Covid 19 Part XXXIV-249,437 ROI(4,906 deaths) 120,195 NI (2,145 deaths)(01/05)Read OP

shtpEdthePlum

Brisbane in lockdown again after 4 cases of community transmission were detected.

https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/nationals-mp-harassed-in-parliament-20210329-p57eta

Allegedly for three days.

Wolf359f

manofwisdom wrote: »

And 600 cases now would be 300 or less this time last year going by the difference in testing.

Well if we go by hospital admissions, because they are more reliable:
April 2020: 34 admissions per day average (average daily cases: 503)
March 2021: 22 admissions per day average (average daily cases: 538)
So 600 cases today would see the same number hospitalized as 388 cases last April.

Wolf359f

covidrelease wrote: »

Are you telling me the lockdown in Ireland today is exactly the same as 12 months ago?

Sorry I misread that as countries and not counties! My bad.
The discrepancy between counties is vast and can't be explained by the UK variant.
As some posted before, take out 5/6 counties and we're doing a **** load better.
And not tiny counties, the likes of Cork etc...

paddyisreal

gozunda wrote: »

Where's Ireland mentioned in any of that comment? And its both Ireland and the UK both have a variation on these restrictions. It was also listed as an example of a country where such restrictions are in place. And is simply a statement of fact that they do have "stay at home / exercise locally" restrictions. And that they are being policed

https://www.heart.co.uk/news/coronavirus/lockdown-sit-park-benches-priti-patel/

https://metro.co.uk/2021/01/07/covid-priti-patel-warns-people-sat-on-park-benches-will-be-moved-on-13864907/

Tbf if you do want to go down the comparison route- Norway, Denmark, Iceland ? Like Ireland? Erm I'd say there just as different as the UK to be fair.

Norway, Denmark, Iceland don't have the 5k rule or anything like it so when you compare countries of similar demographics to ourselves we are out of our own

gozunda

gozunda wrote: »

January 2021 is historical? Has the UK government changed or Boris has been replaced or maybe a change in policy on the restrictions detailed in that article. If there has been Link please

Btw I linked this one as well. Is it also "historical"?

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/health-coronavirus-uk-variant/

You link to an single article in January 2021, and neglect to mention that the police had to apologise afterwards to the women for their heavy handed approach, after being crucified on social media and criticised by their own government

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-england-derbyshire-55625062

And, yes, park benches have not been taped up since the end of lockdown one last year

And there has been a complete change in policing, even if the ‘stay at home’ ruling theoretically remains in place (albeit there is no limit laid down in law for travel distance to exercise)

As for the Reuters article. All very interesting, and no-one denies the late 2020 surge, but case rates in Ireland and the UK now, despite an increased level of mobility and mixing and schools, no longer support this ongoing narrative of the dangers of this super transmissible UK variant.

covidrelease

Wolf359f wrote: »

Sorry I misread that as countries and not counties! My bad.
The discrepancy between counties is vast and can't be explained by the UK variant.
As some posted before, take out 5/6 counties and we're doing a **** load better.
And not tiny counties, the likes of Cork etc...

Our rural country throws up erratic numbers. Monaghan was the highest back in February but is almost covid free now.

Wolf359f

HSE 8pm Report out

In Hospital: 328 (+9)
In ICU: 68 (+3) with 2 deaths.

This time last week:
In Hospital: 366
In ICU: 80

Wolf359f

covidrelease wrote: »

Our rural country throws up erratic numbers. Monaghan was the highest back in February but is almost covid free now.

Yeah, Offaly taking that crown now.
Monaghan doing better than Leitrim now, that says ALOT!

gozunda

covidrelease wrote: »

You are claiming UK restrictions are being policed, then post links to several months ago, which is past tense.

Any links to police actions in relation to restrictions this past week?

Well an article from January is not historical as you claimed is it?

The same article which details the UKs governments statement on the policing of UK restrictions including parking benches and other things.

And yeah relevant to the point made.

"This past week"! Sure that's "past tense" as well. We couldn't be having that!

Heres one from the past 48 hours or do you think that's too old?

https://www.echo-news.co.uk/news/19190658.7-reasons-people-broke-lockdown-rules-south-essex/

Any links showing that there's absolutely no police actions in relation to restrictions this past week? Google is your friend btw.

Btw I have question for you.

covidrelease wrote: »

How sure can you be? It emerged at the worst possible point in the cycle, short days, cold weather, public apathy, Christmas gatherings, christmas dinner etc. etc.

If it never existed we may have been in the exact same position. Christmas was always going to be a **** show.

So is it that you're saying its part of a conspiracy or?

prunudo

7 day numbers show 130 odd more cases from 20,000 more tests, 5 day averages being used but Wed to Sun are always higher anyway, hospital cases going up but its weekend so no discharges, constant referencing the new variant even though its been here for over 3 months.
Do nphet and the media really take us for fools on a Monday morning as they try and spin the worst angle about our current situation while they try to justify opening up the bare minimum next week.

Wanderer78

prunudo wrote:

7 day numbers show 130 odd more cases from 20,000 more tests, 5 day averages being used but Wed to Sun are always higher anyway, hospital cases going up but its weekend so no discharges, constant referencing the new variant even though its been here for over 3 months. Do nphet and the media really take us for fools on a Monday morning as they try and spin the worst angle about our current situation while they try to justify opening up the bare minimum next week.

