Covid 19 Part XXXIV-249,437 ROI(4,906 deaths) 120,195 NI (2,145 deaths)(01/05)Read OP

Cork2021

NIAC and NPHET are utterly conservative and use the abundance of caution as a stick to beat us with!
We’re into our 14th month of this and the light at this supposed tunnel is getting darker by the day!!

seamus

marno21 wrote: »

I was driving yesterday morning. I started the journey with the news from Liverpool. Excited people in the pub, relieved hairdresser, relieved staff at Chester Zoo. Followed by really positive Luke O’Neill. Then I flicked to Radio 1 where Sam McConkey was telling us that we won’t have crowds at events for 3-5 years.

Time will tell how this goes.

What I saw were videos of streets and pubs jammed with people who were mostly unvaccinated; be that completely or partially.

One might say it's morale-boosting, but it's also a massive gamble. They've heralded in the unofficial restart of the highest-risk activities (house parties), at a time when the majority of the population are not yet vaccinated.

Morale won't be so high if they're back to 10,000 cases a day in 4 weeks time.

timmyntc

seamus wrote: »

Time will tell how this goes.

What I saw were videos of streets and pubs jammed with people who were mostly unvaccinated; be that completely or partially.

One might say it's morale-boosting, but it's also a massive gamble. They've heralded in the unofficial restart of the highest-risk activities (house parties), at a time when the majority of the population are not yet vaccinated.

Morale won't be so high if they're back to 10,000 cases a day in 4 weeks time.

The UK have taken the grown up approach of acknowledging cases will increase, people will continue to die but vaccination effect should stop hospitals from being overwhelmed and life will go on.

mloc123

seamus wrote: »

Time will tell how this goes.

What I saw were videos of streets and pubs jammed with people who were mostly unvaccinated; be that completely or partially.

One might say it's morale-boosting, but it's also a massive gamble. They've heralded in the unofficial restart of the highest-risk activities (house parties), at a time when the majority of the population are not yet vaccinated.

Morale won't be so high if they're back to 10,000 cases a day in 4 weeks time.

Their vaccine rollout also seems to be slowing/levelling out?

marno21

seamus wrote: »

Time will tell how this goes.

What I saw were videos of streets and pubs jammed with people who were mostly unvaccinated; be that completely or partially.

One might say it's morale-boosting, but it's also a massive gamble. They've heralded in the unofficial restart of the highest-risk activities (house parties), at a time when the majority of the population are not yet vaccinated.

Morale won't be so high if they're back to 10,000 cases a day in 4 weeks time.

They seem to be willing to accept 10,000 cases per day though with the level of vaccination they have. Cases will rise as they open up but if the vaccines reduce transmission and significantly reduce hospitalisations/ICU/deaths I don’t see any issues.

Wall to wall ads on the radio encouraging people to meet outdoors. Outdoor pints. Outdoor gatherings. Anything indoors with a mask on. The reopening they’ve done should be fairly safe if people stick to the rules.

Lumen

mloc123 wrote: »

Their vaccine rollout also seems to be slowing/levelling out?

That's largely a function of second doses. Look at the rate of doses administered.

mloc123

Lumen wrote: »

That's largely a function of second doses. Look at the rate of doses administered.

It will be interesting to see how the 12 week plan levels out in the end, all the talk about how quickly they are handling roll out etc... if this is the start of second doses it seems like their overall progress will look much slower for the next 3 months?

seamus

marno21 wrote: »

They seem to be willing to accept 10,000 cases per day though with the level of vaccination they have. Cases will rise as they open up but if the vaccines reduce transmission and significantly reduce hospitalisations/ICU/deaths I don’t see any issues.

10,000 cases is a bad number, but it's just the start.

Problem is when you get to 25k+ cases/day then your fatalities start ratcheting up anyway; in younger people.

Yes, the goal is protect the most vulnerable, but when you get into huge numbers of infected, a small chance of death turns into a lot of actual deaths.

