Relaxation of Restrictions, Part X *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

Ha Long Bay

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Vulnerable population (over 65 ) has about 2.2 million citizens

Do you believe only people over 65 are vulnerable? There is a reason the vaccine rollout is targeting group 4 and 7 here.

TheDoctor

Ha Long Bay wrote: »

Do you believe only people over 65 are vulnerable? There is a reason the vaccine rollout is targeting group 4 and 7 here.

92% of Covid deaths in Ireland are over 65. So would seem like the at risk age group.

Slide 28

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/epidemiologyofcovid-19inirelandweeklyreports/COVID-19%20Weekly%20Report_Slidset_HPSC_%20Week_15_WEB.pdf

FintanMcluskey

Ha Long Bay wrote: »

Do you believe only people over 65 are vulnerable? There is a reason the vaccine rollout is targeting group 4 and 7 here.

For deaths yes

Something like 95% of deaths occur in the over 65 age category

I was initially responding to a poster who was pleading with people to consider Portugal’s death rate now that they are moving on with life

I was making the point Ireland’s death rate is worse

gozunda

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Vulnerable population (over 65 ) has about 2.2 million citizens

Ok but the original poster seemed to be under the impression that Portugal and Ireland were fairly similar with regard to covid stats.

Do you mean that Portugal should need to be even more mindful of its vulnerable population? I think someone said they've only given about the same number of first dose vaccines as we have ...

ypres5

TomSweeney wrote: »

WTAF
(from the Telegraph)


Just a few days ago they were saying the UK is officially out of the pandemic..... yet it seems long term restrictions at least are getting worse ...



This has me absolutely GOBSMACKED



Imagine the type of authoritarian little thug that would apply for a "Covid Marshal" job.

Just look at the description for the job...



although at least they don't have enforcement powers... So we have the Australian govt admitting they won't open the border even when 100% of the population are vaccinated, and now this authoritarian little jackboot thugs that will be working in Britain until 2023.


What is going on ?

Why are restrictions going to be worse than summer 2020 ?

If I am a conspiracy theorist tell me why , the above is true , it's all here ..
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/04/27/june-21-wont-much-return-normal-thought/

There's a few on here who'd love to get their covid marshall uniform and the sense of self importance that'd go along with it.

Micky 32

ypres5 wrote: »

There's a few on here who'd love to get their covid marshall uniform and the sense of self importance that'd go along with it.

Lets hope they would be thick skinned. Because if they don’t have enforcement powers they’ll be hearing the words “ f***k off” quite a bit especially from vaccinated people. :pac:

gozunda

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

For deaths yes Something like 95% of deaths occur in the over 65 age category

I was initially responding to a poster who was pleading with people to consider Portugal’s death rate now that they are moving on with life

I was making the point Ireland’s death rate is worse

"Pleading"? The below comment is simply a statement of fact regarding case numbers and deaths

Ok If you wish to nit pick then so be it - but

A similar infection rate to us?

Portugal, with just over 10 million people, has reported a total of 16,970 deaths. The total number of coronavirus cases is 834,991,

We've had a total of 4,884 deaths and 247,489 coronavirus cases. Our population is 4.9 million.

How is Ireland’s "death rate" worse? I think you're being somewhat disingenuous there tbh.

MOR316

Micky 32 wrote: »

Lets hope they would be thick skinned. Because if they don’t have enforcement powers they’ll be hearing the words “ f***k off” quite a bit :pac:

The Gareth Keenans of the world

"I'm assistant Chief Medical Officer"
"Assistant to the Chief Medical Officer"

scamalert

ypres5 wrote: »

There's a few on here who'd love to get their covid marshall uniform and the sense of self importance that'd go along with it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-XnJwcBpVo


:pac:

JRant

Aph2016 wrote: »

I don't have the words for the level of frustration and anger I have towards the restrictions. I haven't seen a rational argument recently for keeping the restrictions at the current level.

Here's the reason https://t.co/PDeCvLYpwc?amp=1

Nolan and his motley crew of modelling mathematical marvels put this abomination together and actually presented it to government. And even more incredibly, the government didn't take one look at it and throw it straight into the bin.

They predict in the region of 250,000 to 700,000 by late July, despite having 80% of the adult population vaccinated. They also say that the if containment easing (that's the fancy word for lockdown) is delayed for 8 weeks the results are markedly different. Those 8 weeks just happens to get us to the end of May. So, don't expect too much on Thursday as a lot of the restrictions will be back loaded towards the end of the month.

