Much colder, wintry showers, some of snow Easter Sunday 2021 onward

Cluedo Monopoly

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

You are young, naïve and starry eyed. With time, you'll learn to become as bitterly sceptical and resentful of anything that shows anything remotely interesting regarding the Irish weather as the rest of us because 99.9% of the time, disappointment and dejection will prevail!

Ah ffs, will ye stop trying to wind up the lad. Live and let live.

Gonzo

The windchill is really getting going now. No heat left in that sun. Sitting outside now requires a jacket to stay warm.

ZX7R

Gonzo wrote: »

The windchill is really getting going now. No heat left in that sun. Sitting outside now requires a jacket to stay warm.

Vodka.....

Nqp15hhu

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

Ah ffs, will ye stop trying to wind up the lad. Live and let live.

Best of all is that he’s naw an old man is he? Just bitter he’s getting no snow.

sryanbruen

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

You are young, naïve and starry eyed. With time, you'll learn to become as bitterly sceptical and resentful of anything that shows anything remotely interesting regarding the Irish weather as the rest of us because 99.9% of the time, disappointment and dejection will prevail!

Still remember all the times I was such 'starry eyed' and fell into the trap that is our climate with all these fantasy model runs. Always found the constant pessimism very irritating but years of experience shows me otherwise now...

Anyway.. current scenes in Argir, Faroe Isles.



Webcam screenshot from Windy.com.

Oneiric 3

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Best of all is that he’s naw an old man is he? Just bitter he’s getting no snow.

I've been rumbled...

smokie72

Go easy on Nqp15huu...for such a small island we can have very diverse weather from one end to the other. Anybody living near the north coast is obviously more prone to wintry weather. Any information from our northern brethen is good to know. We could do with more weather enthusiasts from Ulster. From reading other Nqp15uu posts on other forums he is a passionate young man. Might not always agree but he has interest in meterology.

Enjoy the cool dry weather while it lasts

Nqp15hhu

No sign of the first cold front that was supposed to arrive at 6pm. Met Office predict heavy rain now, yet it is dry with nothing of note further north.

Gaoth Laidir

UKMO airfield warnings for Ulster.

Derry Eglinton:
Snow
Issued at: Sun 04 Apr 2021 - 17:33 UTC
Valid from: Mon 05 Apr 2021 - 00:00 UTC
Valid to: Mon 05 Apr 2021 - 06:00 UTC
SNOW (OR RAIN AND SNOW MIXED) SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT THE AIRFIELD.SLIGHT/MODERATE SNOWFALL IS FORECAST, WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 0-1CM. SNOW TYPE WET. VISIBILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 600M IN THE SNOWFALL, WITH A MINIMUM VISIBILITY OF 1500M.

Belfast Aldergrove
Snow
Issued at: Sun 04 Apr 2021 - 15:31 UTC
Valid from: Mon 05 Apr 2021 - 02:00 UTC
Valid to: Mon 05 Apr 2021 - 06:00 UTC
SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT THE AIRFIELD.SLIGHT/MODERATE SNOWFALL IS FORECAST, WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 0-1CM. SNOW TYPE WET. VISIBILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 600M IN THE SNOWFALL, WITH A MINIMUM VISIBILITY OF 2000M.

Belfast City
Snow
Issued at: Sun 04 Apr 2021 - 17:34 UTC
Valid from: Mon 05 Apr 2021 - 02:00 UTC
Valid to: Mon 05 Apr 2021 - 06:00 UTC
SLIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT THE AIRFIELD BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

pauldry

sryanbruen wrote: »

Still remember all the times I was such 'starry eyed' and fell into the trap that is our climate with all these fantasy model runs. Always found the constant pessimism very irritating but years of experience shows me otherwise now...

Anyway.. current scenes in Argir, Faroe Isles.



Webcam screenshot from Windy.com.

This might actually bring snow to some Northern areas sryan. That's a big drop in Faroes isnt it?

Gaoth Laidir

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

No sign of the first cold front that was supposed to arrive at 6pm. Met Office predict heavy rain now, yet it is dry with nothing of note further north.

At 18Z (now) it lies about 50 miles north of Malin Head, moving southwards at 25 knots.

nacho libre

We might be prone to disappointments weather-wise given our location, but when the pieces do fall in place we probably enjoy it all the more so than if we were guaranteed exciting weather every time. I remember an intense night time thunderstorm from Biscay way back in May 2001, i was in awe of it. I doubt if i was guaranteed Biscay storms every year i would appreciate them quite as much as i did that storm. The same is probably true if we were guaranteed wintry episodes like December 2010 every winter.

nacho libre

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Best of all is that he’s naw an old man is he? Just bitter he’s getting no snow.

