Covid 19 Part XXXIV-249,437 ROI(4,906 deaths) 120,195 NI (2,145 deaths)(01/05)Read OP

Wolf359f

Wolf359f wrote: »

Do I see over 200 admissions at peak in Jan?
When I look at admissions vs cases I see this:

Mine is daily change in total hospitalisations - would include cases detected in hospital

Amirani

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

There is no country in Europe (or the US, UK) which has put in place a successful track and trace system. It's one of those ideas which sounds great in theory, but is really really hard to do in practice. The only democratic country which has done it well is South Korea but it did things which would be completely unacceptable and illegal here - accessing all of person's private date, mobile phone data, credit card data etc etc - and isolating people with covid away from their families in containment centres.

Yeah exactly this.

"Track and trace" seems to be a panacea to everything for some people. The reality is it only works when cases are low (as it gets using during outbreaks in Australia and NZ) and/or you're willing to disregard all elements of privacy and civil liberties (as per your South Korea example).

The fact that no country on Earth has managed to implement without 1 or both of the above conditions shows that it's not some simple fix that Government should have made.

Sofa King Great

Amirani wrote: »

Yeah exactly this.

"Track and trace" seems to be a panacea to everything for some people. The reality is it only works when cases are low (as it gets using during outbreaks in Australia and NZ) and/or you're willing to disregard all elements of privacy and civil liberties (as per your South Korea example).

The fact that no country on Earth has managed to implement without 1 or both of the above conditions shows that it's not some simple fix that Government should have made.

Oh well if it cannot be done perfectly then why bother at all

JP Liz V1

stephenjmcd wrote: »

NPHET have recommended the addition of more countries to the quarantine list.

We all know NPHET have been at this for a while so it remains to be seen if government will actually contemplate it or not. My money is on not as it would cause serious diplomatic issues with major EU countries

https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1376844838520434689?s=19

A year too late with Italy

https://twitter.com/Independent_ie/status/1376844806022905857

gozunda

hmmm wrote: »

There isn't really, we only have a small percentage of people vaccinated. We'll be in better shape in 6 to 8 weeks.

The government can't wish the virus away. This isn't about "rewarding" people for being good children, this is everyone taking responsibility and not making this out to be some sort of penance that the government is inflicting on us.

Israel is a good example of this done properly - 50% vaccinated, widespread reopening with some restrictions.

^^^^ This.

stephenjmcd

LuckyGent88 wrote: »

Hopefully not for Germany anyway or at least only a very temporary measure. At this stage Iv no idea when my daughter will see her grandfather again. At least my missus (kindergarten teacher) got her vaccine today.

Independent reporting that if it came to pass they stress it's temporary, however there's big implications for trade according to the IDA and there's concerns in government over diplomatic relations so I guess we'll soon see

Doctor Jimbob

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Independent reporting that if it came to pass they stress it's temporary, however there's big implications for trade according to the IDA and there's concerns in government so I guess we'll soon see

My wife has been looking forward to seeing her mother in the US who has seriously ill over the past year. If this comes in she might not be able to. It's getting extremely hard to take. This should all have been brought in last year. If it's brought in now, I have no faith at all in it being lifted by the summer given how slow we are to move on anything.

robbiezero

gozunda wrote: »

Oh no were still in the midst of a global pandemic and you're seriously surprised we're still in **** creek?

So if we are still in **** creek what were in, in January?

Hulk Hands

Turtwig wrote: »

Fact of the matter is every country is reliant almost exclusively on vaccination to get them out of the sh1thole they're in.

Our situation is our situation. Last week over 100,000 vaccine doses were administered. That pace will accelerate. Then we'll have even more viable options for things to vastly improve.

Until then aside from regional relaxation there's little wiggle room. I think they should try a regional reduction. I can understand why they're reluctant to risk it. Our national infection level is still very high even if it mostly concentrated in a few locations. Exponential growth doesn't look much at first. Then it's too late.

A fourth wave at this point would be catastrophic. Completely unnecessary too.

We're almost out of this mess. Almosttt. Find it very difficult to grasp people's pessimism for the summer. Yeah there is a chance something could go wrong. Very little at this point suggests this will be the case.

This sh1t has a potential end in sight. It's an overly long Lord of the rings extended edition ending. It's still an ending.

(Provided a variant or recombinant does not fck us up. We need to have preparations to prevent that!)

Why would a 4th wave be catastrophic? This seems like an easy alarming tag line from people without questioning the bare reasons for saying it. From the very start this has been said to be about two things: Protecting the small percentage of very vulnerable and protecting the health service.

