Is FF gone as a party?

bobbysands81

A core principle of Fianna Fáil since its inception has been the reunification of the country.

Micheál Martin has made it very clear that a United Ireland is not something that he has an active interest in pursuing. This is part of the reason that FF are struggling. Fine Gael are appearing far more interested in a United Ireland than FF are.

FF have a huge image issue, it’s all men in suits. That doesn’t resonate with voters anymore, especially younger ones. Fine Gael portray a far younger outward looking confident vision when compared to FF. They look far less male, far less grey, far younger and more progressive to voters. Given that they now look for votes from the exact same cohort it’s absolutely no surprise that supporters are leaving FF in their droves.

FF need to reinvent themselves, at the moment they are in serious trouble. Either side of them in the political sphere, to the right or to the left, there are other political parties doing what they are doing but FAR FAR better.

Micheál Martin’s want to become Taoiseach has cost the party dear, they are I serious trouble and need to reinvent themselves very quickly. I have no doubt that as soon as Micheál Martin’s tenure as Taoiseach is over, he’ll be shunted and a new more relevant leader will emerge.

Martin leading them into the next election could potentially destroy the party.

bobbysands81

bobbysands81 wrote: »

A core principle of Fianna Fáil since its inception has been the reunification of the country.

Micheál Martin has made it very clear that a United Ireland is not something that he has an active interest in pursuing. This is part of the reason that FF are struggling. Fine Gael are appearing far more interested in a United Ireland than FF are.

FF have a huge image issue, it’s all men in suits. That doesn’t resonate with voters anymore, especially younger ones. Fine Gael portray a far younger outward looking confident vision when compared to FF. They look far less male, far less grey, far younger and more progressive to voters. Given that they now look for votes from the exact same cohort it’s absolutely no surprise that supporters are leaving FF in their droves.

FF need to reinvent themselves, at the moment they are in serious trouble. Either side of them in the political sphere, to the right or to the left, there are other political parties doing what they are doing but FAR FAR better.

Micheál Martin’s want to become Taoiseach has cost the party dear, they are I serious trouble and need to reinvent themselves very quickly. I have no doubt that as soon as Micheál Martin’s tenure as Taoiseach is over, he’ll be shunted and a new more relevant leader will emerge.

Martin leading them into the next election could potentially destroy the party.

MM intends on leading them into the next GE. I can’t see it happening and the next favourite for leader is Jim O Callaghan but I can’t see him making big gains either.
They need a massive overhaul for sure. I don’t think anyone can definitely say what their stance or policy is on anything and that’s a big problem.

GarIT

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

What evidence have you that there is a significant right-wing element to SF's vote? I'm surprised anyone in 2021 who genuinely believes SF will pursue 'right-wing' policies in government can find their way to the polling station...

No published research just conversations with members. They don't think SF will impliment right wing policies, some of them dont even think. They just want a United Ireland and like to complain about the English and sing IRA songs.

Floppybits

bobbysands81 wrote: »

A core principle of Fianna Fáil since its inception has been the reunification of the country.

Micheál Martin has made it very clear that a United Ireland is not something that he has an active interest in pursuing. This is part of the reason that FF are struggling. Fine Gael are appearing far more interested in a United Ireland than FF are.

FF have a huge image issue, it’s all men in suits. That doesn’t resonate with voters anymore, especially younger ones. Fine Gael portray a far younger outward looking confident vision when compared to FF. They look far less male, far less grey, far younger and more progressive to voters. Given that they now look for votes from the exact same cohort it’s absolutely no surprise that supporters are leaving FF in their droves.

FF need to reinvent themselves, at the moment they are in serious trouble. Either side of them in the political sphere, to the right or to the left, there are other political parties doing what they are doing but FAR FAR better.

Micheál Martin’s want to become Taoiseach has cost the party dear, they are I serious trouble and need to reinvent themselves very quickly. I have no doubt that as soon as Micheál Martin’s tenure as Taoiseach is over, he’ll be shunted and a new more relevant leader will emerge.

Martin leading them into the next election could potentially destroy the party.

The problem for FF is that they don't have the people in the party to change that old, male and stale look they have at the moment. When Martin is shunted who will take over, there is not much there really and the thing is do the public trust them?

timmyntc

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

What evidence have you that there is a significant right-wing element to SF's vote? I'm surprised anyone in 2021 who genuinely believes SF will pursue 'right-wing' policies in government can find their way to the polling station...

They arent right-wing, more what would be described as "old-school" left.
Unions, social housing, tax corporations and tough on immigrants - that kind of old school left. A lot of the republican types hold those views, and SF get the vote in spite of some of their policies, because SF are the republican party.

