Is FF gone as a party?

El Tarangu

Lots of people seem to be equating the fact that they don't themselves like FF (or FG) with one or either of these parties being "finished".

The Irish electorate are a fickle bunch - FF was wiped out in 2011, returning only a single Dublin TD. Three years in 2014, they became the party with the highest number of councillors in the country.

SF looked a busted flush in 2019 - they lost a full one-third of their elected councillors, and two of their three MEPs - and one of these MEPs had been beaten by not one, but two Dragons in the presidential election of the previous year. A year later, and they are the biggest party in the country.

The Irish electorate is anything but consistent, I would not be writing off FF just yet.

MrMusician18

Jizique wrote: »

Who would take them in that direction though?
O Cuiv is too old - O’Callaghan too Dublin. Matty and the Healy Rae’s have left the party.

I don't know, maybe McGrath? He's something of a blank canvas policy wise and I would guess will be O'Callaghan's challenger.

I thought that FF would lurch right after Casey but they didn't. It's certainly not like the FF of old to leave votes on the table. Usually years in the wilderness puts you more in touch with the base, but the opposite seems to have happened to FF.

L1011

MrMusician18 wrote: »

I don't know, maybe McGrath? He's something of a blank canvas policy wise and I would guess will be O'Callaghan's challenger.

I thought that FF would lurch right after Casey but they didn't. It's certainly not like the FF of old to leave votes on the table. Usually years in the wilderness puts you more in touch with the base, but the opposite seems to have happened to FF.

Casey's vote wasn't an actual right vote - being anti one of the many things he was anti doesn't mean you're against even more than one of them let alone politically on the right; and his declining results in other elections show that what was there isn't solid anyway.

Bubbaclaus

Lots of wishful thinking going on it here I'd say. Can't see them going anywhere.

awec

lawred2 wrote: »

Can you do the same for the other three main parties?

Shouldn't be too hard for you really.

I think the level of talent in FG is actually pretty good compared to politicians of similar standing in FF and SF.

FF in particular are lacking in this area.

SF don't have many TDs with much profile, and a few who have profiles for the wrong reasons!

MrMusician18

L1011 wrote: »

Casey's vote wasn't an actual right vote - being anti one of the many things he was anti doesn't mean you're against even more than one of them let alone politically on the right; and his declining results in other elections show that what was there isn't solid anyway.

Casey's vote was a right vote. It was obviously an expression of frustration of largely rural voters. The things that were frustrating them then are still frustrating them now. And just because you are anti everything without solutions is no bar to electoral success - look at SF!

If someone who could actually string a coherent sentence together ran for office in a respectable "anti-woke" way, they would do well enough in the rural constituencies. At least well enough to avoid extinction.

Loafing Oaf

MrMusician18 wrote: »

I don't know, maybe McGrath? He's something of a blank canvas policy wise and I would guess will be O'Callaghan's challenger.

I thought that FF would lurch right after Casey but they didn't. It's certainly not like the FF of old to leave votes on the table. Usually years in the wilderness puts you more in touch with the base, but the opposite seems to have happened to FF.

The seats FF lost (or didn't gain that they had hoped to gain) at last year's election largely went to SF. How would 'lurching to the right' have prevented that leakage?

Jizique

MrMusician18 wrote: »

I don't know, maybe McGrath? He's something of a blank canvas policy wise and I would guess will be O'Callaghan's challenger.

I thought that FF would lurch right after Casey but they didn't. It's certainly not like the FF of old to leave votes on the table. Usually years in the wilderness puts you more in touch with the base, but the opposite seems to have happened to FF.

Forgot about him - he is from the same constituency as Martin of course.
He is sensible and fairly harmless - he really is more a FGer than FF, where you need a bit of devilment like Ahern, Haughey, Albert, Ray Burke to stand out; in a sense, that is the problem with Martin as well, people don't want mere competence (not that Martin even exudes competence)

MrMusician18

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

The seats FF lost (or didn't gain that they had hoped to gain) at last year's election largely went to SF. How would 'lurching to the right' have prevented that leakage?

Depends on what way you present your argument. SFs rise was largely based around a dissatisfaction with the status quo and an absolute pie in the sky plan to resolve the housing crisis.

A law and order platform mixed with housing for taxpayers, blended with a change message could've done equally well. Basically the classic centre right platform. Maybe not extremely well, but better than polling 7% well.

