Covid 19 Part XXXIV-249,437 ROI(4,906 deaths) 120,195 NI (2,145 deaths)(01/05)Read OP

Wolf359f

gozunda wrote: »

Not referring to data just on hospitalisations there btw. You had asked about data for 'hospitalisations with underlying conditions' so thats the two links above for those.

The published report linked above - as you saw gives a figure of 63.3% of those in hospital with covid - having an underlying conditions up to and including the 12/12/2020 (Table 1)

The second link details that this figure has altered dramatically with "Almost 75% of all Covid-19 patients in Ireland had no underlying conditions" up to and including the 31st of January 2021.

When I first saw the headline - my first reaction was that there was a mistake. But no reading through the finding of the second report show that there's been a fairly major seachange with regard to the data and those in hospital with covid having no underlying conditions.

The findings on underlying conditions in the first report up to the 12/12/2020 are obviously pre vaccination rollout.

The reported findings of the second report up to 31 January 2021 - cover about a month of the vaccine rollout to a total of approx 200,000 jabs given.

The other notable change between those two periods was the spread of the UK varient here.

Looking at the data - we see that up to the 12/12/2020 approx 37% of those in hospital with covid had no underlying conditions. And yet approx a month and a half later that had risen to 73.1 of those in hospital with covid having no underlying conditions.

(Btw I'm leaving the unknowns aside ftm as potentially they could be used to skew the data either way)

What accounts for this fairly dramatic change?

Looking at the data I can't see how vaccinations up to 31st January 2021 could account for the observed change.

If the other change ie - the UK varient is responsible or at least partially responsible then it would appear that the new varient has increased the number of people of all ages in hospital with covid having no underlying conditions.

That's a worrying outcome imho.

That's only the setting. An asthmatic person breaks their leg and needs to be admitted (I know a broken leg is fixed in A&E), they then test positive to covid. It's registered as a covid positive case in hospital and as they have an underlying condition, it's added to your 63.3%

Likewise, someone in a car crash ends up in hospital, they have a history of hypertension. They contract Covid in Hospital, they now become added to the 63.3%.

The one place you find a high proportion of people with underlying conditions and one place you find covid is treated and spread, is in a hospital. If you vaccinated HCW's and hospital transmission plummets, then you remove all the background 'noise' and see more clearly that people with no underlying conditions need hospital care due to covid. You're talking percentages, which can vary wildly. Without seeing the new report and looking at the absolute number involved, it's hard to make a call.

Israel are in a position where they could potentially have 90% of all patients in hospital/ICU and deaths in the young population. People or the Irish media will scream and shout about it, but when you look at the absolute figures, you will see it could be a couple of people. But as a percent it makes up 90% etc...
Due to vaccinations having worked their magic.

And where did the 73.1% come from, the news paper link states that's from patients (lead to believe patients in hospital) up from 58%, but the 58% from the actual last report is 58% of all cases, not patients.

So has the news paper article got it completely wrong in that 58% of all cases last year had no underlying conditions and now it's 73.1% of all cases have no underlying conditions? Meaning more young people or less older people are getting covid. Or are vaccines having an effect that those with underlying conditions are protected and not testing positive?

caveat emptor

Some light hearted fun about Miami.

https://twitter.com/BillyCorben/status/1376029938776694784?s=20

gozunda

Wolf359f wrote: »

That's only the setting. An asthmatic person breaks their leg and needs to be admitted (I know a broken leg is fixed in A&E), they then test positive to covid. It's registered as a covid positive case in hospital and as they have an underlying condition, it's added to your 63.3%

Likewise, someone in a car crash ends up in hospital, they have a history of hypertension. They contract Covid in Hospital, they now become added to the 63.3%.

The one place you find a high proportion of people with underlying conditions and one place you find covid is treated and spread, is in a hospital. If you vaccinated HCW's and hospital transmission plummets, then you remove all the background 'noise' and see more clearly that people with no underlying conditions need hospital care due to covid. You're talking percentages, which can vary wildly. Without seeing the new report and looking at the absolute number involved, it's hard to make a call.

Israel are in a position where they could potentially have 90% of all patients in hospital/ICU and deaths in the young population. People or the Irish media will scream and shout about it, but when you look at the absolute figures, you will see it could be a couple of people. But as a percent it makes up 90% etc...
Due to vaccinations having worked their magic.

And where did the 73.1% come from, the news paper link states that's from patients (lead to believe patients in hospital) up from 58%, but the 58% from the actual last report is 58% of all cases, not patients.

