Covid 19 Part XXXIV-249,437 ROI(4,906 deaths) 120,195 NI (2,145 deaths)(01/05)Read OP

wadacrack

isha wrote: »

The global story with vaccination is interesting (to me). Skip now if you don't like contrarian observations.

Firstly, 4 to 5 months into a vigorous global campaign all but mandating vaccines only about 3.3% of the worlds population is fully vaccinated, and that small % are already turning their attentions to updating the mRNA codes to avoid variant escape. Vaccines biannually now is the accepted wisdom.

Meanwhile the vast majority of the world will be a very long time waiting for even a first dose of what will be by then an out dated shot - perhaps a shot from vaccine 'generously' gifted with much public announcements from the rich part of the world from stocks that have lost the trust of the rich populations due to perceived risks.

So most of the world will never catch up on the game. They will never qualify for vaccination proof cards. They will incubate variants in ongoing waves and especially troublesome variants where there are leaky vaccination campaigns, which lets face it will be the norm in most of the world. And because of the complete inter connectedness of the world variants toughened by escaping leaky vaccine protocols will fly everywhere.

Vaccinated people will also incubate variants as the injections are not sterilising. They may do so at a lower rate than their disadvantaged global companions, but they will do so, and asymptomatically. And they will also train virus escape because transmission, however lowered, will continue.

The stats re countries with high vaccination rates are also interesting and one could say anomalous. Everyone trumpets Israel and the UK. Sure, cases are down there. Although Israel is only a matter of weeks past numbers similar to our own now, with double the population. It is quite possible that like us they were coming off the peak of a very high wave regardless of interventions and that slope downwards is always going to be impressive. Just a thought.

But anyway, back to anomalous country stats, Gibraltar and the Seychelles are the top most vaccinated places in the world. Gibraltar is right down in cases, Seychelles at 68% vaccinated is up in cases. 100 cases yesterday in a population less than 100,000 people. That would be like 5000 cases here. Odd.

The UAE has come down from a peak but leveled out at high numbers. 2000 cases yesterday in a population of 9 million, so would be 1000 cases here, for comparison. The UAE has 40% of their population fully vaccinated.

37% of Bahrain is fully vaccinated and they are still mostly going up in cases. 1000 cases yesterday in a population one third the size of ours.

Chile has 45% of population vaccinated. 6700 cases yesterday in a population about 3 and a half times our population.

Isle of Man had their biggest peak of covid in mid March 2021. There the quick vaccine roll out started in January.

Bhutan has had very little covid generally. 1 death. 62% are fully vaccinated. The population is less than 800,000. They had what could be called their highest wave in December, with cases for a week or so in the high 20s. They are having another little wave and cases hit the 20s in the last few days. Numbers are small but occur nonetheless in spite of very high vaccination rate.


All to say that things may not be what they seem. Time will tell.

Their is a lag between vaccination of case numbers dropping of 6-8 weeks. The countries to watch were the UK and Israel as they started at a high rate much earlier than the other countries you have mentioned.

UK and Israel had the advantage of a hard lockdown also so started from a lower base.

Ro below 1 in both countries thats the most important stat to remember. Speculating on other countries with still low percentages of people vaccinated seems naïve to me.

Malta have 70% of their poplulation vaccinated and cases are falling quickly. 7 day average of 28 with a population of 500,000

johnnyskeleton

gozunda wrote: »

Maybe not buts Its just as easy for many to exercise outside, go for a walk or a run or a cycle.

Afaik just 10% of Irelands population use a gym with the majority of users being in the 18 to 40 age group.

Its not at all the same, and also if you have a load of under 40s running around in a park, that makes the ocer 70s a lot less lilely to take a stroll etc.

My parents in their 70s use the gym and cant wait to get back to it.

Gyms, on top of all the equipment, provide assistance ans motivation to the people who need it most i.e. the people who struggle to find that motivation.

I somehow think more than 10% of the population might need a haircut once every 4 weeks or so.

Which to prioritise? Hair dressers I reckon but It won't matter once both are open in the short-term

So the decision was made on what will please the most amount of people, not on what is good for peoples health?

prunudo

AdamD wrote: »

Ah yes, a completely arbitray rule to determine who loses their livelihoods and who doesn't, which actually pushed people towards a smaller number of premises making them busier and thus riskier. A policy so successful its been scrapped.

