Covid 19 Part XXXIV-249,437 ROI(4,906 deaths) 120,195 NI (2,145 deaths)(01/05)Read OP

CruelSummer

Eod100 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/MichealLehane/status/1376519668580634632?s=19

Well that’s the end of people following these absolutely nonsense over the top rules so. They’ve two choices now, make it possible for people to meet in a controlled way outdoors, lift the 5k and allow outdoor sports for children and certain sports for adults to recommence, click and collect at a minimum.
Why is construction not considered an essential service & returned? Do the Government not care if people don’t have somewhere to live? Considering all they’ve talked about over the past 12 months is ‘Stay at home’, it’s hard to believe.

Hospitalisation and ICU numbers are falling, this nonsense about a new wave doesn’t add up in the figures, they’ve to test 20,000 per day to find 500~600 cases, they used to test between 10-12k per day before Christmas. They’re now using pop up centres to find asymptomatic cases...people that are not sick. These could also be past Covid infections and not present depending on the amount of rounds / cycles being used currently. I think it’s a good thing that so many people don’t have symptoms and are not sick, not bad.

Our Government have a serious lack of leadership and direction. It doesn’t feel like Ireland knows where it’s going with this, it feels like there’s a void at the top which gives rise to the likes of the extremists ISAG and others in the media.

muddypuppy

stephenjmcd wrote: »

No point in speculating really, we all know not much changes in April anyway. It's been pretty well flagged there's only a handful of changes coming.

1 in RTE says one thing, another says something else..
https://twitter.com/RTENewsAtOne/status/1376510954570125320?s=20

They don't really contradict themself. I'm willing to bet that NPHET advise is "keep the country on level 5, maybe allow construction and increase the 5k limit to 10/20k, definitely don't allow any kind of gathering, even outdoor". The gov might be cautious and stagger those changes, and also allow outdoor sports and change the 5k to county limit instead.

Sanjuro

Christ. I despise the leaks. I think it has been the source of most of my anxiety over the last 6 months no matter how I try to distance myself from this garbage.

Kunta Kinte

covidrelease wrote: »

And as usual nothing but arrogance from RTE.

Jon Williams, managing director of RTE News, said RTE won’t make a correction.

“Nothing to correct,” he added. “RTE reported, accurately, findings from ESRI. Yes, hospitality closed, but cafes, restaurants and some pubs open for takeaway.

And RTE are absolutely correct to state this. Or do you believe that no pubs cafes etc. are open for takeaways?

ninebeanrows

A reminder of the madness that occurred last summer.

We never fully reopened, we never enabled our citizens to live with any sense of reprieve yet these were our figures in late June

Positive Swabs
7

Positivity Rate
0.15%

Swabs processed
4,591

Positive swabs (last 31 days)
611

covidrelease

Kunta Kinte wrote: »

And RTE are absolutely correct to state this. Or do you believe that no pubs cafes etc. are open for takeaways?

Pubs don't do takeaways. That is an off licence.

ninebeanrows

Great numbers!

UNLOCK!!

Positive Swabs
498

Positivity Rate
3.69%

Swabs processed
13,507

Positive swabs (last 31 days)
17,535

Kunta Kinte

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

If Cork has 20 cases again today, and its still under the full level 5, it will really be a disgrace. 5 or 6 counties do need level 5, regional needs to come back. That way greater enforcement can be put in the areas that require it and more policing on the roads that need it etc, taken away from the areas that do not.

So what level do you think Cork should go to?

covidrelease

ninebeanrows wrote: »

A reminder of the madness that occurred last summer.

We never fully reopened, we never enabled our citizens to live with any sense of reprieve yet these were our figures in late June

Positive Swabs
7

Positivity Rate
0.15%

Swabs processed
4,591

Positive swabs (last 31 days)
611

Every second sentence out of the donkeys mouth tomorrow will mention "new variant"

jhegarty

Monday :
Positive Swabs : 498
Positivity Rate : 3.69%


Sunday :
Positive Swabs : 603
Positivity Rate : 3.07%

pauldry

Zero cases in Sligo yesterday and an average of 1 per day.

Still everything completely closed.

This country is a prison.

hynesie08

https://twitter.com/COVID19DataIE/status/1376544438718246923?s=20

That's the good ****....

stephenjmcd

Sunday & Monday
https://twitter.com/COVID19DataIE/status/1376544438718246923?s=19

gozunda

covidrelease wrote: »

You keep banging on about enforcement measures in the UK from nearly 3 months ago, when the virus was rampant, to try and make out the UK police have been adapting similar enforcement measures in recent weeks.