L1011

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Depends on what way you present your argument. SFs rise was largely based around a dissatisfaction with the status quo and an absolute pie in the sky plan to resolve the housing crisis.

A law and order platform mixed with housing for taxpayers, blended with a change message could've done equally well. Basically the classic centre right platform. Maybe not extremely well, but better than polling 7% well.

Except FF pivoting to that when the entire target voter base is old enough to remember them failing to actually do that wouldn't really work.

Loafing Oaf

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Casey's vote was a right vote. It was obviously an expression of frustration of largely rural voters. The things that were frustrating them then are still frustrating them now. And just because you are anti everything without solutions is no bar to electoral success - look at SF!

If someone who could actually string a coherent sentence together ran for office in a respectable "anti-woke" way, they would do well enough in the rural constituencies. At least well enough to avoid extinction.

But look at Casey's performance in the general election. In his 'stronger' constituency of Dongeal he got 1.5% of the FPV. The only two candidates who finished below him AFAIK also ran on populist right platforms (although in their cases might actually have believed in it). When considering whether a 'lurch to the right' would be a good idea, FF will see that as far more relevant than Casey's performance in the presidential election.

Wanderer78

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

But look at Casey's performance in the general election. In his 'stronger' constituency of Dongeal he got 1.5% of the FPV. The only two candidates who finished below him AFAIK also ran on populist right platforms (although in their cases might actually have believed in it). When considering whether a 'lurch to the right' would be a good idea, FF will see that as far more relevant than Casey's performance in the presidential election.

casey showed we re well capable of going full retard at the ballot boxes alright

markodaly

jimwallace197 wrote: »

Get up the yard, look at the state of their main politicians. Simon Harris who couldnt even finish a journalism degree but feels he can pontificate about covid 19 as a health minister without knowing 19 stood for the year it was found rather than the amount of corona viruses. On top of this, an absolute dope trying to appeal to the younger people with his tik tok videos.

Coveney, a miserable s**** if there ever was one. Clueless in negotiations with Britain in relation to Brexit and even more clueless in relation to which countries we should quarantine now, over a year after the pandemic started.

Heather Humphreys, I think anyone who has read the news lately knows everything there is to know about this hypocrite. I believe a second whistle blower has stepped forward about her now. To top it off, the brass neck on her defending Varadkar as she is about to take the justice ministry portfolio when he clearly committed a criminal act.

Helen McEntee, inherited a position from her Dad who was prominent in the Meath region. Nepotism at its finest, has never worked a day in the real world. Far out of her depth as the justice minister. More interested in going after men more than anything. A true feminist in that equality is not the aim of what she is trying to achieve but the suppression of male rights.

Josepha Madigan, we all know her involvement in the Maria Bailey scandal and how she encouraged her to go ahead with that claim, especially since it was Madigans family law firm Bailey went to. On top of this, wanting to remove the Kerryman newspaper name and replacing it with Kerry People seems to be high on her list of woke priorities in the time of an international crisis. Extremely hypocritical in that she campaigns vigorously against methadone clinics and travellers settling anywhere near her south Dublin constituency but is happy for them to be placed elsewhere. Not surprised her Dad's family is from Mayo tbh.

And Finally, Varadkar, I think we all know about him at this stage.

The sooner Fine Gael are removed permanently from our countries history the better.

This is a funny post. Even a thread about FF still brings those who hate FG out of the woodwork.

Some bizarre and false claims made as well. Lots of fake news thrown in there.

McMurphy

markodaly wrote: »

This is a funny post. Even a thread about FF still brings those who hate FG out of the woodwork.

Some bizarre and false claims made as well. Lots of fake news thrown in there.

Such as?

I'd not necessarily agree with the Coveney assesment, but because I don't agree with someone else's opinion hardly makes it "fake news" either.

markodaly

Zebra3 wrote: »

Your nonsense will come as a huge shock to students from wealthy backgrounds.

I've spent most of my career working for MNCs. You're very of touch if you think you can just lump all employees of MNCs in together.

