Covid 19 Part XXXIV-249,437 ROI(4,906 deaths) 120,195 NI (2,145 deaths)(01/05)Read OP

landofthetree

https://twitter.com/RiochtConor2/status/1382381436590813186

saabsaab

We expect the vaccines roll out to control this (unless there is a new variant) this Summer.

PTH2009

saabsaab wrote: »

We expect the vaccines roll out to control this (unless there is a new variant) this Summer.

That bloody word

funnydoggy

First indication of things going well for months and it's marred by talks of things that may never happen. Variants are in their thousands at this stage. Let us have a bit of room to breathe.

Not saying it's you either saabsaab, not singling you out. Just that I've heard that variant point made a few times already today.

saabsaab

funnydoggy wrote: »

First indication of things going well for months and it's marred by talks of things that may never happen. Variants are in their thousands at this stage. Let us have a bit of room to breathe.

Not saying it's you either saabsaab, not singling you out. Just that I've heard that variant point made a few times already today.

Doesn't mean it isn't a factor either. I hope it never happens but beast wait till the end of the roll out before relaxing too much remember Christmas.

adam240610

Can we ban the words; variant, lockdown, and concerning when we're out of this, please?

funnydoggy

saabsaab wrote: »

Doesn't mean it isn't a factor either. I hope it never happens but beast wait till the end of the roll out before relaxing too much remember Christmas.

I do remember Christmas. We're nowhere near that type of scenario

redmgar

External Association wrote: »

All now eagerly awaiting the swab numbers. Who'll get in first with the eagerly anticipated stats.

And could someone 'pull off' the double? Stats and cases in one day.. Hasn't been done in over 3 mts.

Life goals, could you imagine being that legend.

adam240610

adam240610 wrote: »

Can we ban the words; variant, lockdown, and concerning when we're out of this, please?

Add phraseology like 'new normal', 'exercise caution' and 'second quarter' to the manure pile.

We need a reality check.

Variants are variations of an existing virus.

And as such, there is a limited number of variations - but effectively an unlimited number of ways our existing vaccines can be modified to account for said variations.

At this stage, we are ahead of the virus - no matter how hard it mutates.

It can never mutate into anything other than a version of itself; that's the one weakness that vaccines, and modifications thereof, can capitalize on.

It's the virus in retreat, not us.

People talk about variations as if they can somehow bring us back to March 1, 2020. At that stage, I think all logical perspective has been lost.

The vaccine cavalry is on the horizon this Autumn. Until then, existing vaccines are more than sufficient to do the job required.

Again, we need less doom and gloom and far more optimism.

TheDoctor

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Add phraseology like 'new normal', 'exercise caution' and 'second quarter' to the manure pile.

Wet pubs needs to go too

namloc1980

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Add phraseology like 'new normal', 'exercise caution' and 'second quarter' to the manure pile.

Hold firm, wet pubs and abundance of caution can get fooked as well.

saabsaab

funnydoggy wrote: »

I do remember Christmas. We're nowhere near that type of scenario

Few thought that we were then either!

robbiezero

political analyst wrote: »

This article was published last month.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/retail-and-services/explainer-what-is-going-on-with-click-and-collect-services-1.4518019

Beggars belief that this restriction is still in operation.

Lumen

Around Christmas we went from 400 to 6,000 cases a day in about three weeks, and it took three months to get the numbers down again.

There's nothing particularly in our current situation that would prevent that reoccuring, if we rolled back the restrictions to what they were in December. Sure the weather's a bit nicer, but it's hardly a solid 15C and sunny.

Hungary has three times our vaccination rate and yet is just coming out of an incredibly bad wave, with a solid 250 deaths a day for the last couple of weeks (their population is only double ours).

I'm not advocating for any particular course of action, I just think that people demanding a complete relaxation of restrictions (the open the pubs/let it rip crowd) should consider that the likely result would be a couple of weeks of relative normality followed by several months more lockdown, whereas if we ease more gradually we should avoid the kind of spike that will put us back to square one.

Bags o cans until June.

funnydoggy

robbiezero wrote: »

Beggars belief that this restriction is still in operation.

It's a really stupid one. The most dangerous thing about click and collect would probably be fomites, which we know is not a typical driver of transmission for COVID. This and a 5k limit, seriously stupid restrictions

minitrue

funnydoggy wrote: »

I do remember Christmas. We're nowhere near that type of scenario

December 1st:
7-day cases average: 266
Cases in hospital: 224
Cases in ICU: 31
7-day average deaths*: 6

Yesterday (I'm too lazy to work out the 7-day averages for today):
7-day cases average: 397
Cases in hospital: 206
Cases in ICU: 48
7-day average deaths*: 11

To say we are "nowhere near" is flat out wrong. The vaccination situation certainly means the same case number now wouldn't be as bad but is it enough to mean about 50% higher now is "nowhere near"? I think not. Maybe 397 now is better than 266 was then but it's not a slam dunk.

