Covid 19 Part XXXIV-249,437 ROI(4,906 deaths) 120,195 NI (2,145 deaths)(01/05)Read OP

purplefields

Deeper Blue wrote: »

Most of this post is pure conjecture

Well of course it is.
I would have thought that self-evident considering I'm making predictions about the future.

The virus could certainly suddenly fizzle out. It could evolve to a dominant benign variant. However, there is also the possibility it could evolve into something far worse.

This is what Governments are terrified of - and lockdowns continue or even get more stringent.

From my armchair youtube research, I believe a worse variant is a likely outcome because:
1. People can spread it before getting sick. This means that the virus doesn't have to evolve into something more benign. It's spread before the person dies.

2. It seems to be able to infect vast numbers of people. More cases = more mutations. (also why Governments are worried about cases, even if it's 20 something year olds getting it)

3.It is a single strand RNA virus. This means it can mutate easier than a double strand style virus and harder to make vaccines for.

Wolf359f

Klonker wrote: »

I posted it here earlier. Ronan Glynn and Leo both said that if all elderly and vulnerable are vaccinated we'll still have 3.5% of cases ending up in hospital. They didn't mention what percentage of that 3.5% would be the vaccinated or unvaccinated but you'd expect that they think the unvaccinated will make up the majority of the 3.5%. They didn't say what age is viewed as elderly or what groups constitute vulnerable.

My point is currently less than 3% of cases under 65s are hospitalised so its hard to see how this would jump to 3.5% when vulnerable are vaccinated too. The modelling by NPHET certainly needs to be questioned on this.

I think they were trying to make the point that taking the vulnerable out of the equation (via vaccination), young and healthy people will still need hospital care.
The 3.5% seems a little high (it's currently 2.6% of under 65*)
Once would assume with cohort 4 being vaccinated, that 2.6% would drop.

*That's based on the 14 days reports, but if someone tests positive and are hospitalized after the 14 day report is complied, they would not be counted, so that figure could be wildly understated.

Klonker

Wolf359f wrote: »

I think they were trying to make the point that taking the vulnerable out of the equation (via vaccination), young and healthy people will still need hospital care.
The 3.5% seems a little high (it's currently 2.6% of under 65*)
Once would assume with cohort 4 being vaccinated, that 2.6% would drop.

*That's based on the 14 days reports, but if someone tests positive and are hospitalized after the 14 day report is complied, they would not be counted, so that figure could be wildly understated.

I get the point they're trying to make. We can't just forget all restrictions as soon as the vulnerable are all vaccinated. But they shouldn't be making up or manipulating stats or modelling to make this point. As you've shown the 3.5% makes absolutely no sense. If they think we'll need restrictions after the vulnerable are vaccinated (and I'm not trying to advocate we won't) then they should be able with real modelling to show this if it's true and not lie to us. They want us all to keep buying into all this yet they won't be honest with us.

Dickie10

i dont think there will be much retrictions eased between now and mid june. id say it will be july before hotels/pubs open

Wolf359f

Klonker wrote: »

I get the point they're trying to make. We can't just forget all restrictions as soon as the vulnerable are all vaccinated. But they shouldn't be making up or manipulating stats or modelling to make this point. As you've shown the 3.5% makes absolutely no sense. If they think we'll need restrictions after the vulnerable are vaccinated (and I'm not trying to advocate we won't) then they should be able with real modelling to show this if it's true and not lie to us. They want us all to keep buying into all this yet they won't be honest with us.

Totally agree. I've been looking and the data available is so hit and miss.
On the covid hub data https://opendata.arcgis.com/datasets/fe9bb23592ec4142a4f4c2c9bd32f749_0.csv, it shows a total of 8516 hospital admissions and 9699 hospital confirmed covid. On the weekly reports, it lists a total of 13313 hospitalized with covid. Anybody any clue what the hospitalization rate actually is?
Another point, it lists a column (SUM_number_of_confirmed_covid_1) it doesn't tie in with daily case numbers, would this be the positive cases confirmed in hospital labs from swabs taken in the public?

Klonker

Dickie10 wrote: »

i dont think there will be much retrictions eased between now and mid june. id say it will be july before hotels/pubs open

I think that's what NPHET will advise. I'm hoping the government will finally grow a backbone and do their jobs and make the decisions they were elected to do. Below is what I think is a balanced reopening but obviously needs to be fleshed out a bit.

April 5th: construction reopen, kids outdoor training, click and collect, golf and tennis allowed back, can meet up to 3 households outside but keep social distancing, change 5km to county boundaries.

Early May: Adult training/team exercise allowed, non essential retail, hairdressers and other services, outdoor dining

Early June: Restaurants indoors, can meet up inside up 2 households or so many in a 10 day period (whichever way would work best), country wide travel

Early July: Pubs open, up to 3 households allowed, gathering of x amounts inside/outside (basically same retrictions as last summer when pubs were opened)

Don't really know after that but can see how things are going. It might not ease any more than that for a while or all could be gone by August, hard to tell at this stage. How things go in the UK will be a good guideline for us.

NH2013

Klonker wrote: »

I think that's what NPHET will advise. I'm hoping the government will finally grow a backbone and do their jobs and make the decisions they were elected to do. Below is what I think is a balanced reopening but obviously needs to be fleshed out a bit.

April 5th: construction reopen, kids outdoor training, click and collect, golf and tennis allowed back, can meet up to 3 households outside but keep social distancing, change 5km to county boundaries.

