Covid 19 Part XXXIV-249,437 ROI(4,906 deaths) 120,195 NI (2,145 deaths)(01/05)Read OP

SleetAndSnow

Kunta Kinte wrote: »

So what level do you think Cork should go to?

Personally, I think a level 4- should be on the cards (not like they stick to the set levels anyway).

That would allow county wide travel, yet would also still not allow indoor gatherings. The minus part to allow 1/2 people to meet outdoors be it in a park or else in a private garden. <--- This I believe would help a lot of people, as the last time we were allowed meet in gardens I personally know a lot of people who stuck to that and stayed outside with hot water bottles, blankets etc.

Outdoor dining possibly with strict if not stricter guidelines to be followed and better enforced then previous, along with the return of click and collect.

I don't see why any of this wouldn't be possibly for the counties with low numbers, and wheres it been proven countless times that by just being outdoors transmission is basically nothing. It is the safest place to be and should be pushed a lot more.

Rebelbrowser

KrustyUCC wrote: »

The rationale for that was given in yesterday's Indo

"The prospect of people being able to travel around their home county, which some ministers have argued for, is thought to have diminished in recent days.

"Nphet will look at that and go 'what's the bare minimum necessary to give people a bit of hope and optimism while not really changing anything'. I think it could be 10km," a government source said."

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/revealed-tight-covid-restrictions-until-may-as-virus-surges-40247322.html

That sounds like classic expectation management. Make it sound like it will be 10km so that a subsequent announcement of 20km sounds like good news.

gozunda

covidrelease wrote: »

yeah please yourself with your links to show what was happening months ago

Did ya miss this :pac:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=116725553&postcount=1278

So moving on to the question asked

Any links showing that there's absolutely no police actions in relation to restrictions this past week? Google is your friend btw.

stephenjmcd

Comparing last Sunday & Monday

Last Sunday - 611 from 14,882 - 4.11%
This Sunday - 603 from 19,619 - 3.07%

Last Monday - 506 from 12,722 - 3.98%
Today - 498 from 13,507 - 3.69%

Sofa King Great

Sanjuro wrote: »

Christ. I despise the leaks. I think it has been the source of most of my anxiety over the last 6 months no matter how I try to distance myself from this garbage.

In my job I am subject to confidentiality agreements and non disclosure agreements. On top of that it would just be viewed as highly unprofessional to leak information.

Cabinet ministers and those in their direct employment should never be leaking information but the last year has told us there are more leaks than a pasta strainer

ninebeanrows

The Sunday Independent's virus surge is being illustrated well today.

We seriously need a media ombudsman to crack down on the complete misinformation and unhealthy biased analysis by certain media.

Their headline on Sunday was an outrage and there wasn't even an opinion piece in any paper since to counter it?

A peddling of misinformation to try and increase clicks and revenue.

Literally crushing your Grandmam or Grandads heart with a constant stream of negative lies and a entrenched agenda. It is a disgusting and a failure of political life that nobody has stood up against it.

kleiner feigling

kleiner feigling wrote: »

The surge you're referring to is presumably to do with positive tests.
I'd be hesitant to draw any conclusions from positive covid test figures as many of these are asymptomatic, and who knows how many asymptomatic cases happened last year so that data is incomplete.

I'd argue the covid death figures are more indicative of what's happening, and do point to seasonality.
A cursory look at Covid deaths in Europe for example shows peak deaths were in Dec/Jan.
The deaths in Europe are tapering slightly now as we enter spring.

Further to that, there has been a fair deal of data regarding the instability of the virus with varying humidity, temperature, and UV levels which obviously varies from country to country throughout the year, and would suggest the virus may be stronger/weaker as these fluctuate with the seasons. Depends on the local climate.

Also, seasonality does not mean the virus will follow the exact same pattern as Flu, it just means the virus has a cycle (can be prevalent at one time in the calendar, or even multi-annually).

Obviously there are numerous competing factors including lockdowns, vaccinations, weakened immune-systems in winter due to reduced sunlight etc.

