Covid 19 Part XXXIV-249,437 ROI(4,906 deaths) 120,195 NI (2,145 deaths)(01/05)Read OP

kleiner feigling

Lumen wrote: »

Ah, gotcha. More like 200k, since post-infection immunity only lasts about six months.

Although there are another cohort of people who've been infected but haven't been a confirmed case. Dunno what level of immunity they have though.

It'll be interesting to see how immunity holds up over time (natural and vaccine-induced).
Its scary to think that the vulnerable who've been vaccinated recently might not have great protection come winter.
Much like the flu, I think we'll have to get used to covid being a normal part of life that we manage with an annual vaccination program for those who need the protection.

Charles Babbage

CoronaBlocker wrote: »

Most of us were never at risk at all.

Most were never at risk of death.
Long Covid is a significant cause of chronic illness and one third of people who get Covid have some psychiatric and neurological effects.

Large numbers of cases would mean significant illness in the population even if nobody died.

None if this is necessary if people will just stall the ball for few weeks until the vaccinations are completed.

cameramonkey

Lumen wrote: »

Ah, gotcha. More like 200k, since post-infection immunity only lasts about six months.

Although there are another cohort of people who've been infected but haven't been a confirmed case. Dunno what level of immunity they have though.

Post-infection anti-bodies may last six months but post infection immunity is a different thing. In the Singapore sars covid 1 reactive T cells were found in SARS patients 17 years after infection.

I think there was three times the amount of infection in the general population compared to those that actually were reported as testing positive when a wider cohort was tested. Those tests were done in the first wave in Dublin and Sligo.

In parts of Dublin in the covid walk-in test centers around 6% were testing positive.

Eod100

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1382303376159997952

Herb Powell

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Most were never at risk of death.
Long Covid is a significant cause of chronic illness and one third of people who get Covid have some psychiatric and neurological effects.

Large numbers of cases would mean significant illness in the population even if nobody died.

None if this is necessary if people will just stall the ball for few weeks until the vaccinations are completed.

Really not as simple as that now is it? It's been just a few weeks for how long now? To be clear I'm not hopping on the "open it all up" bandwagon and I know full well the situation is unfortunately precarious, but that just feels like cheapening people's experience of how tough this is to maintain. As if it's a fuccking moral failing en masse or something

caveat emptor

caveat emptor wrote: »

Despite the low levels of the South African variant in UK it's growing quite quickly. We might get a lot more data on how effective AZ vaccine is against it given the number of people innoculated there with that vaccine. South African cancelled their order of AZ and didn't use the doses they had based on clinical trial data that showed it didn't stop mild or moderate in a youngish trial participants. No evidence on hospitalisations or death as didn't occur in either arm of trial. ]

Not really. B.1.351 has been pretty stable in the UK for a quite a while now.



According to SAGE most of the cases are linked with travel. There doesn't seem to be significant growth in the community.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/977097/S1179_SAGE_85_Meeting.pdf

Looking at Europe you can see over half of all cases of B.1.351 and P.1 are in France and Turkey. Even so they're either stable or declining across the continent. That doesn't say that won't change in future but as it stands neither variant seems to be gaining ground.

https://twitter.com/EvilDoctorK/status/1380551074218643456?s=20

Vicxas

Eod100 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1382303376159997952

Pfizer to the rescue again!

prunudo

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Most were never at risk of death.
Long Covid is a significant cause of chronic illness and one third of people who get Covid have some psychiatric and neurological effects.

Large numbers of cases would mean significant illness in the population even if nobody died.

None if this is necessary if people will just stall the ball for few weeks until the vaccinations are completed.

Can you bottle some of that optimism that you have and share it around to the rest of us please.

TheDoctor

seamus wrote: »

In other news, the official number of people in hospital this morning is 192.

This is a phenomenal number.

Why? Because hospital numbers have only been lower than 192, once in the last six months.

And this number will continue dropping this week.

Last nights 187 was the lowest 8pm figure since 9th October

caveat emptor

Hardyn wrote: »

Not really. B.1.351 has been pretty stable in the UK for a quite a while now.



According to SAGE most of the cases are linked with travel. There doesn't seem to be significant growth in the community.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/977097/S1179_SAGE_85_Meeting.pdf

Looking at Europe you can see over half of all cases of B.1.351 and P.1 are in France and Turkey. Even so they're either stable or declining across the continent. That doesn't say that won't change in future but as it stands neither variant seems to be gaining ground in Europe.
https://twitter.com/EvilDoctorK/status/1380551074218643456?s=20

Sure that makes sense. Numbers are low also. They were stable under restrictions but will be one to watch as they are open now albeit in a limited way.

Non pharmaceutical intervention are being lifted now so we will find out I guess. The assumption is the vaccines will prevent spread. If their major vaccine doesn't prevent spread of this variant it will quickly become dominant.

I take your point though.

Charles Babbage

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Most were never at risk of death.
Long Covid is a significant cause of chronic illness and one third of people who get Covid have some psychiatric and neurological effects.

