Covid 19 Part XXXIV-249,437 ROI(4,906 deaths) 120,195 NI (2,145 deaths)(01/05)Read OP

Sweet.Science

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

The question is is 600 an acceptable level of infection. I fear any real reopening will see 2000 cases in a couple fof weeks.

600 is the level that we could reopen but I feel we would be closing very quickly afterwards.

I've long felt 50 Icu cases is a place to consider reopening but we aren't far from there either.

We could be looking at less than 50 in ICU within 10 days

Turtwig

RGS wrote: »

A regional opening of certain retail is a good idea but as USUAL NPHET have set their face against. The appear unable to look beyond full lockdown. They havent even approved antigen testing yet.

Antigen testing is available in some hospitals with months now. They just opt not to use it. Where do you want it deployed that PCR can't work as effectively? PCR is actually fairly rapid and reliable in this country.

CIARAN_BOYLE

Turtwig wrote: »

Antigen testing is available in some hospitals with months now. They just opt not to use it. Where do you want it deployed that PCR can't work as effectively? PCR is actually fairly rapid and reliable in this country.

The psychological argument regarding antigen testing is ignored by many people.

If a negative test (with a high false negative risk) wouldn't change behaviour I think antigen testing would be great. Pick a week a test the entire population of Offaly. Find all the cases and drive things down.

I strongly believe NPHET have read human behaviour right with antigen testing and are right not to roll it out en masse.

shinzon

Foreign Affairs Minister @simoncoveney says there is very narrow scope for lifting restrictions. Tells @thisweekrte the Government approach will be cautious. But he acknowledges that people need room to breathe on the 5km rule, some meeting outdoors + construction if it can be safe.

Shin

manofwisdom

shinzon wrote: »

Foreign Affairs Minister @simoncoveney says there is very narrow scope for lifting restrictions. Tells @thisweekrte the Government approach will be cautious. But he acknowledges that people need room to breathe on the 5km rule, some meeting outdoors + construction if it can be safe.

Shin

News that was basically said by Michael Martin at the end of February.

Str8outtaWuhan

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Apparently the swab is too traumatic for the little ones.

There's a paper a friend of mine showed me ages ago about nasal swabs in children. It was written about flu swabs back about 10 years ago. Apparently some children don't have the reflex control adults are expected to have and are prone to jerking movments in response to the swab which can be a bad thing if the swab is deep in the nose.

So potentially we are losing a rake of positive cases as children are not tested to the same rigour as adults?

Sanjuro

Had to get the 4 year old a covid test today. Have to say, I'm incredibly impressed with the people working at the test centre. They were all lovely and friendly, despite working in some incredibly awful weather. Very efficient, through the whole process in 15 minutes. Hopefully a negative, but man, these front line workers are absolutely brilliant.

odyssey06

Str8outtaWuhan wrote: »

So potentially we are losing a rake of positive cases as children are not tested to the same rigour as adults?

Interesting point, also children's immune response is so strong their window for a positive test is much narrower than adults. They could have been exposed, had a narrow window of infectiousness, infected someone else, cleared it from their system... and then test negative (ref: Prof Luke O'Neill on how quickly they clear covid from their system)

gozunda

jackboy wrote: »

In an outdoor setting that is the the only significant chance of getting infected. Covid spreads indoors when lots of people mix in a small area without wearing masks. Other ways of virus spread are not significant.

Studies and investigations of outbreaks all point to the majority of transmissions occurring as a result of infected people spewing out large droplets and small particles called aerosols when they cough, talk or breathe. These can be directly inhaled by people close by. And yes the risk is greater indoors than outdoors.

However when restrictions are rolled back - we're talking about people travelling together and congregating together in close contact and close proximity with other people from elsewhere in order to engage in recreational activities

Currently we have areas of high and low infection around the country. Knowing what we know about how Covid spreads- if we roll back restrictions too early and increased numbers of people start moving between these areas will most likley result in infection increasing to all areas. Thats about it.

jackboy

gozunda wrote: »

Studies and investigations of outbreaks all point to the majority of transmissions occurring as a result of infected people spewing out large droplets and small particles called aerosols when they cough, talk or breathe. These can be directly inhaled by people close by. And yes the risk is greater indoors than outdoors.

However when restrictions are rolled back - we're talking about people travelling together and congregating together in close contact and close proximity with other people from elsewhere in order to engage in recreational activities.

That is only a significant issue if they are congregating indoors. Recreational activities outdoors are such a minor risk that they are not worth considering. The restrictions preventing movements of people are a distraction and actually counterproductive.

landofthetree

Its level 4 at best till everyone is vaccinated.

15% of people who catch covid in the age 20-44 age group need hospitalization in the USA
20% in the 44-64 age group need hospitalization in the US.


https://www.statista.com/statistics/1122354/covid-19-us-hospital-rate-by-age/

No way our health service can cope with level 3 with the British variant.

spookwoman

covidrelease

jackboy wrote: »

That is only a significant issue if they are congregating indoors. Recreational activities outdoors are such a minor risk that they are not worth considering. The restrictions preventing movements of people are a distraction and actually counterproductive.

