Covid 19 Part XXXIV-249,437 ROI(4,906 deaths) 120,195 NI (2,145 deaths)(01/05)Read OP

Natterjack from Kerry

RGS wrote: »

I firmly believe any outdoor activity should be promoted and actively encouraged but it appears our health experts put too much emphasis on the possible side issues and they go on about possible coffee buying, petrol buying, car sharing but ignore the real benefits to people.

They dont ignore them. Of course they are aware of the benefits. But dont consider them to outweigh the downsides.

Sofa King Great

hotmail.com wrote: »

This isn't what opinion polls say.

I'm being flippant, because I'm just highlighting the annoying flip flop approach of so many Irish people.

They want restrictions but not for themselves. They asked for tighter restrictions back in January to eliminate the virus and the government gave it to them. Now they are moaning about the rules.

You can't win.

Back in January when we had thousands of cases a day and far higher numbers in hospital?

cheezums

hotmail.com wrote: »

This isn't what opinion polls say.

I'm being flippant, because I'm just highlighting the annoying flip flop approach of so many Irish people.

They want restrictions but not for themselves. They asked for tighter restrictions back in January to eliminate the virus and the government gave it to them. Now they are moaning about the rules.

You can't win.

like i said, i was supportive right up until a month ago. it now seems like we cannot get cases below 500-600 due to rapidly eroding public buy in. this was always the danger with the blanket lockdown approach. it is not sustainable.

if vaccines were being thrown out like candy bars then maybe people would buy in, but at current rates the country won't be vaccinated until sometime in 2022.

also there are clearly businesses and activities that are extremely low risk that no one (not even scientists) can understand why they are part of any disease control strategy. if we had some kind of targeted restrictions, again, maybe there would be more buy in.

TheDoctor

Hospital numbers at 8pm

Total 313 (down from 328 last night)
ICU 70 (up from 68 last night)

Last Monday
Total 342
ICU 80

hotmail.com

cheezums wrote: »

like i said, i was supportive right up until a month ago. it now seems like we cannot get cases below 500-600 due to rapidly eroding public buy in. this was always the danger with the blanket lockdown approach. it is not sustainable.

if vaccines were being thrown out like candy bars then maybe people would buy in, but at current rates the country won't be vaccinated until sometime in 2022.

also there are clearly businesses and activities that are extremely low risk that no one (not even scientists) can understand why they are part of any disease control strategy. if we had some kind of targeted restrictions, again, maybe there would be more buy in.

That's grand, but once there is a relaxation of restrictions and the cases go up, please don't moan about it and look for more restrictions again!

aziz

Kunta Kinte wrote: »

Correct.

Well now,you are just taking the piss

blowitupref

Hospital operations update

In hospital 313 (decrease of 15)

In ICU 70 (increase of 2 and 1 death in the last 24)

Last Monday

In hospital 342
In ICU 80

cheezums

hotmail.com wrote: »

That's grand, but once there is a relaxation of restrictions and the cases go up, please don't moan about it and look for more restrictions again!

a final point that many have made. there are counties where this thing is basically eradicated and there is no inter county travel. how hard is it to use the county level restrictions that they originally proposed? are we that ****ing incompetent we can't even manage that?

hotmail.com

cheezums wrote: »

a final point that many have made. there are counties where this thing is basically eradicated and there is no inter county travel. how hard is it to use the county level restrictions that they originally proposed? are we that ****ing incompetent we can't even manage that?

The country is too small for that.

We would be a region in Germany or France all on our own.

I've never agreed with the tight restrictions after the first lockdown, particularly the closing of schools and construction.

Ending stuff like golf and tennis was crazy too. Once you introduce it, it's difficult to reverse them. As Irish people are so annoying.

KrustyUCC

I do have to laugh at this part of the Indo article

"Another source at the meeting said Nphet urged ministers to “hold firm”. The source conceded there would only be a gradual easing of “very few restrictions” next month. “I think we didn’t lower expectations enough,” the source said.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/easing-lockdownnow-could-result-in-new-wave-of-covid-cases-lasting-until-mid-summer-nphet-warns-40254516.html?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=seeding&fbclid=IwAR3ofo71xfazH4veoNHUTlFJDGcHyntIHC_faIBjy4a9q0GXOq1lzxYc_Ic

Going to be brilliant in May after SFA easing of restrictions in April when they will try to lower expectations even further than the measly easing of restrictions proposed for April

PTH2009

hotmail.com wrote: »

A lot of people will be angry tomorrow the government is rejecting the advice of NPHET.

A large junk of people what the current restrictions to remain in place.

