Crimea - recent escalations

Jimbob1977

In the past two days, there has been some sabre rattling and posturing in the Crimean region.

The Ukrainian president has suggested that he is prepared to authorise a military campaign to re-take Crimea.

In response, Russia has increased troop activity on their southern border.

President Biden said that the United States stands with Ukraine, but it's hard to gauge the precise meaning.

Russia is a formidable foe, compared to Libya, Afghanistan or Iraq.

It's a tricky situation. The Crimea is recognised as part of Ukraine, but the overwhelming majority of the population are Russian.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56616778

wpd

is the Ukraine in Nato?? if not why are Nato alarmed

the rest of us are surviving on loaned money and battling a pandemic and these
want to start a war

let them look after themselves if they do

EmmetSpiceland

Nothing stimulates an economy, or at least distracts from a poor one, quite like a war.

Cannon to right of them, Cannon to left of them!

Thelonious Monk

Oh boohoo Crimea river. I can see clearly now Ukraine has gone.
Sorry.

banie01

EmmetSpiceland wrote: »

Nothing stimulates an economy, or at least distracts from a poor one, quite like a war.

Cannon to right of them, Cannon to left of them!

Cannon in front of them, volleyed and thundered!

Kermit.de.frog

wpd wrote: »

is the Ukraine in Nato?? if not why are Nato alarmed

the rest of us are surviving on loaned money and battling a pandemic and these
want to start a war

let them look after themselves if they do

Ukraine is one of the most strategically important countries in the world. It's also a buffer between Russia and Europe. Very important.

igCorcaigh

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Ukraine is one of the most strategically important countries in the world. It's also a buffer between Russia and Europe. Very important.

Geography is destiny they say.

That part of the world do seem to fight out questions of territory.
Depressing and dangerous.

banie01

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Ukraine is one of the most strategically important countries in the world. It's also a buffer between Russia and Europe. Very important.

Agreed.
It's the new Poland!
The EU and NATO membership have shifted the traditional border between civilized Europe and the Russian bear further east, and into the traditionally Russian sphere of influence.

Silentcorner

EmmetSpiceland wrote: »

Nothing stimulates an economy, or at least distracts from a poor one, quite like a war.

Cannon to right of them, Cannon to left of them!

Except for American wars in the Obama years right?

igCorcaigh

https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1378441481829167112

biko

Biden won't do ****.

Your Face

Not a popular one, Joe.

Too hard to score virtue points with this.

Gregor Samsa

There's no way the US is being drawn into a war with Russia, certainly not over the Crimea, which Russia has had 6 years to solidify their possession of. So much time that they've joined it to Russia with a bloody bridge. Russia wouldn't give it up without a fight, Ukraine doesn't have the military to do it themselves, and the US don't have enough to gain by getting involved.

Plus, if the US were to pump the billions of dollars, military resources and years of time into it, China are currenlty buzzing bombers and fighters over Taiwan, and would only be only too happy to take advantage of the US being otherwise engaged to invade the island. The US would have to defend Taiwan, so suddenly they're fighting the 2nd and 3rd world military powers on two different fronts.

Is "liberating" the Crimean peninsula (not the people, because the ones that don't want to be part of Russia have already left) worth kicking off World War III for? Ukrainian fantasy aside, everyone knows it's not.

igCorcaigh

Gregor Samsa wrote: »

There's no way the US is being drawn into a war with Russia, certainly not over the Crimea, which Russia has had 6 years to solidify their possession of. So much time that they've joined it to Russia with a bloody bridge. Russia wouldn't give it up without a fight, Ukraine doesn't have the military to do it themselves, and the US don't have enough to gain by getting involved.

Plus, if the US were to pump the billions of dollars, military resources and years of time into it, China are currenlty buzzing bombers and fighters over Taiwan, and would only be only too happy to take advantage of the US being otherwise engaged to invade the island. The US would have to defend Taiwan, so suddenly they're fighting the 2nd and 3rd world military powers on two different fronts.

Is "liberating" the Crimean peninsula (not the people, because the ones that don't want to be part of Russia have already left) worth kicking off World War III for? Ukrainian fantasy aside, everyone knows it's not.

I hope you're right!

Fr Tod Umptious

biko wrote: »

Biden won't do ****.

Well seeing as Obama did nothing when this first off back in 2014 I agree that Biden will do nothing.

igCorcaigh

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Well seeing as Obama did nothing when this first off back in 2014 I agree that Biden will do nothing.

But if Russia invades Donbass?

Nothing substantial will happen here, America is retreating more and more from world affairs.

Kermit.de.frog

igCorcaigh wrote: »

But if Russia invades Donbass?

Putin needs a distraction for the populace from Navalny whom he fears.

igCorcaigh

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Putin needs a distraction for the populace from Navalny whom he fears.

Is Navalny a big talking point in Russia?
I have no idea.

ILoveYourVibes

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Putin needs a distraction for the populace from Navalny whom he fears.

This is all this is.

But the truth is most most Russians don't actually support the annexation of crimea or more military action they are tired of Russian wars. Plus all the men there have to do military service. So they are REALLY sick of it.

igCorcaigh

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

This is all this is.

But the truth is most most Russians don't actually support the annexation of crimea or more military action they are tired of Russian wars. Plus all the men there have to do military service. So they are REALLY sick of it.

I would imagine that this is the case.
Like most countries, people just want to get on with their lives and earn a living.

Those crazy nationalist military dreams mean little to most people.

Also it looks like they are shoring up their Western border to provide a buffer between their Western border and the NATO aligned West. Russia is a dying nati
on, they are losing between 500,000 and a million people a year due to demographic decline, this is only going to get worse as the years go on. Their nuclear and energy capacity means they still remain relevant but this really looks like a low intensity long term argument between them and the Americans, who I don't think ultimately really care.