Nah it's from living in Choom. I'd be bitter too, if I lived there:D

Some light rain at the moment.

Nqp15hhu

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

At 18Z (now) it lies about 50 miles north of Malin Head, moving southwards at 25 knots.

Where are you seeing this? In the past I used an aviation site had live front positioning but I cannot find it.

Gaoth Laidir

Nice falloff in sounding 850-hPa temperatures in Iceland and this afternoon Torshavn (Faroe Islands) and Lerwick.

Gaoth Laidir

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Where are you seeing this? In the past I used an aviation site had live front positioning but I cannot find it.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/premium/generalaviation/#/briefingCharts

You need to register.

External Association

sryanbruen wrote: »

Still remember all the times I was such 'starry eyed' and fell into the trap that is our climate with all these fantasy model runs. Always found the constant pessimism very irritating but years of experience shows me otherwise now...

Anyway.. current scenes in Argir, Faroe Isles.



Webcam screenshot from Windy.com.

You're still very young Sryan Still 20/21?

External Association

I think Nqp might be getting a bit of less than positive feedback because being from Limavady many think he's outside the meteorological jurisdiction aswell as political. There sometimes seems to be a bit of 'what are you doing here' in replies.

I find if you're Dublin and it's hinterland you're pretty much in the main group on the site, naturally due to population. Cork, Galway and the West next. Then the Midlands, Mountain man in Sligo etc. I don't remember a Derry poster before.

We all naturally look to our own spot!! I'd find what's happening in an estate in Lucan, Clondalkin or Naas with say heavy sleet etc very boring compared to a high ground report from RobertKK! Though when Kittyn posts from around Dundrum I enjoy them as she's so mannerly. Nacho has a very broadened way of posting, sees the big picture. That's admirable.

Nqp15hhu

This “front” is boring. Where are the large temperature gradients that were forecast? I have seen far greater drops in Atlantic based systems.

It seems the cold air is stubbornly locked in Northern Scotland for now.

Gaoth Laidir

The impressive fall in 850-hPa temperatures continues this evening, with Torshavn falling 6 degrees in 6 hours. However, despite the very steep lapse rate in the bottom 4 km, it's still not producing CAPE there. The core of the coldest upper pool (above 600 hPa) is to its east, closer to Norway, where colder cloudtops are now showing up. In fact, it will completely miss the UK now too.

M.T. Cranium

I noticed that the K5 buoy west of the Hebrides stopped reporting after the front passed at 15z, dropping temperatures there from around 6 to 2 C. Toppled, or communication problems? By the way, for potential marine modification, sea temp there was 9 C. So probably at least that between Rockall and Ulster.

The front will hit soon, right now the north is between that decaying occlusion and the cold front and winds are turning gradually to the northwest, but when the front arrives temperatures will drop quite fast. Let's speculate midnight for Northern Ireland and Donegal, 0200h for places like Ballyhaise and Finner, 0300h for Claremorris, Mullingar and Dublin and 0400h Shannon, 0500h for Cork to Waterford.

Should be interesting for anyone staying up or getting up early, this is where my time zone differential comes in handy (lunch time here).

igCorcaigh

Anyway, down in this part of the island, I don't think there will be much cold to speak of, just a very pleasant 8 to 10C and dry, partially sunny weather.
I'll happily take it.

M.T. Cranium

After my time here I feel more Irish than anything else, mind you I did have an Irish mother so there is that. We should probably leave the political and cultural stuff to other boards forums, but from my perspective anyone from Northern Ireland should get involved here and if one thing definitely is integrated across a border, it's the weather.

Speaking of which, did anyone else get the feeling there was a bit of an upgrade on the 12z models, in terms of snowfall potential for Ulster? I would not be surprised if there was a fairly well organized streamer running through central NI into north Leinster by 0300-0600h. With uppers -10 to -12, that should be mostly snow with convective potential, snow pellets could be frequently encountered.

Nqp15hhu

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I noticed that the K5 buoy west of the Hebrides stopped reporting after the front passed at 15z, dropping temperatures there from around 6 to 2 C. Toppled, or communication problems? By the way, for potential marine modification, sea temp there was 9 C. So probably at least that between Rockall and Ulster.

