Is FF gone as a party?

Bobtheman

Parties like FF rarely totally disappear. It's nearly a 100 years old. You'd be hard pressed to find a party that old that disappeared.
The last election was quite bizzare. The SF vote just increased out of nowhere. It has so far held up there.
FF poll ratings are poor but not at the stage where if an election was called today they'd disappear.
The Irish electorate have been volatile since 2011.
It's hard to predict who SF would be in power with after next election. I would not rule out another FG/FF government if they finally get housing on track.

Jizique

Tippman24 wrote: »

Traditional FF voter here. I have to agree with the comments made about the future existence of FF being at risk. I don't know which politician referred to the vision thing, but FF certaintly need it at the moment. What does the party stand for needs to be addressed immediately. There is an opening for a party to stand up for people who work, pay their taxes and expect the State to honour their side of the bargain. Why does middle Ireland pay for private health insurance when X billion go to the HSE to run a ramshakle system. In the case of the DAVY stockbroker scandal, why is there no prosecution being undertaken. A few years ago I went down the street to hear music coming from a pub on a Friday night. i made enquiries of the reason for same to be told that it was for a retirement party, but the retiree had never worked a day in his life. I was told that the party was to celebrate going from the dole to the pension. A party that would campaign on these issues has a future, but otherwise it just becomes one more bland name in the field of many.

Re Davy, I suspect that no law was broken; it was really bad form, shocking treatment of a customer and appalling ethics, but not a crime.
Not a fan of FF, but I associate them with every misery that has befallen the state since my birth in 1964, and they are now largely irrelevant; Martin is poor and is a very unconvincing Taoiseach; they stand for nothing (did they ever?) and will not be missed.

I think whichever party of FF or FG moves back centre right will have a resurgence.

I thought the FG promise a few years ago of representing people who get up in the morning or whatever was the best political strategy, its just that they didn't follow through.

Every party seems to be catering to an extreme minority on twitter who want a free gaff for everyone beside their family, medical cards for all, open borders etc with no tax increases. They all seem to be wooing that tiny cohort who will refer to FF/FG as far right fascists no matter what they do.

Hard decisions about things like pensions need to be made going forward and I think if FF or FG made election promises that actually prioritised middle class voters, they would increase their vote.

Pussyhands

What is the supposed difference between FG and FF?

Tell me how

I says wrote: »

Yes and fg also.

FFS. one of both of these parties has been in every party since the foundation of the state, but now both of them are finished?
They have seen Labour, PD's and now the Greens come and go.

Most likely SF will get a shot before too long, in spite of themselves really to be honest. They are capable of talking out of both sides of their mouth as much as anyone. And the marginal Labour, PBP's, Soc Dems and the like might sneak in for an opportunity in a minority position of a coalition.

FF/FG have plenty to be embarrassed/ashamed about but the idea that both (or either) are finished as a party is laughable at this point. Come back to me when the alternatives have had a shot at governance and dealing with a crises or two and then maybe we'll see but there's zero evidence to suggest this is going to be the case at this point. These replacements have thus far been in a position where all they have to deliver are soundbites. It's a different game when you are in the hot seat. SF should know this from their time in the north, but the northern side of the brain doesn't seem to talk to the southern side it seems.

Zebra3

Deleted User wrote: »

I thought the FG promise a few years ago of representing people who get up in the morning or whatever was the best political strategy, its just that they didn't follow through.

Varadkar is great for a soundbite. He'd have made a great president.

His remark about looking after the person getting up in the morning has been deeply exposed by the insurance fraudsters in his party, Dara Murphy, and the never ending scams of (ex-)politicians not paying their Dáil bar bills and claiming expenses for virtual meetings. The gravy train paid for by us, abused by his mates.

Pussyhands

Pussyhands wrote: »

What is the supposed difference between FG and FF?

I would have said years ago that FF was more socially conservative and financially liberal and FG was more financially conservative but honestly now I have no idea what either of them stand for.

If you remember FF wouldn't come out for or against gay marriage around the time of the referendum but campaigned for repeal the 8th whereas FG I think campaigned for both gay marriage and repeal the 8th.

I do think both parties have lost their identities and have failed to replenish their bases

I remember ten years ago when FF were "finished".