Nobody is trying to fool you

prunudo

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Nobody is trying to fool you

Well why are they trying to paint a picture of things being far worse than they are.

Wanderer78

prunudo wrote:

Well why are they trying to paint a picture of things being far worse than they are.

Because their opinion doesn't match your opinion

prunudo

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Because their opinion doesn't match your opinion

Going by what I've witnessed over the last few weeks, there are many others that don't share nphets opinion either.

Rosita

Wolf359f wrote: »

Maybe if we didn't have the UK variant we would be well under 600 cases per day?

prunudo wrote: »

Going by what I've witnessed over the last few weeks, there are many others that don't share nphets opinion either.

To be fair I wouldn't assume the tendency to breach restrictions to be the product of deep research and thought on the virus and its potential spread before deciding they "don't share" NPHET's views. Some people just think that they are beyond the law. That has happened in Germany and lots of other countries too.

prunudo

Rosita wrote: »

To be fair I wouldn't assume the tendency to breach restrictions to be the product of deep research and thought on the virus and its potential spread before deciding they "don't share" NPHET's views. Some people just think that they are beyond the law. That has happened in Germany and lots of other countries too.

Wouldn't say the people I've observed think they're above the law, they've just done their own risk assessment and now doing activities which are lower risk.
Though there will always a minority alright who don't care and will continue to meet indoors in groups, I think most people are now viewing the current situation with less risk than nphet, but that wouldn't be hard in fairness.

caveat emptor

5 of the 8 age groups in the reports have had increasing cases over the past week. Initially it was younger cohorts but now it's every age group below 45 is increasing.

Easter holidays will put a dampener on it but if restrictions not followed there's enough of a critical mass across all demographics for it to rise very quickly.

TheDoctor

Wolf359f wrote: »

HSE 8pm Report out

In Hospital: 328 (+9)
In ICU: 68 (+3) with 2 deaths.

This time last week:
In Hospital: 366
In ICU: 80

A much smaller weekend "increase" than recent weekends.

Could breakthrough 300 Tuesday/Wednesday.

Doctor Jimbob

TheDoctor wrote: »

A much smaller weekend "increase" than recent weekends.

Could breakthrough 300 Tuesday/Wednesday.

Less of that positive spin, don't you know we're experiencing a surge and NPHET are very concerned?

TheDoctor

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Less of that positive spin, don't you know we're experiencing a surge and NPHET are very concerned?

Deeply concerned.

Jim_Hodge

covidrelease wrote: »

NPHET are saying social mixing has increased a lot in recent weeks, yet this highly transmissible UK variant is making no inroads.

You keep saying that but the fact remains that we went through months of level 5 to end up on 600 cases a day.

You can keep playing it down all you like but the figures are higher than they should be.

Rosita

prunudo wrote: »

I think most people are now viewing the current situation with less risk than nphet, but that wouldn't be hard in fairness.

Yeah, I suppose the difference is that if there's another surge it'll NPHET rather than the anonymous person who breaches restrictions who'll get the flak. Inevitably that'll govern behaviour.

celt262

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

You keep saying that but the fact remains that we went through months of level 5 to end up on 600 cases a day.

You can keep playing it down all you like but the figures are higher than they should be.

Its the varient.

covidrelease

celt262 wrote: »

Its the varient.

Source?

CIARAN_BOYLE

If we can only keep a steady state with level 5 restrictions what hope do we have if we open anything.

I can see some low risk opening hoping to divert activity outside but not more than that.

covidrelease

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

You keep saying that but the fact remains that we went through months of level 5 to end up on 600 cases a day.

You can keep playing it down all you like but the figures are higher than they should be.

In reality we are not in Level 5 at the moment though, an awful lot of things are operating secretly.

We started January in level 5 for sure but it's not there in reality now.

Stheno

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

If we can only keep a steady state with level 5 restrictions what hope do we have if we open anything.

I can see some low risk opening hoping to divert activity outside but not more than that.

Vaccines?

stephenjmcd

14 day EPI report

https://twitter.com/hpscireland/status/1376451440835764225?s=19

podgeandrodge

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

You keep saying that but the fact remains that we went through months of level 5 to end up on 600 cases a day.

You can keep playing it down all you like but the figures are higher than they should be.

Has the testing gone up much i.e. sufficient to justify the increase in cases? If positivity staying low (i.e. just over 3%?) is the increase in cases a result of increased testing?

If they tested 1m people tomorrow we'd have 30k cases no? Or am I getting this all wrong?

Or, do increased cases inevitably lead to increased hospitalisations if they are only arising out of increased testing? Hospitalisations are occuring regardless of case numbers as case numbers are only a metric from testing, if you know what I am trying to say.

CIARAN_BOYLE

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Has the testing gone up much i.e. sufficient to justify the increase in cases? If positivity staying low (i.e. just over 3%?) is the increase in cases a result of increased testing?

If they tested 1m people tomorrow we'd have 30k cases no? Or am I getting this all wrong?

If we tested 1 million people the positivity would go down. We have increased testing (including walk in test centres). As nolan said on Thursday its hard to know whether cases are increasing or plateauing with increased detection.

For example the positivity in the walk in testing centres was around 1% on day 1 and they are new.

Stheno wrote: »

Vaccines?

Apologies statement corrected

If we can only keep a steady state with level 5 restrictions what hope do we have if we open anything until a sufficient bulk of the population is vaccinated.