Covid 19 Part XXXIV-249,437 ROI(4,906 deaths) 120,195 NI (2,145 deaths)(01/05)Read OP

DTownD

robbiezero wrote: »

What evidence is there of that?
The only way we would have avoided that "wave" was to stay in lockdown since October.
It was coming regardless only our lot compressed it all into the space of about 3 weeks with a very smart Level 5 lockdown in November and the promise of another one in January.

Exactly, and even if we followed NPHET's advice, which allowed indoor household visits in December, there would still have been a very serious wave.

Doctor Jimbob

hotmail.com wrote: »

Boards and the twitter influencers seemed to want stricter rules. The opinion polls also suggest support for lockdown measures.

Yet, they then complain about them. A lot of the influencers are staying quiet this week I notice. Ready to moan with whatever decision is made today.

a) Boards and twitter are not hive minds.

b) When people were calling for stricter enforcement, I have a feeling they might have been referring to cracking down on the likes of weddings and funerals with large numbers rather than annoying people on their way to work.

JRant

flanna01 wrote: »

Of course you are aware that out Government doesn't have the vast supply of vaccine's that say our neighbours have...?

You are aware of that aren't you..??

So, assuming that you indeed do not reside under a rock somewhere, and are aware of the consequences of not playing safe, how would you suggest the Government react?

We have very little Vaccine at the moment. Hopefully this will improve going forward - But at the moment we are vulnerable.

The Government are not scolding you, they are protecting you.

This may come as a surprise to you but not everyone needs the government to protect them.

yourdeadwright

yourdeadwright wrote: »

How many people at this stage would have had Covid and not have know ?
It must be an absolutely massive number ,

Based on the numbers we have seen I would estimate there have been 7-800k cases in the country.

Below is chart showing how I estimated - assumed global studies showing an IFR of c.0.6% are accurate and also that deaths occur on average 20 days after case confirmed - therefore only brings data up to 20 days ago.

You can see the massive gap in wave 1 where we were not testing, for wave 2 there is not much between the estimated and actual figures which may indicate very good detection, but death rates at this time were low, meaning the accuracy of the estimate would have been lower. You can also see the gap between the actual and estimate increased when we stopped testing contacts but has since reduced.

show me the money.1

Will the opposition come out and criticise the slow reopening or will they stay under their rock and keep saying nothing???

Doctor Jimbob

show me the money.1 wrote: »

Will the opposition come out and criticise the slow reopening or will they stay under their rock and keep saying nothing???

They'll probably say it's too fast.

CIARAN_BOYLE

KrustyUCC wrote: »

NPHET's plan was painfully slow even them

3 weeks inbetween opening of homeward and hardware stores was a joke

NPHET wanted 4 weeks inbetween reopening too

Our painfully slow reopening would have been worse if NPHET got their way

When it comes to it reopening things like hairdressers, intercounty travel, hospitality latervon in the year NPHET will be over cautious again I'm predicting

True the plan was slow.

It was to ensure decent data for finding the point when r=1.

It made sense if you were going to find r=1 and stay there.

It didn't make sense if that wasn't the plan.

I like to see a plan. If NPHET and government came out and said we are staying in level 5 until the bulk is vaccinated I'd be happier that I know what the plan is.

I'd think its a **** plan but I'd see a plan and approve of the fact that it exists.

gozunda

Sofa King Great wrote: »

​do you not think it is reasonable to expect the government to come up with more than a "give it a few more weeks and we will review again" type plan after over a year?

Well let me see ...... hmmmmm. I know they could keep the rate of infection down whilst we roll out what's it called now? Eh oh yeah vaccination!

Covid isn't going away by itself and if in the short term we have manage numbers by keeping infection to a minimum- then that's what is necessary. And no its not easy. Its bloody hard on everyone.

JRant

[Deleted User] wrote: »

2021 is turning out to be worse than 2020.

At least in 2020 there was a real sense that you couldn’t just expect people to lockdown for months on end. We came out of lockdown briefly and government were reluctant to go back in to lockdown.

2021 is just a complete write off. We’ll be almost half way through before even Construction is open. I imagine restrictions in some form will last all year with our ultra ultra ultra terrified to do anything conservative approach.

People have being conditioned at this point to think that a 20km travel restriction is great news...

We deserve all the hell we face in the years ahead. No doubt we’ll try to blame Covid instead of our inept response.

There will come a time when the vast majority of people are vaccinated that the legality of the existing powers being exercised by the government comes in to question. Despite what they might like to think they don't have the power to indefinitely suspend constitutional rights. There may need to be a number of legal challenges before they relinquish these powers though.