It's a gamble. Their easing of restrictions has a considerable amount of finger-crossing going on, not solid data. Less than 50% of the population has received one dose and only 11% are fully vaccinated.

daydorunrun

We really need to start working towards an opt in system for vaccine roll out where people can decide personally if the risk of infection is worse than the risk of complication. No point in warehousing vaccine at this point.

I heard a doctor on the radio today saying NIAC changed the guidance on AZ because of a significant risk of complication. Later in the same conversation they listed numbers- one in a million can cause death due to clotting! How 1/1,000,000 significant when the rest of the non covid testing and treatment in out hospital for things like cancer are partially shut down and possibly missing hundred and thousands of early detection which WILL save lives. It is scandalous.

The Covid Tribunal will go on for many years when it gets to the courts.

KrustyUCC

"Dr McCauley told RTÉ's Today with Claire Byrne it was likely that between 200,000 to 400,000 AstraZeneca vaccines out of a total supply of 3.9 million would go unused as a result of the decision."

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0413/1209594-astrazeneca-reaction/

200,000 to 400,000 doses is 100,000 - 200,000 fully vaccinated people

We cannot afford to waste that much precious vaccine over NIACs abundance of caution

That hole in vaccination program will result in longer restrictions too

eagle eye

FFS, people going on about how low the risk is.
If they can find out specifically who is vulnerable then people will be willing to take it. Until that time you'll see lots avoid AZ.

podgeandrodge

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Yes J&J is the real joker

We need the 605,000 doses to be 605,000 fully vaccinated people

If NIAC have the same advice as AZ it's going to be a disaster

They are the same type of vaccines too aren't they? Bit offputting, despite low risk.

Charles Babbage

prunudo wrote: »

Problem is, Nphet don't seem to appreciate this. They have shifted their approach from dealing with the current situation to what may or not happen in the future. We are in a far better place than we were in early February or March yet given the positive circumstances they are painfully slow at opening up businesses and society.
Hospital numbers are on a constant decline and vaccinations albeit slowly are rising yet both nphet, niac and the government seem to be blinded by fear with a glacial pace of reopening and even more conservative than last year.

I don't see any point in having a big surge of cases now, with unpredictable effects. We will get out of this because of the vaccines and a slow and steady approach which does not have to be reversed makes a lot of sense.

Professor Moriarty

seamus wrote: »

These stats vary considerably depending on age and gender.

And at the end of the day, this isn't a long-haul flight, it's a vaccine which is being supplied in the context of something that is necessary for everyone to take.

If we were saying that everyone in the country was being asked to make two long-haul flights this year in order to end the pandemic, then the issue of DVT would indeed come up.

As it happens, gender is now being questioned as a factor given the cohorts who were vaccinated first. My point about the long haul flight is simply to show how rare a blood clotting event is when taking a vaccine. Similar examples could be made with contraceptive pills.

KrustyUCC

KrustyUCC wrote: »

"Dr McCauley told RTÉ's Today with Claire Byrne it was likely that between 200,000 to 400,000 AstraZeneca vaccines out of a total supply of 3.9 million would go unused as a result of the decision."

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0413/1209594-astrazeneca-reaction/

200,000 to 400,000 doses is 100,000 - 200,000 fully vaccinated people

We cannot afford to waste that much precious vaccine over NIACs abundance of caution

That hole in vaccination program will result in longer restrictions too

Probably 1-2 weeks Pfizer supply in Q3.

Professor Moriarty

KrustyUCC wrote: »

"Dr McCauley told RTÉ's Today with Claire Byrne it was likely that between 200,000 to 400,000 AstraZeneca vaccines out of a total supply of 3.9 million would go unused as a result of the decision."

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0413/1209594-astrazeneca-reaction/

200,000 to 400,000 doses is 100,000 - 200,000 fully vaccinated people

We cannot afford to waste that much precious vaccine over NIACs abundance of caution

That hole in vaccination program will result in longer restrictions too

Perhaps they should offer those AZ vaccines to anyone who wants to take a chance with blood clotting. I'd take it if offered.

KrustyUCC

podgeandrodge wrote: »

They are the same type of vaccines too aren't they? Bit offputting, despite low risk.