The most vulnerable have now been vaccinated and with devastating success judging by numbers out of Israel and the UK. A 4th wave would now be an inconvenience that should probably be avoided and almost certainly would be with a moderate reopening for April while we get another million vaccines done. It would not be catastrophic by any stretch if the vaccines are as important and successful as we're being told. And everything should return to normal regardless of the largely irrelevant case numbers from May onwards

MerlinSouthDub

Sofa King Great wrote: »

Oh well if it cannot be done perfectly then why bother at all

It cannot be done effectively - we know this. Every country in Europe has tried to do it (within the constraints of privacy, data protection etc), no-one has succeeded.

By all means, waste a load of time, money and people on something we are certain won't work.

stephenjmcd

stephenjmcd wrote: »

NPHET have recommended the addition of more countries to the quarantine list.

We all know NPHET have been at this for a while so it remains to be seen if government will actually contemplate it or not. My money is on not as it would cause serious diplomatic issues with major EU countries

https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1376844838520434689?s=19

I don’t see the US being added. Numbers there much the same as Ireland and a massive vaccination programme underway. UK government is talking about the US being a travel and holiday destination for Brits before Europe is

timmyntc

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

It cannot be done effectively - we know this. Every country in Europe has tried to do it (within the constraints of privacy, data protection etc), no-one has succeeded.

By all means, waste a load of time, money and people on something we are certain won't work.

It wont be a panacea but it absolutely can be done better than is being done here.
here they only look for contacts within prev 48hrs of you testing positive. There is no hope of catching chain of transmission if you only look at 48hrs.

zebastein

gozunda wrote: »

Oh no were still in the midst of a global pandemic and you're seriously surprised we're still in **** creek?

Countries which haven't been cautious in the EU are now reaping a massive rise in the rate of infections. Just today the French medical personnel have said that there health service there is being pulverised.



And yes we're moving towards vaccinating all those that need it. And doing what is necessary to keep the rate of infection down. There's a surprise.

This bs about "our ultra ultra ultra terrified" and being "conditioned" is the usual sthick used by let it rip advocates. Many of who've been on that exact same rant since the pandemic started. But what's new eh.

I really enjoy how the news from other countries are filtered in the way that interest Irish media.

The health service is not pulverised. Parts of the country have an incidence rate between 50 and 150. There are 101 counties ("departements") in France and only 19 have a lockdown, which is less severe than here in Ireland.

But more interestingly: though the number of people in hospital and ICU has increased in France, the daily deaths have decreased by 1/3 since the beginning of February.

They have managed to avoid a lockdown, they did not see a massive spike of cases, but more a slow increase that can be controlled by reactive restrictions and that does not translate into spike of deaths.

Jinglejangle69

EU ain't happy.

Hope it doesn't come back to bite us

caveat emptor

Listening to Claire Byrne there. Sea swimming has been touted as being very good for the health. Don't worry if sea is beyond your 5km apparently you can get the same benefit through having a cold shower. :eek:

Sofa King Great

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

It cannot be done effectively - we know this. Every country in Europe has tried to do it (within the constraints of privacy, data protection etc), no-one has succeeded.

By all means, waste a load of time, money and people on something we are certain won't work.

So up to last week they only went back 2 days. Would it not be the case that going back even 3 days would catch up to 50% more close contacts?

Roger_007

caveat emptor wrote: »

Listening to Claire Byrne there. Sea swimming has been touted as being very good for the health. Don't worry if sea is beyond your 5km apparently you can get the same benefit through having a cold shower. :eek:

An added advantage would be that afaik nobody has ever drowned in the shower!

ninebeanrows

It's quite hilarious really.

Europe and the world trying to put plans together to open up society and travel corridors

Ireland deciding to put up the draw bridge.

Embarrassing.

Once the UK isn't on the list there will be many ways to get around or work with the rules anyway.

kleiner feigling

Can we get real here.
Just as there are consequences of taking a “let it rip” approach (which I don’t think anyone here is actually pushing for)
….there are equally severe consequences of the current softly softly approach.

How the hell are we supposed to pay for this for a start?
Large numbers of indigenous businesses will never reopen…. And surely click and collect would have helped keep some of these afloat without impacting hospitalisations.
Poorer groups will have had their finances decimated by being forced onto PUP and the like.
Not to mention the litany of serious health conditions which have been ignored or untreated, and the level of physical and mental deconditioning experienced by those who’ve been locked away for a year at this stage.
These things equate to death and abysmal quality of life.

I don’t have kids, but worry for those who’ve been robbed of normal childhoods, and subjected to psychological tyranny over a virus that doesn’t directly harm them.
Seriously, what impact will this have into the coming decades?