But yeah, we just didn't understand.

Throughout the pandemic, many of the restrictions actually caused this scenario. The 2km and a lesser extent the 5km limit curtailed many people to crowded areas and nowhere to escape large crowds.

Arghus

Arghus wrote: »

Believe it or not, I'm hoping for the best. But I guess I am a bit mentally traumatised and jaded too. The whole Covid experience has played out in entirely unpredictable ways, so I'm still pretty reticent to feel like we have it licked, even if I desperately want to be. Let's hope for a good Summer for everybody and that the worst of this shyte is behind us.

I feel exactly the same. Said it elsewhere, living alone and somebody who ordinarily lived travelling and gadding about, I feel a bit like that caged bird who is afraid to fly out o car the cage door has been opened, I'm almost fearing my flight to freedom and afraid to dream.

bucketybuck

Turtwig wrote: »

This is not as far fetched as it sounds. I suspect when NPHETS modelling is published it will have potential for a large wave in July or August.

They had better hope there isn't another wave, because I'd suggest they won't be able to use lockdowns to fight it.

The lockdowns went on too hard and for too long, to the point that people stopped respecting or adhering to them. They are blunted from overuse so if it comes to August/September and cases are skyrocketing, the government can announce whatever restrictions they want but people aren't going to listen to them.

5k limit and no visiting your parents in August? Only the most diehard of lockdown fans are going to pay anything but lip service to that.

The Government had lost the people in the last few weeks. Once the tide had turned against them it was going to become impossible to control...... especially in good weather, after people had been cooped up for months on end. There is only so long you can control the human instinct for freedom, the outdoors, the sunshine, fun! Even older people I know had given up on the 5km. Government said the other day Garden Centers can now open - they HAVE been open here since February! I got my PVC windows replaced last month too!

Huge activity and lots of business was all going on and Government risked looking like complete fools if they kept up the charade for any longer.

Having said that the vaccinations and MHQ have played the biggest part in all of this and that's good. I would like to see air travel back by late Summer if people are vaccinated/ negative PCR test.....and no more MHQ!! The cliff we are all about to fall over economically and money running out was a huge factor in opening up. I'd say part of borrowing EU money for Covid was that we buy millions of doses of vacciniation and get them into arms ASAP as there was an expiry date on Covid Aid from Ursula.

However I am a bit worried about what's coming at us in this year's Budget!!

Northernlily

Lumen wrote: »

Incidentally, I had one hotel weekend away last summer and it was crap. Even relatively minor Covid restrictions sucked the fun out of it.

But then I've never really enjoyed Irish hotels. The whole experience seems priced and packaged for foreigners.

Prefer to rent a house or go abroad.

Same, a hotel in Covid times was an absolutely desperate experience. Everything I go to hotels for was gone. Room Service, Fresh Sheets, Leisure facilities.

So bad I went home after 2 nights. Won't be doing that again for a while.

Northernlily

Northernlily wrote: »

Same, a hotel in Covid times was an absolutely desperate experience. Everything I go to hotels for was gone. Room Service, Fresh Sheets, Leisure facilities.

So bad I went home after 2 nights. Won't be doing that again for a while.

I had 3 Airbnb stays during 2020, utterly fabulous! (Louisburgh, Ballyferriter, Ballintoy) A much better experience in my view than hotels. Bring your own food, eat when you want, drink when you want, dress whatever way you like for breakfast, walk out your door straight on to a beach! Total relaxation.

speckle

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I feel exactly the same. Said it elsewhere, living alone and somebody who ordinarily lived travelling and gadding about, I feel a bit like that caged bird who is afraid to fly out o car the cage door has been opened, I'm almost fearing my flight to freedom and afraid to dream.

Please do dare to dream and embrace your freedom ...or this has all been for nothing....I live with being higher risk and unable to be vaccinated due to a serious previous reaction but want as many people as possible..I want people to choose life and all the things that make us human... hugging..touch...laughter..tears...music... find their full potential no matter their age...dancing ...social interaction...grieving...meeting the love of their life...culture...never giving up...and I will be doing the above albeit possibly at a slight time lag while waiting in the wings and watching everybody elses tiny baby steps or even giant ones to that brighter future with joy.

