Is FF gone as a party?

Loafing Oaf

pauliebdub wrote: »

Yes I think they are finished in the long term. I just don't see a space for them. Young people will continue to shun them and as they get older will not vote for FF.

They may shuffle on for another 10 or 15 years with some prominent TD's with a large personal vote that continues to vote for them. Their left wing vote will go to SF and their right wing vote will go to FG who will not join in coalition with SF.

Thing is, a lot of people were saying these things ten years ago, and they came back. Maybe they are truly finished this time but I wouldn't stake my life on it.

skimpydoo

skimpydoo wrote: »

Care to name the young blood you speak off? I can't think who they could be.

Doh! silly me. It's Eoghan Murphy, Maria Bailey, Josepha Madigan, John Paul Phelan, Martin Heydon and Neale 'Richmond.

StupidLikeAFox

smurgen wrote: »

FG are goosed. They've dropped like a stone. Young blood like who? Harris and Eoghan Murphy that collapsed the government?

Goosed?? In the 30 years between 1981 and 2011 FG were in government for a total of 7.5 years. Since then they have been in government for the last 10 years and are the joint most popular party in the state. I'm not a FG supporter btw

FF should have cleared out the old guard 10 years ago but they held on to martin - who is a poor leader, a poor speaker and a relic of the past. He was never going to revitalise or modernise the party and its hard to see who's waiting in the wings to do that.

StupidLikeAFox

skimpydoo wrote: »

Doh! silly me. It's Eoghan Murphy, Maria Bailey, Josepha Madigan, John Paul Phelan, Martin Heydon and Neale 'Richmond.

My initial post wasn't a comment on anyones ability

Loafing Oaf

smurgen wrote: »

FG are goosed. They've dropped like a stone.

Since 2011? That's because FF have been on the way back over that period. But what if FF really are round 10% as the polls indicate? Can both parties be goosed, or will there not always be a large element of pendulum swing between the two?

KaneToad

This country is a FF voting country, in the main. Unless FF have spectacularly made a balls of something - e.g. their horrendous management of the economy - they tend to be in power.

They promise all things to all men. This is the new SF m.o. too. They've recognised the secret of FF's success and are trying to steal their clothes.

(I've never voted FF or SF...)

skimpydoo

StupidLikeAFox wrote: »

My initial post wasn't a comment on anyones ability

Which specific TD's were you speaking off?

Calhoun

Its hard to see how they will have made any gains since taking over government, like even them being in government is crazy they are only in partnership with FG because Martin didnt want to be the only leader not to be taoisearch.

Covid would be hard for any government but it just seems so much worse under FF than it did with FG. Martin giving exclusive interviews to rag newspapers is complete and utter bull**** and mismanagement everywhere is bad.

Right now the problem the government have is that after near 5 months of quarantine all we hear from nphet is the same old doom and gloom while the economy is going down the drain there is no real road forward from them.

Sunny Disposition

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

Are you sure? Right now they have far more county councillors than anyone else.

You’d have to remember FF 50 years ago, it’s grassroots were very much listened to then, councillors and TDs would liaise far more with the Cummain at the time. There was kind of a social side too, with regular fundraising dances. Even 30 years ago it was still there to an extent.
I think there are parallels with FF in the 60s and SF and the Greens now, those parties have hungry members who really believe in what the parties can offer. FF has lost that. It does have a heap of councillors, but the age profile wouldn’t be as encouraging as SF.
I can’t see how FF can get the spark back.

FromADistance

The IMF bailout didn't finish FF as a party so they're here to stay I'm afraid, much like a crowd of cockroaches after an apocalypse....

dulpit

People here seem to be basing their opinions on the future of both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael on their personal opinion of the parties, rather than taking an objective view.

Like Fine Gael, as a party who have been in government for the last 10 years, to be in and around 30% is a good thing. The public know what Fine Gael will do in power, so that's baked into the polling. They also have an obvious demographic of voters and, regardless of what you think about them, they have a group of relatively young but high profile tds who could be successor to Leo (Coveney, Harris, McEntee, etc). That all suggests they'll remain at a consistent level for the foreseeable.

Looking at Sinn Féin, they had their best results last time out. They should have gotten more seats, and some people will feel that they should have gotten chance to be in government after that election. They have maintained their support in polls, they have a number of high profile tds (Pearse Doherty, Louise O'Reilly) and now look to be a credible alternative to Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael in the sense that they appear ready for government. Their biggest issue I see is that it will likely be impossible for them to please all of their supporters once they get into power, so I'd expect to see a slide in their support if they end up in government, but I still see them as the obvious opponent to Fine Gael for the next number of years.