It just silly.

Nope. You're obsession with dates of references is definitely silly. Especially where they show - as detailed restrictions have been policed there.
The only insisting of "recent weeks" is yourself btw. And you must have missed it I posted yet another updated link and you're still complaining. :rolleyes: :pac:

covidrelease

jhegarty wrote: »

Monday :
Positive Swabs : 498
Positivity Rate : 3.69%


Sunday :
Positive Swabs : 603
Positivity Rate : 3.07%

So they delayed their meeting to get up to date numbers, (anticipating an increase due to the new variant all people mixing in greater numbers)

Now numbers looking reasonable, I bet they won't change their tune though.

km79

Well now .........NPHET wanted to wait for the weekend data to make a more informed decision
There it is

covidrelease

gozunda wrote: »

Nope. You're obsession with dates of references is definitely silly. Especially where they show - as detailed restrictions have been policed there. And you must have missed it I posted yet another updated link and you're still complaining. :rolleyes: :pac:

yeah please yourself with your links to show what was happening months ago:pac:

SleetAndSnow

Kunta Kinte wrote: »

So what level do you think Cork should go to?

Personally, I think a level 4- should be on the cards (not like they stick to the set levels anyway).

That would allow county wide travel, yet would also still not allow indoor gatherings. The minus part to allow 1/2 people to meet outdoors be it in a park or else in a private garden. <--- This I believe would help a lot of people, as the last time we were allowed meet in gardens I personally know a lot of people who stuck to that and stayed outside with hot water bottles, blankets etc.

Outdoor dining possibly with strict if not stricter guidelines to be followed and better enforced then previous, along with the return of click and collect.

I don't see why any of this wouldn't be possibly for the counties with low numbers, and wheres it been proven countless times that by just being outdoors transmission is basically nothing. It is the safest place to be and should be pushed a lot more.

Rebelbrowser

KrustyUCC wrote: »

The rationale for that was given in yesterday's Indo

"The prospect of people being able to travel around their home county, which some ministers have argued for, is thought to have diminished in recent days.

"Nphet will look at that and go 'what's the bare minimum necessary to give people a bit of hope and optimism while not really changing anything'. I think it could be 10km," a government source said."

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/revealed-tight-covid-restrictions-until-may-as-virus-surges-40247322.html

That sounds like classic expectation management. Make it sound like it will be 10km so that a subsequent announcement of 20km sounds like good news.

gozunda

covidrelease wrote: »

yeah please yourself with your links to show what was happening months ago

Did ya miss this :pac:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=116725553&postcount=1278

So moving on to the question asked

Any links showing that there's absolutely no police actions in relation to restrictions this past week? Google is your friend btw.

stephenjmcd

Comparing last Sunday & Monday

Last Sunday - 611 from 14,882 - 4.11%
This Sunday - 603 from 19,619 - 3.07%

Last Monday - 506 from 12,722 - 3.98%
Today - 498 from 13,507 - 3.69%

Sofa King Great

Sanjuro wrote: »

Christ. I despise the leaks. I think it has been the source of most of my anxiety over the last 6 months no matter how I try to distance myself from this garbage.

In my job I am subject to confidentiality agreements and non disclosure agreements. On top of that it would just be viewed as highly unprofessional to leak information.

Cabinet ministers and those in their direct employment should never be leaking information but the last year has told us there are more leaks than a pasta strainer

ninebeanrows

The Sunday Independent's virus surge is being illustrated well today.

We seriously need a media ombudsman to crack down on the complete misinformation and unhealthy biased analysis by certain media.

Their headline on Sunday was an outrage and there wasn't even an opinion piece in any paper since to counter it?

A peddling of misinformation to try and increase clicks and revenue.

Literally crushing your Grandmam or Grandads heart with a constant stream of negative lies and a entrenched agenda. It is a disgusting and a failure of political life that nobody has stood up against it.

kleiner feigling

kleiner feigling wrote: »

The surge you're referring to is presumably to do with positive tests.
I'd be hesitant to draw any conclusions from positive covid test figures as many of these are asymptomatic, and who knows how many asymptomatic cases happened last year so that data is incomplete.

I'd argue the covid death figures are more indicative of what's happening, and do point to seasonality.
A cursory look at Covid deaths in Europe for example shows peak deaths were in Dec/Jan.
The deaths in Europe are tapering slightly now as we enter spring.

Further to that, there has been a fair deal of data regarding the instability of the virus with varying humidity, temperature, and UV levels which obviously varies from country to country throughout the year, and would suggest the virus may be stronger/weaker as these fluctuate with the seasons. Depends on the local climate.