JohnnyChimpo

Bobtheman wrote: »

Parties like FF rarely totally disappear. It's nearly a 100 years old. You'd be hard pressed to find a party that old that disappeared.

The Whigs predated the concept of political parties, and were dominant for about 200 years before dissolving in the mid-19th c. It's unusual but it does happen.

I don't think FF is gone at this election, but if they get as hammered as current polling would suggest, it could be very difficult to avoid the slippery slope

Zebra3

Deleted User wrote: »

I would have said years ago that FF was more socially conservative and financially liberal and FG was more financially conservative but honestly now I have no idea what either of them stand for.

If you remember FF wouldn't come out for or against gay marriage around the time of the referendum but campaigned for repeal the 8th whereas FG I think campaigned for both gay marriage and repeal the 8th.

I do think both parties have lost their identities and have failed to replenish their bases

FG have defo changed to being a more socially liberal party. Gone are the days of locking up single women for getting pregnant and giving the nonces in the RC church the run of the country, but they have big appeal to people on "good money" that they'll look after them.

Genuinely lost for what FF stand for.

dubstepper

FF I would have said are morally conservative but somewhat left of center when it comes to economics. Certainly in the Berite years they tried to play the party of the people. As others have said they are no longer the party of the people as they ruined the country. Most people will not forget that. On top of that the near annihilation of the church in Ireland has weakened another element of FF attraction as the country kicks back against conservatism. I don't think they are going anywhere soon they have no realistic hope of getting the numbers to lead the government.

As for FG, they have general economic trend on their side. As the country becomes more wealthy they are the natural benefactors of this. A right of center party will appeal to most of the middle class which is home to more and more.

It's depressing as there is no choice in Ireland. FF/FG/Labour are more or less the same. The Greens always disappoint once in government.

JohnnyChimpo

JohnnyChimpo wrote: »

I don't think FF is gone at this election, but if they get as hammered as current polling would suggest, it could be very difficult to avoid the slippery slope

I think the next GE will be really interesting because of the pressure on SF to field more candidates. I know in my constituency in Galway (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galway_West_(D%C3%A1il_constituency) ) FF had 22.6% of the 1st preferences but only got 1 candidate elected, FG had a higher FP vote (18.1%) than SF (14%) but split their vote between two candidates so barely got one TD.

Now if SF were to run another candidate, they may not get either elected and also will ruin whatever chances people on the left who rely on transfers like Catherine Connolly have. SF running a second candidate here could actually mean both FF and FG each get two TD's from here. The electoral maths of SF running more candidates might actually be really beneficial for FF/FG.

Galwayguy35

After the election in 2011 I was sure they were gonners, when they came back form that they will survive anything.

Galwayguy35

RandomViewer wrote: »

Huge number of under 30s aren't registered to vote, politics is in as big a decline as religion,

I'd be a bit worried about that, the politics bit I mean.

Idbatterim

Ff only possible salvation, would be to get in a no nonsense leader non snowflake, woke gimp, that rewarded the early risers , and actually deliver. Do what varadkar said he would...

Idbatterim

McGinniesta wrote: »

Isn't it strange that, the next time they were elected to government the arsehole fell out of the economy again.

Perhaps not their fault but their response verges on the negligent.

Ff are a disgrace, but fg started the whole process... there is not an iota ffg would have done different on handling of crisis. Varadkar is the one who depicted his duties and responsibilities to a shower of unelected, single minded band of fools...

Idbatterim

Government buildings wrote: »

It was going to happen that either Fianna Fail or Fine Gael would become the minority party and would eventually merge, as there is no difference between them.

The only way for Fianna Fail to survive was to develop more right-wing policies. This didn't happen.

I think Sinn Fein will be in power on their own next time. The Great White hope.

Where will we turn to after Sinn Fein?

I posted my reply after reading the first page, but you hit the nail on the head here... all of them going for the left vote, is comedy... all you have to do to stand out and be rewarded here... is the unthinkable in ireland, speak the truth....

Idbatterim

Fred Cryton wrote: »

Irish politics has polarized into the Shinners on one side (welfare dependents, students, vigilantes, criminals and anti-vaxxers) and FG on the other (middle class, higher rate taxpayers, multinational workers and retired parents of same)


Fundamentally FF need to decide where they stand on that spectrum. They are in very very big trouble if the middle class even get a sniff they might get into bed with SF. Don't envy their position right now in politics.