The smaller centre left parties (Labour, Soc Dems and Greens) seem to be getting between 13 and 15% in polls, so I think there's an element of interchangeability between these parties, it's a question of which party will get the support from more or less the same cohort. Labour have traditional supporters and traditional names, the Soc Dems have big performers, I think the greens are in for a kicking though.

Ignoring the independents and the far left, that leaves Fianna Fáil. People here have said they have a lot of councillors, which is true. People have also said this country voted Fianna Fáil so often that they can't disappear. I don't see it. I struggle to come up with any significant cohort of voters who will vote Fianna Fáil, with the exception of the older voters. Unfortunately for FF, mortality being what it is, that is not a sustainable approach. They also have no power hitters they can put out on the radio or TV to bolster support, and I cannot see a single candidate who looks like they'd be able to lead the party in a direction that would attract new voters once Mícheál steps down. I don't see them dying completely, but I can see them going the way of the liberals in the UK. Still hanging around, sometimes being more relevant than others, but otherwise just another small party...

Wanderer78

^^^our housing situation is rapidly deteriorating, it's very unlikely it 'll be resolved before the next election cycle, so we could have some extremely unusual outcomes

Mike Murdock

Oranage2 wrote: »

Depends how sinn fein do, hard to see them not getting into power after the recent **** show that's FF/FG. Though FG have the better politicians at the moment FF is still the bigger brand . Hard to see them splitting

I think, much like Labour under Corbyn back in 2017, SF have peaked in terms of their GE performance.

They've hardly pushed up many trees in the last 12 months since the election. They generally agree with NPHET on Covid. A fact that gets brushed aside by their supporters attacking the FG/FF/Green ****show of a Government.

They hardly have a bunch of stellar potential Ministers either. And they are relying on three talking heads in the party for publicity.

They will remain in opposition after the next election.

Wanderer78

Wanderer78 wrote: »

^^^our housing situation is rapidly deteriorating, it's very unlikely it 'll be resolved before the next election cycle, so we could have some extremely unusual outcomes

Mike Murdock wrote: »

I think, much like Labour under Corbyn back in 2017, SF have peaked in terms of their GE performance.

They've hardly pushed up many trees in the last 12 months since the election. They generally agree with NPHET on Covid. A fact that gets brushed aside by their supporters attacking the FG/FF/Green ****show of a Government.

They hardly have a bunch of stellar potential Ministers either. And they are relying on three talking heads in the party for publicity.

They will remain in opposition after the next election.

oh keep an eye on this unraveling situation!

Mike Murdock

Wanderer78 wrote: »

oh keep an eye on this unraveling situation!

The thing is, a party that wants to accept more refugees into Ireland, and end direct provision is not going to solve the housing crisis.

lawred2

jimwallace197 wrote: »

Get up the yard, look at the state of their main politicians. Simon Harris who couldnt even finish a journalism degree but feels he can pontificate about covid 19 as a health minister without knowing 19 stood for the year it was found rather than the amount of corona viruses. On top of this, an absolute dope trying to appeal to the younger people with his tik tok videos.

Coveney, a miserable s**** if there ever was one. Clueless in negotiations with Britain in relation to Brexit and even more clueless in relation to which countries we should quarantine now, over a year after the pandemic started.

Heather Humphreys, I think anyone who has read the news lately knows everything there is to know about this hypocrite. I believe a second whistle blower has stepped forward about her now. To top it off, the brass neck on her defending Varadkar as she is about to take the justice ministry portfolio when he clearly committed a criminal act.

Helen McEntee, inherited a position from her Dad who was prominent in the Meath region. Nepotism at its finest, has never worked a day in the real world. Far out of her depth as the justice minister. More interested in going after men more than anything. A true feminist in that equality is not the aim of what she is trying to achieve but the suppression of male rights.

Josepha Madigan, we all know her involvement in the Maria Bailey scandal and how she encouraged her to go ahead with that claim, especially since it was Madigans family law firm Bailey went to. On top of this, wanting to remove the Kerryman newspaper name and replacing it with Kerry People seems to be high on her list of woke priorities in the time of an international crisis. Extremely hypocritical in that she campaigns vigorously against methadone clinics and travellers settling anywhere near her south Dublin constituency but is happy for them to be placed elsewhere. Not surprised her Dad's family is from Mayo tbh.