GarIT

Floppybits wrote: »

The problem for FF is that they don't have the people in the party to change that old, male and stale look they have at the moment. When Martin is shunted who will take over, there is not much there really and the thing is do the public trust them?

A few papers have said Norma Foley but I think she has made an embarrasment of herself. Constantly makes a claim or promise and goes back on it the next day when Leo tells her otherwise.


Made promises to teachers and betrayed them. Said schools are safe and closed them the next day, said schools are safe to reopen then cancelled it. Said schools would open for special needs students and then went back on that. Said there couldn't be errors with calculated grades and then there were errors with calculated grades and probably more.

GarIT

timmyntc wrote: »

They arent right-wing, more what would be described as "old-school" left.
Unions, social housing, tax corporations and tough on immigrants - that kind of old school left. A lot of the republican types hold those views, and SF get the vote in spite of some of their policies, because SF are the republican party.

Agreed but now that is considered right wing as far as I know. There is also a knuckle-dragging element to some of them. Bring back the good times fighting the Brits etc.

jmcc

dulpit wrote: »

You have to imagine that the reason Casey got such a high vote was because it was a Presidential election.

Casey acted as a magnet for votes from all over the political spectrum. Some votes were sick and tired of criminality in rural areas. Others were sick and tired of the crony politics that saw FF/FG/Labour install their little crony as president. It was a precursor to the shock of the GE for FF/FG and what's left of Labour. Casey hadn't the political organisation to take advantage of that vote. Even in the subsequent Euros, he still got a relatively good number of votes. He managed to beat two FFers and RTE's candidate Saoirse McHugh.

Regards...jmcc

Diceicle

FF appear to be a party without vision or purpose.
They don't seem to stand for anything beyond the 'whatever you're having yourself'.
I do think there is a gap in the market for a PD-type party.

Jizique

timmyntc wrote: »

They arent right-wing, more what would be described as "old-school" left.
Unions, social housing, tax corporations and tough on immigrants - that kind of old school left. A lot of the republican types hold those views, and SF get the vote in spite of some of their policies, because SF are the republican party.

Tough on immigrants? SF? That's news.
Now, perhaps they should be, as I suspect that is what a good chunk of their more working class voters would be supportive of, but then they would lose a fair chunk of the young "woke" crowd, the college trendy lefties.
Plus, their biggest fear is being outed in the media and online as a UKIP-style ireland-first party, which of course is really what they are beneath the bluster.

jmcc

Deleted User wrote: »

MM intends on leading them into the next GE. I can’t see it happening and the next favourite for leader is Jim O Callaghan but I can’t see him making big gains either.
They need a massive overhaul for sure. I don’t think anyone can definitely say what their stance or policy is on anything and that’s a big problem.

On the recent poll figures, FF will have difficulty in holding seats in Dublin. It would be unfortunate if FF were to make him leader only for him to lose his seat in the next GE. The problem for FF is that it is needs to get rid of Martin but cannot risk a GE on its current poll figures. Admittedly, its real support may be between 3% and 6% higher than the current opinion polls because they all use the same online/phone methodology. FF's older supporters don't like online/phone polling and FF does much better with face to face polling. Martin has been absolutely toxic for FF and really is the type who would have been in FG or Labour only that when he joined FF was the largest party in the state and the natural party of government. Martin and his friends Ahern and Cowen put and end to that.


Regards...jmcc

GarIT

Jizique wrote: »

Tough on immigrants? SF? That's news.
Now, perhaps they should be, as I suspect that is what a good chunk of their more working class voters would be supportive of, but then they would lose a fair chunk of the young "woke" crowd, the college trendy lefties.
Plus, their biggest fear is being outed in the media and online as a UKIP-style ireland-first party, which of course is really what they are beneath the bluster.

You missed the point. The SF voter spectrum is like a horseshoe. They collect a decent portion of the right-wing vote on the basis of a UI being more important than anything else despite their left-leaning policies. What was the lowest they went to, around 8% I think, that core vote is largely right-wing. And sentiment I've heard amongst members is "who else is there to vote for. All parties are left-wing now" or far-right and that's not what they want either. Might as well stick with SF.


I think this will come to a head if they get into government.

mzungu

FF are too ingrained in the Irish psyche to disappear completely. However, they are losing support with their core vote base  (60+ age group) and they don't appear to be making any inroads into the youth vote either. If that continues, they should be worried.

GarIT

mzungu wrote: »

FF are too ingrained in the Irish psyche to disappear completely. However, they are losing support with their core vote base (60+ age group) and they don't appear to be making any inroads into the youth vote either. If that continues, they should be worried.

The middle-aged remember what FF has done. The younger people haven't become conservative yet but they will as they get older and will move away from SF if it stays as it is now.