So has the news paper article got it completely wrong in that 58% of all cases last year had no underlying conditions and now it's 73.1% of all cases have no underlying conditions? Meaning more young people or less older people are getting covid. Or are vaccines having an effect that those with underlying conditions are protected and not testing positive?

The two links detailed are for two separate reports - A. the first report fully published by the hspc covers the period up to 12th December 2020. And B. The newspaper article detailing a second report (not published) which covers the period up to 31st Jan 2021

Of the figures you refer to.

The 73.1% and 58% are from report B.
The 58.1% is from report A. And is a separate figure.

On settings

The relevant 'setting' detailed in Report A is 'acute hospital for "Underlying medical conditions in individuals with confirmed COVID-19"

So we know that - the relevant group are:
A. In an hospital
B. Have an underlying condition
C. Have Covid

And yes there will be a certain proportion of patients who may have a "broken leg" etc with covid and with an underlying condition. It may also be true that such patients may be treated for Covid as well as another condition. But those outliers do not mean rejecting the statistics for that reason alone. With many procedures and regular operations cancelled over the last year - this also reduces further other possible 'noise'.

Report A. also details numbers of those in hospital with Covid, in ICU and who've died and may be useful for the purpose of checking trends and cross referencncing etc.

daydorunrun

caveat emptor wrote: »

Some light hearted fun about Miami.

https://twitter.com/BillyCorben/status/1376029938776694784?s=20

Wow, I could only watch for 60 seconds.....That’s one hour and one minute I lost overnight.

rosiem

CowboyTed wrote: »

Lets look it like this...

83% of the cases today were from 8 Leinster counties and Donegal...

Keep them locked down and let the others have some relief....

Should vaccines be prioritised in these counties to ensure restrictions can be lifted nationwide ?

Golfman64

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/revealed-tight-covid-restrictions-until-may-as-virus-surges-40247322.html


If this leak is to be believed, we are at a very serious and dysfunctional point in both this current governments term and our nations history. While other countries move beyond the sledgehammer approach (some a very long time ago) we continue with a primitive, unimaginative and downright illogical lockdown which is destroying the economy and the lives of so many citizens of Ireland. Are we all really going to continue to allow this catastrophe to unfold, one which we will all be paying for, for a very long time?

It also makes my blood boil how they talk about NPHET and their views on construction. That team needs a complete refresh, as they have shown themselves to be completely incapable of providing any nuanced or alternative solution or advice for over a year now other than Lockdown. They have failed and the government have failed. Our country is heading for economic ruin. The government need to take back control and that needs to happen now.

Golfman64

Golfman64 wrote: »

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/revealed-tight-covid-restrictions-until-may-as-virus-surges-40247322.html


If this leak is to be believed, we are at a very serious and dysfunctional point in both this current governments term and our nations history. While other countries move beyond the sledgehammer approach (some a very long time ago) we continue with a primitive, unimaginative and downright illogical lockdown which is destroying the economy and the lives of so many citizens of Ireland. Are we all really going to continue to allow this catastrophe to unfold, one which we will all be paying for, for a very long time?

6 weeks in between reviews is absolutely crazy!! There is absolutely no need for this long dragging out of easing of restrictions. We are the most pedantic, cautious, fearful, scared and indecisive country in the EU and possible the World at this stage!

Where the hell is our positivity, our desire to live, to be happy? The Government are SO out of touch with how people are feeling!

Widdensushi

rosiem wrote: »

Should vaccines be prioritised in these counties to ensure restrictions can be lifted nationwide ?

Every private school would be vaccinated before the kids are back anyway.

Sweet.Science

[Deleted User] wrote: »

6 weeks in between reviews is absolutely crazy!! There is absolutely no need for this long dragging out of easing of restrictions. We are the most pedantic, cautious, fearful, scared and indecisive country in the EU and possible the World at this stage!

Where the hell is our positivity, our desire to live, to be happy? The Government are SO out of touch with how people are feeling!

Numbers aren't going to be much lower by May .
Sure no harm another 6 weeks into June

ninebeanrows

Golfman64 wrote: »

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/revealed-tight-covid-restrictions-until-may-as-virus-surges-40247322.html


If this leak is to be believed, we are at a very serious and dysfunctional point in both this current governments term and our nations history. While other countries move beyond the sledgehammer approach (some a very long time ago) we continue with a primitive, unimaginative and downright illogical lockdown which is destroying the economy and the lives of so many citizens of Ireland. Are we all really going to continue to allow this catastrophe to unfold, one which we will all be paying for, for a very long time?