And Finally, Varadkar, I think we all know about him at this stage.

The sooner Fine Gael are removed permanently from our countries history the better.

Can you do the same for the other three main parties?

Shouldn't be too hard for you really.

Wanderer78

Mike Murdock wrote: »

The thing is, a party that wants to accept more refugees into Ireland, and end direct provision is not going to solve the housing crisis.

it has little or nothing to do with that, we ve defaulted to our previous position in regards its solution, and its failing again, it just seems to be failing at a quicker rate

Bobtheman

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Except, they won't. Leo and the "youth" within FG (McEntee, Harris etc) are all about their ego, profile and Twitter likes. They are great at the soundbites and appealing to the aforementioned Twitter types, but their primary achievement in the last decade was to make FF electable again.

Let's not forget the mess that is housing, health and justice under their watch, the endless scandals, the chancers like Bailey, or the fact that Leo himself is the subject of a criminal investigation at the moment

I've said it before so I'll say it again - FG are arguably WORSE than FF.
We only don't see it as much because they are never elected on their own merits but as a protest vote when FF lose the run of themselves - and then only until they remind the public why that is, as they did last time out.

FF of course aren't any better and Martin is probably the worst leader they've had in a while (and I'd include Cowen in that who was thrown under the bus by Bertie who saw the way the wind was blowing), and they have no personalities or even anyone you'd feel confident could unite the party and public behind them.

The danger is SF and the alphabet soup left. They were very close to being in Government last year (again the result of a protest vote against FG) and if they DO succeed those of us who DO work and pay for everything in this country will suffer significantly before their undoubtedly unstable coalition falls apart and we end up back at square one.

Vote Independent and you get a bunch of one-issue parochial types (who are just as likely cast-offs from FF/FG as well) who can't agree on anything. Greens will just make everything worse because they're either completely detached from reality (Ryan) or working hard to undermine the country itself (O'Gorman and his "own door" refugee plans), or just fighting among themselves.
What's left? Labour..? Anyone REALLY want to see Alan Kelly as Taoiseach?

We really are sorely lacking a real centre-right party in this country, but then because of the increasing influence of social media nonsense into the real world, anything "right" these days is worse than Hitler :rolleyes:

Of course we the electorate have to take responsibility for this too. We keep electing these chancers and spoofers and then taking no interest in their activities unless it personally benefits us (planning applications, medical cards etc). Plus we still admire the "cute hoor" so we don't really mind when someone is caught out.

Add in an impending recession (which was already on the horizon before we added tens of billions of debt to the bill in the last year) and whatever way you turn, anyone who DOES pay their way and tries to do things the right way in this country may prepare themselves for Austerity 2.0 and even more waste, corruption, and incompetence than we've seen to-date.

I think your analysis is spot on. We do need a genuinely right wing party. Not nationalist or anti immigrant but a party to represent tax payers and the private sector.
However housing gets in the way of that. There is not a sector in Ireland who is not suffering because of the crisis. The same for health. Even if you have private health insurance you still fork out a ton of money day to day expenses.
I'm not as negative about SF as you are. They might combine with FG or FF so that would be more stable.
The ideal would be that this government finally gets housing on track post covid. I'd happy reselect them if they did that

Wanderer78

Bobtheman wrote: »

I think your analysis is spot on. We do need a genuinely right wing party. Not nationalist or anti immigrant but a party to represent tax payers and the private sector.
However housing gets in the way of that. There is not a sector in Ireland who is not suffering because of the crisis. The same for health. Even if you have private health insurance you still fork out a ton of money day to day expenses.

so you want more of what we truly have?

Santan

If you had asked me 12 months ago I would have been voting for SF in the next general election, but if they were in government at the moment, their policy of zero covid would have had this country in lockdown a lot longer, airports and sea ports closed, boarders closed, and thinking the cure to paying for all this is just tax a few big companies more. I can't believe how far off the mark they are on this one. FF have handled this terribly with MM at the head of it since he became leader, if there was an election tomorrow based on the last 12 months, on evidence I would only be left with FG to vote for, pretty depressing thought.

Idbatterim

How any of you think this farce has been handled differently by mm, rather than leaky Leo, beggars belief. All of the handing nphet the reigns, dereliction of duty Leo started all of that!!! As long as you continue to support it, you expect change?!

