Russian build up along Ukraine

SouthWesterly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118754626#Comment_118754626

That will never be said

ancientmariner

The Polish transfer of MIGs is deemed untenable due to their hunt and seek ability. defensive arms anti-Tk and anti-Air are ok in that if you do not invade their loc then you are not in danger. The only strategy left for the Ru is to take Kyiy install in their terms a friendly Government, hope the other 43m will go along. Then get an agreement of non-alignment and then leave. The country is too big for dealing with a continual insurgency.

Larbre34

So it seems the US has nixed the Polish MiG-29 proposal, even though the detail last night was reporting the specifics of the US F-16 supply that would replace them, the US being concerned at escalation.

At the same time, the UK DoD is suggesting sending units of its Mach 4 Starstreak MANPAD.

I kinda feel that NATO needs to be conducting this sort of Dutch auction stuff much more on the downlow. Why do they want to mark the Russians' card? After all, Russia has effective control of very little of Ukraine overall, so it seems NATO can convoy in as much gear as it likes into Western Ukraine for onward deployment.

Russia seem to be in so much disarray on the ground, now is the time to take advantage of that and start breaking some of the sieges where Russian commitments are thin and stressed.

If it were me, I'd paint up the Polish MiGs and send them anyway, for use with extreme discretion. I daresay the Russians haven't the time or resources to identify where a particular plane originated anyway, nor to do much about it.

ancientmariner

Having failed so far with their objective of seizing key cities, the RU may resort to a dirtier war in the chemical range. In the meantime with Mariupol being a seaport, take out the women and children by sea using a liner type vessel that has it's own ferry craft. They could be landed at ODESSA and moved on from there. The sea would be the safest corridor and a liner trip would be a holiday with 5 or more restaurants. The RU should be asked to allow the move as a humanitarian corridor.

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118762276#Comment_118762276

That’s not possible, the Russians have sealed off the Sea of Azov under the bridge they built to connect Crimea and have already hit at least three foreign ships and forced one ship into a minefield at Odessa to try and clear it (and that was before they let themselves be lured into losing a corvette). They aren’t letting civilians out, it’s not Russian tactics.

As for CWs, technically they are meant to have destroyed their stocks and won’t be able to use Syria as an excuse this time, but given the US is now reporting circa 5-6k dead and potentially 3 times that wounded for Russian forces, the coming season of mud and importantly the demobilisation of the conscripts by the end of the month it’s possible.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118757828#Comment_118757828

If it were me, I'd paint up the Polish MiGs and send them anyway, for use with extreme discretion. I daresay the Russians haven't the time or resources to identify where a particular plane originated anyway, nor to do much about it.

This thing with the Migs is reminding me of a scene from one of my favourite films, 13 days about the Cuban Missile Crisis. Kennedy's aide Kenny O'Donnell is instructing one of the pilots doing surveillance over Cuba

Kenny O'Donnell:

The president has instructed me to pass along an order to you. You are not to get shot down.

Commander William B. Ecker:

Uh, we'll do our best, sir.

O'Donnell:

I don't think you understand me, Commander. You are not to get shot down under any circumstances. Whatever happens up there, you were not shot at. Mechanical failures are fine, crashing into mountains fine. But you and your men are not to be shot at, fired at, or launched upon.

ancientmariner

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118762476#Comment_118762476

Putin's bridge to Crimea is high enough for standard ships to pass through. if it is blocked it can be unblocked. The Ukrainians managed to get a naval vessel out to the approaches of Odessa and put a round in a RU vessel which withdrew. The Ukrainians still hold Odessa. This is developing into a war of attrition which has already caused the Ru to commit most of their in theatre assets, believed to be 95% of available formations, meaning he has no reserve and those not yet committed are likely to be in the wrong place to be effective. He may have to do something spectacular and illegal.

punchdrunk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118746253#Comment_118746253

It also would appear that the Ukrainians are holding a large amount of their own armour back in the west, possibly waiting for more favourable ground conditions to launch a counter offensive in the coming weeks

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118766062#Comment_118766062

I never said it couldn't be sailed under, I said it is blocked by the Russians. Since they aren't willing to allow civilians out, what exactly do you suggest, use of force? He's already done illegal things, he's been doing it for years and getting away with it, and since NATO isn't going to attack Russia he knows he has a window if he wants.

ancientmariner

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118766130#Comment_118766130

No. Just a negotiated corridor to allow those leaving MARIUPOL a safe passage. The Liner could be from a third country on charter. As time goes on a particular action by him may close the window. Higher levels need to talk to Putin and give him some reassurance without giving him Ukraine.