I am proud of us as a people and a nation...mistakes ..arguements..debates and all the good deeds done over the last year or so...we rose to the occassion... even here on boards and we will meet what ever happens in the future likewise.
I wait for both a national day of mourning and celebration in the future equally.

Ps.. if you all holiday at home this summer try not to arrive down here at all the same time or ye will tilt the county into the sea ..maybe bring a native tree to plant or plant one in your garden before leaving

ednwireland

Northernlily wrote: »

Same, a hotel in Covid times was an absolutely desperate experience. Everything I go to hotels for was gone. Room Service, Fresh Sheets, Leisure facilities.

So bad I went home after 2 nights. Won't be doing that again for a while.

i went to 2 last summer

raddisson in athlone - ok but bar wasnt available to residents without food otherwise grand, didnt feel like the cleaning rotas in public spaces were great.

the granville in waterford - brilliant obviously continuously cleaned - even chairs and tables cleaned when anyone left. brilliant breakfast, even pints in the residents lounge , really showed up the chain thats for sure.

Drumpot

Turtwig wrote: »

This is not as far fetched as it sounds. I suspect when NPHETS modelling is published it will have potential for a large wave in July or August. These are uncharted waters. We're doing things different to Israel. We're largely going to be guided by the UK experience who themselves have only begun to open up. One misstep by us and there will be a large spike. The key is the timing of the spike: will enough people be vaccinated so that it doesn't matter? We have taken the very reasonable calculated gamble that there will be sufficient people vaccinated to keep hospitalisations low. It's not a guarantee though. A lot has to go right. Our vaccination program needs to keep accelerating, we've got to get comfortable with a certain level of infection, we got to accept that between now and August unvaccinated people may end up hospital. There will be collateral. This may actually be in younger low risk demographics. So we can expect deaths to be lower and hospital stays to be shorter. There will be both of these albeit at manageable levels that shouldn't impact routine health care. However, if too many people become infected at once there's still potential to overwhelm the system. It's a risk. A low risk but it's not nonsense. This all could go very very wrong. I don't think it will. I do very much hope that if it does go wrong we actually have the courage to reverse course proactively. I actually don't think we would. That's what my biggest fear about all of this. Thankfully I'm very optimistic that we won't have to visit that scenario.

We can't afford to be overly anxious. We can't afford to be complacent either. I'm confident we can get the balance right. We shouldn't dismiss outcomes we don't like as nonsense many of them are still within the realms of possibilities.

Cautious optimism is the most prudent way to manage yesterday’s plan to open up.

It’s interesting that people have spoken about mental health a lot. As somebody who has suffered with these issues for as long as I can remember , I’ve not found the last year any tougher then other years. In a perverse way, it’s been comforting (not in a happy way) to see so many suffer what I go through generally in life. The difference the last year is that most people have been anxious about an easily identifiable threat and it will probably subside for them as the issues of COVId lesson.

There has been some unusual perspectives on the anxiety element. I think it’s actually normal to be anxious about a pandemic upending everybody’s life. There seems to be an idea with some that anxiety and fear are bad, they are not bad. Too much of one can be toxic but no enough is equally dangerous with many people taking unnecessary risks and miscalculating the severity of the disease because they can’t moderate how they feel about it all.

I don’t think everybody needs therapy after this and I think a majority of people will move on as the crisis moves on. This is a misconception of mental health, that everybody will need the same support. Makes me think of the concerns the US army had during the Vietnam war, with so many soldiers taking heroin. In Short, when the soldiers returned home to more stable environment, only 10% of them taking heroine continued to do so. I think a similar thing will happen with COVID, once things go back to relative normalcy, most will be fine.

speckle

speckle wrote: »

Please do dare to dream and embrace your freedom ...or this has all been for nothing....I live with being higher risk and unable to be vaccinated due to a serious previous reaction but want as many people as possible..I want people to choose life and all the things that make us human... hugging..touch...laughter..tears...music... find their full potential no matter their age...dancing ...social interaction...grieving...meeting the love of their life...culture...never giving up...and I will be doing the above albeit possibly at a slight time lag while waiting in the wings and watching everybody elses tiny baby steps or even giant ones to that brighter future with joy.