Loafing Oaf

Mike Murdock wrote: »

I think, much like Labour under Corbyn back in 2017, SF have peaked in terms of their GE performance.

They've hardly pushed up many trees in the last 12 months since the election. They generally agree with NPHET on Covid. A fact that gets brushed aside by their supporters attacking the FG/FF/Green ****show of a Government.

They hardly have a bunch of stellar potential Ministers either. And they are relying on three talking heads in the party for publicity.

They will remain in opposition after the next election.

If after the next election, FF face a choice between putting FG back in again or a deal with SF, which way do you think they will swing?

Santan

Idbatterim wrote: »

How any of you think this farce has been handled differently by mm, rather than leaky Leo, beggars belief. All of the handing nphet the reigns, dereliction of duty Leo started all of that!!! As long as you continue to support it, you expect change?!

I really dislike how nphet have been given so much control during the 12 months, but I can't deny as much as I'd like to, Leo and Harris dealt with them better in the first 4 to 5 months, and were 100% better at the public messaging. Once MM became leader, and I feel when he made the first real public announcement in September about the planned levels, and having to look a total idiot 24 hours later with level 4 and a bit, it looked like he just handed all control to the CMO and nphet. Telling the country that "you are not confused" when trying to explain how each level could now have a bit extra or a bit less seem to drive him crazy to the point of passing though public questions to every one bar him, I think he has just taken the easy way out and deferred all responsibility to nphet just points to his lack of leadership skills in a time when leadership is what as a nation we are crying out for. Would you have thought 16 months ago that we would be looking at boris and with a twinge of jealousy.

Bobtheman

It's hard to analyse Irelands covid performance. Look at the rest of Europe?
We have had major failings in contact tracing that is for sure.
At this stage we have to think post covid
How do we solve housing etc
I have lost faith in FG and FF over housing.
They are still not in full emergency mode on that issue.
Same with health
As regards SF on these issues.. I'm not so sure.
They are bigger into public housing but don't seem to realise that the public sector is inefficient at getting its act together in terms of planning permission and bureaucratic nonsense. The state takes 60k off every house on tax too.
I don't pretend to understand the full Ins and outs of housing. I doubt anybody else here does too.
But if come 2024 and the next election I don't see the housing issue well on its way to being solved.. I'm voting SF.
I have a house but it's too big an issue for society to be not sorted. Especial homelessness.

Idbatterim

Bobtheman, watch realestate4ransom. You are thinking they cant get to grips with the housing crisis, that documentary explains why they love the rip off prices. I mean they can maintain power and benefit from rip off prices

Morally corrupt but total no brainers for these snake oil salesmen

Oh and the housing situation will be way way worse by 2024. Irelands taxation system is also an insane farce...

FileNotFound

Idbatterim wrote: »

How any of you think this farce has been handled differently by mm, rather than leaky Leo, beggars belief. All of the handing nphet the reigns, dereliction of duty Leo started all of that!!! As long as you continue to support it, you expect change?!

Nothing like a bit of name calling when you fail to have any kind of decent argument.

Sure MM is the taoiseach - but sure its all Leo's fault for leaking a document. If he hadn't covid and all our problems would be gone haha.


Not sure how people expect the housing crisis fixed, none of the parties seem to have a viable plan. Building costs are now very high - price an extension and you'll get heart palpitations. Mostly seems to be a lack of relevant trades and labour, only quick fix would be mass immigration into ireland no?

MrMusician18

Unless FF can turn the ship around, I genuinely think they are done for. After the last presidential election, I was sure I'd see a strong FF tack to the right as Casey proved there was definitely appetite for a right of centre party out there. Strangely though, they choose to not enter that space. They would do well enough there as the centre right is completely vacant.

Under a new leader they might go right, but it's too late to save them now.

Jizique

Who would take them in that direction though?
O Cuiv is too old - O’Callaghan too Dublin. Matty and the Healy Rae’s have left the party.

Mike Murdock

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

If after the next election, FF face a choice between putting FG back in again or a deal with SF, which way do you think they will swing?

FG. Better the devil you know.

FileNotFound

Mike Murdock wrote: »

FG. Better the devil you know.

I did read somewhere a while back that many of the back bench would rather an SF deal, I mean 4 yrs of SF policy and we will most likely never vote for them again :D:D

In fairness I think FF will have more support than we think, there will have been a few years of Leo to help forget the current mess, and they have a grass roots support that would not vote any other way end of.