Everyone thinks money should be taken from the haves and redistributed to the have nots until they become the haves then they want to hang onto what they have. FF is definitely a party of hanging onto what you have.

jmcc

Diceicle wrote: »

FF appear to be a party without vision or purpose.
They don't seem to stand for anything beyond the 'whatever you're having yourself'.
I do think there is a gap in the market for a PD-type party.

The PDs were Provisional Fianna Fail. They caught a wave of discontent with high taxation rates but the problem was that they were no different to the other gombeens in DE. They quickly became a useful half-party for FF. Once the property bubble burst, the PDs disappeared.

A real liberal and right of centre party would take votes from FF and FG but the problem is that the Irish political system is rigged against that kind of change as it is very difficult for people to find the time to run for the Dail and it is also exepensive.

Regards...jmcc

screamer

MMs legacy will be the annihilation of the FF parliamentary party. I don’t feel sorry for them, they should have heaved against him long ago and rebuilt their brand and party. That they didn’t and continue not to do so will be their ultimate downfall, and deservedly so.

I wouldn’t vote for SF if they were the only party running. They are not progressive in any way if you are a working person. Communists masquerading as a political party. They would see those of us who work left penniless to give to scroungers of all kinds. A vote for SF by hardworking people is like turkeys voting for Christmas.

Greens- out of touch, and again, only necessary to make up the numbers

Labour Alan Kelly - enough said

Right now, FG is about the only party I’d think of voting for, and I’d have to give it some serious thought if I’d even bother anymore.

jmcc

mzungu wrote: »

FF are too ingrained in the Irish psyche to disappear completely. However, they are losing support with their core vote base  (60+ age group) and they don't appear to be making any inroads into the youth vote either. If that continues, they should be worried.

Due to the small sample sizes and even smaller splits on age demographics, opinion polls should be treated as Astrology with a veneer of Numerology to make them look scientifically respectable. They generally have a sample size of about 1,000. Small changes in the age demographics in these polls can have massive results.

Regards...jmcc

GarIT

I also forgot to add SF have always gotten the "anyone but the government" vote. Sticking it to the man, SF wouldn't treat us like the current shower of gombeens do. They will lose that vote when they get in and things mostly stay the same.

screamer

screamer wrote: »

MMs legacy will be the annihilation of the FF parliamentary party. I don’t feel sorry for them, they should have heaved against him long ago and rebuilt their brand and party. That they didn’t and continue not to do so will be their ultimate downfall, and deservedly so.

I wouldn’t vote for SF if they were the only party running. They are not progressive in any way if you are a working person. Communists masquerading as a political party. They would see those of us who work left penniless to give to scroungers of all kinds. A vote for SF by hardworking people is like turkeys voting for Christmas.

Greens- out of touch, and again, only necessary to make up the numbers

Labour Alan Kelly - enough said

Right now, FG is about the only party I’d think of voting for, and I’d have to give it some serious thought if I’d even bother anymore.

Yep. It's FG all the way next time, for me.

jmcc

screamer wrote: »

They are not progressive in any way if you are a working person.

Their stance illegal immigration is problematic. It plays well with the Wokus Dei simpletons in the media but is a possible weakness in demographics that have to compete for resources like housing, unemployment benefits and education.

The SocDems have acted as a sinkhole for that kind of nice but dim "progressive" vote. SF still has a wide enough political spectrum in terms of issues and that makes it attractive to people who would not vote FF or FG. It is really just another "teacher on tour" party.

Communists masquerading as a political party.

That was the Stickies until the Berlin Wall fell and they became Labourites. Naturally, the party collapsed as fast as the Warsaw Pact much to the disgust of the Stickies in Labour and RTE who fancied themselves as kommissars for the Soviet People's Republic of Gombeenia.

Greens- out of touch, and again, only necessary to make up the numbers

The Greens provided a useful "None Of The Above" option for people who didn't want to vote for FF/FG/SF and Labour. They are a very different demographic to other parties. The problem for the Greens was that they attracted some of the types who would previously joined Labour before Labour imploded. This has led to some problems (the ARG splinter party attempt) in the Greens and a failed coup.

Labour Alan Kelly - enough said

Labour would not be in the mess they are in now if Kelly was made leader of Labour after Joan Burton. The coronation of Brendan Howlin was a disaster for Labour even after Joan Burton. RTE still thinks that he is the leader of a major party and has him on panels. That still keeps a fringe party like Labour in the media. Without him it would be the virtue signallers O'Riordan and Bacik.

Right now, FG is about the only party I’d think of voting for, and I’d have to give it some serious thought if I’d even bother anymore.

Are you basing this on FG's financial policies? What do you think of the cronyism in FG of Varadkar leaking a confidential document to his friend?

