Covid 19 Part XXXIV-249,437 ROI(4,906 deaths) 120,195 NI (2,145 deaths)(01/05)Read OP

gozunda

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Contact tracing has been one of our biggest failures overall, the close contact definition is too narrow, we don't actively look for possible contacts, only what is obvious. We decided a long time ago to basically do what was feasible without a huge effort.

To be fair to those who work in contract tracing - some of those contacted are somewhat less than co-operative

Covid-19 contact tracers are encountering incidents where some people are ignoring their calls, not disclosing how they may have got the virus, and not revealing other close contacts, according to a senior official at a regional Department of Public...

Dr Mannix revealed that her team of contact tracers in the mid-west region “encounter challenges” such as “people not answering their phones, reluctance to reveal their close contacts, and occasionally people not wanting to disclose how they may have been exposed to the virus”.

Health.https://www.breakingnews.ie/amp/ireland/people-ignoring-covid-contact-tracing-calls-health-official-warns-1084991.html

covidrelease

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

The reality is that by the time we get up to speed with the current vaccination program it will be largely rendered useless anyway, as the South African variant, which is currently spreading widely around mainland Europe, will have taken over as the dominant variant in Ireland also.

Oh christ :D:D

timmyntc

is_that_so wrote: »

Contact tracing breaks down once the number of cases gets too high or the average number of close contacts is in double figures. As Reid commented you can't exponentially expand a system just because people are getting sick. What I would say is that these walk-ins look like an effort to add more tools and it's far better to identify cases than to rely on contact tracing.

Yes but effective contact tracing will stop cases getting so high in the first place.
A proper contact tracing system would keep going back well beyond 48hrs to attempt to find the whole chain or transmission.

covidrelease

gozunda wrote: »

I linked to two articles from January detailing the UKs governments statement on the policing of UK restrictions including parking benches (which you pooh poohed etc) and other things.

You keep banging on about enforcement measures in the UK from nearly 3 months ago, when the virus was rampant, to try and make out the UK police have been adapting similar enforcement measures in recent weeks.

It just silly.

It won't help with images beaming in from the UK of partial open-ups, this will just embolden people here to ignore government restrictions.

is_that_so

timmyntc wrote: »

Yes but effective contact tracing will stop cases getting so high in the first place.
A proper contact tracing system would keep going back well beyond 48hrs to attempt to find the whole chain or transmission.

48 hours should deliver a lot of contacts at risk. They've been reluctant to go too far back because of the known limitations of our system, high individual levels of close contacts, and the effort versus result conundrum. 7 days seem to be what they'll now look at. Incidentally there are more than a few anecdotes of contact tracers being told what to do with themselves so there's that element too. If you really want a good system, like South Korea, you need to be able to do things that GDPR forbids.

covidrelease

Deleted User wrote: »

It won't help with images beaming in from the UK of partial open-ups, this will just embolden people here to ignore government restrictions.

Hopefully it will make the government cop on and realise the restrictions in place are the wrong ones and badly implemented.

We will also have people crossing the border in large numbers shortly, and rightly so.

Construction closed, and pretending all the boys are sitting at home, no other country as pathetic as that.

timmyntc

is_that_so wrote: »

48 hours should deliver a lot of contacts at risk. They've been reluctant to go too far back because of the known limitations of our system and the effort versus result conundrum. 7 days seem to be what they'll now look at. Incidentally there are more than a few anecdotes of contact tracers being told what to do with themselves so there's that element too. If you really want a good system, like South Korea, you need to be able to do things that GDPR forbids.

Data protection might limit it to some extent, but not to the extent that they cant ask - give us all your contacts up to the last week or two.

It's a complete lack of ambition in setting it up. They essentially had a blank cheque to implement this seeing as the alternative was lockdown and income supports, so youd get much better value for money with a proper contact tracing system. But no, sure this is Ireland.. home of the half-assed

FishOnABike

muddypuppy wrote: »

I honestly would have done the same mistake and expected the private center to follow up with the HSE.

I was looking at the FAQ of one of this testing sites https://rocdochealthcheck.ie/faq/ and it says


So unfortunately it might be up to the individual testing center?

Surely as a notifiable disease it isn't up to individual private testing centres? https://www.mhc.ie/latest/insights/covid-19-a-notifiable-disease-guidance-for-medical-practitioners

is_that_so

is_that_so wrote: »

Contact tracing breaks down once the number of cases gets too high or the average number of close contacts is in double figures. As Reid commented you can't exponentially expand a system just because people are getting sick. What I would say is that these walk-ins look like an effort to add more tools and it's far better to identify cases than to rely on contact tracing.

Yeah and our already inadequate effort breaks down once case numbers go beyond a relatively small level. The point is once you use your blunt instrument (lockdown), to get cases to a certain level you then should have the more refined resources (tracing and testing) available to maintain or even reduce the level of cases further, our current system (a full year in) doesn't do that and isn't resourced or nuanced enough to do that.

Reid is just making excuses for a system that doesn't work well enough at low numbers and collapses once you have higher numbers, to admit that would be him admitting he hasn't done his job very well.