Oh, and do laugh at the absolute shambles of a report and the way the graphs are presented. It's almost like this wasn't put together by the combined might of Irish universities mathematics prodigies.

gozunda

ypres5 wrote: »

There's a few on here who'd love to get their covid marshall uniform and the sense of self importance that'd go along with it.

Hmmm I reckon the boot would be firmly on the other foot given half a chance. "Uniform and self importance" etc

One poster here reckoned that those following restrictions were the "weak-minded" who need others to tell them what to think and what to do...

Tbh that sounds like a soundbite straight out of Mein Kampf...

The Big Easy

Penfailed wrote: »

Oh everyone's vaccinated now? Nobody told me!

The majority of people who are actually at risk of mortality from this virus, yes.

I worry that people's risk maps have been altered beyond any reasonableness. Life was, has, and always will be precarious.

I hope this paralysis of fear is not a permanent condition and people will recover quickly.

Penfailed

Zebra3 wrote: »

Genuinely.....

Why would you make a comment about everyone being vaccinated?

What has that got to do with removing restrictions?

Do you actually think the virus is a threat to 100% of the population?

Because we will never, ever, ever get 100% of the population vaccinated for a variety of reasons.

The vast majority of people that this virus could kill have now got at least one dose of a vaccine which offers huge protection. The vast majority of essential healthcare workers have been vaccinated so we are not going to have weak links in our healthcare personnel numbers smashed.

I posted it in response to someone saying that vaccinations are a mitigation measure. That's true. More people need to be vaccinated to be useful though.

ypres5

gozunda wrote: »

Hmmm I reckon the boot would be firmly on the other foot given half a chance. "Uniform and self importance" etc

One poster here reckoned that those following restrictions were the "weak-minded" who need others to tell them what to think and what to do...

Tbh that sounds like a soundbite straight out of Mein Kampf...

How would it work if the boot was on the other foot? Would there be einsatzgruppen prowling the streets dragging people into pubs? How do you enforce no rules?

MOR316

JRant wrote: »

Here's the reason https://t.co/PDeCvLYpwc?amp=1

Nolan and his motley crew of modelling mathematical marvels put this abomination together and actually presented it to government. And even more incredibly, the government didn't take one look at it and throw it straight into the bin.

They predict in the region of 250,000 to 700,000 by late July, despite having 80% of the adult population vaccinated. They also say that the if containment easing (that's the fancy word for lockdown) is delayed for 8 weeks the results are markedly different. Those 8 weeks just happens to get us to the end of May. So, don't expect too much on Thursday as a lot of the restrictions will be back loaded towards the end of the month.

Oh, and do laugh at the absolute shambles of a report and the way the graphs are presented. It's almost like this wasn't put together by the combined might of Irish universities mathematics prodigies.

Question...

He's not qualified to do that...Why is he doing it?

JRant

MOR316 wrote: »

Question...

He's not qualified to do that...Why is he doing it?

Who do you mean?

gozunda

ypres5 wrote: »

How would it work if the boot was on the other foot? Would there be einsatzgruppen prowling the streets dragging people into pubs? How do you enforce no rules?

I dunno - it wasn't myself who suggested about the 'weak minded"

Though I believe you were pushing the idea of importance and uniform in a previous comment.

That said the howls of the most vocal covid sceptics are already blaming everyone they don't agree with for being responsible for ruining their lives and that all restrictions will be permanent or wtte if they don't rise up & etc

MOR316

JRant wrote: »

Who do you mean?

Philip Nolan...

He has no prior experience, qualifications or training in pandemic or epidemiology modelling...
How is he in the position he's in? Why is he in the position he's in?

ypres5

gozunda wrote: »

I dunno - it wasn't myself who suggested about the 'weak minded"

Though I believe you were pushing the idea of importance and uniform in a previous comment.

That said the howls of the most vocal covid sceptics are already blaming everyone they don't agree with for being responsible for ruining their lives and that all restrictions will be permanent or wtte if they don't rise up & etc

I didn't call anyone weak minded either so why bring it up in a response to me? And what does that person's post have to do with my own? More baseless rambling

Coillte_Bhoy

Zebra3 wrote: »

Well try to keep up with the news then.

https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/pages/vaccinations

One million mark would’ve been easily passed by now.