The cases in hospital are "close enough" and something that the vaccination situation argument does not help mitigate at all.

The ICU figure is probably the real headline and again it's roughly 50% higher.

The deaths are nearly double, see the * at the end before you start arguing but no matter how you spin it they aren't "nowhere near" now where we were then.

Now we move onto the trends. The cases were trending down on 1st December at a comparable enough rate to how they are now. The hospital numbers similarly were trending down at a reasonably comparable rate. The ICU numbers now are falling faster than they were at the start of December (from a much higher peak and still at a 50% higher level). The deaths average on both dates is relatively static.

All in all the picture is perhaps similar enough. Pick your figure to suit your argument and you can claim it's better or worse but to say "nowhere near" is hyperbole and wishful thinking.

If we pulled a December manoeuvrer now and opened up similarly we might not get to the same levels as quickly thanks to the impact of the vaccinated but we would crash the health service again fast enough.

* The 7-day average death (and cases) figures are from worldometers and no doubt skewed by the reporting dates but that was also the case back at the start of December (October/November deaths coming in). The figures now may be more heavily skewed but with the difference in levels it's certainly not enough to justify "nowhere near".

podgeandrodge

caveat emptor wrote: »

Yeah I hope they can figure out if there is a common denominator among those who get this clotting. It's quite rare at a population level but the risk could be high for people of a certain demographic which could be excluded from astrazenica vaccine. That would allow the rollout to continue once understood.

Really good article here on how it was discovered.

https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1382257198433247239?s=20

Is it fair to say that, as a result of that doctor "discovering" the link with the clots, the vaccine is less used, so a greater number of deaths might now occur, though from Covid and not from that vaccine?

podgeandrodge

NPHET were reasonable during the week in acknowledging that outdoors is pretty damn safe.

So why are they not allowing small groups eat and drink outside?

Multipass

robbiezero wrote: »

Beggars belief that this restriction is still in operation.

It makes no sense at all, I get so annoyed by it. Its like the government wants to destroy small business and line the pockets of the supermarket chains. Most supermarkets look more like department stores now with all the extra stuff moved in, they’re making a killing.

hmmm

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Is it fair to say that, as a result of that doctor "discovering" the link with the clots, the vaccine is less used, so a greater number of deaths might now occur, though from Covid and not from that vaccine?

Yes, plus no value is being put on the impacts of lockdown.

So you might have 1 death in a million for a vaccine, and as a consequence the vaccine is not used. Meanwhile we have people dying of Covid who could have had the vaccine, and lockdown drags on for a few more weeks with 25% unemployed.

Unfortunately the regulators will get sued for the 1 in a million, and no-one cares about the other costs. That's why in my opinion finding some way to offer a waiver/informed consent for those of us who think this is absolute bull**** and could we get on with vaccinating would be good thing.

PTH2009

podgeandrodge wrote: »

NPHET were reasonable during the week in acknowledging that outdoors is pretty damn safe.

So why are they not allowing small groups eat and drink outside?

Alcohol is the reason they won't let it go ahead imo

Was listening to a podcast on Spotify (Angry bartenders Ireland) and they made a good point saying 'some other businesses like fast food places/coffee shops/vans etc can have outside dining' and why cant pubs have it to ?

hynesie08

PTH2009 wrote: »

Alcohol is the reason they won't let it go ahead imo

Was listening to a podcast on Spotify (Angry bartenders Ireland) and they made a good point saying 'some other businesses like fast food places/coffee shops/vans etc can have outside dining' and why cant pubs have it to ?

They can't though......

saabsaab

I'd say we would have outdoor pubs in May. Depending on the roll out.

TheDoctor

saabsaab wrote: »

I'd say we would have outdoor pubs in May. Depending on the roll out.

We may not

jackboy

saabsaab wrote: »

I'd say we would have outdoor pubs in May. Depending on the roll out.

In a few weeks time, not a chance. Unless they can vac half a million a week.

irishguy1983

jackboy wrote: »

In a few weeks time, not a chance. Unless they can vac half a million a week.

Agreed - not a chance...

saabsaab

jackboy wrote: »

In a few weeks time, not a chance. Unless they can vac half a million a week.

May be possible, depending on the breaks.

TheDoctor

Hospital numbers at 8pm

Total 174 (down from 189 last night)
ICU 48 (up from 47 last night - 2 deaths)

Lowest 8pm total number since 8th October - 171

Last Wednesday
Total 220
ICU 54

14th April 2020
Total 864
ICU 147

Corholio

Comparing Christmas is a bit of an off comparison imo. It's a very specific time of year where people crowded for specific reasons, buying presents, meeting people inside in heated areas, out for the atmosphere, and indeed people travelling home (just part of the factor not the biggest that some bang on about) were all factors that made it explode. It's a different time of year with very different factors, warmer weather, more likely to want to be outside, a lot of the elderly vaccinated etc.

I'm not saying open everything up, but the 'we saw what happened at Christmas' thing isn't that comparable tbh.