Feel free to disagree.

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2020.567184/full

Conclusion: Will COVID-19 Become Seasonal?
The basic reproduction number (R0) is the number of secondary cases resulting from a primary case in a susceptible population and is an important indicator to predict the spread of a virus. For a virus to follow a seasonal pattern, and thus wane in summer, its effective R0 should drop below 1 (112). For SARS-CoV, the R0 is estimated between 2 and 3 (112) and in some estimates as high as 5.7 (113). As discussed above, several factors in the summer might reduce the effective R0 of respiratory viruses including the effect of warm tempertures and humidity on the stability of the virus and susceptibility of the host as well as behavior of the population such as indoor crowding. For seasonal influenza virus, its R0 is estimated to be 1.27 (114). Therefore, these aforementioned factors could easily drop the effective R0 to below 1 in summer halting the virus spread and resulting in the observed seasonal pattern of flu. The warm temperatures and humidity of the summer might impact the host immune response and thus its susceptibility to infection by SARS-CoV-2 similar to its effect on influenza (66). However, other factors including: (1) a much higher R0, (2) higher stability of SARS-CoV-2 (it can survive for up to 72 h on hard surfaces at temperatures between 21 and 23°C and in relative humidity of 40%) (83), and (3) a largely immunologically naïve population against SARS-CoV-2 compared to influenza make it unlikely for the R0 to drop in summer enough to halt the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Therefore, without public health interventions, SARS-CoV-2 will continue to spread in summer as witnessed in many countries around the world. Nonetheless, as the population herd immunity is attained through natural infections and/or vaccinations then the effective R0 is expected to drop substantially making the virus more prone to seasonal fluctuations.

covidrelease

km79 wrote: »

Well now .........NPHET wanted to wait for the weekend data to make a more informed decision
There it is

They must be sick that their new variant is not delivering.

RGS

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

That sounds like classic expectation management. Make it sound like it will be 10km so that a subsequent announcement of 20km sounds like good news.

in a normal time that might be true.


But with our experience of this inept government they have never exceeded expectations.

MerlinSouthDub

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Comparing last Sunday & Monday

Last Sunday - 611 from 14,882 - 4.11%
This Sunday - 603 from 19,619 - 3.07%

Last Monday - 506 from 12,722 - 3.98%
Today - 498 from 13,507 - 3.69%

Great to see things stabilise, and falling slightly. 7 day swab average = 570 (compared to 594 yesterday).

Rebelbrowser

There is some amount of tinfoil hat conspiracy theory nonsense on here. With the exception of a few academics definitely milking this, 99% of people, including NPHET want this over. Again, there is no them and us. NPHET members also presumably have grandparents, school going kids, friends they can't meet for a pint, etc just like the rest of us.

Kunta Kinte

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Personally, I think a level 4- should be on the cards (not like they stick to the set levels anyway).

That would allow county wide travel, yet would also still not allow indoor gatherings. The minus part to allow 1/2 people to meet outdoors be it in a park or else in a private garden. <--- This I believe would help a lot of people, as the last time we were allowed meet in gardens I personally know a lot of people who stuck to that and stayed outside with hot water bottles, blankets etc.

Outdoor dining possibly with strict if not stricter guidelines to be followed and better enforced then previous, along with the return of click and collect.

I don't see why any of this wouldn't be possibly for the counties with low numbers, and wheres it been proven countless times that by just being outdoors transmission is basically nothing. It is the safest place to be and should be pushed a lot more.

That`s the issue right there. After many restaurants, cafes ,gastropubs including several in Cork flouted the guidelines last time they were open what makes you think these premises would not just do the same again if they were to reopen next week?

SleetAndSnow

Kunta Kinte wrote: »

That`s the issue right there. After many restaurants, cafes ,gastropubs including several in Cork flouted the guidelines last time they were open what makes you think these premises would not just do the same again if they were to reopen next week?