Large numbers of cases would mean significant illness in the population even if nobody died.

None if this is necessary if people will just stall the ball for few weeks until the vaccinations are completed.

Sounds like goalposts shifting. So now it’s not just about deaths and avoiding hospitals getting overwhelmed... we need to stop sickness.

Do you have any source to back up that large numbers of the population would be significantly sick without dying? Everyone I know that caught Covid recovered very quickly. And I know of a few clusters.

Also, it’s really not a few weeks is it? It’s a few months added onto the last year.

Multipass

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Most were never at risk of death.
Long Covid is a significant cause of chronic illness and one third of people who get Covid have some psychiatric and neurological effects.

Large numbers of cases would mean significant illness in the population even if nobody died.

None if this is necessary if people will just stall the ball for few weeks until the vaccinations are completed.

Overkill to wait until vaccinations are completed. Once the elderly and truly vulnerable are done, which surely has to be soon at this rate, we need to get cracking on undoing the incredible self harm we’ve inflicted. Psychiatric effects of covid can get in the queue behind the psychiatric effects of a year in lockdown.

h2005

seamus wrote: »

In other news, the official number of people in hospital this morning is 192.

This is a phenomenal number.

Why? Because hospital numbers have only been lower than 192, once in the last six months.

And this number will continue dropping this week.

Is there a way to see total hospital numbers (not just Covid). It would be interesting to see what the numbers were in 2019 for today.

Hellrazer

Charles Babbage wrote: »

None if this is necessary if people will just stall the ball for few weeks until the vaccinations are completed.

Jesus youre being very optimistic if you think it will be a few "weeks" before the vaccinations are completed - we`ll be luck if theyre completed in 2021 at all.

External Association

I think it would be a good idea to close down all Covid threads for a week and see how it went.

It might be useful in helping a very small percentage of the population forget about it for a while and begin adaptation to a post Covid world.

It has become an obsession. Practically every angle done to death. Wash your hands, social distance, do the right things but mentally move on to progress something else in your life.

The litany of posters banned from here. It's a thread of one upmanship, tension and negativity. If anyone says well what are you doing here, it's my second post here.

External Association

External Association wrote: »

I think it would be a good idea to close down all Covid threads for a week and see how it went.

It might be useful in helping a very small percentage of the population forget about it for a while and begin adaptation to a post Covid world.

It has become an obsession. Practically every angle done to death. Wash your hands, social distance, do the right things but mentally move on to progress something else in your life.

The litany of posters banned from here. It's a thread of one upmanship, tension and negativity. If anyone says well what are you doing here, it's my second post here.

Thanks for the laugh, brightened up my day no end. If you find these threads contrary to your liking, there are other fora on this site to frequent. Just a thought, mind.

Lumen

cameramonkey wrote: »

Post-infection anti-bodies may last six months but post infection immunity is a different thing. In the Singapore sars covid 1 reactive T cells were found in SARS patients 17 years after infection.

I think there was three times the amount of infection in the general population compared to those that actually were reported as testing positive when a wider cohort was tested. Those tests were done in the first wave in Dublin and Sligo.

In parts of Dublin in the covid walk-in test centers around 6% were testing positive.

I wrote immunity and I meant immunity :pac:

There was a study done of COVID reinfections. The median period between infections was about six months.

Stats is hard so it's not necessarily the case that median reinfection period = average immunity period but it'll do for boards.

OwenM

Faugheen wrote: »

It’s not the first time I’ve had to explain why the R-number is nearly always in that 0.6-1 area as a minimum and once again the poster doesn’t like it and just says I’m chatting sh*te.

An R value range like that has no practical or theoretical value or utility of any kind, such a broad range is simply a failure and an admission that they don't know if cases will be stable or fall quickly - and you think that's a defensible position from a nation states epidemiological modelling group established to advise a health service and a government during a pandemic? If the level of uncertainty is that high this pandemic might actually be finished for all we know.

Derek Zoolander

Lumen wrote: »

I wrote immunity and I meant immunity :pac:

There was a study done of COVID reinfections. The median period between infections was about six months.

Stats is hard so it's not necessarily the case that median reinfection period = average immunity period but it'll do for boards.

do you have a link to that study

below study shows lack of reinfection but again only for six months as that was the timeline but there should be studies for a longer timeline by now

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/04/previous-covid-19-may-cut-risk-reinfection-84

External Association

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Thanks for the laugh, brightened up my day no end. If you find these threads contrary to your liking, there are other fora on this site to frequent. Just a thought, mind.

I enjoy laughing at your posts too Bertie. Regardless of the thread you like to get in first. Someday you'll say something funny, by accident

P.s. If that brightened up your day I hope tomorrow is better

OwenM

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Most were never at risk of death.
Long Covid is a significant cause of chronic illness and one third of people who get Covid have some psychiatric and neurological effects.

Large numbers of cases would mean significant illness in the population even if nobody died.

None if this is necessary if people will just stall the ball for few weeks until the vaccinations are completed.