Vaccines administered, 'vaccinations' which is what you posted, big difference

Coillte_Bhoy

growleaves wrote: »

We've had three lockdowns totalling 9 months over the previous 13 months.

Ah come on, Yes certain activities and businesses but not the 'entire country'.

NIMAN

Doesn't the North open non-essential retail this Friday?

The borders will be busy!

gozunda

ypres5 wrote: »

I didn't call anyone weak minded either so why bring it up in a response to me? And what does that person's post have to do with my own? More baseless rambling

Whats the expression? - "different animal same stable?. I'd say it's more bs attacking those who you don't agree with because apparently they'd "love to get their covid marshall uniform and the sense of self importance that'd go along with it"...

But as you say "more baseless rambling" ..

Dempo1

daydorunrun wrote: »

Traffic wardens about to loose their no.1 spot on the most hated list!!

I thought clampers had the No 1 spot, I'm terribly misinformed

Penfailed

NIMAN wrote: »

Doesn't the North open non-essential retail this Friday?

The borders will be busy!

Yep!

Sobit1964

gozunda wrote: »

Whats the expression? - "different animal same stable?. I'd say it's more bs attacking those who you don't agree with because apparently they'd "love to get their covid marshall uniform and the sense of self importance that'd go along with it"...

But as you say "more baseless rambling" ..

Why does the uniforms bit trigger you so much? Is it a case of the contrarian doth protest too much?

RayCon

JRant wrote: »

Here's the reason https://t.co/PDeCvLYpwc?amp=1

Nolan and his motley crew of modelling mathematical marvels put this abomination together and actually presented it to government. And even more incredibly, the government didn't take one look at it and throw it straight into the bin.

They predict in the region of 250,000 to 700,000 by late July, despite having 80% of the adult population vaccinated. They also say that the if containment easing (that's the fancy word for lockdown) is delayed for 8 weeks the results are markedly different. Those 8 weeks just happens to get us to the end of May. So, don't expect too much on Thursday as a lot of the restrictions will be back loaded towards the end of the month.

Oh, and do laugh at the absolute shambles of a report and the way the graphs are presented. It's almost like this wasn't put together by the combined might of Irish universities mathematics prodigies.

I've put together presentations like that in work when I purposefully want to paint a certain picture.

Elessar

Mr Martin told his colleagues that the approach will be one of caution as a potential spike in the autumn could have significant consequences.

What the fcuk did he mean by that?

Let me guess, the focus will move now to ‘protecting our children’ and we must lockdown at the slightest sign the virus is spreading, despite all adults being vaccinated.

JRant

MOR316 wrote: »

Philip Nolan...

He has no prior experience, qualifications or training in pandemic or epidemiology modelling...
How is he in the position he's in? Why is he in the position he's in?

Very true, however he is the head of the IEMA, which was get another new group set up in March of last year.

JRant

RayCon wrote: »

I've put together presentations like that in work when I purposefully want to paint a certain picture.

If a report like that came across my desk in work I'd bin it. It's basically a load of assumptions with nothing in it to back up any of the claims, almost like it was put together to fit a narrative.

FintanMcluskey

NIMAN wrote: »

Doesn't the North open non-essential retail this Friday?

The borders will be busy!

Yet MM want’s to encourage people to spend savings in the ROI

How??

Doctor Jimbob

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Yet MM want’s to encourage people to spend savings in the ROI

How??

Yeah, it's hard to spend when so much is closed. I've had my eye on some garden chairs in argos. Apparently click and collect is still too dangerous though so I can't buy the fecking things.

We'll have mass before click and collect at this stage. Micheál Martin in a nutshell.

PintOfView

JRant wrote: »

If a report like that came across my desk in work I'd bin it. It's basically a load of assumptions with nothing in it to back up any of the claims, almost like it was put together to fit a narrative.

You'd bin it?

I was expecting it to be rubbish from what was being said about it.
It's simply the historical numbers, plus projections based on clear assumptions
However it does take more than 30 seconds to read and absorb the information!!

If you had a position of responsibility, and you binned that report,
and you didn't take the information in it into account in your decision making
then sorry, but I would recommend that you be removed from your job!!

Lefty2Guns

Elessar wrote: »

What the fcuk did he mean by that?

Let me guess, the focus will move now to ‘protecting our children’ and we must lockdown at the slightest sign the virus is spreading, despite all adults being vaccinated.