Rosita

Deleted User wrote: »

People have being conditioned at this point to think that a 20km travel restriction is great news...

Given that the 20k travel restriction would relate to exercise I'd say it would be great news. Since shops and businesses are closed anyway precluding a lot of need to travel, and much essential travel is allowed this restriction has no real other relevance. But we seem to have some amount of long-distance runners in our population and 20k would suit them.

KrustyUCC

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

I like to see a plan. If NPHET and government came out and said we are staying in level 5 until the bulk is vaccinated I'd be happier that I know what the plan is.

I'd think its a **** plan but I'd see a plan and approve of the fact that it exists.

Agreed

We'd all like to see the plan

However the government won't give dates or the metrics to get things reopen

Compare what we have to Germany

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thelocal.de/20210304/explained-this-is-germanys-five-step-plan-to-head-out-of-shutdown/%3famp

Dates with what can open depending on the level of infection

I know plans can change but no reason we couldn't have similar

Give structure and things to work towards

Not sure we'll look at items but won't have any dates or metrics to the public

The government and NPHET have no issue putting 4,6,8 week periods in place for not easing restrictions

lawred2

yourdeadwright wrote: »

Remember when learning to live with Covid was a thing , Such positive times

level 5 to the bitter end is what the Irish government learned...

lawred2

gozunda wrote: »

Well let me see ...... hmmmmm. I know they could keep the rate of infection down whilst we roll out what's it called now? Eh oh yeah vaccination!

Covid isn't going away by itself and if in the short term we have manage numbers by keeping infection to a minimum- then that's what is necessary. And no its not easy. Its bloody hard on everyone.

it's easier on some

hmmm

Golfman64 wrote: »

There’s a massive difference though between Christmas when no one was vaccinated

There isn't really, we only have a small percentage of people vaccinated. We'll be in better shape in 6 to 8 weeks.

The government can't wish the virus away. This isn't about "rewarding" people for being good children, this is everyone taking responsibility and not making this out to be some sort of penance that the government is inflicting on us.

Israel is a good example of this done properly - 50% vaccinated, widespread reopening with some restrictions.

MerlinSouthDub

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Agreed

We'd all like to see the plan

However the government won't give dates or the metrics to get things reopen

Compare what we have to Germany

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thelocal.de/20210304/explained-this-is-germanys-five-step-plan-to-head-out-of-shutdown/%3famp

Dates with what can open depending on the level of infection

I know plans can change but no reason we couldn't have similar

Give structure and things to work towards

Not sure we'll look at items but won't have any dates or metrics to the public

The government and NPHET have no issue putting 4,6,8 week periods in place for not easing restrictions

Germany aren't a great example. Firstly, they keep changing their plan. Only last week Angela Merkel had to apologise for making a decision and the immediately reversing it. Also, their plan is based on infection rates which doesn't make much sense if vaccines are rolling out.

KrustyUCC

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Germany aren't a great example. Firstly, they keep changing their plan. Only last week Angela Merkel had to apologise for making a decision and the immediately reversing it. Also, their plan is based on infection rates which doesn't make much sense if vaccines are rolling out.

True in some ways

Still far more of a plan than we have

gozunda

[Deleted User] wrote: »

2021 is turning out to be worse than 2020.

At least in 2020 there was a real sense that you couldn’t just expect people to lockdown for months on end. We came out of lockdown briefly and government were reluctant to go back in to lockdown.

2021 is just a complete write off. We’ll be almost half way through before even Construction is open. I imagine restrictions in some form will last all year with our ultra ultra ultra terrified to do anything conservative approach.

People have being conditioned at this point to think that a 20km travel restriction is great news...

We deserve all the hell we face in the years ahead. No doubt we’ll try to blame Covid instead of our inept response.

Oh no were still in the midst of a global pandemic and you're seriously surprised we're still in **** creek?

Countries which haven't been cautious in the EU are now reaping a massive rise in the rate of infections. Just today the French medical personnel have said that there health service there is being pulverised.

https://www.mail.com/int/scitech/health/10658028-paris-doctors-warn-catastrophic-overload-virus-cas.html#.1272-stage-mostviewed1-4

And yes we're moving towards vaccinating all those that need it. And doing what is necessary to keep the rate of infection down. There's a surprise.

This bs about "our ultra ultra ultra terrified" and being "conditioned" is the usual sthick used by let it rip advocates. Many of who've been on that exact same rant since the pandemic started. But what's new eh.

Klonker

hmmm wrote: »

The government responded before Christmas to the polls showing people wanted a relaxation of restrictions, and that cost us months in lockdown as a consequence and a large number of deaths from Covid.