Yes that's the worry with J&J

Was listening to RTE radio yesterday

If J&J runs into same issues and gets same NIAC advice as AZ then that's 35% of total Q2 doses restricted to a 10 Yr cohort from 60-69

caveat emptor

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Yes that's the worry with J&J

Was listening to RTE radio yesterday

If J&J runs into same issues and gets same NIAC advice as AZ then that's 35% of total Q2 doses restricted to a 10 Yr cohort from 60-69

US is now pausing it FFS.

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1381926749597020161?s=20

caveat emptor

caveat emptor wrote: »

US is now pausing it FFS.

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1381926749597020161?s=20

Meanwhile UK opens up vaccinations to all over 45s - moderna and AZ.

Vicxas

caveat emptor wrote: »

US is now pausing it FFS.

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1381926749597020161?s=20

Well, thats that then. See you all in 2022

seamus

Maybe we should trade with the UK then. They take our AZ in exchange for giving us their Pfizer on a 1.5:1 basis.

mloc123

Deleted User wrote: »

Meanwhile UK opens up vaccinations to all over 45s - moderna and AZ.

Is this is a good thing?

Surely if there are risks reported with a vaccine, it is good practice to pause while they are investigated fully.

stephenjmcd

caveat emptor wrote: »

US is now pausing it FFS.

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1381926749597020161?s=20

Up to each state what they want to do.

The CDC review is tomorrow, expect it to be short lived to be honest.

Based on the events seen so far in the doses given the likelihood of such events here given the number of J&J expected would be quite frankly negligible. Certainly looks like a lower risk than AZ to start with.

Let's see where it goes, EMA have been looking at it since last week. It's 1 shot, I highly doubt it gets restricted because of that

landofthetree

Summer 2021 is gone.

caveat emptor

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Up to each state what they want to do.

The CDC review is tomorrow, expect it to be short lived to be honest.

Based on the events seen so far in the doses given the likelihood of such events here given the number of J&J expected would be quite frankly negligible. Certainly looks like a lower risk than AZ to start with.

Let's see where it goes, EMA have been looking at it since last week. It's 1 shot, I highly doubt it gets restricted because of that

Yeah hopefully. It really is "an abundance of caution" so they may well declare the tiny risk worth it overall. It's like the opposite of winning the lottery in terms of probability.

Professor Moriarty

landofthetree wrote: »

Summer 2021 is gone.

That's awful for you. Beautiful day here. Think I'll drive to the beach for a walk.

Chris_5339762

mloc123 wrote: »

Is this is a good thing?

Surely if there are risks reported with a vaccine, it is good practice to pause while they are investigated fully.

Yes and no. Its a balance of risks. It seems as if this clot issue does exist, but at such a low level that the damage caused by COVID in the weeks that this delays things, is higher than just allowing the odd clot to happen as a known, justifiable side effect.

landofthetree

Deleted User wrote: »

Probably 1-2 weeks Pfizer supply in Q3.

Very optimistic to think that will hapoen.

podgeandrodge

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

Yes and no. Its a balance of risks. It seems as if this clot issue does exist, but at such a low level that the damage caused by COVID in the weeks that this delays things, is higher than just allowing the odd clot to happen as a known, justifiable side effect.

Agreed. But it doesn't look like they are approaching this from a "save thousands of lives, cause small number of deaths" logic. Rather, that the small number of deaths be prevented, even if that reduces lives saved.

bucketybuck

marno21 wrote: »

Wall to wall ads on the radio encouraging people to meet outdoors. Outdoor pints. Outdoor gatherings. Anything indoors with a mask on. The reopening they’ve done should be fairly safe if people stick to the rules.

Over here we have TV ads shaming people for the heinous crime of being friendly to somebody in the work canteen, or giving a lift to an old woman with shopping. Images of empty canteens interposed with images of people in ICU beds.

It is a ****ing disgrace what the media is doing in this country, which I guess makes them a good match to the governing bodies.

seamus wrote: »

Maybe we should trade with the UK then. They take our AZ in exchange for giving us their Pfizer on a 1.5:1 basis.

That would involve Michael Martin actually getting off his arse and doing something proactive.