Also, seasonality does not mean the virus will follow the exact same pattern as Flu, it just means the virus has a cycle (can be prevalent at one time in the calendar, or even multi-annually).

Obviously there are numerous competing factors including lockdowns, vaccinations, weakened immune-systems in winter due to reduced sunlight etc.

Feel free to disagree.

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2020.567184/full

Conclusion: Will COVID-19 Become Seasonal?
The basic reproduction number (R0) is the number of secondary cases resulting from a primary case in a susceptible population and is an important indicator to predict the spread of a virus. For a virus to follow a seasonal pattern, and thus wane in summer, its effective R0 should drop below 1 (112). For SARS-CoV, the R0 is estimated between 2 and 3 (112) and in some estimates as high as 5.7 (113). As discussed above, several factors in the summer might reduce the effective R0 of respiratory viruses including the effect of warm tempertures and humidity on the stability of the virus and susceptibility of the host as well as behavior of the population such as indoor crowding. For seasonal influenza virus, its R0 is estimated to be 1.27 (114). Therefore, these aforementioned factors could easily drop the effective R0 to below 1 in summer halting the virus spread and resulting in the observed seasonal pattern of flu. The warm temperatures and humidity of the summer might impact the host immune response and thus its susceptibility to infection by SARS-CoV-2 similar to its effect on influenza (66). However, other factors including: (1) a much higher R0, (2) higher stability of SARS-CoV-2 (it can survive for up to 72 h on hard surfaces at temperatures between 21 and 23°C and in relative humidity of 40%) (83), and (3) a largely immunologically naïve population against SARS-CoV-2 compared to influenza make it unlikely for the R0 to drop in summer enough to halt the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Therefore, without public health interventions, SARS-CoV-2 will continue to spread in summer as witnessed in many countries around the world. Nonetheless, as the population herd immunity is attained through natural infections and/or vaccinations then the effective R0 is expected to drop substantially making the virus more prone to seasonal fluctuations.

covidrelease

km79 wrote: »

Well now .........NPHET wanted to wait for the weekend data to make a more informed decision
There it is

They must be sick that their new variant is not delivering.

RGS

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

That sounds like classic expectation management. Make it sound like it will be 10km so that a subsequent announcement of 20km sounds like good news.

in a normal time that might be true.


But with our experience of this inept government they have never exceeded expectations.

MerlinSouthDub

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Comparing last Sunday & Monday

Last Sunday - 611 from 14,882 - 4.11%
This Sunday - 603 from 19,619 - 3.07%

Last Monday - 506 from 12,722 - 3.98%
Today - 498 from 13,507 - 3.69%

Great to see things stabilise, and falling slightly. 7 day swab average = 570 (compared to 594 yesterday).

Rebelbrowser

There is some amount of tinfoil hat conspiracy theory nonsense on here. With the exception of a few academics definitely milking this, 99% of people, including NPHET want this over. Again, there is no them and us. NPHET members also presumably have grandparents, school going kids, friends they can't meet for a pint, etc just like the rest of us.

Kunta Kinte

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Personally, I think a level 4- should be on the cards (not like they stick to the set levels anyway).

That would allow county wide travel, yet would also still not allow indoor gatherings. The minus part to allow 1/2 people to meet outdoors be it in a park or else in a private garden. <--- This I believe would help a lot of people, as the last time we were allowed meet in gardens I personally know a lot of people who stuck to that and stayed outside with hot water bottles, blankets etc.

Outdoor dining possibly with strict if not stricter guidelines to be followed and better enforced then previous, along with the return of click and collect.

I don't see why any of this wouldn't be possibly for the counties with low numbers, and wheres it been proven countless times that by just being outdoors transmission is basically nothing. It is the safest place to be and should be pushed a lot more.

That`s the issue right there. After many restaurants, cafes ,gastropubs including several in Cork flouted the guidelines last time they were open what makes you think these premises would not just do the same again if they were to reopen next week?

SleetAndSnow

Kunta Kinte wrote: »

That`s the issue right there. After many restaurants, cafes ,gastropubs including several in Cork flouted the guidelines last time they were open what makes you think these premises would not just do the same again if they were to reopen next week?

Hence the better enforcement, if we want this to work we can't let one place off and another place do what they want. Taking it away from the 5km checks and making sure people are within their 5k when they are in a park, and putting the enforcement onto these premises instead would go a long way into helping that.

Outdoor dining would be one of the last things though, the rest of the list I believe is fair enough.