It also makes my blood boil how they talk about NPHET and their views on construction. That team needs a complete refresh, as they have shown themselves to be completely incapable of providing any nuanced or alternative solution or advice for over a year now other than Lockdown. They have failed and the government have failed. Our country is heading for economic ruin. The government need to take back control and that needs to happen now.

What an outrageous headline

Where did they come up with the virus surging ?

Feel ashamed I actually clicked on the link, what a rag of a newspaper

is_that_so

ninebeanrows wrote: »

What an outrageous headline

Where did they come up with the virus surging ?

Feel ashamed I actually clicked on the link, what a rag of a newspaper

The non-outrageous version of it is that case numbers are stubbornly refusing to go where NPHET would like them so they may not recommend some things - construction looks like a possible casualty. Otherwise the 5km and some outdoor activities were about the only other considerations and I think they know they need to agree to those.

From a government source quoted in the Indo; "Nphet will look at that and go 'what's the bare minimum necessary to give people a bit of hope and optimism while not really changing anything'. I think it could be 10km,"

We are being taken for fools

Sweet.Science

is_that_so wrote: »

The non-outrageous version of it is that case numbers are stubbornly refusing to go where NPHET would like them so they may not recommend some things - construction looks like a possible casualty. Otherwise the 5km and some outdoor activities were about the only other considerations and I think they know they need to agree to those.

They are never going to go as low as they like . First week in May it will be the same . Around 600 cases a day

is_that_so

Sweet.Science wrote: »

They are never going to go as low as they like . First week in May it will be the same . Around 600 cases a day

They might but with the caveat of a lot more vaccinated, or so the rumour goes!

LessOutragePlz

Why the hell isn't a regional approach being taken or even suggested?

There's been 16 cases in Leitrim in the last 2 weeks, 100 in roscommon and 86 in Cavan.

Complete madness that those counties currently have the same restrictions as everywhere else.

"There have been no new cases of Covid-19 identified in Leitrim in the 24 hours to midnight on March 25. This leaves the two week total of cases for the county at 16.

In Roscommon there have been 10 new cases of the virus with 100 in the last fortnight, while in Cavan there are 10 new cases of Covid-19 with 86 in the last two weeks."

https://www.leitrimobserver.ie/news/newsletter-leitrimobserver/620444/no-new-cases-of-covid-19-for-leitrim.html

Sweet.Science

is_that_so wrote: »

They might but with the caveat of a lot more vaccinated, or so the rumour goes!

That's true . I don't think it will hold as much weight as we think though . It won't be enough . Still too much of the virus in the community . Might get construction back by then . What's left of it .

Klonker

gozunda wrote: »

Not referring to data just on hospitalisations there btw. You had asked about data for 'hospitalisations with underlying conditions' so thats the two links above for those.

The published report linked above - as you saw gives a figure of 63.3% of those in hospital with covid - having an underlying condition up to and including the 12/12/2020 (Table 1)

The second link details that this figure has altered dramatically with "Almost 75% of all Covid-19 patients in Ireland had no underlying conditions" up to and including the 31st of January 2021.

When I first saw the headline - my first reaction was that there was a mistake. But no reading through the finding of the second report show that there's been a fairly major seachange with regard to the data and those in hospital with covid having no underlying conditions.

The findings on underlying conditions in the first report up to the 12/12/2020 are obviously pre vaccination rollout.

The reported findings of the second report up to 31 January 2021 - cover about a month of the vaccine rollout to a total of approx 200,000 jabs given.

The other notable change between those two periods was the spread of the UK varient here.

Looking at the data - we see that up to the 12/12/2020 approx 37% of those in hospital with covid had no underlying conditions. And yet approx a month and a half later that had risen to 73.1% of those in hospital with covid having no underlying condition.

(Btw I'm leaving the unknowns aside ftm as potentially they could be used to skew the data either way)

What accounts for this fairly dramatic change?

Looking at the data I can't see how vaccinations up to 31st January 2021 could account for the observed change.

If the other change ie - the UK varient is responsible or at least partially responsible then it would appear that the new varient has increased the number of people of all ages in hospital with covid having no underlying conditions.

That's a worrying possible outcome imho.

I'm not trying to be argumentative here incase that's the way it's coming across. I'm just trying to understand the data. That Irish Examiner figures seems strange in many ways. The flip from no underlying conditions as a percentage from 36.7% at mid December to 73.1% at the end of January is highly improbable. As you said the vaccines couldn't have been making a noticeable difference by the end of January. So that only leave the new variant as the only difference. If the new variant was this much more dangerous we'd be hearing a lot more about it than unclear articles like this, NPHET would be sure to let us know fairly quickly to back it up.

