Covid 19 Part XXXIV-249,437 ROI(4,906 deaths) 120,195 NI (2,145 deaths)(01/05)Read OP

Sanjuro

JTMan wrote: »

The Irish Times here and the Indo here have some leaks/news on the restriction lifting that will be announced this week.

- Times: Ministers are increasingly reluctant to announce anything for the month of May beyond the resumption of construction, the reopening of hairdressers and personal services, the phased return of retail and allowing in-person religious service.
- Indo: Relaxations in May would cover non-essential services, personal services, such as hairdressing and barbering, museums and galleries, and religious services.
- It is widely expected the beer gardens and outside dining will be allowed from June.
- The Government is planning to allow up to 50 people at mass and regular religious services from mid-May – but not for funerals or weddings.There will be no further increase in the number allowed to attend a funeral mass, which rises from just 10 to 25 from today.

Do gyms count as personal services? Not classes. Individual gym stuff.

Doctor Jimbob

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Isn't that timeline what most expected though.

Like there's no shocks in there for me. I've read the articles and it's pretty much as was expected earlier last week as well.

The only thing that's a bit too slow is the outdoor dining. Apart from that May is as expected

The general timeline isn't a shock, it's more the fact that mass will be allowed with up to 50 people so soon despite being indoors which at this stage we all know is higher risk. The fact that weddings and funerals have to be smaller than regular mass is also bizarre.

lawred2

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

The general timeline isn't a shock, it's more the fact that mass will be allowed with up to 50 people so soon despite being indoors which at this stage we all know is higher risk. The fact that weddings and funerals have to be smaller than regular mass is also bizarre.

Alcohol consumption is associated with funerals and weddings. That's why.

Lumen

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

The general timeline isn't a shock, it's more the fact that mass will be allowed with up to 50 people so soon despite being indoors which at this stage we all know is higher risk. The fact that weddings and funerals have to be smaller than regular mass is also bizarre.

Weddings are different. Singing, booze, holes being sought. Classic superspreader situation.

I don't recall any mass being like that. Maybe I went to the wrong ones.

titan18

Sanjuro wrote: »

Do gyms count as personal services? Not classes. Individual gym stuff.

I reckon it would have said it if so, so I'm saying nope. I've seen zero mentions anywhere of gyms reopening so i'm guessing June at best atm.

stephenjmcd

Sanjuro wrote: »

Do gyms count as personal services? Not classes. Individual gym stuff.

I've been wondering about that too. Haven't seen everything but gyms mentioned recently

Gael23

I think funerals should be changed to immediate relatives only rather than a specific number to ensure all close family members can attend.

Sanjuro

titan18 wrote: »

I reckon it would have said it if so, so I'm saying nope. I've seen zero mentions anywhere of gyms reopening so i'm guessing June at best atm.

Yeah, I could see that happening. There was a two step process before. Individual training followed by classes. The main thing is we have clarity on things.

Jim_Hodge

Gael23 wrote: »

I think funerals should be changed to immediate relatives only rather than a specific number to ensure all close family members can attend.

Define immediate relative. Numbers is the only way to do it.

Gael23

Gael23 wrote: »

I think funerals should be changed to immediate relatives only rather than a specific number to ensure all close family members can attend.

Given immediate family usually means parents, spouse, siblings and children, is that not more restrictive, for most families at least? And what about where there is an partner of the deceased but they never married?

The HorsesMouth

Deleted User wrote: »

Given immediate family usually means parents, spouse, siblings and children, is that not more restrictive, for most families at least? And what about where there is an partner of the deceased but they never married?

And what about grandchildren then too? Some grandchildren live with grandparents. I agree numbers is the only way to go

is_that_so

bucketybuck wrote: »

And when winter and dark nights arrive it will be "remember last christmas, its nearly flu season, we will need to stay closed just in case!!!"

NPHET will not be around forever. At some point it will be dissolved and normal governing by politicians will return.

is_that_so

stephenjmcd wrote: »

I've been wondering about that too. Haven't seen everything but gyms mentioned recently

They are not as high profile as other stuff and TBH there is no reason they can't open with the rest with the effective systems they set up last year.

stephenjmcd

is_that_so wrote: »

They are not as high profile as other stuff and TBH there is no reason they can't open with the rest with the effective systems they set up last year.

