Covid 19 Part XXXIV-249,437 ROI(4,906 deaths) 120,195 NI (2,145 deaths)(01/05)Read OP

plastic glass

CoronaBlocker wrote: »

The entire Formula 1 paddock was offered vaccines by Bahrain (where the first race of the year takes place this weekend) - and, to the last mechanic, they all said no, saying "There is a queue and we are all much further down it - please give those jabs to those more vulnerable than us". -- Ok, I'm paraphrasing there but that was the gist of the statement.

And yet our entitled teachers in Bray probably clawed over each other to get onto the minibus going to the Beacon.

The thing that gets me is that this had to have been highly organised and they were notified to be on stand by far in advance. It is an utter disgrace and somewhat refreshing that all parties are quick to condemn.

Tyrone212

plastic glass wrote: »

Jaysus-that has to be a mistake or an anomaly! You sure he doesn’t have a connection to a CEO of a private hospital?

Nah he's common as muck. I did make a mistake though while watching TV, he's 37* not 31. His appointment is in one of the big vaccination centres not his GP office.

plastic glass

boardise wrote: »

Can we really say that though ?
We don't know how the issue was presented to them and there was a diminishing time window. For all we know some might have demurred and been told-use it or waste it.
I think it's a little unreasonable to try to apportion blame to the teachers at this remove.

There was in my arse a diminishing time window. I would think they were told in plenty of time to “be ready”. I think we have to blame them somewhat. I don’t think there should be be an out and out witch hunt but I would have no problem if papers named them. We live in a country that for better or worse there is no real repercussions for wrong doing. Maybe if these people are shamed for giving or taking the vaccine ahead of their turn others will think twice doing the same

TheDoctor

Hospital figures at 8pm

Total 304 (down from 308 last night)
ICU 66 (down from 75 last night - 4 deaths)

Last Friday
Total 329
ICU 87

gozunda

Tyrone212 wrote: »

My cousin 31 has been called for his vaccine next week. He had bad asthma as a child, not so much now. They must be getting through group 4 fast enough if he's been called.

They're not.



The first bar in each group shows the first shot- the second bar the second shot - many are still awaiting those. Cohort 4 - those 16 - 69 at very high risk have just started to be vaccinated. Apparently this is a large group.

https://covid19.shanehastings.eu/vaccines/

Jinglejangle69

Tyrone212 wrote: »

My cousin 31 has been called for his vaccine next week. He had bad asthma as a child, not so much now. They must be getting through group 4 fast enough if he's been called.

That's shocking if true.

We are making a balls of this.

Can we ever get anything right?

manofwisdom

TheDoctor wrote: »

Hospital figures at 8pm

Total 304 (down from 308 last night)
ICU 66 (down from 75 last night - 4 deaths)

Last Friday
Total 329
ICU 87

Feb 23 when it was confirmed that Ireland would remain under Level 5 restrictions until April 5th

In hospital 693
In ICU 149

retro:electro

So come here to me. We’re being told that this new variant is “more deadly” by Leo but the hospital figures aren’t showing that at all. They’re declining quite rapidly actually. We could actually have <10 in ICU in a matter of weeks. So what’s all the hysterics about

Wolf359f

retro:electro wrote: »

So come here to me. We’re being told that this new variant is “more deadly” by Leo but the hospital figures aren’t showing that at all. They’re declining quite rapidly actually. We could actually have <10 in ICU in a matter of weeks. So what’s all the hysterics about

May have something to do with the fact we're in a lockdown and currently vaccinating the most at risk?

retro:electro

Wolf359f wrote: »

May have something to do with the fact we're in a lockdown and currently vaccinating the most at risk?

But the figures are still relatively high and we’re being led to believe its rampant in the community. If the most vulnerable are being vaccinated then let’s open up as soon as possible because surely this new variant is no more deadly than all the other variants gone before it? If it was then hospital admissions would be shooting up and the opposite is happening

retro:electro

retro:electro wrote: »

So come here to me. We’re being told that this new variant is “more deadly” by Leo but the hospital figures aren’t showing that at all. They’re declining quite rapidly actually. We could actually have <10 in ICU in a matter of weeks. So what’s all the hysterics about

Government are losing the audience, and they know it. Fear factor present in January is gone, the "deadly" label is a last desperate grab at control. We held up our end of the bargain Leo, a year sacrificed is price enough and now we want to make up for lost time. Stop talking tarmac and step up the vaccination program, we're not ring-fenced sheep.