I am proud of us as a people and a nation...mistakes ..arguements..debates and all the good deeds done over the last year or so...we rose to the occassion... even here on boards and we will meet what ever happens in the future likewise.
I wait for both a national day of mourning and celebration in the future equally.

Ps.. if you all holiday at home this summer try not to arrive down here at all the same time or ye will tilt the county into the sea ..maybe bring a native tree to plant or plant one in your garden before leaving

Good post! Yes, feel the fear and do it anyway! I'm not a fearful person and never was throughout Covid, I never thought about getting it. I was more depressed about the restrictions, I feared them more and now I am thrilled.

It will be natural for many people to be hesitant about embracing their new found freedom but that will change very quickly I'd say. It will be led by example of the many people who will just slip naturally back into living and others will follow. I suppose at the end of the day a lot of it will be individual choice too and maybe even personality type, but hopefully most will embrace this stage we've finally got to and start living again with joy!

I can't wait to dance again..............with someone!

daydorunrun

isha wrote: »

The global story with vaccination is interesting (to me). Skip now if you don't like contrarian observations.

Firstly, 4 to 5 months into a vigorous global campaign all but mandating vaccines only about 3.3% of the worlds population is fully vaccinated, and that small % are already turning their attentions to updating the mRNA codes to avoid variant escape. Vaccines biannually now is the accepted wisdom.

Meanwhile the vast majority of the world will be a very long time waiting for even a first dose of what will be by then an out dated shot - perhaps a shot from vaccine 'generously' gifted with much public announcements from the rich part of the world from stocks that have lost the trust of the rich populations due to perceived risks.

So most of the world will never catch up on the game. They will never qualify for vaccination proof cards. They will incubate variants in ongoing waves and especially troublesome variants where there are leaky vaccination campaigns, which lets face it will be the norm in most of the world. And because of the complete inter connectedness of the world variants toughened by escaping leaky vaccine protocols will fly everywhere.

Vaccinated people will also incubate variants as the injections are not sterilising. They may do so at a lower rate than their disadvantaged global companions, but they will do so, and asymptomatically. And they will also train virus escape because transmission, however lowered, will continue.

The stats re countries with high vaccination rates are also interesting and one could say anomalous. Everyone trumpets Israel and the UK. Sure, cases are down there. Although Israel is only a matter of weeks past numbers similar to our own now, with double the population. It is quite possible that like us they were coming off the peak of a very high wave regardless of interventions and that slope downwards is always going to be impressive. Just a thought.

But anyway, back to anomalous country stats, Gibraltar and the Seychelles are the top most vaccinated places in the world. Gibraltar is right down in cases, Seychelles at 68% vaccinated is up in cases. 100 cases yesterday in a population less than 100,000 people. That would be like 5000 cases here. Odd.

The UAE has come down from a peak but leveled out at high numbers. 2000 cases yesterday in a population of 9 million, so would be 1000 cases here, for comparison. The UAE has 40% of their population fully vaccinated.

37% of Bahrain is fully vaccinated and they are still mostly going up in cases. 1000 cases yesterday in a population one third the size of ours.

Chile has 45% of population vaccinated. 6700 cases yesterday in a population about 3 and a half times our population.

Isle of Man had their biggest peak of covid in mid March 2021. There the quick vaccine roll out started in January.

Bhutan has had very little covid generally. 1 death. 62% are fully vaccinated. The population is less than 800,000. They had what could be called their highest wave in December, with cases for a week or so in the high 20s. They are having another little wave and cases hit the 20s in the last few days. Numbers are small but occur nonetheless in spite of very high vaccination rate.


All to say that things may not be what they seem. Time will tell.

You haven't accounted for the type of vaccine used in these examples- they are not all equal.

Sinovac for example has a very low efficacy. I feel to the point it gives people a false sense of security in that recipient's feel they are immune. Truth is they are less than 50% immune. This vaccine has been used widely in the middle east and South America.

In fact the direct good and bad examples you use- Gibraltar and the Seychelles are a good illustration of this.

Gibraltar- Mostly Pfizer
Seychelles - Mostly Sinopharm (China)

Pat Kenny continuing to do his best to paint the worst case scenarios and imply disaster

daydorunrun

daydorunrun wrote: »

You haven't accounted for the type of vaccine used in these examples- they are not all equal.