That's not happening

NPHET's advice wont be refused as the government are scared ****less of a repeat of Xmas 2020

Really hope i'm wrong but cant see it

gozunda

KrustyUCC wrote: »

See blowitups post above

Very little change in cases for much more testing

The more you test the more cases you'll find

See the pop up centres

NPHET don't want any changes

They have no care for the wellbeing of society or how hard the restrictions have been not the effort people have put in

4 months of not seeing friends, family, partners

If the government don't give small changes after 4 months of level 5 there's going to be a lot more people not adhering to the restrictions

The plateauing of new cases was evident before the "much more testing"

As for "The more you test the more cases you'll find"

Not quite ...

Experts warn the data must be treated with caution. Graham Medley, professor of infectious disease modelling at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said the relationship between the volume of testing and number of positives is complex.

“It does depend how the testing is targeted (who is being offered tests), and which individuals are agreeing to be tested, or coming forward requesting tests,” Medley said.

The point was echoed by a spokesperson for the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, who said that there can be numerous reasons for increased case numbers in some countries.

“It may reflect changes in surveillance strategies (e.g. increasing testing, changes in the case definition), increased sustained transmission, large localized outbreaks and importation of cases,” the spokesperson said. “It remains important to consider whether an increase in case notification rates is due to a change in testing methods or a true resurgence.”

the relationship between more testing and new cases isn’t always straightforward. In Finland, health workers doubled the number of tests carried out in the space of a month, and found that positive cases ticked downward. Likewise in the U.K. and Portugal.

https://www.politico.eu/article/does-more-coronavirus-testing-mean-more-cases/

I doubt that anyone wants restrictions. Those in Nphet also have families, loved ones, children.

Restrictions will be rolled back as vaccination numbers increase. As of today we still have a relatively small number vaccinated overall. And of the elderly and those who are medically of high risk many remain to be vaccinated and recieve their first and ,/ or second shots.

It may take some time. Until then we have to do the best we can.

Corholio

TheDoctor wrote: »

Hospital numbers at 8pm

Total 313 (down from 328 last night)
ICU 70 (up from 68 last night)

Last Monday
Total 342
ICU 80

Another week of both numbers falling, another week of both numbers relegated to stat fillers in terms of importance to some.

ShineOn7

Dev's gonna need extra servers for 6pm here tomorrow

The Government has been warned that lifting restrictions too early could cause another wave of Covid-19 lasting into the summer.

In a stark warning delivered to Ministers on Monday night by the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet), the Government was told that while the Irish vaccination programme is progressing relatively well by European standards, there is nowhere near enough protection at a population level in order to substantially relax restrictions.

However, if a four-to-eight week period of caution is observed, risks could be reduced by between 50 and 70 per cent. The advice is being considered by Government.

Meanwhile, the HSE told the Government that it would struggle to meet key healthcare goals if confronted with another wave of the disease, such as running a healthcare service catering for non-Covid needs.

More here https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/nphet-gives-stark-warning-that-lifting-restrictions-too-early-could-cause-fresh-covid-wave-lasting-into-summer-1.4522864

Kunta Kinte

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Dev's gonna need extra servers for 6pm here tomorrow




More here https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/nphet-gives-stark-warning-that-lifting-restrictions-too-early-could-cause-fresh-covid-wave-lasting-into-summer-1.4522864

Yep. If the government follows goes along with the NPHET advice the outrage from certain quarters will be off the scale.

Maxface

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Dev's gonna need extra servers for 6pm here tomorrow




More here https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/nphet-gives-stark-warning-that-lifting-restrictions-too-early-could-cause-fresh-covid-wave-lasting-into-summer-1.4522864

We have already moved from 4-6 weeks to 4-8 and that's just the leaks. Gonna be fun tomorrow.

Oranage2

Corholio wrote: »

Another week of both numbers falling, another week of both numbers relegated to stat fillers in terms of importance to some.

The problem with today's figures are that they're the result of the daily cases 2-3 weeks ago. Our rising numbers this week will be seen in rising hospital numbers in 2-3 weeks time.

This is like a ship, you've to start turning the wheel well in advance

Deeper Blue

Oranage2 wrote: »

The problem with today's figures are that they're the result of the daily cases 2-3 weeks ago. Our rising numbers this week will be seen in rising hospital numbers in 2-3 weeks time.

This is like a ship, you've to start turning the wheel well in advance

The amount of people vaccinated should prevent this to a certain extent

spookwoman

Deeper Blue wrote: »

The amount of people vaccinated should prevent this to a certain extent

Not really. If you go back over the age hospitalised for the last few weeks the under 65's are being hospitalized more than the 65+ on a 7 day running total. last week a mess because of the amount of hospitalisations removed. About mid Feb there was a change from 65+ going into hospital.

prunudo

I think, for the health of my mind, today will be a day to introduce new restrictions, namely to restrict the amount of news articles and covid threads I listen, view or read.

