Covid 19 Part XXXIV-249,437 ROI(4,906 deaths) 120,195 NI (2,145 deaths)(01/05)Read OP

Doctor Jimbob

is_that_so wrote: »

Yeah, it's likely to be the case. Be grateful there is finally tacit recognition of issues around continued compliance and people's frustrations. Of more importance is what the overall structure of the rest of the plan is like.

I'm finding it increasingly hard to be grateful after 3 months and counting of "ah sure, we'll see next month" TBH.

is_that_so

Some comments from Niamh O'Beirne , HSE Lead for Testing and Tracing, on current cases - social interaction. Also talks about testing plans in April.

Ms O'Beirne said currently around 20% of people come under a community transmission category and do not know where they might have contracted the virus.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0329/1206691-coronavirus-ireland-latest/

Accidentally

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Christ.

They can announce 10k if they want, but it's just going to lead to more people ignoring them. It's fairly obvious that people are moving on with their lives, and will continue to do so with or without NPHET or the government.

Rosita

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Funny the Covid plan has 5km or countywide travel so they're making their own plan redundant at the first opportunity again

This is an important point. Almost from the point that the government launched the various Levels 1-5 they were somewhere between smudged and irrelevant. It should inform people desperately looking for a "roadmap" - any such thing would be a shot in the dark which would be just another target for criticism from those who'd study every syllable.

is_that_so

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

I'm finding it increasingly hard to be grateful after 3 months and counting of "ah sure, we'll see next month" TBH.

It's anxiety and data over human need for NPHET. I understand that but we are definitely at a point where we need a better vision from the government. Like others hearing more anecdotal stuff about people just not bothering any more.

Multipass

Accidentally wrote: »

They can announce 10k if they want, but it's just going to lead to more people ignoring them. It's fairly obvious that people are moving on with their lives, and will continue to do so with or without NPHET or the government.

All of this agonising over 5, 10, 20.78km is just amusing now. The fact that anyone still takes it seriously is bizarre, and good luck to them.

Sweet.Science

Can someone answer this I'm sure there must be a logical explanation

Why have walk in testing centres been set up now ? And not last year ?

gozunda

[Deleted User] wrote: »

You link to an single article in January 2021, and neglect to mention that the police had to apologise afterwards to the women for their heavy handed approach, after being crucified on social media and criticised by their own government
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-england-derbyshire-55625062And, yes, park benches have not been taped up since the end of lockdown one last year. And there has been a complete change in policing, even if the ‘stay at home’ ruling theoretically remains in place (albeit there is no limit laid down in law for travel distance to exercise)

As for the Reuters article. All very interesting, and no-one denies the late 2020 surge, but case rates in Ireland and the UK now, despite an increased level of mobility and mixing and schools, no longer support this ongoing narrative of the dangers of this super transmissible UK variant.

Incorrect.

I linked to two articles from January detailing the UKs governments statement on the policing of UK restrictions including parking benches (which you pooh poohed etc) and other things.

Any outcome of the previous story regarding the ladies which you came up with - is largely irrelevant. It still shows the type of policing which has occurred to date in the UK.

As for the reuters article it clearly details the evolution and spread of the B.1.1.7 variant in the UK - the one you referred to as "Ah yes, the UK variant.....that old chestnut"

This is what the Reuters article said about that "old chestnut"

the new variant quickly spread from Kent across London and southern England, going from an estimated 3% of cases in England at the end of October to 96% at the start of February. The surge pushed Britain’s Covid death toll into six figures; it now stands at 126,000. Two-thirds of those deaths have occurred since Sept. 20, when the variant was first detected. 

The article also details that in the  race between vaccines and variant - "Britain is now emerging piecemeal from a three-month lockdown that, alongside a fast-moving vaccination programme"

Quick question here. You keep making claims that there's little policing of restrictions in the UK, that's there's been a complete seachange in policing, etc etc etc

And all that without a single article or link to back any of that up. Now if you don't want to provide links that's fine btw but criticising those who do is a bit rich tbh.

Now ok if you're relying on your own experiences but as you've said you've been decamping between Ireland and Spain all the while and only planning on heading to the UK once Spain removes its travel ban to the UK. However generally second or third hand anecdotes don't really work on an anonymous Internet forum tbf.

Thats about it.

Nothing of significance will change come April 5.

We'll be thrown a token handful of crumbs whilst being asked to be grateful for everything we are given.

is_that_so

Sweet.Science wrote: »

Can someone answer this I'm sure there must be a logical explanation

Why have walk in testing centres been set up now ? And not last year ?

Last year the virus worked in a fairly predictable way , both up and down. Cases since the New Year have been stubbornly high in some places. The walk-ins are an effort to try to figure out why. Originally they are for a week or so, but if they are seen to be useful that may be a lot longer, maybe a permanent tool, and in more more locations.

Dubh Geannain

One of my work colleagues got a private PCR test at the weekend and tested positive. He started self isolating in his home and waited for the contact tracers to get in touch. No word so he followed himself up to find out he needs to get the HSE test too, as his positive won't be registered by them otherwise.