I think people need to brace themselves for another winter lockdown. The soundbites from Government about it are constant.

the kelt

NIMAN wrote: »

Doesn't the North open non-essential retail this Friday?

The borders will be busy!

I hope all those people in their southern reg cars and accents will all be ok and not set upon by the senseless rioting going on all over the north according to this thread a few weeks ago

ypres5

gozunda wrote: »

Whats the expression? - "different animal same stable?. I'd say it's more bs attacking those who you don't agree with because apparently they'd "love to get their covid marshall uniform and the sense of self importance that'd go along with it"...

But as you say "more baseless rambling" ..

If you don't mind me saying that post of mine about covid marshalls enjoying their petty authority seems to have really stuck in your craw for some reason

Elessar

Lefty2Guns wrote: »

I think people need to brace themselves for another winter lockdown. The soundbites from Government about it are constant.

Absolutely. Now that they are commonplace the terrifying reality is that they are like dislocating a shoulder - hard to do it the first time but can happen very easily again after that. I sure hope to god I'm wrong but absolutely no one in government has the guts to say "No, this is too much".

finalfurlong

Elessar wrote: »

What the fcuk did he mean by that?

Let me guess, the focus will move now to ‘protecting our children’ and we must lockdown at the slightest sign the virus is spreading, despite all adults being vaccinated.

Yes it really is beyond a joke.The serious side is that there is no even perfunctory questioning of this moving of goalposts and raft of contradictions by Gov and Nphet.Today and tomorrow will be spun away with no questioning like
Given that we were told non stop about saving health system do todays figures of 148(out of 12000 beds) and 46 in Icu in a country of 5000000 people have relevance?
Do todays average figure of last 2 weeks of 400 cases with an accompanying DECREASE in hospitalisations and ICU tell us something?
Could the billions spent on supports currently be reduced by opening safely businesses which generate revenue by VAT PAYE etc?
Could todays meeting see Nphet asked why they consider current situation fragile,given that 1.5 million people have got vaccine,all metrics have come down since end of March when it was also "fragile"

Finally could there be a modicum of leadership and drive By Gov to stop simpering about people not "behaving"-it is an insult that the efforts of people to bring the numbers down to the above is being thrown back in their faces by the insult to intelligence patronising guff we are going to be fed yet again today and tomorrow

JRant

PintOfView wrote: »

You'd bin it?

I was expecting it to be rubbish from what was being said about it.
It's simply the historical numbers, plus projections based on clear assumptions
However it does take more than 30 seconds to read and absorb the information!!

If you had a position of responsibility, and you binned that report,
and you didn't take the information in it into account in your decision making
then sorry, but I would recommend that you be removed from your job!!

Look at the graphs alone. That's enough to send it straight back to whatever 1st year student put it together.

Also, assuming an R number of 2 in July is not just a "worst case scenario" it's outright scaremongering. Israel has a R way below 1 with most of the country back open and 130 doses per 100 people, somewhere we will be in June/July so what is the basis of using such high R numbers.

It seems to take absolutely no account of vaccinations and as such is complete garbage.

As someone who reviews reports on an almost daily basis, I can tell you if I sent that report up to leadership I'd have serious questions to answer and rightly so.

gozunda

RayCon wrote: »

I've put together presentations like that in work when I purposefully want to paint a certain picture.

If you'd check you might see it's not a 'presentation"

Odd the dismissal and outrage of what is in effect a briefing document looking at estimates modelling and not "predictions" as detailed by some.

It does mention the potential for new wave of infection from increased social contact following a roll back of restrictions etc. But then shows how vaccination progressively suppresses infections and cases and the significant effect vaccination has on hospitalisation.

Its not really surprising that restrictions will help keep the lid on the rate of infection as vaccinations are rolled out.

I would love to see some of the alternate modelling and graphs some of the experts here would come up with tbf :pac:

Marty Bird

Lefty2Guns wrote: »

I think people need to brace themselves for another winter lockdown. The soundbites from Government about it are constant.

Yep 100% agree I did think they would fly the kites maybe early August but they’re flying them a lot earlier.

gozunda

ypres5 wrote: »

If you don't mind me saying that post of mine about covid marshalls enjoying their petty authority seems to have really stuck in your craw for some reason

Ah let me see - you're saying anyone replying to your comment about "uniforms" and "petty authoritiy" means that there the ones with an issue on that ?