Sinovac for example has a very low efficacy. I feel to the point it gives people a false sense of security in that recipient's feel they are immune. Truth is they are less than 50% immune. This vaccine has been used widely in the middle east and South America.

In fact the direct good and bad examples you use- Gibraltar and the Seychelles are a good illustration of this.

Gibraltar- Mostly Pfizer
Seychelles - Mostly Sinopharm (China)

You are also not looking at the bigger picture. Vaccines with apparently lower efficacy rate affect the global scenario. Plus other countries in my examples are using different vaccines eg Bhutan mostly astrazeneca, and UAE a broad mix much the same as ourselves.
But the fundamental point that globally the vaccination rate is low and will be low going forwards, and will be continuously undermined by the richer world chasing variants with boosters when other places have not even gotten past leaky first rounds. This will be a very large factor in the global picture of covid.

stephenjmcd

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Pat Kenny continuing to do his best to paint the worst case scenarios and imply disaster

I wouldn't even bother listening to most of those things anymore to be honest.

Likewise I wouldn't listen to most of what politicians say now either. For example you've MM who cautious to an extreme extent and then you've others who are already saying well if this are going good through June we might speed things up, great we'd all like that but no point in trying to fly that kite today, likewise for MM the over cautious teacher routine is gone old now.

No point in trying to predict every outcome 2 months or more down the line, you'd go crazy trying to do both

eigrod

Donnelly on Clare Byrne now

Pandiculation

Seems the main focus needs to be ventilation, ventilation and ventilation. We got very caught up on the surface cleaning and that appears to be very much secondary to the main risk that was always enclosed spaces with poor air changes.

The better summer weather needs to be used to it maximum to get outdoor and semi outdoor stuff happening.

Also much better advice on ventilation needs to br publicly available and communicated well.

By the time the weather turns cooler in September, we should be very thoroughly vaccinated with 2 doses. So it’ll be much easier.

speckle

Speaking of ventillation..anybody know a good cheap deal on a pop up gazebo..preferable a dark colour...thats available for delievery? Any Irish entreperneur with a good website?

daydorunrun

daydorunrun wrote: »

Open the gyms!

Obesity 'a major factor' in risk of hospitalisation and death from COVID – study

Obesity is a significant factor in the likelihood that someone will be severely affected by COVID-19, a major UK study has found.

Obese people don't go to the gym. That's why they're obese.

iamwhoiam

speckle wrote: »

Speaking of ventillation..anybody know a good cheap deal on a pop up gazebo..preferable a dark colour...thats available for delievery? Any Irish entreperneur with a good website?

Try Home store and More .I ordered parasols and they arrived the next day .

Happydays2020

eigrod wrote: »

Donnelly on Clare Byrne now

It is a love in on variants and locking people up.

eigrod

eigrod wrote: »

Donnelly on Clare Byrne now

Thanks for the heads up. I'll be avoiding that station for the next hour.

eigrod

Happydays2020 wrote: »

It is a love in on variants and locking people up.

She is insufferable. Anything positive he says, she throws in a negative grenade - every single time.

mohawk

Pandiculation wrote: »

Seems the main focus needs to be ventilation, ventilation and ventilation. We got very caught up on the surface cleaning and that appears to be very much secondary to the main risk that was always enclosed spaces with poor air changes.

The better summer weather needs to be used to it maximum to get outdoor and semi outdoor stuff happening.

Also much better advice on ventilation needs to br publicly available and communicated well.

By the time the weather turns cooler in September, we should be very thoroughly vaccinated with 2 doses. So it’ll be much easier.

The research on this is clear. Ventilation is key indoors. It’s not just a matter of opening one window. You want to create an airflow which will disperse any viruses in the air.
If anyone is working in an Office with ****ty aircon that just recirculates the air you need to turn off the aircon and open the windows. Obviously some offices are nice with HEPA filters but I have definitely worked in some not so nice offices in my time.

Pandiculation

eigrod wrote: »

She is insufferable. Anything positive he says, she throws in a negative grenade - every single time.