Have you a source for that please, I'm not aware of any quantitative studies nd most people are quoting media articles which are in turn taken from random quotes from 'experts in the field' or propaganda from Zerocovid nutjobs.

MrMusician18

External Association wrote: »

I think it would be a good idea to close down all Covid threads for a week and see how it went.

It might be useful in helping a very small percentage of the population forget about it for a while and begin adaptation to a post Covid world.

It has become an obsession. Practically every angle done to death. Wash your hands, social distance, do the right things but mentally move on to progress something else in your life.

The litany of posters banned from here. It's a thread of one upmanship, tension and negativity. If anyone says well what are you doing here, it's my second post here.

Posters banned, lol. They're all back with shiny new accounts, some with several new accounts.

Lumen

Derek Zoolander wrote: »

do you have a link to that study

below study shows lack of reinfection but again only for six months as that was the timeline but there should be studies for a longer timeline by now

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/04/previous-covid-19-may-cut-risk-reinfection-84

Unfortunately I can't find it.

However, here's a HIQA report that covers many studies, last updated on 5 March 2021.

https://www.hiqa.ie/sites/default/files/2021-03/Duration-of-protective-immunity_Evidence-Summary.pdf

External Association

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Posters banned, lol. They're all back with shiny new accounts, some with several new accounts.

Never!

It's indicative of the tension on here.

Charles Babbage

Hellrazer wrote: »

Jesus youre being very optimistic if you think it will be a few "weeks" before the vaccinations are completed - we`ll be luck if theyre completed in 2021 at all.

there will likely be children unvaccinated at the end of 2021 and perhaps I should have said first vaccination rather than second. But with the news today that Ireland is getting another 5500,000 Pfizer vaccines in Q2 then all adults will be vaccinated in the summer, unless they themselves avoid it.

And I am not saying do not ease restrictions, I am saying do not throw open the floodgates.

Faugheen

OwenM wrote: »

An R value range like that has no practical or theoretical value or utility of any kind, such a broad range is simply a failure and an admission that they don't know if cases will be stable or fall quickly - and you think that's a defensible position from a nation states epidemiological modelling group established to advise a health service and a government during a pandemic? If the level of uncertainty is that high this pandemic might actually be finished for all we know.

Because the R-number is at that particular moment in time, and it's used to project would happen if it is at certain points into the future.

Again, an R of 0.5 would mean, if it stays that way, that new cases will project to be cut in half. An R of 1.1 would mean they'll go up slightly.

This is compiled by many people, not just Philip Nolan. Should we just do away with it altogether? What does that achieve?

Regardless, the point you made that my post was 'nonsense' doesn't hold up, because you have no basis for it other than you don't trust it, with no alternative provided despite being asked.

timmyntc

Faugheen wrote: »

Because the R-number is at that particular moment in time, and it's used to project would happen if it is at certain points into the future.

Again, an R of 0.5 would mean, if it stays that way, that new cases will project to be cut in half. An R of 1.1 would mean they'll go up slightly.

This is compiled by many people, not just Philip Nolan. Should we just do away with it altogether? What does that achieve?

Regardless, the point you made that my post was 'nonsense' doesn't hold up, because you have no basis for it other than you don't trust it, with no alternative provided despite being asked.

An R number with a range as large as that is effectively useless.

A range of 0.5 to 1.0 would mean we are either suppressing the virus, or we are not. Its totally inconclusive and is basically a cop-out by Nolan et al - afraid to commit to one number so they give a broad range which means they are always "right", but the data they present is of no use to anyone.

External Association

All now eagerly awaiting the swab numbers. Who'll get in first with the eagerly anticipated stats.

And could someone 'pull off' the double? Stats and cases in one day.. Hasn't been done in over 3 mts.

MrMusician18

External Association wrote: »

All now eagerly awaiting the swab numbers. Who'll get in first with the eagerly anticipated stats.

And could someone 'pull off' the double? Stats and cases in one day.. Hasn't been done in over 3 mts.

That's quite a bit of research for a throwaway line in a post from a poster that's only been here a month.

Derek Zoolander

Lumen wrote: »

Unfortunately I can't find it.

However, here's a HIQA report that covers many studies, last updated on 5 March 2021.

https://www.hiqa.ie/sites/default/files/2021-03/Duration-of-protective-immunity_Evidence-Summary.pdf

one thing to note on those studies is that they don't preclude a longer period of immunity - they just were run for a 6 month period - in fact the HIQA summary calls this out - so we cannot preclude a longer lasting immunity.

The applicability of included studies may be limited due the completion of all
studies before December 2020, preceding the widespread identification and
spread of a number of new variants of international concern since December
2020 and preceding vaccine roll-out. Thus, the applicability of the findings to
recent variants of concern and vaccinated populations is unknown. Separately,
as all studies provided estimates in the general population or HCWs, it is
unclear how generalisable the findings are to other populations such as the
elderly, those with comorbidities and immunocompromised individuals.