Criminals tend to flock to FF, they love a good amnesty sure. Anti-vaxxers in SF? Doubt any more so than FFFG.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/vaccination-is-crucial-sinn-fein-tells-reluctant-supporters-5f8klx7jf

The Times reported in April that researchers from Maynooth University and Trinity College Dublin had found that those who voted for Sinn Féin in the general election in February were most sceptical of all voters of taking a vaccine,

dulpit

Wanderer78 wrote: »

casey showed we re well capable of going full retard at the ballot boxes alright

You have to imagine that the reason Casey got such a high vote was because it was a Presidential election. It's a safe election to throw votes at a loon.

From the looks of it, there's no real market for anything more right wing than FG on the economic scale. There's possibly a market for more right wing/conservative social values, but it's not like Aontú are lighting up the polls either...

markodaly

McMurphy wrote: »

Such as?

I'd not necessarily agree with the Coveney assesment, but because I don't agree with someone else's opinion hardly makes it "fake news" either.

The tropes about Helen McEntee for example. She worked in Citibank for 3 years before entering politics. The strange and weird statements about her being anti-man and some hard extreme feminists.. blah blah blah... the usual sexist stuff about women in politics bolted on.

markodaly

RandomViewer wrote: »

Drug dealers vote FG, everyone knows that, 150 previous convictions and no danger of jail, Gemma and the anti-lockdown brigade are all FG genepool, middle classes see their kids struggling to get homes or permanent job positions under FG , no one goes to their SF councillor or TD looking for a council house, thats FF/FG territory ,

The same Gemma who got SF councillors to support her nomination for the presidency, that Gemma?

RandomViewer

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

But look at Casey's performance in the general election. In his 'stronger' constituency of Dongeal he got 1.5% of the FPV. The only two candidates who finished below him AFAIK also ran on populist right platforms (although in their cases might actually have believed in it). When considering whether a 'lurch to the right' would be a good idea, FF will see that as far more relevant than Casey's performance in the presidential election.

Casey thought that because Donegal was rural that it would be insular not realising that almost everyone would have travelled for work and have been used to different cultures,

MrMusician18

dulpit wrote: »

You have to imagine that the reason Casey got such a high vote was because it was a Presidential election. It's a safe election to throw votes at a loon.

From the looks of it, there's no real market for anything more right wing than FG on the economic scale. There's possibly a market for more right wing/conservative social values, but it's not like Aontú are lighting up the polls either...

The problem with the right is that they cannot seem to shake off the religious and the racists. Both being extremely toxic politically any association with that more extreme kind of stuff will kill you off electorally.
That could be the reason that FF have avoided that strategy as it is high risk. They may well also not see enough votes in it to be worthwhile - but that's no votes in what they are doing now either.

How does the default party of government essentially rebrand itself as radical change - probably only by radically changing itself. It can be done though - look at what the Tories accomplished at the last election.

Wanderer78

dulpit wrote: »

You have to imagine that the reason Casey got such a high vote was because it was a Presidential election. It's a safe election to throw votes at a loon.

From the looks of it, there's no real market for anything more right wing than FG on the economic scale. There's possibly a market for more right wing/conservative social values, but it's not like Aontú are lighting up the polls either...

i think casey has shown, we re well capable of going anywhere with this, and if our housing situation deteriorates any further, which it looks to be.....

Wanderer78

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The problem with the right is that they cannot seem to shake off the religious and the racists. Both being extremely toxic politically any association with that more extreme kind of stuff will kill you off electorally.
That could be the reason that FF have avoided that strategy as it is high risk. They may well also not see enough votes in it to be worthwhile - but that's no votes in what they are doing now either.

How does the default party of government essentially rebrand itself as radical change - probably only by radically changing itself. It can be done though - look at what the Tories accomplished at the last election.

pushed towards absolute full retard

timmyntc

RandomViewer wrote: »

Casey thought that because Donegal was rural that it would be insular not realising that almost everyone would have travelled for work and have been used to different cultures,

Casey failed to realise that when people vote for TDs, their own economic interest comes first.

Protest votes are all well and good when it comes to president (president doesnt DO anything), but electing Casey over a TD with a proven track record or one in an established party would be a big own goal.


People's #1 voting intention is economic issues not social - its why FG still get their core vote because they are seen (somehow) as the party of lower taxes and financial sense (though I would not agree).

Its why young people vote SF, because they address big economic issues like rising insurance costs and housing prices.

FF don't have any economic presence or political standpoint. Like honestly - what kind of economic policies do FF stand for? I genuinely don't know - and that is their problem.