Hence the better enforcement, if we want this to work we can't let one place off and another place do what they want. Taking it away from the 5km checks and making sure people are within their 5k when they are in a park, and putting the enforcement onto these premises instead would go a long way into helping that.

Outdoor dining would be one of the last things though, the rest of the list I believe is fair enough.

ninebeanrows

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

There is some amount of tinfoil hat conspiracy theory nonsense on here. With the exception of a few academics definitely milking this, 99% of people, including NPHET want this over. Again, there is no them and us. NPHET members also presumably have grandparents, school going kids, friends they can't meet for a pint, etc just like the rest of us.

NPHET kept quite significant restrictions in place last summer when we were recording 7 cases per day. How could you trust them with anything? They are ultra conservative and have no idea of nuance in their advice.

NEPHET have illustrated they have no nuance and every other need is secondary to the suppression of COVID.

Golfman64

hotmail.com wrote: »

Tennis and golf could have a delayed reopening it seems.

They'll probably align them with the return of schools on the 12th so that they have something else to blame when cases rise again, once they go back. They've already used up playdates, household transmission and general community prevelance. 'It's the mothers and fathers playing golf while the kids are at school that are causing the issues!'

Mind boggling that these were ever stopped to be fair!

Kunta Kinte

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

There is some amount of tinfoil hat conspiracy theory nonsense on here. With the exception of a few academics definitely milking this, 99% of people, including NPHET want this over. Again, there is no them and us. NPHET members also presumably have grandparents, school going kids, friends they can't meet for a pint, etc just like the rest of us.

But but don`t you know that the evil Emperor Tony, his dastardly assistant Ronan and the evil NPHET junta want world domination? According to some on this forum anyway.:rolleyes::rolleyes:

RGS

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

There is some amount of tinfoil hat conspiracy theory nonsense on here. With the exception of a few academics definitely milking this, 99% of people, including NPHET want this over. Again, there is no them and us. NPHET members also presumably have grandparents, school going kids, friends they can't meet for a pint, etc just like the rest of us.

Maybe but as medics they do not see anything beyond a medical problem. They have their 6 figure salaries, their PS pensions, they are insulated from the decisions they make.


They are looking at this from 1 issue only--COVID--nothing else matters to them. If they could save every covid patient from death they would.


That's where our inept government need to grow balls and look at the entire complex picture of society, economy and societal health.

covidrelease

ninebeanrows wrote: »

NPHET kept quite significant restrictions in place last summer when we were recording 7 cases per day. How could you trust them with anything? They are ultra conservative and have no idea of nuance in their advice.

NEPHET have illustrated they have no nuance and every other need is secondary to the suppression of COVID.

But we are now dealing with a new virus, according to FF, no other country has to deal with it so that is why we need to be so cautious this year.

Kunta Kinte

Golfman64 wrote: »

They'll probably align them with the return of schools on the 12th so that they have something else to blame when cases rise again, once they go back. They've already used up playdates, household transmission and general community prevelance. 'It's the mothers and fathers playing golf while the kids are at school that are causing the issues!'

Mind boggling that these were ever stopped to be fair!

Going by your username I imagine you`re fond of the odd round of golf yourself.

CoronaBlocker

retro:electro wrote: »

He is an absolutely pathetic person

George Lee: RTE’s environment and science correspondent.
Though, to my knowledge, he has absolutely no knowledge, education or experience in the fields he is a national reporter on (environment and science) - during a pandemic. And, I may be wrong, but I don't even believe he is qualified as a journalist.

Edit: Apologies if I'm wrong - I'm just working off memory.

gozunda

gozunda wrote: »

Nope. You're obsession with dates of references is definitely silly. Especially where they show - as detailed restrictions have been policed there. And you must have missed it I posted yet another updated link and you're still complaining. :rolleyes: :pac:

Not engaging with this process of fact checking your nonsense of taped up benches and overzealous police activity in the UK. So post all the links you want. Your desperation to present a certain narrative, irrespective of the reality, is really quite astonishing. Something more going on there I feel.....

