Covid 19 Part XXXIV-249,437 ROI(4,906 deaths) 120,195 NI (2,145 deaths)(01/05)Read OP

OwenM

“Stable but precarious..... R number now standing between 1.0-1.3”

ednwireland wrote: »

ah good to hear the old favourites

Did Nolan actually state that again? It's a f**king ridiculous statement, basically saying it's not growing at all or it's growing rapidly - we haven't a clue really.......

Lucas Hood

6 new walk in test centers announced

Finglas
Crumlin
Balbriggan
Athlone
Ballinasloe
Navan

One more in works for Kildare.

pauldry

Any way to get cases up again for RTE

pauldry

Will vaccine numbers be damn all over the Easter?

Turtwig

OwenM wrote: »

Did Nolan actually state that again? It's a f**king ridiculous statement, basically saying it's not growing at all or it's growing rapidly - we haven't a clue really.......

In their most recent letter they state the same thing. There is a large uncertainty over the R number at present. It's minimum estimate though is 1 which is concerning.

The letter actually goes into the details as why the current estimate is so varied. Worth a read imo.

Corholio

I thought Nolan was unnecessarily negative today. I understand he has to be cautious but he was fixed on the 500-600 a day cases when we've had two days of 300 and 400 cases with higher testing and low swabbing positivity percentage amounts.

pauldry

pauldry wrote: »

Any way to get cases up again for RTE

Except cases have fallen since the mass vaccination centres opened.

What does that tell us - there really aren't legions of asymptomatic infections walking around, and symptomatic testing and contact tracing really is detecting most of the outbreaks

BlondeBomb

Will we get swabs now or just numbers?

External Association

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Will be interesting to see where today's cases tally with swabs. If the swab count is in the 400s from a large number of tests then it'll be excellent.

As of the past month they've tallied around 90% of the time.

'Stagnant March' was a bit of a disappointment but there seem to be real signs of a trend of progress emerging. Yesterday's positivity rate etc. We need about 3 more days to see the decline in cases has speeded up again.

MerlinSouthDub

OwenM wrote: »

Did Nolan actually state that again? It's a f**king ridiculous statement, basically saying it's not growing at all or it's growing rapidly - we haven't a clue really.......

I'm no defender of NPHET but the case numbers have been bouncing around a bit. It is genuinely difficult to know what the R rate is in those circumstances. All Philip Nolan is doing is plugging the data into the models and the models are showing a range of possibilities for R. It's not that Philip Nolan doesn't know what R is right now, it's that the data model is telling him that it could be within a range from stable to growing quite quickly. There is nothing Philip Nolan can do about the data being noisy.

Hopefully, we will see gradual fall in case numbers this week, and a more certain estimate of R!

Turtwig

Turtwig wrote: »

In their most recent letter they state the same thing. There is a large uncertainty over the R number at present. It's minimum estimate though is 1 which is concerning.

The letter actually goes into the details as why the current estimate is so varied. Worth a read imo.

Will shift a bit when they add in the last two days to the model

External Association

How we are progressing with vaccines mid April and cope with full return to school will tell a lot.

MerlinSouthDub

BlondeBomb wrote: »

Will we get swabs now or just numbers?

Don't know for sure, but we've gotten swabs every day bar Sundays and bank holidays so we should get them at some stage.

I never trust the daily case numbers, so I'm not going to read anything into today's case number until the swabs are published!

cjyid

Dr Ronan Glynn: “There is a critical window over the next 8 weeks where any significant increase in close contact is likely to lead to a significant fourth wave of infection in the range of that experienced in January 2021.”

TheDoctor

cjyid wrote: »

Dr Ronan Glynn: “There is a critical window over the next 8 weeks where any significant increase in close contact is likely to lead to a significant fourth wave of infection in the range of that experienced in January 2021.”

Of course it will Ronan, of course it will.....

Faugheen

Turtwig wrote: »

In their most recent letter they state the same thing. There is a large uncertainty over the R number at present. It's minimum estimate though is 1 which is concerning.

The letter actually goes into the details as why the current estimate is so varied. Worth a read imo.

They won’t read it.

Turtwig

Found that behaviour presentation very interesting.

Faugheen

Ah I see the armchair epidemiologists you said NPHET would be wrong about Christmas are out again.

Goldengirl

Excellent detailed presentation by D Phillip Nolan.

Faugheen

Corholio wrote: »

I thought Nolan was unnecessarily negative today. I understand he has to be cautious but he was fixed on the 500-600 a day cases when we've had two days of 300 and 400 cases with higher testing and low swabbing positivity percentage amounts.

He was explaining the modelling behind NPHET’s recommendations.

Included in that modelling was the impact of vaccines on the R number.

wadacrack

Zara King with her obligatory Wedding question. A clear sign that this pandemic is not yet over

ElTel

Deleted User wrote: »

Except cases have fallen since the mass vaccination centres opened.

What does that tell us - there really aren't legions of asymptomatic infections walking around, and symptomatic testing and contact tracing really is detecting most of the outbreaks

I think the close contact data from these positives is/was always the most important data to be gleaned from these pop up centres.

3% positivity from 7.5k tested with 3(say) close contacts gives 675 more to PCR test hopefully.

I'd guess positivity could be an order of magnitude lower for this group if most of the initial positives were truly asymptomatic. Am I way off/what would your guesstimate be?

BigMo1

wadacrack wrote: »

Zara King with her obligatory Wedding question. A clear sign that this pandemic is not yet over

Out of curiosity, what was the answer? I'm due to be married end of July and hoping for the best.

redmgar

I'm guessing that a lot of them on here complaining about the restrictions didn't do a lot of socialising pre covid anyways. They seem to live on the internet.

Faugheen

wadacrack wrote: »

Zara King with her obligatory Wedding question. A clear sign that this pandemic is not yet over

I don’t see why people make such a fuss about this. It’s obvious that she has followers asking her about it otherwise she wouldn’t ask.

Plenty of people impacted by the small numbers for weddings. Just because it doesn’t impact you doesn’t mean you should throw your nose up at those it does impact.

jhegarty

Positive Swabs : 712
Positivity Rate : 3.38%
Tests : 21051

ednwireland

Faugheen wrote: »

I don’t see why people make such a fuss about this. It’s obvious that she has followers asking her about it otherwise she wouldn’t ask.

Plenty of people impacted by the small numbers for weddings. Just because it doesn’t impact you doesn’t mean you should throw your nose up at those it does impact.

lets been honest it aint going to be 300 anytime soon (or even 100)

wadacrack

Faugheen wrote: »

I don’t see why people make such a fuss about this. It’s obvious that she has followers asking her about it otherwise she wouldn’t ask.

Plenty of people impacted by the small numbers for weddings. Just because it doesn’t impact you doesn’t mean you should throw your nose up at those it does impact.

Repeating the same question and getting the same answer every time is infuriating for everyone involved. Hairdressers and Retail aren't asking when can we open under every opportunity at this press briefing . Theirs way more examples.

MerlinSouthDub

jhegarty wrote: »

Positive Swabs : 712
Positivity Rate : 3.38%
Tests : 21051

Yep. Never trust the case numbers!

Still, not bad numbers

Faugheen

ednwireland wrote: »

lets been honest it aint going to be 300 anytime soon (or even 100)

What about 25? 30? 35?

I don’t understand why people seem to get really annoyed by the question being asked.