Early May: Adult training/team exercise allowed, non essential retail, hairdressers and other services, outdoor dining

Early June: Restaurants indoors, can meet up inside up 2 households or so many in a 10 day period (whichever way would work best), country wide travel

Early July: Pubs open, up to 3 households allowed, gathering of x amounts inside/outside (basically same retrictions as last summer when pubs were opened)

Don't really know after that but can see how things are going. It might not ease any more than that for a while or all could be gone by August, hard to tell at this stage. How things go in the UK will be a good guideline for us.

Seems like a fairly sensible pragmatic approach to reopening based on the vaccine schedule and known transmission risks.

SleetAndSnow

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1375933038866137095?s=20

Hmm?

I wonder if this is true, and if so, what do we need to do in return

NH2013

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1375933038866137095?s=20

Hmm?

I wonder if this is true, and if so, what do we need to do in return

Amazing news if true, though of course it is all dependent on when they can be delivered.

If they're going to wait until they've vaccinated their own people first then it's little use to us, as we'll likely also have a surplus of vaccines by then.

However, if they're prepared to give them to us within the next 4-6 weeks that would be a major shot in the arm to our vaccine program, if you'll pardon the pun. :D

ShineOn7

odyssey06 wrote: »

The new variants would muddy the waters of comparisons there, I heard something on the news to the effect triples the chance of hospitalisation even for under 65s but I haven't seen the supporting data on that.

Jaysus if true

Triple?!

We'll need a source on that one

External Association

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Hmm?

I wonder if this is true, and if so, what do we need to do in return

And a United Ireland no doubt!

Cork2021

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1375933038866137095?s=20

Hmm?

I wonder if this is true, and if so, what do we need to do in return

We’d probably need to swear allegiance to BJs gorilla tribe!
But I’ll take whatever they’re offering. If that was relatively soon our adult vaccination programme would be done in the summer with only under 18’s then if needed

bilston

Makes sense all round.

Helps NI lifts its lockdown without fear of a new wave coming from the south which could obviously make its way to GB as well.

Helps get Ireland vaccinated quicker

I'm sure there is a political angle to all of this as well.

ShineOn7

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Jaysus if true

Triple?!

We'll need a source on that one

Could be true but its the negative way of saying something. If there was a one percent chance of something happening for example and you tripled it its now a 3 percent chance which is still very low.

ShineOn7

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1375933038866137095?s=20

Hmm?

I wonder if this is true, and if so, what do we need to do in return

That's massive

If that's true and we get them into people's arms by July, on top of the ramp up already coming, then surely to fúck we'll be all but done by August/September vaccinations wise

Are all the vaccinations flavours spaced out by 12 weeks for the second shot?

Cork2021

ShineOn7 wrote: »

That's massive

If that's true and we get them into people's arms by July, on top of the ramp up already coming, then surely to fúck we'll be all but done by August/September vaccinations wise

Are all the vaccinations flavours spaced out by 12 weeks for the second shot?

Just AZ

Cork2021

TheDoctor wrote: »

Hospital numbers at 8pm

Total 319 (up from 304 last night)
ICU 65 (down from 66 last night)

Last Saturday
Total 350
ICU 83

They really need to start discharging patients on a Saturday and Sunday, it’s silly really that you get bumped up at the weekends and then Monday there’s a big drop and then slows down as you go along

ShineOn7

bilston wrote: »

I'm sure there is a political angle to all of this as well.

Definitely

I saw one UK website (I forget which) say (paraphrasing) "If Bojo gets Britain out of this by Summer, he'll be viewed by us in the same way we look back on Winston Churchill"

:pac:

Ffs

Gas

ShineOn7

Cork2021 wrote: »

Just AZ

What are the wait times for the second shot for the others?

Cheers

Cork2021

ShineOn7 wrote: »

What are the wait times for the second shot for the others?

Cheers

21-28 days after the first shot and then obviously J&J is one shot only

Tredstone.

Smells like bs about the UK giving us vaccines

Isn't it their 2nd time mooting this ?

ShineOn7

TheDoctor wrote: »

Hospital numbers at 8pm

Total 319 (up from 304 last night)

Disappointing rise, we had a nice downward thing going on for a good while

Hopefully just a blip

BlondeBomb

Aren’t the UK set to be behind on the vaccines in April due to shortages?

We won’t see vaccines from the UK before June

JRant

Klonker wrote: »

I'm actually pleasantly surprised that he was questioned on it. Hopefully it's questioned again because it really needs to be.

It should already be a matter of public record IMO. His models and projections should be available to everyone. Having to get answers from that group is like taking a trip to the Oracle of Delphi.

Cork2021

BlondeBomb wrote: »

Aren’t the UK set to be behind on the vaccines in April due to shortages?

We won’t see vaccines from the UK before June

That’s okay though. Imagine the reaction here if we knew there was 3.5 million doses extra Arriving in June

Tredstone.

Cork2021 wrote: »

That’s okay though. Imagine the reaction here if we knew there was 3.5 million doses extra Arriving in June

I'd rather no more promises at this stage

ShineOn7

Cork2021 wrote: »

That’s okay though. Imagine the reaction here if we knew there was 3.5 million doses extra Arriving in June

There was a time there was legitimate talk about no vaccines for 2-3 years

Imagine that timeline! I would genuinely struggle to get out of bed

What Science has achieved with this is nothing short of one of the greatest things mankind has done

noplacehere

Am I reading that right, they say Easter to start giving these? It’s a screenshot. That’s like a week away. That can’t be right

Bobeagleburger

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Disappointing rise, we had a nice downward thing going on for a good while

Hopefully just a blip

Discharges are always low at the weekend. Incredibly, sometimes there isn't the correct person to to discharge the patient. Same every weekend.

Always_Running

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Disappointing rise, we had a nice downward thing going on for a good while

Hopefully just a blip

Would be expected not disappointing.

Monday to Friday are the possible downward days not Saturday and Sunday.