly clear.

WoollyRedHat

prunudo wrote: »

Was anything of interest said at the briefing?

Cross-posting from Vaccine thread:

From watching the conference it seems there may be provision for those under 60 to take AZ vaccine still, once they accept the risk as outlined to them individually, relative to their age group, that was my interpretation anyway. Presumably a waiver like that of which was previously alluded to in this thread would have to be devised in such an eventuality.

They also stated this decision was being made out of abundance of caution and is tied in to the current epidemiological situation i.e. if rates of Covid were higher, they would have in all likelihood have gone lower in terms of age recommendation to take AZ vaccine, weighing up the current risk of getting Covid relative to the age groups and risk of this rare severe adverse reaction to taking AZ vaccine and working off the relative data available to them currently


ETA: first point may only happen in a situation where there is a shortage of other vaccines and a surplus of the AZ one, with risks of taking this for under 60 age cohort made clear on individual level depending on their age range.

caveat emptor

They also made the point that there are other severe outcomes from the disease not including death which may make the low risk of the clotting event worth it in the younger group. Very confusing. Would be great to get a plain English explanation.

Ronan Glynn on CB now explaining.

alentejo

The AZ decision will push back any kind of normal Summer in Ireland this year. Young people have a longer queue to get a vaccine.

Jim_Hodge

alentejo wrote: »

The AZ decision will push back any kind of normal Summer in Ireland this year. Young people have a longer queue to get a vaccine.

Wait and see. There'll be sufficient Pfizer, Moderna etc to make SFA of a difference in the timeline,

Jim_Hodge

caveat emptor wrote: »

They also made the point that there are other severe outcomes from the disease not including death which may make the low risk of the clotting event worth it in the younger group...

Any chance you could make all those pictures a bit smaller???????:)

landofthetree

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

Wait and see. There'll be sufficient Pfizer, Moderna etc to make SFA of a difference in the timeline,

I've thought for a while that **** all will open here till July at the earliest in terms of hospitality. Now I'm thinking it could be August as we are at least 4 months behind the UK and they are only starting to open up.

daydorunrun

alentejo wrote: »

The AZ decision will push back any kind of normal Summer in Ireland this year. Young people have a longer queue to get a vaccine.

Could we open pop up vaccination centres instead of pop up testing centres and allow people to take the AZ vaccine if they sign a waiver and weigh up the risks themselves?

Goldengirl

caveat emptor wrote: »

They also made the point that there are other severe outcomes from the disease not including death which may make the low risk of the clotting event worth it in the younger group. Very confusing. Would be great to get a plain English explanation.

Ronan Glynn on CB now explaining.

Risk of severe disease and death are lower in the younger age groups but can be higher for those younger with certain high risk conditions , so that would be taken into account if necessary .
However it looks like nobody bar those already vaccinated with their first dose will be offered AZ in the under 60 age groups, high risk or low risk , unless they run out of vaccines , and hopefully that won't happen.

Goldengirl

RedPaddyX wrote: »

Listening to David McWilliams podcast earlier - some very interesting stats, eg

- Ireland has lowest old people demographic in Europe, ie our vulnerable pop is way lower
- we spend the most per head of population on our health service. Yet still have by far lowest number of ICU beds per pop.
- we have locked down for longer than nearly every other country (231days vs 41days in Denmark for example)

In other words our handling of this has been a disaster/poor. And our health service is grossly mismanaged. And we’ve also destroyed - continue to even further destroy our economy.

https://overcast.fm/+SE4yimgo0

The first and last point of the three predated the pandemic.
The middle one re lockdown is valid .
One would expect an economist to be concerned about the economy , as one would expect public health to be concerned about infected cases .
No surprise David McWilliams has something to say .

caveat emptor

Few cans on the beach the way to go according to CB. Watch out for the airflow though. Not being downwind of someone is age old advice.:pac:

lawred2

Discussion on Claire Byrne is a rerun from April 2020 right?

lawred2

Jesus this show exists in a parallel universe.

Sobit1964

podgeandrodge wrote: »

France said under 55s who received a first injection of the AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine should be given a jab from a different producer for their second dose, a ruling affecting more than 500,000 people

Is this how vaccines work? Is there any grounds to suggest that this works?

This mixing of different vaccines increases my hesitancy ten fold, is it now a pick and mix at the cinema?.

WoollyRedHat

Sobit1964 wrote: »

Is this how vaccines work? Is there any grounds to suggest that this works?

This mixing of different vaccines increases my hesitancy ten fold, is it now a pick and mix at the cinema?.

No what France are doing has not been sanctioned, they are taking a risk from what I can see.