Yeah absolutely agree. My own gym had a huge renovation during first lockdown, massive space now between equipment and everything was ran very well

kleiner feigling

https://twitter.com/LeoVaradkar/status/1385632145981513731?s=20
This is a game changer - surely it is now time to audit the use of PCR testing, and adjust the national figures accordingly.
How many false positives are we actually getting, considering people who are not sick and have no symptoms are now being tested in the walk-in centres?

This is not trivial, the "case" numbers have been the metric most used by the government to justify draconian measures, and by the media to erode public morale.

is_that_so

Turtwig wrote: »

Israel unlocked at 50%. They operated a strict vaccine certification system for indoor venues.
We don't appear to have the appetite for such a system here.

We also have very little data of first dose efficacy re transmission. Most of the studies done so far are on HCWs in a healthcare setting which would have strict infection control processes in place. Gen pop locations were in the midst of a lockdown.
Preliminary indicators are really positive. The UK in the next 4 to 6 weeks will tell us a lot.

There is certainly an appetite in some cohorts of the population to keep the unclean out but there would be far too much blowback on it and enforcement would be patchy if non-existent. Not only that but it would be at least July if not August before you'd get anything anything more than the over 65s fully vaccinated.

pjohnson

is_that_so wrote: »

There is certainly an appetite in some cohorts of the population to keep the unclean out but there would be far too much blowback on it and enforcement would be patchy if non-existent. Not only that but it would be at least July if not August before you'd get anything more than the over 65s fully vaccinated.

Well those resisting are why everything has to stay shut.

Although I'm sure those who complain about it are the same ones complaining about it being shut

Quantum Erasure

Lumen wrote: »

Weddings are different. Singing, booze, holes being sought. Classic superspreader situation.

I don't recall any mass being like that. Maybe I went to the wrong ones.

Peace be with you, peace be with you, peace be with you.....

bucketybuck

is_that_so wrote: »

NPHET will not be around forever. At some point it will be dissolved and normal governing by politicians will return.

"At some point".

Unfortunately that point is going to be long after they should have been ****ed out on their ear, and long after the government should already have started taking responsibility for their own actions.

We should be seeing the end of this now but mark my words, they are going to cling to power as long as they possibly can, Tony in particular is going to stretch this out as long as he can in the name of his anti-alcohol agenda.

No doubt the usual shills will cry "conspiracy theory". And yet here we are, look around you, look at all those kites flying.

TheDoctor

Very small weekend increase in hospital numbers 8pm Friday to 8pm Sunday

Total up from 164 to 173
ICU down from 48 to 46

is_that_so

pjohnson wrote: »

Well those resisting are why everything has to stay shut.

Although I'm sure those who complain about it are the same ones complaining about it being shut

I'm talking about the possible use of passports not vaccines.

gozunda

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

Peace be with you, peace be with you, peace be with you.....

The old handshake was done away in the early days afaik ...

Beechwoodspark

JTMan wrote: »

The Irish Times here and the Indo here have some leaks/news on the restriction lifting that will be announced this week.

- Times: Ministers are increasingly reluctant to announce anything for the month of May beyond the resumption of construction, the reopening of hairdressers and personal services, the phased return of retail and allowing in-person religious service.
- Indo: Relaxations in May would cover non-essential services, personal services, such as hairdressing and barbering, museums and galleries, and religious services.
- It is widely expected the beer gardens and outside dining will be allowed from June.
- The Government is planning to allow up to 50 people at mass and regular religious services from mid-May – but not for funerals or weddings.There will be no further increase in the number allowed to attend a funeral mass, which rises from just 10 to 25 from today.

This all depends on vaccine roll out and the efficacy of those vaccines. And of course no wild card “events dear boy” incidents

Jim_Hodge

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

Peace be with you, peace be with you, peace be with you.....