Hopefully whatever approach they take this time will be cautious, and they ask the decent people in the country to wait until vaccinations are more fully rolled out before a large relaxation of measures. I think people will understand this, and sure if they don't they won't get to blame the government this time if case numbers take off.

It wouldn't matter what the case numbers were now, even if they were 100 a day NPHET wouldn't be advocating for any more easing of restrictions. They're just waiting until the whole country is vaccinated. Case numbers, hospitalisations and ICU numbers are irrelevant. Wait until we get through this 6 weeks and all vulnerable are vaccinated. Then it'll be oh we need to wait until they get a 2nd dose even though we all know the first dose does the heavy lifting, especially in terms of severe disease. The it'll be until all adults are vaccinated. Ronan Glynn has already said that 3.5% of cases will need hospitalisation even after all elderly and vulnerable are vaccinated, a totally unsubstantiated figure by the way. Good luck getting their data to back that up. And then it'll be oh we need to wait until all children are vaccinated and then it'll be winter and we need to be cautious to avoid another winter surge.

Where do we draw the line?

prunudo

Rosita wrote: »

Given that the 20k travel restriction would relate to exercise I'd say it would be great news. Since shops and businesses are closed anyway precluding a lot of need to travel, and much essential travel is allowed this restriction has no real other relevance. But we seem to have some amount of long-distance runners in our population and 20k would suit them.

Plenty of cyclists too, after 3 months, 5km radius doesn't be long about getting boring when you're trying to do over 50km spins.

bennyineire

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Germany aren't a great example. Firstly, they keep changing their plan. Only last week Angela Merkel had to apologise for making a decision and the immediately reversing it. Also, their plan is based on infection rates which doesn't make much sense if vaccines are rolling out.

Plus Germany is made up of 16 states each with it's own local laws and approach to lockdowns

ShineOn7

Sun is shining lads and it's much cooler from tomorrow so may as well unplug yourself from Covid news for at least 6 hours

Apart from how we protect ourselves and loved ones, we've fcuk all control over any of this anyway

It's just wasted Internet energy on a day like today

MerlinSouthDub

bennyineire wrote: »

Plus Germany is made up of 16 states each with it's own local laws and approach to lockdowns

I think we are living in some kind of fantasy bubble where we think Ireland is doing a much worse job than other countries in Europe. Every country in Europe (plus UK, US and all of South America) has done a crap job at this. On any reasonable relative basis, we've done ok (and better on deaths) than most other places.

gozunda

gozunda wrote: »

Oh no were still in the midst of a global pandemic and you're seriously surprised we're still in **** creek?

Countries which haven't been cautious in the EU are now reaping a massive rise in the rate of infections. Just today the French medical personnel have said that there health service there is being pulverised.

https://www.mail.com/int/scitech/health/10658028-paris-doctors-warn-catastrophic-overload-virus-cas.html#.1272-stage-mostviewed1-4

And yes we're moving towards vaccinating all those that need it. And doing what is necessary to keep the rate of infection down. There's a surprise.

This bs about "our ultra ultra ultra terrified" and being "conditioned" is the usual sthick used by let it rip advocates. Many of who've been on that exact same rant since the pandemic started. But what's new eh.

We are not in **** creek at all though. We have only 70 in ICU in a country of 5M. 300 odd in hospital.

We are literally looking under rocks trying to find “Cases”.

I’d much rather be in a country that offers its people freedoms and then locks down when it’s required as opposed to just staying in lockdown so they don’t have to lockdown again.

Turtwig

Fact of the matter is every country is reliant almost exclusively on vaccination to get them out of the sh1thole they're in.

Our situation is our situation. Last week over 100,000 vaccine doses were administered. That pace will accelerate. Then we'll have even more viable options for things to vastly improve.

Until then aside from regional relaxation there's little wiggle room. I think they should try a regional reduction. I can understand why they're reluctant to risk it. Our national infection level is still very high even if it mostly concentrated in a few locations. Exponential growth doesn't look much at first. Then it's too late.

A fourth wave at this point would be catastrophic. Completely unnecessary too.

We're almost out of this mess. Almosttt. Find it very difficult to grasp people's pessimism for the summer. Yeah there is a chance something could go wrong. Very little at this point suggests this will be the case.

This sh1t has a potential end in sight. It's an overly long Lord of the rings extended edition ending. It's still an ending.

(Provided a variant or recombinant does not fck us up. We need to have preparations to prevent that!)

Wolf359f

Deleted User wrote: »

There has been a clear lag on wave 2 and 3. The only reason it wasn't there on wave 1 was because of testing

Do I see over 200 admissions at peak in Jan?
When I look at admissions vs cases I see this:

Sofa King Great

gozunda wrote: »

Well let me see ...... hmmmmm. I know they could keep the rate of infection down whilst we roll out what's it called now? Eh oh yeah vaccination!