FintanMcluskey

retro:electro wrote: »

So come here to me. We’re being told that this new variant is “more deadly” by Leo but the hospital figures aren’t showing that at all. They’re declining quite rapidly actually. We could actually have <10 in ICU in a matter of weeks. So what’s all the hysterics about

The irony of course is that after vaccinating the HCW’s and many vulnerable, the anti vaccer’s aren’t who the media told us they were.

Who can seriously believe that having 500k vaccines administered won’t make a monumental difference to hospital numbers

Wolf359f

retro:electro wrote: »

But the figures are still relatively high and we’re being led to believe its rampant in the community. If the most vulnerable are being vaccinated then let’s open up as soon as possible because surely this new variant is no more deadly than all the other variants gone before it? If it was then hospital admissions would be shooting up and the opposite is happening

The fact we've been locked down so long since December and the numbers are still remaining high is the cause for concern. The reason for hospital figures slowly going down is because discharges are greater than admissions.
You could probably estimate ~500 cases a day will keep hospitals and ICU from being overrun. Probably a lot higher than 500 realistically. But that's not a justification to just open up.

With such a high starting point, it could get out of control fast, so any reopening has to be painfully slow and based on vaccination rate.
It's easy if you get cases sub 100 a day and start to open as you have a lot more time to see how it's growing and make changes (restrictions). Starting from a high starting point, the margins are super fine. In saying that, we can't be locked down indefinitely (as in no roadmap)

Turtwig

retro:electro wrote: »

So come here to me. We’re being told that this new variant is “more deadly” by Leo but the hospital figures aren’t showing that at all. They’re declining quite rapidly actually. We could actually have <10 in ICU in a matter of weeks. So what’s all the hysterics about

A peanut allergy isn't deadly until the person comes in contact with peanuts. If infections are being kept low how can you expect deaths to be high? Your consideration of the hospitalisations makes no sense in this context.

It's still an open question whether the variant is more severe illness wise. It's pretty much accepted at this point that the variant is considerably more transmissible which unfortunately does have ramifications for us all.

Wolf359f

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

The irony of course is that after vaccinating the HCW’s and many vulnerable, the anti vaccer’s aren’t who the media told us they were.

Who can seriously believe that having 500k vaccines administered won’t make a monumental difference to hospital numbers

Vaccinate all HCW and all over 65 and instead of peaking at 2000+ people in hospital in January, we would have peaked at 1200 (deaths would have been significantly reduced though) - we could have stayed open for maybe 2 weeks more before we breached that 2000 though.

Turtwig

Wolf359f wrote: »

Vaccinate all HCW and all over 65 and instead of peaking at 2000+ people in hospital in January, we would have peaked at 1200 (deaths would have been significantly reduced though) - we could have stayed open for maybe 2 weeks more before we breached that 2000 though.

Pardon my ignorance how are you arriving at the 1200 peak?

noplacehere

Tyrone212 wrote: »

My cousin 31 has been called for his vaccine next week. He had bad asthma as a child, not so much now. They must be getting through group 4 fast enough if he's been called.

Asthma isn’t even being categorised as group 4 now

Wolf359f

Turtwig wrote: »

Pardon my ignorance how are you arriving at the 1200 peak?

About 60% of all hospitalizations are under 65, if the over 65 were all vaccinated, you would expect the number peaking in hospital would be 60% of that.
And yes I know you would expect a 65+ person to spend longer in hospital that a 20 yo etc... so the numbers of days a person under 65 would spend in hospital would be less. There's a lot of variables, it's just to make a point that if 65+ were all vaccinated we will still have younger people being hospitalized and it would be noticable.

Jim_Hodge

noplacehere wrote: »

Asthma isn’t even being categorised as group 4 now

Since when?

The HSE currently lists for cohort 4

asthma (continuous or repeated use of systemic corticosteroids),

gozunda

retro:electro wrote: »

But the figures are still relatively high and we’re being led to believe its rampant in the community. If the most vulnerable are being vaccinated then let’s open up as soon as possible because surely this new variant is no more deadly than all the other variants gone before it? If it was then hospital admissions would be shooting up and the opposite is happening

It would appear that the UK variant, B1.1.7. 
is indeed different to the previous varient in that it is estimated to be up to 70% more transmissible.