Pa ElGrande

Crimea is running out of water and it is also a drain on Russian finances.
It is however strategic to the Russian military to maintain access to the Black sea and a gateway to the Mediterranean.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aqq8clIceys

Lots of flexing going on at the moment from both sides.


Tanks being moved in Ukraine early March timeframe.

https://twitter.com/MilitaryBlog/status/1370315978102427650


And there is a constitutional crisis in Ukraine

The Constitutional Court of Ukraine (CCU) recently plunged the country into one of its deepest crises in its 30-year history. Specifically, on October 27, 2020, the Court declared that the main elements of Ukraine’s anti-corruption legislation, adopted between 2014 and 2020, were unconstitutional. In response, President Zelensky introduced legislation calling for the early termination of all Constitutional Court judges. Later, in December, he suspended the chairman of the Court for two months.

The result was widespread chaos in Ukraine’s political system. Zelensky’s actions were of questionable legality and provoked harsh criticism from all political sides. The ramifications of the Court’s decision include the cancellation of over 100 pending corruption investigations, a development that potentially could endanger future EU-Ukraine trade and economic cooperation Ukraine under the 2014 Association Agreement.

source

And of course negotiating IMF loans.

Since then, everything has rapidly fallen apart and now Ukraine is facing the prospect of a debilitating currency and debt crisis in the second half of next year, as it doesn't have the resources to deal with $11bn of debt that matures in the third quarter of 2021, Elina Ribakova, deputy chief economist with the Institute of International Finance (IIF) and Evghenia Sleptsova, senior economist for Russia and the CIS of Oxford Economics told bne IntelliNews in a recent podcast (listen here, watch here).

“It's a typical Ukraine story: two steps forward, one step backwards,” says Sleptsova.

source

This is not a wealthy country and the loss of it's industrial region in the Est (Donbass) does not make things easier.

As of January this year, 8.3 million people in Ukraine received the state pension with a minimum monthly payment of 1,769 hryvnia (64 dollars) and at an average of 3,507 hryvnia (126 dollars). Enditem

source

From the comments section of a Turcopolier article.

If the US is not careful it is going to give the Russians another opportunity to show to the World their military prowess, the flexibility of their Military District system allowing multi front operation and their unfailing support for an ally. As well as potentially letting the Russians show to Europe that they have nothing to fear, if they stop at 30 miles or so and basically go back home. All whilst the US demonstrates the opposite, but then reinforcing DC may trump the World.

We will know in the next few weeks.

source

And English man recently visited the region and filmed some videos.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2bNzjBJF_G0

Gopniks would probably be the Russian versions of Skanger or Chav culture.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_XbX3eZu7-I

Piollaire

Deleted User wrote: »

Their nuclear and energy capacity means they still remain relevant

Europe buying up Russian gas via the Nord Stream pipeline helps keep Putin's coffers topped up.

Piollaire

Deleted User wrote: »

Russia is a dying nation, they are losing between 500,000 and a million people a year due to demographic decline, this is only going to get worse as the years go on.

Stats show that Russia's population has been pretty steady but is forecasted to decline.

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/RUS/russia/population

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/russia-population/

Piollaire

Piollaire wrote: »

Stats show that Russia's population has been pretty steady but is forecasted to decline.

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/RUS/russia/population

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/russia-population/

Those websites aren't accurate, their population declined by over half a million people last year, partly due to the pandemic but also due to a very low fertility rate. This will continue to get worse from now on even with the mitigating factor of some inward migration from Russian speaking areas of neighbouring countries.

grassylawn

Deleted User wrote: »

Those websites aren't accurate, their population declined by over half a million people last year, partly due to the pandemic but also due to a very low fertility rate. This will continue to get worse from now on even with the mitigating factor of some inward migration from Russian speaking areas of neighbouring countries.

They have more credibility than Unknown Forum Poster.

grassylawn

grassylawn wrote: »

They have more credibility than Unknown Forum Poster.

Haha, relax chief, the stats are freely available...

Natural population loss of 688,000

https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/TwbjciZH/edn12-2020.html

TheValeyard

Things must be bad on the home front so Putin needs to distract the people with another war. Dont think it will work this time though.

Pa ElGrande

TheValeyard wrote: »

Things must be bad on the home front so Putin needs to distract the people with another war. Dont think it will work this time though.

He is busy "weaponising" Charlie Sheen.

With the US/UK press in full Russia hysteria mode, right now, it's time for a thread on things the Anglo-American media has accused Moscow of "weaponising."

We shall start with Charlie Sheen.

Yes. Really. Not a joke.

source

Though not the only thing the Russians are "weaponising" and their military buildup EVERYWHERE.



Realistically the Ukrainian government will have to cede Crimea and do a deal on the water and electricity in exchange for securing their eastern borders and keeping the gas flowing during Winter while they work through the sovereign debt default. The Russian government can bide it's time and pick the moment where it can extract maximum concessions to create a vassal state. IMHO - The most workable option for all concerned is Finlandisation.

McGinniesta

Jimbob1977 wrote: »

In the past two days, there has been some sabre rattling and posturing in the Crimean region.

The Ukrainian president has suggested that he is prepared to authorise a military campaign to re-take Crimea.

In response, Russia has increased troop activity on their southern border.

President Biden said that the United States stands with Ukraine, but it's hard to gauge the precise meaning.

Russia is a formidable foe, compared to Libya, Afghanistan or Iraq.

It's a tricky situation. The Crimea is recognised as part of Ukraine, but the overwhelming majority of the population are Russian.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56616778

The president should learn how to stand on a staircase.