PowerToWait

covidrelease wrote: »

We will also have people crossing the border in large numbers shortly, and rightly so.

What’s right about it? You think large numbers of unvaccinated free staters will be in for warm welcomes up North?

kleiner feigling

Did anyone hear Anthony Staines on Newstalk this morning stating that Covid is not seasonal?.... immediately followed by Paul Moynagh stating that it is seasonal (I personally believe the latter to be true, as is the case for other coronaviruses).
This is just one example of the misinformation and scaremongering going on.
No wonder people have lost patience, when experts are given free reign to make sweeping statements without any data/evidence to support their assertions, and this goes unchallenged by the media.

The idea that there is currently a surge in cases in Ireland is laughable considering deaths have declined in recent weeks, and positive tests have remained stable (though likely to increase with additional testing at the new walk-in centres).
In any case, the positive tests rarely have anything to do with illness with so many having no symptoms or minor symptoms.
All perspective has gone out the window.
Speaking to healthcare workers, our hospitals have never before been so quiet, and the real epidemic will be those who fall through the net because we've shut down so many services.

Sorry for rant!

MerlinSouthDub

GP referral data for Friday out - consistent with the general pattern for last week, it looks to have stabilised after a jump up and possibly starting to go down again gradually.

https://tomorrowscare.ie/covid/2021-03-29_COVID_GP_Survey_Results.pdf

kleiner feigling

kleiner feigling wrote: »

Did anyone hear Anthony Staines on Newstalk this morning stating that Covid is not seasonal?.... immediately followed by Paul Moynagh stating that it is seasonal (I personally believe the latter to be true, as is the case for other coronaviruses).
This is just one example of the misinformation and scaremongering going on.
No wonder people have lost patience, when experts are given free reign to make sweeping statements without any data/evidence to support their assertions, and this goes unchallenged by the media.

The idea that there is currently a surge in cases in Ireland is laughable considering deaths have declined in recent weeks, and positive tests have remained stable (though likely to increase with additional testing at the new walk-in centres).
In any case, the positive tests rarely have anything to do with illness with so many having no symptoms or minor symptoms.
All perspective has gone out the window.
Speaking to healthcare workers, our hospitals have never before been so quiet, and the real epidemic will be those who fall through the net because we've shut down so many services.

Sorry for rant!

It is Moynagh not Staines who is making claims without evidence in this incidence. A virus is usually seasonal largely because of the level of exposure a population has had previously. That is the difference with Covid - enough people have not had previous exposure

iamwhoiam

kleiner feigling wrote: »

Did anyone hear Anthony Staines on Newstalk this morning stating that Covid is not seasonal?.... immediately followed by Paul Moynagh stating that it is seasonal (I personally believe the latter to be true, as is the case for other coronaviruses).
This is just one example of the misinformation and scaremongering going on.
No wonder people have lost patience, when experts are given free reign to make sweeping statements without any data/evidence to support their assertions, and this goes unchallenged by the media.

The idea that there is currently a surge in cases in Ireland is laughable considering deaths have declined in recent weeks, and positive tests have remained stable (though likely to increase with additional testing at the new walk-in centres).
In any case, the positive tests rarely have anything to do with illness with so many having no symptoms or minor symptoms.
All perspective has gone out the window.
Speaking to healthcare workers, our hospitals have never before been so quiet, and the real epidemic will be those who fall through the net because we've shut down so many services.

Sorry for rant!

We will have surge in cancer cases over the next while . Stress is a huge trigger for some cancers. Added to the missed cases due to lack of clinics and screening

lawred2

iamwhoiam wrote: »

We will have surge in cancer cases over the next while . Stress is a huge trigger for some cancers. Added to the missed cases due to lack of clinics and screening

no one cares

covid is all that matters now

seamus

iamwhoiam wrote: »

We will have surge in cancer cases over the next while . Stress is a huge trigger for some cancers. Added to the missed cases due to lack of clinics and screening

Stress alone doesn't trigger cancer to start. However, people suffering from chronic stress are known to have higher cancer incidence.

The stress from a pandemic is unlikely to lead immediately to a huge uptick in cancer, but there might be a noticeable bump in certain cancers in the the next 10-20 years.

The reason that people in highly stressful situations (such as the diagnosis or a death of a family member) so often seem to get their own cancer diagnosis shortly afterwards is purely a function of them getting examined more closely. They feel like absolute crap, believe it due to the stress, they go to the doctor, who sends them for tests, and they find the cancer that's been developing in the background.

Missed diagnoses though, you're absolutely right. For many families, the end of the pandemic will be the start of a new nightmare as illnesses that were being blamed on the stress of the pandemic, don't lift.

SusieBlue

iamwhoiam wrote: »

We will have surge in cancer cases over the next while . Stress is a huge trigger for some cancers. Added to the missed cases due to lack of clinics and screening

Yes, you’re right. I think we will end up having more secondary deaths because of the lockdowns and restrictions than we will from the virus.