You obviously haven't been for a long, long time.

kleiner feigling

kleiner feigling wrote: »

https://twitter.com/LeoVaradkar/status/1385632145981513731?s=20
This is a game changer - surely it is now time to audit the use of PCR testing, and adjust the national figures accordingly.
How many false positives are we actually getting, considering people who are not sick and have no symptoms are now being tested in the walk-in centres?

This is not trivial, the "case" numbers have been the metric most used by the government to justify draconian measures, and by the media to erode public morale.

Positive rate in Israel is 0.2% - false positives are not a major issue.

More likely that these two staff members have a previous positive - that they may or may not have known of and the CT cut-offs were not applied. There is clear guidance on how to classify tests where there has been a previous positive or where there are no symptoms and no epidemiological link. Due to the extremely high risks resulting from outbreaks in care home, these may not have been applied in these settings. Now that staff and residents are vaccinated, the risk is different

gozunda

tommybrees wrote: »

Has the virus been informed to only affect people in pubs, restaurants and gym's but not Woodies, aldi or the local off license?

Perhaps we could ask it? :cool:

Pubs, restaurants - not considered essential activities and are associated with socialising / close contact with social distancing being difficult with people staying in these venues for extended periods of time etc. Gyms - enclosed spaces with risk of spread has been linked to moist, warm air combined with turbulent air flow from exercising creating an environment in which virus droplets can spread readily and remains airborne for a long time.

Aldi, Woodies, local off licence come under essential retail. Though imho only supermarkets meet the full criteria. DIY and alcohol sales are also considered eligible to allow people purchase necessary household / DIY goods and off- licences because if people couldn't purchase alcohol - there would probably hell to pay. All are places where people generally tend not to socialise etc

I dont really believe any of that needs explanation tbf.

kleiner feigling

Deleted User wrote: »

Positive rate in Israel is 0.2% - false positives are not a major issue.

More likely that these two staff members have a previous positive - that they may or may not have known of and the CT cut-offs were not applied. There is clear guidance on how to classify tests where there has been a previous positive or where there are no symptoms and no epidemiological link. Due to the extremely high risks resulting from outbreaks in care home, these may not have been applied in these settings. Now that staff and residents are

vaccinated, the risk is different

There's a fair bit of supposition there.
Surely it all depends on the number of cycles used. I can't comment on Israel stats.
Anyone have details of # cycles used in Ireland?
I think it's reasonable to understand how many false positives we're likely to have had at various stages over the past year?
The antigen and antibody tests could surely help in clarifying whether positive results are accurate or not.

iamwhoiam

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

You obviously haven't been for a long, long time.

Late February 2020 we had a funeral for a family member. The priest asked us not to shake hands due to a virus in Italy . We all did as asked then went out and hugged the 200 people who had kindly come

Lumen

kleiner feigling wrote: »

Anyone have details of # cycles used in Ireland?

This was answered by the MoH in Nov 2020.

SARS-CoV-2 PCR assays in Ireland are operated in accordance with the manufacturers' instructions, and the CE marking for the assay. It is the manufacturer that decides the optimal number of cycles for the assay, not the testing laboratory.

Higher Cycle threshold values typically indicate a lower amount of virus in the sample. However, the CT value alone does not indicate whether the virus load is increasing or decreasing, it does not indicate whether the individual is infectious or not, and it does not provide an indication of the specimen quality (i.e. how closely the specimen mirrors what is actually happening in the patient's respiratory tract).

The number of PCR cycles used in Ireland is decided by the manufacturer of the assay, so there is no single answer. The HSE uses a wide range of assays. As a general rule, most assays run for 40-45 cycles

Source: https://www.hse.ie/eng/about/personalpq/pq/2020-pq-responses/november-2020/pq-37051-20-michael-fitzmaurice.pdf

It was the first Google result for pcr cycles ireland

AlmightyCushion

kleiner feigling wrote: »

There's a fair bit of supposition there.
Surely it all depends on the number of cycles used. I can't comment on Israel stats.
Anyone have details of # cycles used in Ireland?
I think it's reasonable to understand how many false positives we're likely to have had at various stages over the past year?
The antigen and antibody tests could surely help in clarifying whether positive results are accurate or not.

Last summer we had days where we had only 8 cases. False positives are pretty rare.