Rflol

Thanks for the laugh this morning

TomSweeney

gozunda wrote: »

Hmmm I reckon the boot would be firmly on the other foot given half a chance. "Uniform and self importance" etc

One poster here reckoned that those following restrictions were the "weak-minded" who need others to tell them what to think and what to do...

Tbh that sounds like a soundbite straight out of Mein Kampf...

Yeah welcome to the ignore list ...




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facehugger99

Elessar wrote: »

Absolutely. Now that they are commonplace the terrifying reality is that they are like dislocating a shoulder - hard to do it the first time but can happen very easily again after that. I sure hope to god I'm wrong but absolutely no one in government has the guts to say "No, this is too much".

If the Government are advised by NPHET that shutting down the country next winter will save people dying from respiratory illnesses, then they will shut down the country.

This is the current metric that is being applied.

It doesn't matter that the effects of these lockdowns are doing way more damage then good - the only prism through which anything is to be assessed and judged is by covid cases apparently.

The only way this strategy changes is either the people of this country wake up and realise what is being done to their lives and their futures by this nonsense - and this doesn't look close to happening yet or;

The Government are cut off from the line of cheap credit that they are currently burning their way through with abandon. The amount of debt they have added to us and our kids is actually criminal in my view. They are ducking any decisions or accountability by throwing tens of billions of our money around.

TomSweeney

Elessar wrote: »

What the fcuk did he mean by that?

Let me guess, the focus will move now to ‘protecting our children’ and we must lockdown at the slightest sign the virus is spreading, despite all adults being vaccinated.

Wouldn't surprise me, even though flu is literally more dangerous to kids than covid is.

Boggles

JRant wrote: »

.

It seems to take absolutely no account of vaccinations and as such is complete garbage.

As someone who reviews reports on an almost daily basis, I can tell you if I sent that report up to leadership I'd have serious questions to answer and rightly so.

You didn't even read it so.

Vaccination will
•
significantly and quickly reduce risk over a short period of time from May 2021 to August 2021
•
radically reduce mortality when those over 70 are fully protected
•
have a smaller effect on hospitalisation and critical care until the wider adult population is protected

It's why you send things up to "leadership" and the likes of Nolan is "leadership".

Sharpyshoot

It’s NIAC now that has the trump card over the government and nphet.

JRant

Boggles wrote: »

You didn't even read it so.



It's why you send things up to "leadership" and the likes of Nolan is "leadership".

He's an a career academic and wouldn't know what leadership was if it bit him on the arse.

It's clear you and others haven't read the report. They use a R number of 2 even with vaccinations. It's right there in the report under the 3 scenarios they highlight. They then go on to say that suppression is required for a further 8 weeks, up to end of May or we would have over 700,000 cases. It's ludicrous stuff.

PintOfView

JRant wrote: »

Look at the graphs alone. That's enough to send it straight back to whatever 1st year student put it together.

Also, assuming an R number of 2 in July is not just a "worst case scenario" it's outright scaremongering. Israel has a R way below 1 with most of the country back open and 130 doses per 100 people, somewhere we will be in June/July so what is the basis of using such high R numbers.

It seems to take absolutely no account of vaccinations and as such is complete garbage.

As someone who reviews reports on an almost daily basis, I can tell you if I sent that report up to leadership I'd have serious questions to answer and rightly so.

I see nothing wrong with the graphs, they clearly communicate the information!

The report is not assuming an R rate of 2 in July,
it's showing what the models suggest would happen with different R rates (1.3, 1.5, and 2.0)
It's also showing predictions with vaccination, and without vaccination.

You say that Israel has an R way below 1, with a vaccinations where we will be in July.
But isn't that what the graphs are showing?
They're showing a possible 4th wave, peaking end of June, with the virus then falling dramatically by October.

Boggles

JRant wrote: »

He's an a career academic and wouldn't know what leadership was if it bit him on the arse.

It's clear you and others haven't read the report. They use a R number of 2 even with vaccinations. It's right there in the report under the 3 scenarios they highlight. They then go on to say that suppression is required for a further 8 weeks, up to end of May or we would have over 700,000 cases. It's ludicrous stuff.

It's not a report it's a briefing document, there is a difference. You of all people should know that if you review reports every day.

I suggest though you go back again and review this briefing document because as I just showed, you haven't clearly.

If there is parts you don't understand, ask.