To be fair though, her tv show has probably given ‘Reeling in the Years’ more footage than they’ll ever be able to fit into one programme.

daydorunrun

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Obese people don't go to the gym. That's why they're obese.

I know a few people that were gym regulars and tried to find alternatives and then gave up up the last year and so have fallen out to the habit while also eating and drinking more than they should. They are now heavier and more at risk

Another report last week linked fitness with lower risk (33%) of being badly effected by covid,
Makes no sense to me to categorise gym and pub in terms of risk when it comes to reopening.

The real elephant in the room of course is that obesity is a proven major contributor to this pandemic and yet it gets little coverage.

obese people who have been vaccinated because their size puts them in the high risk category are not told why they are getting fast tracked. Doctors are afraid or not willing to break it to them.

So maybe we should open the gyms and start prescribing exercise rather than medication for hypertension, diabetes etc.

seamus

139 in hospital this morning. After a bumpy two weeks, we seem to be back on track.

If we follow a similar pattern to last year, we could be down to low double digits by the end of May.

daydorunrun wrote: »

Makes no sense to me to categorise gym and pub in terms of risk when it comes to reopening.

Some of the data from elsewhere puts gyms in a high-risk category. The data doesn't have to make sense.

The real elephant in the room of course is that obesity is a proven major contributor to this pandemic and yet it gets little coverage.

It's one contributor, but age is the biggest.

So maybe we should open the gyms and start prescribing exercise rather than medication for hypertension, diabetes etc.

Absolutely with you on this, long term. Just not maybe in the middle of a pandemic where gyms are believed to be an issue.

Why are gyms an issue? My anecdotal experience - from the nine months I used a gym regularly in 2019/2020 - is that the number of older and high-risk individuals using the gym was massive. At any given time you'd have one or two of the muscleheads and a couple of younger women doing cardio. But at least half of those present were men and women over 60. Doing some weights, a bit of cardio, a movement class, whatever. And hanging around the locker rooms, all the aul lads having the chats.
So if you were to ask me how gyms could be a high-risk location, that's what I'd be pointing at; how much of their clientele (who actually use the gym) are in the high-risk age categories?

kleiner feigling

Pandiculation wrote: »

Seems the main focus needs to be ventilation, ventilation and ventilation. We got very caught up on the surface cleaning and that appears to be very much secondary to the main risk that was always enclosed spaces with poor air changes.

The better summer weather needs to be used to it maximum to get outdoor and semi outdoor stuff happening.

Also much better advice on ventilation needs to br publicly available and communicated well.

By the time the weather turns cooler in September, we should be very thoroughly vaccinated with 2 doses. So it’ll be much easier.

This cannot be stressed enough.
Was in a small cafe yesterday with very "strict" covid measures.... but every window closed and the place was like a sauna. People will mask up etc, but a draught is too much to suffer apparently

Pandiculation

mohawk wrote: »

The research on this is clear. Ventilation is key indoors. It’s not just a matter of opening one window. You want to create an airflow which will disperse any viruses in the air.
If anyone is working in an Office with ****ty aircon that just recirculates the air you need to turn off the aircon and open the windows. Obviously some offices are nice with HEPA filters but I have definitely worked in some not so nice offices in my time.

Also beware that HEPA filters may or may or remove the virus from the air, depending on their spec. Many will just pass it straight though. The spec for aircraft systems is very high compared to what you’ll have in your typical air filter in a domestic / office situation.

You also need to be extremely careful how you handle and change a HEPA filter if it’s been used in a public space like that due to the possible presence of large amounts of virus. It literally means gloves, FFP2 or 3 masks and all of that.

They’re nearly more hassle than they’re worth for a lot of situations.

Getting air out the windows makes more sense.

I wonder about the use of large window fans to just draw air in or out. I’ve seen mixed messaging on this from experts but it seems to me like getting maximum air out of the space is important be it by wind or fan.

They need to get through to people though that they shouldn’t use air conditioning. A lot of the systems used in places like cafes and shops here are just cassette United in the ceiling and return all the air to the room again, just chilled and dehumidified.

It would make more sense to have a big fan at the door.

Some big air handling systems like in shopping centres & cinemas and so on should be analysed by experts to ensure they can do maximum air change. Many of them can be reconfigured fairly easily. That’s something the HSE or DoH needs to be helping with.