I'm sure that anecdote has been recounted numerous times at this stage but I stopped following the thread religiously a while back.

Bridge93

Dubh Geannain wrote: »

One of my work colleagues got a private PCR test at the weekend and tested positive. He started self isolating in his home and waited for the contact tracers to get in touch. No word so he followed himself up to find out he needs to get the HSE test too, as his positive won't be registered by them otherwise.

I'm sure that anecdote has been recounted numerous times at this stage but I stopped following the thread religiously a while back.

To be fair that seems normal i would have thought. If its a private test, how would the HSE know he tested positive? Seems reasonable they would require him to go through official channels now to get properly accounted for

Dubh Geannain

Bridge93 wrote: »

To be fair that seems normal i would have thought. If its a private test, how would the HSE know he tested positive? Seems reasonable they would require him to go through official channels now to get properly accounted for

Absolutely, it does but there's a gap there in that he wasn't told by the Private test centre to follow up with the HSE. That's a big gap IMO. It's only through his own diligence that he's become aware of it.

To be allowed perform these private tests (at a cost) there should be at least be some requirement on the Test Centres to do one or two of the following -
1. Inform the patient to follow up with the HSE
2. Inform the HSE to make an appointment for the patient

seamus

Been two weeks since I did an analysis on hospital numbers;

seamus wrote: »

I wouldn't be confident at this stage of 200 by Easter. I think right now any projection beyond next week is fraught because we may have hit a bit of an inflection point.
If we're under 300 this day next week, we should be happy.

Yep. Even a weeks' projection was screwed up that time.

Overall, hospital numbers are dropping, just slowly. On balance we are discharging more than we're admitting, but just about.

Weekly drops;
25th - 30th: Down 454 (23%)
Feb 2nd - 6th: Down 330 (21.6%)
9th - 13th: Down 314 (26%)
15th - 20th: Down 197 (21.5%)
22nd- 27th: Down 196 (26%)
Mar 1st - 6th: Down 140 (25%)
Mar 8th - 13th: Down 83 (19.6%)
15th - 20th: Down 21 (6%)
22nd - 27th: Down 56 (15%)

This time if we're under 300 come Saturday, we should be happy. It means the trajectory is still downward and any relaxing of restrictions is justifiable.

ICU numbers are still trending well. I said 60 by Easter, and we might just eek that, if not close to it. This suggests to me that the vaccination programme is having the impact where we need it to; hospitalisations are not translating to ICU numbers.

There was a bit of a plateau with ICU on Paddy's week, but I would attribute that to the bank holiday; staff availability might limit any decisions to discharge patients.

muddypuppy

Dubh Geannain wrote: »

One of my work colleagues got a private PCR test at the weekend and tested positive. He started self isolating in his home and waited for the contact tracers to get in touch. No word so he followed himself up to find out he needs to get the HSE test too, as his positive won't be registered by them otherwise.

I'm sure that anecdote has been recounted numerous times at this stage but I stopped following the thread religiously a while back.

I honestly would have done the same mistake and expected the private center to follow up with the HSE.

I was looking at the FAQ of one of this testing sites https://rocdochealthcheck.ie/faq/ and it says

As part of our follow-up care, if detected for COVID-19 we inform the individual’s doctor as well as the HSE to assist with more accurate contact tracing and recording of detected cases.

If you are not from Ireland and do not currently have a GP, mark this box as unapplicable.

So unfortunately it might be up to the individual testing center?

Dubh Geannain

Dubh Geannain wrote: »

Absolutely, it does but there's a gap there in that he wasn't told by the Private test centre to follow up with the HSE. That's a big gap IMO. It's only through his own diligence that he's become aware of it.

To be allowed perform these private tests (at a cost) there should be at least be some requirement on the Test Centres to do one or two of the following -
1. Inform the patient to follow up with the HSE
2. Inform the HSE to make an appointment for the patient

As Covid-19 is a notifiable infectious disease the private lab do have a legal responsibility to report the case to the public authorities.

https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/list/5/publichealth/publichealthdepts/id/idreporting.html

Sofa King Great

The positive asymptomatic cases being caught at the walk in centres should be seen as a failure of the contact tracing system rather than a success of the centres

Sofa King Great

Sofa King Great wrote: »

The positive asymptomatic cases being caught at the walk in centres should be seen as a failure of the contact tracing system rather than a success of the centres

...or perhaps both?

is_that_so

Sofa King Great wrote: »

The positive asymptomatic cases being caught at the walk in centres should be seen as a failure of the contact tracing system rather than a success of the centres

Not really, testing to date is dependent on people seeking out tests. These centres may offer better data on the possible effect of asymptomatics on the spread of disease. Testing like this is not practical on a national scale.

Sofa King Great

[Deleted User] wrote: »

...or perhaps both?