There was an incident last summer when 100000 people arrived at Bournemouth beach and no significant spike in cases was found.

It is ridiculous scaremongering from the covideers, the message needs to be to meet up outdoors only, and in limited numbers, say 15 or 20 or whatever.

Happydays2020

jackboy wrote: »

That is only a significant issue if they are congregating indoors. Recreational activities outdoors are such a minor risk that they are not worth considering. The restrictions preventing movements of people are a distraction and actually counterproductive.

Agree. People are finding ways to get around the current restrictions. Fresh air and opening things like non essential retail will do wonders for the middle and not increase the risk too much. Will probably be after May weekend for non essential though.

oceanman

they should just open up for while and let us have a meaningful easter...we deserve it:pac:

Jim_Hodge

landofthetree wrote: »

Its level 4 at best till everyone is vaccinated.

15% of people who catch covid in the age 20-44 age group need hospitalization in the USA
20% in the 44-64 age group need hospitalization in the US.


https://www.statista.com/statistics/1122354/covid-19-us-hospital-rate-by-age/

No way our health service can cope with level 3 with the British variant.

I wouldn't project for Ireland based on US figures as they have much higher obesity issues in the younger population and more underlying health issues.

hynesie08

oceanman wrote: »

they should just open up for while and let us have a meaningful easter...we deserve it:pac:

Even jesus had a good Easter Sunday, and he was dead....

Widdensushi

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

I wouldn't project for Ireland based on US figures as they have much higher obesity issues in the younger population and more underlying health issues.

And the percentage is based on cases found, I thought there was a good percentage of the US population antivax and unlikely to go for tests unless seriously ill.

landofthetree

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

I wouldn't project for Ireland based on US figures as they have much higher obesity issues in the younger population and more underlying health issues.

Even if it was 10% for Ireland we still couldnt cope.

Multipass

landofthetree wrote: »

Its level 4 at best till everyone is vaccinated.

15% of people who catch covid in the age 20-44 age group need hospitalization in the USA
20% in the 44-64 age group need hospitalization in the US.


https://www.statista.com/statistics/1122354/covid-19-us-hospital-rate-by-age/

No way our health service can cope with level 3 with the British variant.

Hospitalisation could mean as little as a nurse monitoring blood oxygen now and then. Our health service can cope, they can go back to the original plans for overflow that they made last year. Cheaper to do that than extending lockdown. Besides having everyone vaccinated isn’t ever going to happen.

TheDoctor

hynesie08 wrote: »

Even jesus had a good Easter Sunday, and he was dead....

NPHET advising against Jesus making the unnecessary journey of rising from the dead this Easter.

iamwhoiam

TheDoctor wrote: »

NPHET advising against Jesus making the unnecessary journey of rising from the dead this Easter.

It would be very concerning

FFVII

Killer virus

Jim_Hodge

landofthetree wrote: »

Even if it was 10% for Ireland we still couldnt cope.

Still not even close. Your percentages are way out of line.

gozunda

gozunda wrote: »

Studies and investigations of outbreaks all point to the majority of transmissions occurring as a result of infected people spewing out large droplets and small particles called aerosols when they cough, talk or breathe. These can be directly inhaled by people close by. And yes the risk is greater indoors than outdoors.

However when restrictions are rolled back - we're talking about people travelling together and congregating together in close contact and close proximity with other people from elsewhere in order to engage in recreational activities

Currently we have areas of high and low infection around the country. Knowing what we know about how Covid spreads- if we roll back restrictions too early and increased numbers of people start moving between these areas will most likley result in infection increasing to all areas. Thats about it.

None of the protests over the last months, including BLM we’re spreading events. Neither here nor in the UK. Hardly anyone wore masks and there would have been plenty of shouting while tightly packed together

Outside is simply not an issue. Only those pushing an agenda for further lockdown would ignore the evidence and say otherwise.

gozunda

covidrelease wrote: »

There was an incident last summer when 100000 people arrived at Bournemouth beach and no significant spike in cases was found.

It is ridiculous scaremongering from the covideers, the message needs to be to meet up outdoors only, and in limited numbers, say 15 or 20 or whatever.

What in pejorative speak are "covideers" btw? Sounds like something that kids would come up with tbh.


Anyway I think that came up previously

I still wonder why the UK government decided to go with restrictions on large groups outdoors - considering that Professor Mark Woolhouse (who undertook that study about Bournemouth) sits on the government’s SPI-M committee?

Again I don't think anyone is arguing that its outside itself which is the issue rather the propensity of people mixing from different areas with different levels of infection etc, travelling together and congregating together in close contact and close proximity with other people from elsewhere in order to engage in recreational activities and often with disregard to social distances

The other issue is that the situation has changed with regard to the virus itself- with authorities in the UK suggesting the UK variant is up to 70% more transmissible.