The funny thing about the article is it say 'covid patients' but doesn't say covid hospitalisations. The journalist seems to be suggesting it's hospitalisation but they could be confused and getting it mixed il themselves. The other thing is how has the Irish Examiner gotten some kind of updated HSPC report that as far as any of us can see is not in the public domain.

I'd be highly suspect of the figures quoted in that article until I see the HSPC report it's based on.

SleetAndSnow

10km.. yeah that's really going to help.

Ridiculous that a regional based approach isn't even being considered.

KrustyUCC

The government are storing up another housing bubble crisis by not opening up construction

We're the only country in Europe with construction closed

That's going to impact on houses built and supply

Lot of people have savings for mortgages

House prices only going to go one way

The HorsesMouth

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

10km.. yeah that's really going to help.

Ridiculous that a regional based approach isn't even being considered.

I think it's fairly obvious what they are at. Let's kite fly 10km/15km, everyone gets outraged and then Tuesday we announce that any travel restriction is completely abolished and we look great.

KrustyUCC

Golfman64 wrote: »

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/revealed-tight-covid-restrictions-until-may-as-virus-surges-40247322.html


If this leak is to be believed, we are at a very serious and dysfunctional point in both this current governments term and our nations history. While other countries move beyond the sledgehammer approach (some a very long time ago) we continue with a primitive, unimaginative and downright illogical lockdown which is destroying the economy and the lives of so many citizens of Ireland. Are we all really going to continue to allow this catastrophe to unfold, one which we will all be paying for, for a very long time?

It also makes my blood boil how they talk about NPHET and their views on construction. That team needs a complete refresh, as they have shown themselves to be completely incapable of providing any nuanced or alternative solution or advice for over a year now other than Lockdown. They have failed and the government have failed. Our country is heading for economic ruin. The government need to take back control and that needs to happen now.

Have to laugh at this part

"A senior government source acknowledged last night that although no final decision has been made, the Taoiseach could be able to announce a broad outline of what may be possible in May and June in terms of the reopening of non-essential retail and then the hospitality industry for outdoors.

But there are unlikely to be firm commitments or dates given to the public"

So still no plan seeing as they won't provide dates and they won't provide the metric needed either

Pie in the sky stuff

Klonker

Deleted User wrote: »

From a government source quoted in the Indo; "Nphet will look at that and go 'what's the bare minimum necessary to give people a bit of hope and optimism while not really changing anything'. I think it could be 10km,"

We are being taken for fools

That quote sums it up. NPHET don't want any relaxations at all until July at the earliest.

It's the government's fault though, the are absolute cowards. Absolutely terrified to go against the health advise in anyway.

rosiem

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

:D:D:D

Good one!


:D:D:D

So it’s ok to lock these counties down with more serious restrictions than the rest of the country but in your opinion stupid to prioritise hotspots for vaccinations perhaps instead of childish memes and emojis you could actually give your reasoning behind that

stephenjmcd

Every newspaper says something different all from "government sources".

Don't take any of them as gospel, no point in people getting themselves worked up over them.

CruelSummer

Let’s be honest, the government approach has pushed everything underground.
- 5k not being followed
- Hairdressers and other personal services on black market
- house visits as people don’t want to be seen meeting outside, saw a Garda car parked up on a Main Street Friday watching people...seriously.
- Family meeting indoors as people don’t want another month to pass without seeing them, but don’t want the Gardai called by people doing their ‘public duty’ complaining about them

The revolving door of who to blame next continues, with our gullible population still playing along.
Honestly after 12 months of this, I thought the penny might drop.

funnydoggy

The Independent is a total rag of a paper. It may be right or wrong, we just have to wait and see.

Natterjack from Kerry

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

10km.. yeah that's really going to help.

Ridiculous that a regional based approach isn't even being considered.

The 10km is important because its facilitates the reopening of golf and tennis, which are the real only relaxations for April. While some will still not be able to get to their clubs, the 10km will allow a lot of people get to play those sports. The 10km is only for exercise so wont really affect anyone else, and if it werent for golf, I dont think they'd be going for the extension to 10km.

alentejo

Lets just keep Level 5 until 2023....should be ok then. Might just change the 5k to 6k just to keep sprites up

Eod100

https://twitter.com/COVID19DataIE/status/1376114850322059269?s=19

funnydoggy

Flying it. Clear sign of a ramp up:)