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118766962#Comment_118766962

Shelled or mined. At this stage I wouldn't trust Russia with any civilian corridor anywhere, add in the gross incompetence of the Russian Navy as you say it has the potential to go extremely wrong with a lot of innocent people dying, not that they aren't already sadly.

Hotblack Desiato

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118762476#Comment_118762476

Surely with their country on a war* "special operational" footing, the conscripts can forget about going home for the foreseeable?

* it IS a war as far as I'm concerned

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118767453#Comment_118767453

There’s no question that it’s a war, but legally (for Russia) Conscripts aren’t meant to be deployed for foreign operations and can’t be used for 6 months after conscription. Putin already said they weren’t in Ukraine and then there MOD had to admit they were. If they don’t demobilise at the end of the month there will be hell to pay even for Putin.

Remember if the US figures are right they’ve taken nearly as many dead in two weeks as the US took in 20 years of Iraq and Afghanistan combined, and nearly 2/3 of what the ussr took in 10 years in Afghanistan.

ancientmariner

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118766962#Comment_118766962

The GUSTLOFF incident was a horrific loss of civilians and some military during a WW . If a final corridor is guaranteed by all sides then I'm suggesting for a port city that a ship would be useful because of it's lift capability. I know that the Russians are dirty players in all matters including Sport, War, and have little credibility with reality except that the end justifies the means but right now there is no one else to negotiate with, hopefully like Pavlov's dog they will catch on .

Hotblack Desiato

Rumours that mobile crematoria are being used by the Russians to avoid body bags coming home. Who knows if that's true or not. But one way or the other, Ivan and Ivanka Public are going to find that their son isn't coming home and they are not going to like it. Who cares about Big Macs and iPhones?

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118767900#Comment_118767900

They aren't respecting the corridors that they themselves are suggesting on land, what makes you think that they would respect one at sea? Like I said the Russian Navy has been living up to it's usual worst examples so I wouldn't be surprised if they claimed that the Ukrainian's would be to blame for anything that might happen.

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118767938#Comment_118767938

There have been rumours about that alright, not sure if any of them have been captured (which is saying something given the scale of equipment that is being taken by Ukrainians), but yeah sooner or later families are going to find out about their sons.

Larbre34

I saw one Ukrainian local official on newsnight about a week ago saying they are having to burn or bury the Russian dead to avoid the risk of disease, because the Russians are scarpering so fast from flash points that they aren't paying any attention to their own fallen, even lads that might just be wounded. Doesn't say much for their military might.

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118768089#Comment_118768089

Did you see how quickly that tank column retreated yesterday? Clearly everyone has been on the take in the Russian supply chain/military since the fall of the USSR, add in the appalling treatment of their conscripts and it’s not a huge surprise.

roadmaster

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118768213#Comment_118768213

It was unreal seam to be every tank and apc for themselves when the first misile hit them

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118704674#Comment_118704674

Not yet but after this is said and done we May see an accelerated push to form an integrated EU army

ancientmariner

As regards an EU Army, that might clash with current NATO commitments and allocation of Forces. HQ's have come together and assets were put in place for things like OP PONTUS, initial migrant rescue schemes , and OP SOPHIA an anti migrant enablers operation in and off the North African region. There was also the more active scheme off the Horn Of Africa. We took part in the former two and had officers in the Italian based HQ., as well as Irish Naval ships at sea who rescued around 17,000 people . The Taoiseach mentioned today he would consider troops in Poland as part of an Eu mission.

Larbre34

Yeah, for humanitarian support ops only it must be said.