Doctor Jimbob

prunudo wrote: »

I think, for the health of my mind, today will be a day to introduce new restrictions, namely to restrict the amount of news articles and covid threads I listen, view or read.

Don't worry, we just have to wait another few weeks until May. Just like we had to wait another few weeks until April. And another few weeks until March.

In May, we'll have to wait another few weeks until June to make sure the latest new variant doesn't ruin our vaccine progress. In June, we'll have to wait a few weeks because there's concern around the fact that the weekly average has increased from 7 to 7.5. In July, just hold firm for a few weeks until August - Stephen Donnelly heard someone cough on the street and you can't be too careful. Sure by that point the schools will nearly be open and we better not rush things in case that causes an increase, and once we're past that it's nearly Christmas and we don't want a repeat of last Christmas, do we?

caveat emptor

I don't think county level restrictions would work. It sounds offaly like zero covid. What would happen the local super value? We'd have to intern truck drivers and that's not feasible. Unfortunately Cork and Kerry share a border with a different jurisdiction and there is freedom of movement for essential reasons.

Frankly people advocating county level zero covid need to be interrogated on what that actually means. :rolleyes:

Have we being conditioned into believing that a slight relaxation of travel restrictions and reopening construction is not lockdown?

That’s very much still lockdown and will likely last 8 weeks.

At the end of that time, we’ll have spent 7 out of 8 months locked down!!!

quartz1

As another poster commented today is a day to stay away from the News. The Government .have no imagination, no ideas, no plans and sadly.few vaccines. I will comsole myself that someday it will end and someday there will be a ballot paper and election.

Doctor Jimbob

quartz1 wrote: »

As another poster commented today is a day to stay away from the News. The Government .have no imagination, no ideas, no plans and sadly.few vaccines. I will comsole myself that someday it will end and someday there will be a ballot paper and election.

You mean you aren't looking forward to the headmaster's speech this evening telling us we're all in detention for another few weeks because some of the class can't behave? Personally I can't wait.

blowitupref

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

You mean you aren't looking forward to the headmaster's speech this evening telling us we're all in detention for another few weeks because some of the class can't behave? Personally I can't wait.

We should organise a guessing game on how many times Mr Martin says variants and cautious in todays public address

podgeandrodge

RTE:

"Changes are expected to be limited as concern remains about a possible fourth wave of Covid.

The five-day average of cases stands at 620, while the number of new cases has been over 600 for five of the past six days.
However, the Government wants to offer some hope to a fed-up public.

Mr Martin will also set out a plan for a broader relaxation in May and June with the return of non-essential retail, outdoor dining and personal services, but no dates will be attached to it.

It is hoped this time will be the last appeal for people to hold firm as the vaccination programme ramps up significantly."

"In addition, there has been an increased level in the referrals of children.

Ms O'Beirne commented that there has been quite an increase in mass testing of children, as a result of index cases in schools, but that this has "really low positivity levels". She said the five new walk-in centres have been really well received and the overall positivity rate is 3%. Although Blanchardstown initially had a higher positivity rating, it has now come in line with the other centres. She said most people who have tested positive are asymptomatic and a much younger cohort is presenting for testing, with people between the ages of 25 and 44 making up 41% of those coming forward for testing."

bennyl10

Morning Ireland news saying inter county by mid April

podgeandrodge

In good news, depending on your viewpoint:

"The risk of onward transmission of Covid-19 seems to be reduced in those who are vaccinated, according to a technical review published today by the European Centre for Disease Control.

It also said today that Covid-19 re-infections are rare.

The ECDC said that while the impact of the new variants on transmission patterns needs to be closely monitored, it is expected that the total number of infections will significantly decrease as vaccination coverage increases.

It said that evidence of the impact of vaccination is available from one study which suggests that vaccination of a household member reduces the risk of infection in susceptible household members by at least 30%."

is_that_so

Assuming he does speak, I'm not sure Martin can get the tone right at all and will more likely front load it with the very limited changes and keep claiming to understand how difficult it is. Of more importance will be how they intend the rest of the plan to work and probable intervals. One would really hope we don't get a lot of June, 9 weeks away, will be so much better. That said NPHET are pushing a better life in 8-12 weeks so he's corralled to an extent. Even so the real risk of not offering at least a modicum of hope is that people will really abandon compliance in larger numbers.