The front will hit soon, right now the north is between that decaying occlusion and the cold front and winds are turning gradually to the northwest, but when the front arrives temperatures will drop quite fast. Let's speculate midnight for Northern Ireland and Donegal, 0200h for places like Ballyhaise and Finner, 0300h for Claremorris, Mullingar and Dublin and 0400h Shannon, 0500h for Cork to Waterford.

Should be interesting for anyone staying up or getting up early, this is where my time zone differential comes in handy (lunch time here).

Winds have backed to NW here, it is 7.1c now. I think the front is just south of Tiree going on the latest ICON run.

I don’t have much faith on a large drop going on the 5c temp there.

M.T. Cranium

That 8 to 10 for Cork sounds optimistic to me, 4 to 7 perhaps. Also the front running into some resistance is not necessarily going to result in fine weather, it could extend its ability to generate wintry showers as it will be slower than just a sudden windshift and dew point drop. Looking at all obs at stations in Faeroes and n Scotland encountered by the front, there's a 2 hour time span where temperatures check before falling further. This indicates convective potential.

Thorshavn was about 7 deg late overnight then fell to -5 C. Stornoway was near 10 C at noon today and fell to zero C. I think this is going to surprise some people in central and southern counties when it does push through. For Cork that could be right around the sunrise to morning commute hours I assume though Easter Monday is something of a holiday there, it seems to be our "almost" holiday in Canada because the only place it is observed is at the banks, they usually stay closed, but it isn't regarded as a "statutory holiday." The morning and afternoon rush hour traffic in our cities is probably back to 75% of what it was pre-COVID, would you say that's about the same for Irish cities? I live in quite an isolated mountain town that's a ski resort in winter and mountain bike touring centre in summer, so the impacts here have been minimal, people are still doing those things and the market for it seems mostly regional, this is not some high end international destination like Whistler-Blackcomb, but a favourite ski destination of western Canadian residents. We don't have quite the same restrictions on travel here although socially it works out almost the same as many people are voluntarily reducing their regional travel.

Nqp15hhu

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

After my time here I feel more Irish than anything else, mind you I did have an Irish mother so there is that. We should probably leave the political and cultural stuff to other boards forums, but from my perspective anyone from Northern Ireland should get involved here and if one thing definitely is integrated across a border, it's the weather.

Speaking of which, did anyone else get the feeling there was a bit of an upgrade on the 12z models, in terms of snowfall potential for Ulster? I would not be surprised if there was a fairly well organized streamer running through central NI into north Leinster by 0300-0600h. With uppers -10 to -12, that should be mostly snow with convective potential, snow pellets could be frequently encountered.

I noted that there was an incursion of precipitation coming through about midnight onwards... then an uptake tomorrow afternoon.

There is a disparity in uppers... icon says about -8c with the -10c uppers taking a while to come in.

GEM says around -13c

Gaoth Laidir

Here is the latest ballooning forecast for the northern UK, including tomorrow evening's output for Draperstown.

Area Forecast: NORTH
Forecast period: 05 APRIL 2021 0500-1000 UTC
Regional Summary
Generally moderate to strong, northerly to northwesterly winds, strongest along the north and east of Scotland where gales may occur along coasts, and severe gales toward Shetland. Largely unsettled conditions dominating with frequent wintry showers bringing stratus bases occasionally down to 400-1000FT in snow. Heaviest showers in the north of Scotland, where cumulonimbus is likely to develop at bases 2000-3000FT bringing a mix of snow and hail. A more organised band of heavy and possibly thundery snow showers will run southeastward across Shetland. Poor visibility in showers, but generally very good in dry spells.
Sea Breeze: Nil

Inversions Min/Max (ft)Nil significant

Lee waves generated over Ne Ireland
Height at strongest wave activity (ft): N/A
Wave amplitude (Nil/Moderate/Severe): Nil
Risk of Rotors: No

Outlook for period:
3 HOUR PERIOD TO DUSK, 05 APRIL 2021:
Moderate to strong, northerly to northwesterly winds across the region. The strongest winds will remain along north and east Scotland with gales possible here. Generally a continuation of the conditions from the morning period, with wintry showers continuing through the afternoon and evening.

Snowbie

My latest forecast below covering Ireland, UK, N Europe and much of the Northern Latitudes.

https://youtu.be/nq-HH8JsvdY

GoneHome

Here in rural south Co Limerick, very chilly outside now (having just gone outside to deposit some empty beer cans in the recycling bin!)

Nqp15hhu

Down to 5.5c now.