I'd be surprised if they'd be needed to be honest, there are civil defence and humanitarian organisations all over the continent that can get there quicker and with much more kit overland. That's not to mention the militaries of Central Europe. We should, of course, support them in any way they ask though, including medical airlift and specialist evacuation where needed.

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118768518#Comment_118768518

At the EU summit in Versailles today, they couldn't get positive consensus on either energy divestment or fast-tracking Ukrainian EU membership.

There may be increased commitment to EU crisis response structures out of this, but the notion of a unified EU military command is fanciful. Especially as NATO has been catapulted back to primacy in the bulwark of Western Hemisphere defence. And it looks like either or both Sweden and Finland will soon join that Organisation, which will cement its place as the standalone single-purpose entity for the defence of Old Europe and democratic Europe.

ancientmariner

At this juncture most western countries are overburdened by consequences and are differing between what needs to be done and what they can usefully do without drawing retaliation from RU. With growing indiscriminate actions perhaps some redline prohibitions should be announced by those giving current support to Ukraine. For instance if the RU attack a convoy coming in from Poland that the west responds by eliminating the source of fire. With continuing attrition and change of Ru tactics some attempt must be made to shift initiative and lay out consequences for Putin. The overall silence of the USA is worrying together with nobody in charge of overall response which need to be made on a daily basis.

jonnybigwallet

https://youtu.be/TX22pGbdgtQ

Chacking effort work by Jonny Brazilian and God bless Embraer!

Psychlops

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118790294#Comment_118790294

"Jonny Brazilian" 🙄 would you just stop posting here please.

cute geoge

If peace talks breakdown ,if I were Zelensky I would take out that new russian bridge to crimea with a bomb or would that drive Putin completely over the edge

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118797579#Comment_118797579

How exactly would he even be in position to attack it?

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118797963#Comment_118797963

You be surprised. I am sure that NATO could lend him a few drones well capable of reaching the bridge and bombing it.

Even at present Russia is still not in control of the sky over Ukraine's. A standard jet bomber may be able to reach it even at present.

A special forces team of with Ukrainian or military contractors may be able to access it over land. Maybe Henry Garvie and the boys now they are retired a few years.

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118798069#Comment_118798069

NATO is being very careful about what military equipment they are sending, they aren’t going to give Drones of such capability, and given that such drones aren’t in Ukrainian service, they would need NATO service people as well.

While the Ukrainian Air Force is still combat capable, they are at what half strength, such a mission to an area that Russia has held for 8 years would need a significant use of those that are left and likely heavy losses they can’t replace.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118798297#Comment_118798297

Then it's back to Henry and his gang

Larbre34

Call me naive, but I think the Russians might keep an eye on that bridge.

I watched former SACEUR Wesley Clark on the box last night and he gets the sense the Ukrainians are gearing up for counter-offensive operation in certain locations where the Russian cover is thin, not resupplied and exhausted.

The Ukrainians have had magnificent success in getting into temporary Russian bases and destroying armour and helis on the ground, almost 40 this week! I have so much admiration for what they are doing.

Apart from that, the key tactical issue is to prevent Russian self-propelled guns and MLRS from getting good positions at Kyiv and Odessa and the likes. Big days ahead.

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118799027#Comment_118799027

Given it’s the supply route for Crimea and their Southern Front, you can bet they are keeping a close eye on it (as much as the Russians can, as this war has demonstrated they are a fecking joke).

There have been a few reports of localised counterattacks, but I haven’t seen anything suggesting that a major assault might be imminent, the Ukrainians are faced with the same problem as the Russians in being limited to the road network due to the mud. However given the US is now conservatively putting Russian losses above 7k, and the possibility of up to three times that wounded, how much effective combat power is left in the Russian advance is an open question. They are still in another “operational pause” as they try to unfuck their logistics while facing issues of having such crappy commas that their most recent general was killed after “Ukrainians” traced his phone call and took out his command (that’s 4 generals he’s lost now), add in mixed views on whether China is willing to fully back Russia, and they could be in for more issues within the next week.

sparky42

The Russians just lost one of their LSTs in one of the occupied Ukrainian ports, Ukraine is claiming they hit it with SRBMs, but given Russian performance this could just as easily been a self inflicted wound. Either way another hit to the Russians, meanwhile most suggestions now are that their units in the North have lost all ability to advance and have gone on the defensive with reports of new advances from Ukrainian forces around Kyiv.