More transmissible means it spreads between people easier and results in higher case numbers in any given period compared to the original variant here. As a result of this new varient and despite vaccination - new case numbers appear to have plateaued



It is indeed possible that vaccinations are helping to reduce hospital numbers directly and directly.

However with the increased transmissibility of the UK varient- that means that if we open up too soon ie before we get a large number of people vaccinated - the likleyhood is that case numbers and hospital numbers will also rise.

And not necessarily as a result of those who are 'vulnerable'.

The most recent data (up to 31st of January 2021 when just under 200,000 vaccinations had been administrated) shows that approx 75% of all those in hospital with covid have no underlying condition.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40237760.html

odyssey06

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

Since when?

The HSE currently lists for cohort 4

Severe asthma is group 7 not group 4 I think

Wolf359f

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

Since when?

The HSE currently lists for cohort 4

It seems different than on gov.ie

Also, gov.ie don't seem to offer the daily updates on case and county numbers.

Turtwig

odyssey06 wrote: »

Severe asthma is group 7 not group 4 I think

It's mixed between both depending on severity, control and medication required. Clinical history would play a part too. Some folks with asthma are moderately higher risk than general population. Others are extremely higher risk. The latter of these would fall into cohort 4.

Wolf359f wrote: »

About 60% of all hospitalizations are under 65, if the over 65 were all vaccinated, you would expect the number peaking in hospital would be 60% of that.
And yes I know you would expect a 65+ person to spend longer in hospital that a 20 yo etc... so the numbers of days a person under 65 would spend in hospital would be less. There's a lot of variables, it's just to make a point that if 65+ were all vaccinated we will still have younger people being hospitalized and it would be noticable.

Cheers thanks for explaining.

odyssey06

Turtwig wrote: »

It's mixed between both depending on severity, control and medication required. Clinical history would play a part too. Some folks with asthma are moderately higher risk than general population. Others are extremely higher risk. The latter of these would fall into cohort 4.

Not saying you are wrong in practice but on gov.ie site severe asthma is in group 7

https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/39038-provisional-vaccine-allocation-groups/#aged-16-64-and-at-high-risk-of-severe-covid-19-disease

Wolf359f

gozunda wrote: »

This is the most recent updated vaccine allocation group list from gov.ie

Group. 4 includes Severe asthma



https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/39038-provisional-vaccine-allocation-groups/#aged-65-69-whose-underlying-condition-puts-them-at-a-high-risk-of-severe-disease-and-death

That's group 7: High Risk.
Group 4 is very high risk.
?

gozunda

Wolf359f wrote: »

That's group 7: High Risk.
Group 4 is very high risk.
?

Yeah rechecking you are correct.

Wolf359f

gozunda wrote: »

Yeah rechecking you are correct.

It's a bit of a mess the way it's layed out, but I could be mistaken that severe asthma where steroids where required (daily?) was group 4. I just remember people on here discussing it.

Klonker

TheDoctor wrote: »

Hospital figures at 8pm

Total 304 (down from 308 last night)
ICU 66 (down from 75 last night - 4 deaths)

Last Friday
Total 329
ICU 87

Where's this plateau in hospital numbers they keep telling us about?

Wolf359f

Klonker wrote: »

Where's this plateau in hospital numbers they keep telling us about?

We look to be over it now.
There was about 12 days where it didn't really budge. Seems to be on a downward trend now, but we still have the weekend to go!

FintanMcluskey

Wolf359f wrote: »

About 60% of all hospitalizations are under 65, if the over 65 were all vaccinated, you would expect the number peaking in hospital would be 60% of that.
And yes I know you would expect a 65+ person to spend longer in hospital that a 20 yo etc... so the numbers of days a person under 65 would spend in hospital would be less. There's a lot of variables, it's just to make a point that if 65+ were all vaccinated we will still have younger people being hospitalized and it would be noticable.

These calculations are ignoring the spread due to HCWs themselves

Which although inevitable, was still a cause

Kidney recipients in their early 30s revived their vaccine this week

We are in a far better place than people think