You have to be taking the piss, ok you throw the usual stereotypes at sf. But fg are the exact same, except they also lust after rip off property prices, that hammer a large part of the population and laughably, the ones they claim to represent most....

Gregor Samsa

Fred Cryton wrote: »

I don't see that happening. Why would it fall? Would be Turkeys voting for Christmas. Better to leave SF waiting another 4 years and Covid will be distant memory by then. Housing will still be the main issue at the next election.

Because if the pubs and hotels don’t open back up by July, FF backbenchers won’t be able to resit a leadership heave, which will start the airing of all kinds of discontent with the coalition. The bickering will snowball, and egos will get in the way of pragmatics. The Greens won’t be able to resist the urge to implode too, the discontent of the anti-coalition faction is always simmering and will come to the surface.

So theres the chance of two of the coalition parties having a new leader - not even to mention Leo’s prospects with the leak enquiry (but I think FG have some viable options to replace him if it comes to that). A new FF leader won’t automatically be Taoiseach in the coalition - the arrangement will have to be renegotiated, with the Greens too.

There’s a good chance then that either the new FF leader will play hard ball to distinguish themselves from MM, the Greens will walk away on ideological grounds, or FG will just get the hump with the messing and take their chance with an election - knowing they’ve less chance of being punished than FF, and willing to leave SF to take the poison chalice of recovery from the mess while they regroup. FG know full well the value of waiting patiently in opposition - they’ve done it many times before.

I mean it's worse case scenario stuff (for the parties involved), but it's a real possibility.

Jizique

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

After the election in 2011 I was sure they were gonners, when they came back form that they will survive anything.

A lot of that was media-driven - now that they are back reminding us how utterly useless they are, I can’t as them getting a meaningful vote (15%+) next time.
By not being in govt, the media were able to talk them up, so they made a mini comeback in the previous election, had a solid campaign in the locals (when SF almost got wiped out), but it’s hard to see where the next recovery comes from.

Idbatterim

Feisar wrote: »

Yes, it's all well and good chasing the woke crowd as you say but ultimately pointless if they don't vote.

Absolutely, but why do ffg bend over for career welfareists, if they dont vote ? While working g people desert them... it's insane. One of the ordinary reasons is their fear of rte

Jizique

Idbatterim wrote: »

Absolutely, but why do ffg bend over for career welfareists, if they dont vote ? While working g people desert them... it's insane. One of the ordinary reasons is their fear of rte

Yes, SF and various lefties have the welfare vote locked up at this stage; I mean, look at the 4 TDs for the constituency of the Dubai 2, must be the only constituency with zero from FF, FG and Labour

Gregor Samsa

Deleted User wrote: »

I think the next GE will be really interesting because of the pressure on SF to field more candidates. I know in my constituency in Galway (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galway_West_(D%C3%A1il_constituency) ) FF had 22.6% of the 1st preferences but only got 1 candidate elected, FG had a higher FP vote (18.1%) than SF (14%) but split their vote between two candidates so barely got one TD.

Now if SF were to run another candidate, they may not get either elected and also will ruin whatever chances people on the left who rely on transfers like Catherine Connolly have. SF running a second candidate here could actually mean both FF and FG each get two TD's from here. The electoral maths of SF running more candidates might actually be really beneficial for FF/FG.

This is going to be one of SF's biggest challenges. They haven't had to really get deep into electoral strategy before. The numbers seem to suggest they got it wrong last time by not fielding enough candidates. The temptation will be there next time to field too many. Plus, who will they field? It's not like they've got a load of big guns sitting on the subs benches. It'll be unknowns, with no political experience - unproven Paddy Holohan and Violet-Anne Wynne types, who can end up being as much of a liability as a benefit. It's not like the old days of them having a pool of hardened, disciplined and experienced "community activists" to pull from.

_Kaiser_

Zebra3 wrote: »

FG have defo changed to being a more socially liberal party. Gone are the days of locking up single women for getting pregnant and giving the nonces in the RC church the run of the country, but they have big appeal to people on "good money" that they'll look after them.