Larbre34

Now is the most worrying time for me.

Putin has gone into paranoia overdrive. His command and control on the ground is gone to ****. His commanders in the field are being picked off. His conscripts are being massacred / captured /deserting. Logistics do not exist. His armour and rotary wings are being picked off by superior enemy smart weapons. Fixed wing are afraid to fly where Star Streak, Sky Sabre and likely their own built S-300 are deployed. He is benching senior members of the military and intelligence services. Senior brass are privately expressing their anxiety and frustration at the entire undertaking to journalists and foreign diplomats. His Defence Minister Shiogu, the second most popular politician in Russia has disappeared from view, likely taking the blame for the farce.

The question is, what does Putin do with all that levelled against him? The potential response is the worry.

Hotblack Desiato

Hopefully he gets himself a glass of whiskey and a revolver

Larbre34

For personal reasons.

sparky42

The Russians are now up to 7 dead generals, and more telling for the state of the Russian army, a Colonel was killed by his own unit after they took heavy losses. They ran him over with a tank…

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118835046#Comment_118835046

There was ten Russian generals sitting on a wall, ten Russian generals, ten Russian generals, ten Russian generals.

The Ukraine Army shot one down, shot one down.

There is nine Russian generals......

josip

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118835046#Comment_118835046

Run over yes, still to be confirmed that he died.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/25/russian-troops-mutiny-commander-ukraine-report-western-officials

sparky42

As the Ukrainians push Russian forces back from Kyiv, there's increasing reports from Ukrainians and media of significant mass killings of civilians having been carried out by Russian forces over the last month...

Alkers

Haven't heard of any mass killings but there's lots of documented killings of one or two civilians alright, some captured on drone footage.

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118873142#Comment_118873142

The AP is reporting that a mass grave of some 300 has been found in one of the newly liberated towns.

Alkers

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118874277#Comment_118874277

What is a tankie?

I was in no way excusing or condoning such behaviour if that's what you've interpreted from my post.

Does mass killing not imply multiple at one time, which is a whole level of barbarism above individual incidents of civilians being killed?

When I posted that, I hadn't heard anything of mass graves etc which has come out now, there's no need to attack me with a post like that.

ancientmariner

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118877940#Comment_118877940

Indeed the Ukrainians got well weeded by the Soviets in 1932/33 when they were deliberately starved and lost 3.5 million from their village structures including the Kharkiv region. They always denied in Moscow that it ever happened, even though they implemented capital punishment for stealing food.

sparky42

In the latest twist and on foot of the increasing evidence of widespread Russian crimes against civilians (though to be fair there’s footage coming out suggesting Russian pows are being killed by Ukrainian units over the last few days), the US Senate has passed a new Lend Lease Act for Ukraine and for Eastern European NATO members for at least two years. It still has to pass the House but could have huge impact on those nations buying new military hardware.

sparky42

Mixed reports tonight that the Cruiser Moskva having been hit by a Ukrainian ASM overnight (or spontaneously combusted according to the Russians) has sunk while under tow to Port.

Russian state media now reporting that Moskva has sunk.

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118928475#Comment_118928475

Yep, like everything else so far the Russian military has seriously exposed itself, and the Russians don’t have the ability to replace their losses.

Bass Reeves

It was a serious piece of equipment. It has a range of 18k kilometres and a top speed of 60kph.

Technically it should not have been sunk. It had three tiers of defence.

''

The cruiser is equipped with a triple-tiered air defence system that if operating properly should give it three opportunities to defend itself from a Neptune missile attack.

In addition to medium- and short-range defences, it can engage six short-range close-in weapon systems (CIWS) as a last resort.

"The Moskva should have 360-degree anti-air defence coverage. The CIWS system can fire 5,000 rounds in a minute, essentially creating a wall of flak around the cruiser, its last line of defence," Mr Bentham said. ''