It’s irrelevant now as there are no longer restrictions on movement in the UK. The ‘stay local’ mantra is guidance only. Indeed Matt Hancock said publicly today you can travel across the country to see friends and family this Easter, as he is.

It’s how it should be in Ireland. Get people outside so that they don’t go inside. Allow people to travel across the country to see family and friends outside who they might not have seen for months. Restricting people from doing this is evidence of such an incredible loss of proportionality by NPHET and the government

Golfman64

Kunta Kinte wrote: »

Going by your username I imagine you`re fond of the odd round of golf yourself.

I don't think it's wise for you to pick on other peoples user names for a jibe

So you think Golf and Tennis should have been stopped while public parks remained open?!

covidrelease

Kunta Kinte wrote: »

Going by your username I imagine you`re fond of the odd round of golf yourself.

Are you a Negro?

Mod: 3 day forum ban applied - this is not acceptable posting

CIARAN_BOYLE

CoronaBlocker wrote: »

George Lee: RTE’s environment and science correspondent.
Though, to my knowledge, he has absolutely no knowledge, education or experience in the fields he is a national reporter on (environment and science) - during a pandemic. And, I may be wrong, but I don't even believe he is qualified as a journalist.

Edit: Apologies if I'm wrong - I'm just working off memory.

He was economics correspondent before he took a break from rte and went into politics.

He was actually decent in that role.

He came back as a junior advisor to the business desk then the agriculture correspondent and then shifted to science iirc.

Basically he took a career break and rte handed someone else his job but had to take him back anyway so he has been doing other jobs he isn't as good at.

Jim_Hodge

CoronaBlocker wrote: »

George Lee: RTE’s environment and science correspondent.
Though, to my knowledge, he has absolutely no knowledge, education or experience in the fields he is a national reporter on (environment and science) - during a pandemic. And, I may be wrong, but I don't even believe he is qualified as a journalist.

Edit: Apologies if I'm wrong - I'm just working off memory.

He has an MSc in Economics. That's about it.

Hooked

Deleted User wrote: »

Not engaging with this process of fact checking your nonsense of taped up benches and overzealous police activity in the UK. So post all the links you want. Your desperation to present a certain narrative, irrespective of the reality, is really quite astonishing. Something more going on there I feel.....

It’s irrelevant now as there are no longer restrictions on movement in the UK. The ‘stay local’ mantra is guidance only. Indeed Matt Hancock said publicly today you can travel across the country to see friends and family this Easter, as he is.

It’s how it should be in Ireland. Get people outside so that they don’t go inside. Allow people to travel across the country to see family and friends outside who they might not have seen for months. Restricting people from doing this is evidence of such an incredible loss of proportionality by NPHET and the government

this. x 1,000,000

Nqp15hhu

There was only 65 cases in Northern Ireland yesterday! Amazing!

CoronaBlocker

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

He was economics correspondent before he took a break from rte and went into politics.

He was actually decent in that role.

He came back as a junior advisor to the business desk then the agriculture correspondent and then shifted to science iirc.

Basically he took a career break and rte handed someone else his job but had to take him back anyway so he has been doing other jobs he isn't as good at.

Or qualified to do. Yet here he is - freaking out the nation, nightly!

Happydays2020

km79 wrote: »

Well now .........NPHET wanted to wait for the weekend data to make a more informed decision
There it is

I listened to negativity all weekend (shame on me)

Sometimes one wonders whether we are back in the first week of a January again.

That was genuinely worrying and people made enormous sacrifices. Meanwhile the finger wagging went on in respect to a meaningful Christmas (and we know it was not for most of us).

KrustyUCC

jhegarty wrote: »

Monday :
Positive Swabs : 498
Positivity Rate : 3.69%


Sunday :
Positive Swabs : 603
Positivity Rate : 3.07%

https://twitter.com/COVID19DataIE/status/1374319998454366209

8 less positive swabs on 785 more tests than this day last week

Not bad at all