C3PO

I says wrote: »

Yes and fg also.

Fine Gael are the biggest party in the country!

Annasopra

skimpydoo wrote: »

It's looking more likely that FF is slowly disintegrating and more info is in the Irish Examiner story below.

Is it time that FF and FG merged? Because it looks like only of these two party's will be left standing.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-40258550.html?fbclid=IwAR0xsK3xJuNWFsV12OJt6FxEe9dsMIpcCnTBEh9Je8K2AnjKtmUu487QWjU

I think FF could fall apart and most join FG and a small section join SF

Fuzzyduzzy

People will not give up traditions so easily. The wife's side of the family would never go against them, same for many others. It's adorable how folk still connect a political party with people from over 100 years ago.

GarIT

A lot of people don't see that SF's voter spectrum is like a horse shoe. We don't have a decent right or conservative party becasue SF gets all the conservative votes. For a very long time nobody would vote for SF except the right and a lot of them are now disgusted with SF's direction but will still vote for them for a UI vote. I canvassed for SF in 2011 and was called conservative, racist and terrorist by the left for doing so, now you're not allowed to mention SF's past without being labelled far-right.


Aontú aka right SF isn't working becasue they just aren't SF. If SF gets in, and shows they clearly arent a right party they will lose a lot of ther core support and FF might regain some of that.


Another problem with Aontú is that the right in Ireland are ususally centre right and pro abortion, pro same sex mariage and anti racism. But are anti uncontrolled immigration, anti handouts for immigrants, pro direct provision as long as it's not near them, anti traveller, anti gender quotas, anti new gen feminism, anti the cis white male hating that is now incredibly popular, even just anti the use of the term cis. A lot of people call me right wing or conservative and Aontu are way too far right for me. As are SF and FG way too far left.



SF have managed to starve FF by taking the left vote without losing their core support. When they have to put their policies into practice support on one side or the other will crumble.


If FF can capitalise on the middle ground they will easily recover in a few years.

bobbysands81

Fuzzyduzzy wrote: »

People will not give up traditions so easily. The wife's side of the family would never go against them, same for many others. It's adorable how folk still connect a political party with people from over 100 years ago.

Is your wife the same? Would she also not go against FF?

Loafing Oaf

GarIT wrote: »

A lot of people don't see that SF's voter spectrum is like a horse shoe. We don't have a decent right or conservative party becasue SF gets all the conservative votes. For a very long time nobody would vote for SF except the right and a lot of them are now disgusted with SF's direction but will still vote for them for a UI vote. I canvassed for SF in 2011 and was called conservative, racist and terrorist by the left for doing so, now you're not allowed to mention SF's past without being labelled far-right.


Aontú aka right SF isn't working becasue they just aren't SF. If SF gets in, and shows they clearly arent a right party they will lose a lot of ther core support and FF might regain some of that.


Another problem with Aontú is that the right in Ireland are ususally centre right and pro abortion, pro same sex mariage and anti racism. But are anti uncontrolled immigration, anti handouts for immigrants, pro direct provision as long as it's not near them, anti traveller, anti gender quotas, anti new gen feminism, anti the cis white male hating that is now incredibly popular, even just anti the use of the term cis. A lot of people call me right wing or conservative and Aontu are way too far right for me. As are SF and FG way too far left.



SF have managed to starve FF by taking the left vote without losing their core support. When they have to put their policies into practice support on one side or the other will crumble.


If FF can capitalise on the middle ground they will easily recover in a few years.

What evidence have you that there is a significant right-wing element to SF's vote? I'm surprised anyone in 2021 who genuinely believes SF will pursue 'right-wing' policies in government can find their way to the polling station...

jmcc

C3PO wrote: »

Fine Gael are the biggest party in the country!

If one believes the propaganda from RTE, Labour is the biggest party. Though going by votes, SF is the largest party. It had too many votes at the last GE and was generous enough to get other candidates elected. FG also does not have any elected members in NI. SF and the Greens organise in the South and NI. FF had the chance to campaign with an SDLP/FF candidate in the North and O'Cuiv was even photographed with the candidate at a press conference. The neo-Unionist Micheal Martin did not like that and O'Cuiv was demoted from his position as deputy leader. The sooner Martin fecks off and joins FG, the better it will be for FF.

Regards...jmcc