Interestingly Professor Mark Woolhouse also believes that schools don't contribute to a surge in Covid case

paddyisreal

gozunda wrote: »

All public toilets are closed really? The park in my local Town has public toilets which are still open. Afaik some places installed temporary toilets after cafes and restaurants closed last year. Perhaps I should tell them?

But yes any - anywhere where crowds of people travelling for recreation purposes tend to congregate . Whether that's motorway service stations, pumps and places for takeaway food and refreshments. And no supermarkets are not in that category as they are essential and are generally managed well.

We're talking large crowds - not from the local areas but from multiple counties whose all decamp to one or more popular beauty spots or wherever. Where there's maybe just one block of toilets, chip van and everyone from all over mixing, mingling and generally not engaging with social distancing guidelines

Tbf - the main ones I find who have issues with exercising within 5km seem to be those who dont believe that covid is a real problem or at least dont seem to understand the seriousness of the issues.

Tell me this - if the stay at home/ stay local restrictions (what the 5km are ) are a "joke" then why have so many countries used these type of restrictions and continue to use them as part of managing the rate of covid infection?

Perhaps all of them are simply "idiots ... running the show"?

Did I say public toilets? restaurants, pubs etc all closed so the amount of toilet facilities has been reduced by 90 percent so according to your theory everyone is going to q up at public toilets in scenic spots if the 5k is relaxed? Really? Have you seen the crowds in the phoenix park because of the 5k? you also seem to have a problem with chip fans and mingling outside? Again have you seen the phoenix pakr because of the 5k? you do know outside is better than inside.

Also the 5k is a joke, the idiots running the show applied a rule used by other larger countries with large urban areas and applied it across the boards to one of the most rural countries there is. The 5k rule might be need in certain areas but it sure as hell isn't needed in connemara. No one in rural Ireland is paying a blind bit of notice to it anymore, it is a ridiculous rule.

Also anyone thinking exercising within 5k is going to stop the virus spreading should have a good word with themselves.!

Turtwig

Deleted User wrote: »

None of the protests over the last months, including BLM we’re spreading events. Neither here nor in the UK. Hardly anyone wore masks and there would have been plenty of shouting while tightly packed together

Outside is simply not an issue. Only those pushing an agenda for further lockdown would ignore the evidence and say otherwise.

There is actually little published evidence either way to quantify the risk of outdoors transmissions. (Least that I'm aware of.) It's an assumption that these large protests events didn't contribute to spread. Both countries have such inadequate tracing and surveillance systems that we can't really tell if they did or not.

I'm assuming they didn't. That's not evidence though that's just an assumption.

Wolf359f

landofthetree wrote: »

Its level 4 at best till everyone is vaccinated.

15% of people who catch covid in the age 20-44 age group need hospitalization in the USA
20% in the 44-64 age group need hospitalization in the US.


https://www.statista.com/statistics/1122354/covid-19-us-hospital-rate-by-age/

No way our health service can cope with level 3 with the British variant.

You can't compare the hospitalisation rate between countries. It's all mainly down to testing and positivity rate.
During the first wave, we had about 10% hospitalized (it's was about 3% at the peak of the 3rd wave)
The UK's first wave had peaked at a 64% hospitaliisation rate vs ~9% in their 3rd wave.

gozunda

paddyisreal wrote: »

Did I say public toilets? restaurants, pubs etc all closed so the amount of toilet facilities has been reduced by 90 percent so according to your theory everyone is going to q up at public toilets in scenic spots if the 5k is relaxed? Really? Have you seen the crowds in the phoenix park because of the 5k? you also seem to have a problem with chip fans and mingling outside? Again have you seen the phoenix pakr because of the 5k? you do know outside is better than inside.

Also the 5k is a joke, the idiots running the show applied a rule used by other larger countries with large urban areas and applied it across the boards to one of the most rural countries there is. The 5k rule might be need in certain areas but it sure as hell isn't needed in connemara. No one in rural Ireland is paying a blind bit of notice to it anymore, it is a ridiculous rule.

Also anyone thinking exercising within 5k is going to stop the virus spreading should have a good word with themselves.!

What other types of toilets would I be referring to and available in an outdoor setting? And I was asked for examples of the type of things people in crowds congregate at. No idea why you're losing the plot over that. They're simply examples.

But again were not talking about the situation now. Were looking at when restrictions are rolled back. And no thats not "my theory". I reckon you're not reading the comments at all.

Of interest you appear to consider all those "running the show" "idiot's" perhaps a good idea to offer your services so that they may become wiser?

And yes I live in rural Ireland and the absolute majority of people here are observing the 5km rule for exercise in my experience.

Its not rocket science btw. The stay at home / exercise locally idea wbich has been used in many countries including the UK is that travel is kept to a minimum to keep the rate of infection down right across the country. Its a simple one and it works.