The missed cancer screenings, lack of access to elective treatments and surgeries, stress, isolation, and mental health issues will cost more lives in the long run. It’s not like any of those health issues have gone away just because we are in lockdown and many of them have been exacerbated because of it.

iamwhoiam

seamus wrote: »

Stress alone doesn't trigger cancer to start. However, people suffering from chronic stress are known to have higher cancer incidence.

The stress from a pandemic is unlikely to lead immediately to a huge uptick in cancer, but there might be a noticeable bump in certain cancers in the the next 10-20 years.

The reason that people in highly stressful situations (such as the diagnosis or a death of a family member) so often seem to get their own cancer diagnosis shortly afterwards is purely a function of them getting examined more closely. They feel like absolute crap, believe it due to the stress, they go to the doctor, who sends them for tests, and they find the cancer that's been developing in the background.

Missed diagnoses though, you're absolutely right. For many families, the end of the pandemic will be the start of a new nightmare as illnesses that were being blamed on the stress of the pandemic, don't lift.

I dont agree with you on the trigger . It is not at all proven that stressful situations are not the trigger . I know so many diagnosed after a highly stressful situation
This pandemic is a highly stressful situation for so many people , we cannot even begin to foresee the numbers

covidrelease

iamwhoiam wrote: »

We will have surge in cancer cases over the next while . Stress is a huge trigger for some cancers. Added to the missed cases due to lack of clinics and screening

A vast array of problems coming down the track due to this farce.

Blocking construction is another scandal.

Wombatman

Slap on the wrist for George Lee.

https://www.dublinlive.ie/whats-on/food-drink-news/rtenews-irishpubs-level5update-georgelee-livetv-20275718

iamwhoiam

Wombatman wrote: »

Slap on the wrist for George Lee.

https://www.dublinlive.ie/whats-on/food-drink-news/rtenews-irishpubs-level5update-georgelee-livetv-20275718

We heard him say it and laughed at the pure idiocy of what he was saying

SusieBlue

SusieBlue wrote: »

Yes, you’re right. I think we will end up having more secondary deaths because of the lockdowns and restrictions than we will from the virus.

The missed cancer screenings, lack of access to elective treatments and surgeries, stress, isolation, and mental health issues will cost more lives in the long run. It’s not like any of those health issues have gone away just because we are in lockdown and many of them have been exacerbated because of it.

We wont have to wait years to see if there is this impact.

Annually we run at about 45k cancer diagnosis per year. If this falls considerably for 2020 it would indicate a lot of misses. We should have this data soon enough I would imagine.

covidrelease

Wombatman wrote: »

Slap on the wrist for George Lee.

https://www.dublinlive.ie/whats-on/food-drink-news/rtenews-irishpubs-level5update-georgelee-livetv-20275718

And as usual nothing but arrogance from RTE.

Jon Williams, managing director of RTE News, said RTE won’t make a correction.

“Nothing to correct,” he added. “RTE reported, accurately, findings from ESRI. Yes, hospitality closed, but cafes, restaurants and some pubs open for takeaway.

seamus

iamwhoiam wrote: »

I dont agree with you on the trigger . It is not at all proven that stressful situations are not the trigger . I know so many diagnosed after a highly stressful situation

It's off-topic here, but we do know there is no link between stressful events/periods and cancer.

Cancer is the result of cumulative genetic damage/mutations, typically over decades, leading to runaway cell growth as the typical growth regulation systems have been damaged. Stressful situations do not cause cells to suddenly become cancerous.

Stress may exacerbate an existing cancer, but it doesn't prompt one to spontaneously start.

Wombatman

iamwhoiam wrote: »

We heard him say it and laughed at the pure idiocy of what he was saying

They downgraded him to the Vladivostok brief of Environment and Science Correspondent, hoping he would fade away, and along comes a global pandemic.

:facepalm.jpg:

Banana Republic 1

OwenM wrote: »

They have nothing to loose by retaining a full lockdown, nothing, so why would they do anything else. Asymmetrical risk.

There not in it for the money or “prestige” as allot think.

iamwhoiam

seamus wrote: »

It's off-topic here, but we do know there is no link between stressful events/periods and cancer.

Cancer is the result of cumulative genetic damage/mutations, typically over decades, leading to runaway cell growth as the typical growth regulation systems have been damaged. Stressful situations do not cause cells to suddenly become cancerous.

Stress may exacerbate an existing cancer, but it doesn't prompt one to spontaneously start.

I know that . I never said spontaneously . I said triggers it

kleiner feigling

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It is Moynagh not Staines who is making claims without evidence in this incidence. A virus is usually seasonal largely because of the level of exposure a population has had previously. That is the difference with Covid - enough people have not had previous exposure

I haven't heard that theory before, and my point was that neither one of them offered data to support their arguments.
To date I've only seen evidence supporting seasonality of the disease so that is what I base my opinion on (opinion!).
I am open to being proven wrong as I am not an expert.... so it would be helpful if the experts actually used evidence to support their arguments, or alternatively, kept stumm!

is_that_so

covidrelease wrote: »

A vast array of problems coming down the track due to this farce.

Without wishing to downplay these in any way they'll be a whole lot easier to deal with when this is over.