If it were to complement a decent contract tracing regimen I'd say it was a success but it is just papering over the cracks - that is clear from the high positivity rate (relative to the positivity rate from the normal testing)

Sofa King Great

Sofa King Great wrote: »

The positive asymptomatic cases being caught at the walk in centres should be seen as a failure of the contact tracing system rather than a success of the centres

Contact tracing has been one of our biggest failures overall, the close contact definition is too narrow, we don't actively look for possible contacts, only what is obvious. We decided a long time ago to basically do what was feasible without a huge effort.

Bridge93

The contact tracers are fighting a losing battle at this stage, I wouldn't blame them too much. As more and more people start to ignore certain restrictions their contacts are going up all over the place. Now if somebody tests positive from breaking the rules, they are surely more likely to keep that to themselves? They shouldn't, but some (many) definitely one depending on the breach they've committed. Not much the tracers can do if they aren't given the contacts

Sofa King Great

Bridge93 wrote: »

The contact tracers are fighting a losing battle at this stage, I wouldn't blame them too much. As more and more people start to ignore certain restrictions their contacts are going up all over the place. Now if somebody tests positive from breaking the rules, they are surely more likely to keep that to themselves? They shouldn't, but some (many) definitely one depending on the breach they've committed. Not much the tracers can do if they aren't given the contacts

It's not the contact tracers fault - they are under resourced and operating within admitted definition of a close contact.

Bridge93

Bridge93 wrote: »

The contact tracers are fighting a losing battle at this stage, I wouldn't blame them too much. As more and more people start to ignore certain restrictions their contacts are going up all over the place. Now if somebody tests positive from breaking the rules, they are surely more likely to keep that to themselves? They shouldn't, but some (many) definitely one depending on the breach they've committed. Not much the tracers can do if they aren't given the contacts

I wouldn't blame the actual tracers, but the resources they have been given and the scope of what they do falls well short of an adequate containment strategy. Going back 48 hours from symptom onset and sticking to the 2m, 15 min, no mask stuff to determine close contacts is not enough to close infection chains and is based on incorrect assumptions made at the start.

Sofa King Great

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I wouldn't blame the actual tracers, but the resources they have been given and the scope of what they do falls well short of an adequate containment strategy. Going back 48 hours from symptom onset and sticking to the 2m, 15 min, no mask stuff to determine close contacts is not enough to close infection chains and is based on incorrect assumptions made at the start.

It also renders all the data we use about where the disease is spreading as useless. Hence why we have huge numbers of "community" and "household" and barely any cases in other settings

Str8outtaWuhan

heard pat kenny on the radio saying he was a close contact and got tested it was negative and still has to restrict until after 2nd test. Most close contact i know of are only getting one test at day 10 . Its an omni shambles of a system added to the fact that 2 dr's in my town , one still vaccinating over 75's other nearly finished over 70's

OwenM

Banana Republic 1 wrote: »

This notion that NPHET are up on an eerie like Mordor with a cat-o-nine tales is really stupid at this stage. The Government is handing them the weapons they can use is it their fault that they are been given cluster bombs instead of cruise missiles.The strategy needs to change, Government decide on the strategy.:rolleyes:

They have nothing to loose by retaining a full lockdown, nothing, so why would they do anything else. Asymmetrical risk.

newuser99999

Sofa King Great wrote: »

It's not the contact tracers fault - they are under resourced and operating within admitted definition of a close contact.

It’s only the governments fault that they are under resourced. I know plenty of people out of a job who would be willing to do it just to have something to do.

is_that_so

Deleted User wrote: »

I wouldn't blame the actual tracers, but the resources they have been given and the scope of what they do falls well short of an adequate containment strategy. Going back 48 hours from symptom onset and sticking to the 2m, 15 min, no mask stuff to determine close contacts is not enough to close infection chains and is based on incorrect assumptions made at the start.

Contact tracing breaks down once the number of cases gets too high or the average number of close contacts is in double figures. As Reid commented you can't exponentially expand a system just because people are getting sick. What I would say is that these walk-ins look like an effort to add more tools and it's far better to identify cases than to rely on contact tracing.

Cosmo Kramer

hotmail.com wrote: »

People want hope, they want restrictions (but not for themselves), they want to return to normal but don't want another wave, they want to travel but not others to travel.

Sort that out.

Exactly, it's impossible. There can be no roadmap, at least not one that people want to hear.

The reality is that by the time we get up to speed with the current vaccination program it will be largely rendered useless anyway, as the South African variant, which is currently spreading widely around mainland Europe, will have taken over as the dominant variant in Ireland also.

The current vaccinations only have a 10% to 30% success rate against the SA variant so are insufficient to tackle the autumn wave we're facing into. Everybody will need to be vaccinated again anyway because of it, we'll be starting over from scratch with vaccinations. It's unavoidable, and the government will know that, but probably don't want to depress people any further at the moment.

But the reality is that we're facing into another winter of lockdown and probably well into 2022 as well, so the best advice unfortunately is probably to just try to suck it up, stop worrying about irrelevancies like 10k or 20k travel limits and make the best of whatever you have because it is unlikely there will be any significant changes for the next year or more.