I’ve already seen an increase in search and rescue operations locally for suicides by drowning.
The “hold firm” approach is not a cautious one. It has extremely harmful side-effects which will no doubt come to light when it’s too late to correct.

Pussyhands

11521323 wrote: »

Extremely concerning, very worrying, scary.

Stubbornly high case numbers.

NPHET are getting increasingly concerned.

Asked to re-double our efforts.

Worrying signs on the 7 day moving average

Referrals are the canary in the mine.

Next 2 weeks are absolutely crucial.

kleiner feigling

kleiner feigling wrote: »

Can we get real here.
Just as there are consequences of taking a “let it rip” approach (which I don’t think anyone here is actually pushing for)
….there are equally severe consequences of the current softly softly approach.

How the hell are we supposed to pay for this for a start?
Large numbers of indigenous businesses will never reopen…. And surely click and collect would have helped keep some of these afloat without impacting hospitalisations.
Poorer groups will have had their finances decimated by being forced onto PUP and the like.
Not to mention the litany of serious health conditions which have been ignored or untreated, and the level of physical and mental deconditioning experienced by those who’ve been locked away for a year at this stage.
These things equate to death and abysmal quality of life.

I don’t have kids, but worry for those who’ve been robbed of normal childhoods, and subjected to psychological tyranny over a virus that doesn’t directly harm them.
Seriously, what impact will this have into the coming decades?

I’ve already seen an increase in search and rescue operations locally for suicides by drowning.
The “hold firm” approach is not a cautious one. It has extremely harmful side-effects which will no doubt come to light when it’s too late to correct.

It’s all about COVID. Nothing else matters any more.

ninebeanrows

There'll probably be 30 daily London -> Belfast flights this summer the way we are going!

11521323

kleiner feigling wrote: »

How the hell are we supposed to pay for this .

That's an easy one, we're going to pay for it over the next 10 years.

The same intellectually deficient individuals advocating for longer lockdowns at this stage will be the same ones moaning when their tax increases. This country really is unique, no other Government would get away with the **** they're pulling in Ireland.

Allinall

11521323 wrote: »

That's an easy one, we're going to pay for it over the next 10 years.

The same intellectually deficient individuals advocating for longer lockdowns at this stage will be the same ones moaning when their tax increases. This country really is unique, no other Government would get away with the **** they're pulling in Ireland.

Virtually every other government in Europe is doing similar to what we are doing, economy wise.

timmyntc

11521323 wrote: »

That's an easy one, we're going to pay for it over the next 10 years.

The same intellectually deficient individuals advocating for longer lockdowns at this stage will be the same ones moaning when their tax increases. This country really is unique, no other Government would get away with the **** they're pulling in Ireland.

"We all partied"
"We're all in this together"
"The next 5 years of debt repayment are crucial"

timmyntc

Allinall wrote: »

Virtually every other government in Europe is doing similar to what we are doing, economy wise.

No other country in Europe closed their construction industry.
Nor did they have anywhere near as many businesses kept shut for as long.

Has any other country borrowed as much (per capita) as us during the pandemic?

11521323

11521323 wrote: »

That's an easy one, we're going to pay for it over the next 10 years.

The same intellectually deficient individuals advocating for longer lockdowns at this stage will be the same ones moaning when their tax increases. This country really is unique, no other Government would get away with the **** they're pulling in Ireland.

The COVID surcharge piled on top of the existing surcharge. It’s a pretty bleak vista we are facing into, and of course will have a massive impact on public health. But because future public health impacts are not as immediately tangible as a COVID death today, then no one in NPHET or the government has the spine to consider them and rebalance our current approach to COVID

Doctor Jimbob

timmyntc wrote: »

"We all partied"
"We're all in this together"
"The next 5 years of debt repayment are crucial"

Once an investigation gets launched, NPHET will be fired under the bus. "We were just following their advice" Martin and co will say, safe in the knowledge that they've managed to absolve themselves of all responsibility.

Doctor Jimbob

timmyntc wrote: »

No other country in Europe closed their construction industry.
Nor did they have anywhere near as many businesses kept shut for as long.

Has any other country borrowed as much (per capita) as us during the pandemic?

No, every country are doing the same or worse than us in every way.

The man on RTE said so.

Amirani

Sofa King Great wrote: »

So up to last week they only went back 2 days. Would it not be the case that going back even 3 days would catch up to 50% more close contacts?

No, because people are most infectious in and around when they become symptomatic. Going back 2 days before this point covers a majority of people's contacts.

Going back 3 would capture a bit more in some cases, but nowhere near 50% more.