Genuinely lost for what FF stand for.

Except, they won't. Leo and the "youth" within FG (McEntee, Harris etc) are all about their ego, profile and Twitter likes. They are great at the soundbites and appealing to the aforementioned Twitter types, but their primary achievement in the last decade was to make FF electable again.

Let's not forget the mess that is housing, health and justice under their watch, the endless scandals, the chancers like Bailey, or the fact that Leo himself is the subject of a criminal investigation at the moment

I've said it before so I'll say it again - FG are arguably WORSE than FF.
We only don't see it as much because they are never elected on their own merits but as a protest vote when FF lose the run of themselves - and then only until they remind the public why that is, as they did last time out.

FF of course aren't any better and Martin is probably the worst leader they've had in a while (and I'd include Cowen in that who was thrown under the bus by Bertie who saw the way the wind was blowing), and they have no personalities or even anyone you'd feel confident could unite the party and public behind them.

The danger is SF and the alphabet soup left. They were very close to being in Government last year (again the result of a protest vote against FG) and if they DO succeed those of us who DO work and pay for everything in this country will suffer significantly before their undoubtedly unstable coalition falls apart and we end up back at square one.

Vote Independent and you get a bunch of one-issue parochial types (who are just as likely cast-offs from FF/FG as well) who can't agree on anything. Greens will just make everything worse because they're either completely detached from reality (Ryan) or working hard to undermine the country itself (O'Gorman and his "own door" refugee plans), or just fighting among themselves.
What's left? Labour..? Anyone REALLY want to see Alan Kelly as Taoiseach?

We really are sorely lacking a real centre-right party in this country, but then because of the increasing influence of social media nonsense into the real world, anything "right" these days is worse than Hitler :rolleyes:

Of course we the electorate have to take responsibility for this too. We keep electing these chancers and spoofers and then taking no interest in their activities unless it personally benefits us (planning applications, medical cards etc). Plus we still admire the "cute hoor" so we don't really mind when someone is caught out.

Add in an impending recession (which was already on the horizon before we added tens of billions of debt to the bill in the last year) and whatever way you turn, anyone who DOES pay their way and tries to do things the right way in this country may prepare themselves for Austerity 2.0 and even more waste, corruption, and incompetence than we've seen to-date.

Eric Cartman

McGinniesta wrote: »

Short of pulling their jocks down and taking a dump on the floor of the dail, what do the FF party have to do before people truly realise their incompetence

its not what FF do, there just has to be a reasonable alternative to the shinner menace. A viable FF alternative that is popular enough to keep MLM out of government would do in FF.

Idbatterim

Cant wait for the " temporary " covid19 tax, levied only on workers of course. Likely only the wolf of wall street's income of 35k plus, paying a marginal rate of fifty percent, those elites...

Eric Cartman

Idbatterim wrote: »

Cant wait for the " temporary " covid19 tax, levied only on workers of course. Likely only the wolf of wall street's income of 35k plus, paying a marginal rate of fifty percent, those elites...

also wouldn't be shocked if its levied in such a way that public servants aren't affected. It'll be MM's final move before handing the reigns to Leo and disappearing into obscurity forever

TheCitizen

James Brown wrote: »

As long as their are self serving greedy people only interested in looking after their own, we'll have a FF (and of course a FG).

That's why we had both of them. You get what people vote for, but their vote share has shrunk alarmingly and it's not a once off thing, it's been incremental over decades.

The established media will continue to fight their corner, they're all in the same boat. Jim Callaghan/Miriam Callaghan etc etc etc. They're just the obvious ones.

For the electorate Sinn Fein are increasingly becoming a valid alternative. SF are not without their own faults, but the tide is with them.

Idbatterim

Eric Cartman wrote: »

also wouldn't be shocked if its levied in such a way that public servants aren't affected.

Of course, dont know how I missed that one. Will laugh if there is another big exodus of young single skilled workers, once they can leave...

thomas 123

Idbatterim wrote: »

Cant wait for the " temporary " covid19 tax, levied only on workers of course. Likely only the wolf of wall street's income of 35k plus, paying a marginal rate of fifty percent, those elites...

While house prices continue to rise but it’s all because we don’t work hard enough and spend money on things we don’t need.