Covid isn't going away by itself and if in the short term we have manage numbers by keeping infection to a minimum- then that's what is necessary. And no its not easy. Its bloody hard on everyone.

So what's the plan around opening up when the vaccinations are administered? How many need to be administered before click and collect can start? How many have to be administered before construction can start? To say we have a plan around vaccinations is disingenuous

stephenjmcd

NPHET have recommended the addition of more countries to the quarantine list.

We all know NPHET have been at this for a while so it remains to be seen if government will actually contemplate it or not. My money is on not as it would cause serious diplomatic issues with major EU countries

https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1376844838520434689?s=19

AdamD

Turtwig wrote: »

Fact of the matter is every country is reliant almost exclusively on vaccination to get them out of the sh1thole they're in.

Our situation is our situation. Last week over 100,000 vaccine doses were administered. That pace will accelerate. Then we'll have even more viable options for things to vastly improve.

Until then aside from regional relaxation there's little wiggle room. I think they should try a regional reduction. I can understand why they're reluctant to risk it. Our national infection level is still very high even if it mostly concentrated in a few locations. Exponential growth doesn't look much at first. Then it's too late.

A fourth wave at this point would be catastrophic. Completely unnecessary too.

We're almost out of this mess. Almosttt. Find it very difficult to grasp people's pessimism for the summer. Yeah there is a chance something could go wrong. Very little at this point suggests this will be the case.

This sh1t has a potential end in sight. It's an overly long Lord of the rings extended edition ending. It's still an ending.

(Provided a variant or recombinant does not fck us up. We need to have preparations to prevent that!)

Because the goverment have tried their utmost to make it sound like summer will be crap?

On one hand saying we'll have 80% of adults receiving a dose by end of June, and on another saying we can look forward to a summer of outdoor activities and we might see hospitality open (outside) by mid summer? That doesn't add up and when they say things like that it becomes clear their cautious strategy will continue even when we have huge numbers vaccinated.


I can absolutely see the logic in saying don't open up now, we're so close, 8 more weeks could see 1.5m more vaccines etc.

However, the current formula is to loosen some rules and wait 6 (?!) weeks until considering more changes. So we wait until Mid-May to consider anything:

Mid-May - level 4
End of June - level 3
Mid-August - ?

Just arriving into level 3 with that many vaccines adminstered wouldn't make me excited for the summer ahead and is cautious beyond belief. If I had any faith that they would speed things up in the future I could get behind this logic of waiting another 4-8 weeks, but I just don't.

Klonker

Turtwig wrote: »

Fact of the matter is every country is reliant almost exclusively on vaccination to get them out of the sh1thole they're in.

Our situation is our situation. Last week over 100,000 vaccine doses were administered. That pace will accelerate. Then we'll have even more viable options for things to vastly improve.

Until then aside from regional relaxation there's little wiggle room. I think they should try a regional reduction. I can understand why they're reluctant to risk it. Our national infection level is still very high even if it mostly concentrated in a few locations. Exponential growth doesn't look much at first. Then it's too late.

A fourth wave at this point would be catastrophic. Completely unnecessary too.

We're almost out of this mess. Almosttt. Find it very difficult to grasp people's pessimism for the summer. Yeah there is a chance something could go wrong. Very little at this point suggests this will be the case.

This sh1t has a potential end in sight. It's an overly long Lord of the rings extended edition ending. It's still an ending.

(Provided a variant or recombinant does not fck us up. We need to have preparations to prevent that!)

So I take it you are optimistic for the summer? I'm curious to what this translates too. Would you be happy with outdoor dining/socialising for the summer or would you be disappointed if indoor restaurant dining as it was last summer wasn't allowed at all this summer? And what about visits to other houses? And pubs reopening?

I'm asking because I'm curious to what people's expectations are. There seems a general thinking in my opinion at least, that we'll get back to last summer at the worst, as we can see how great the vaccines are working worldwide. But then you hear random comments from NPHET and government about an outdoor summer and its hard to know what their plan is. Seems a lot of mix messaging and its hard to know how to manage our expectations.

LuckyGent88

stephenjmcd wrote: »

NPHET have recommended the addition of more countries to the quarantine list.

We all know NPHET have been at this for a while so it remains to be seen if government will actually contemplate it or not. My money is on not as it would cause serious diplomatic issues with major EU countries

https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1376844838520434689?s=19

Hopefully not for Germany anyway or at least only a very temporary measure. At this stage Iv no idea when my daughter will see her grandfather again. At least my missus (kindergarten teacher) got her vaccine today.