Regards...jmcc

Leanneggg

skimpydoo wrote: »

It's looking more likely that FF is slowly disintegrating and more info is in the Irish Examiner story below.

Is it time that FF and FG merged? Because it looks like only of these two party's will be left standing.

If they merged I would be very disappointed in FG.I Hate FF, and am a member of FG

lawred2

jmcc wrote: »

Due to the small sample sizes and even smaller splits on age demographics, opinion polls should be treated as Astrology with a veneer of Numerology to make them look scientifically respectable. They generally have a sample size of about 1,000. Small changes in the age demographics in these polls can have massive results.

Regards...jmcc

it's also much easier to say "you'll never vote FF again" as part of a meaningless poll

different story when it comes to putting your preference down on paper

Zebra3

markodaly wrote: »

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/vaccination-is-crucial-sinn-fein-tells-reluctant-supporters-5f8klx7jf

An opinion poll. Wow.

Bobtheman

jmcc wrote: »

Their stance illegal immigration is problematic. It plays well with the Wokus Dei simpletons in the media but is a possible weakness in demographics that have to compete for resources like housing, unemployment benefits and education.

The SocDems have acted as a sinkhole for that kind of nice but dim "progressive" vote. SF still has a wide enough political spectrum in terms of issues and that makes it attractive to people who would not vote FF or FG. It is really just another "teacher on tour" party.

That was the Stickies until the Berlin Wall fell and they became Labourites. Naturally, the party collapsed as fast as the Warsaw Pact much to the disgust of the Stickies in Labour and RTE who fancied themselves as kommissars for the Soviet People's Republic of Gombeenia.

The Greens provided a useful "None Of The Above" option for people who didn't want to vote for FF/FG/SF and Labour. They are a very different demographic to other parties. The problem for the Greens was that they attracted some of the types who would previously joined Labour before Labour imploded. This has led to some problems (the ARG splinter party attempt) in the Greens and a failed coup.

Labour would not be in the mess they are in now if Kelly was made leader of Labour after Joan Burton. The coronation of Brendan Howlin was a disaster for Labour even after Joan Burton. RTE still thinks that he is the leader of a major party and has him on panels. That still keeps a fringe party like Labour in the media. Without him it would be the virtue signallers O'Riordan and Bacik.

Are you basing this on FG's financial policies? What do you think of the cronyism in FG of Varadkar leaking a confidential document to his friend?

Regards...jmcc

I don't know why you bothered to tackle what was a moronic analysis jmvcc

Strumms

McGinniesta wrote: »

Short of pulling their jocks down and taking a dump on the floor of the dail, what do the FF party have to do before people truly realise their incompetence

I’d vote FF before FG. All FG give a **** about is the business person, and would **** each and all of our rights, aspirations and US too under a truck to see the business community looked after... lower taxes for businesses and higher taxes for us, they pd stamp all over employment law...

It’s a shame labour are so piss weak...

Bobtheman

SF are pitching themselves as a left of center party.
I'd be wary of making simplistic bar stool analysis such as they are another teacher on tour party.
They have a good housing policy though I think they have too much faith in councils.
Abolishing the property tax is pure populist stuff
I'd have to read up on their policies which is something a lot of the bar flies with their catch phrases don't do here.
Bottom line is if you voted FG/FF last time you voted for more of the same.
SF have some serious policies but are inclined to be a wee bit populist for my liking.
The greens /SDP/lab are at least telling people the truth.
You want better services you will pay more tax.
No party im aware of wants to tackle the unions in the HSE.

Bobtheman

jmcc wrote: »

Their stance illegal immigration is problematic. It plays well with the Wokus Dei simpletons in the media but is a possible weakness in demographics that have to compete for resources like housing, unemployment benefits and education.

The SocDems have acted as a sinkhole for that kind of nice but dim "progressive" vote. SF still has a wide enough political spectrum in terms of issues and that makes it attractive to people who would not vote FF or FG. It is really just another "teacher on tour" party.

That was the Stickies until the Berlin Wall fell and they became Labourites. Naturally, the party collapsed as fast as the Warsaw Pact much to the disgust of the Stickies in Labour and RTE who fancied themselves as kommissars for the Soviet People's Republic of Gombeenia.

The Greens provided a useful "None Of The Above" option for people who didn't want to vote for FF/FG/SF and Labour. They are a very different demographic to other parties. The problem for the Greens was that they attracted some of the types who would previously joined Labour before Labour imploded. This has led to some problems (the ARG splinter party attempt) in the Greens and a failed coup.

Labour would not be in the mess they are in now if Kelly was made leader of Labour after Joan Burton. The coronation of Brendan Howlin was a disaster for Labour even after Joan Burton. RTE still thinks that he is the leader of a major party and has him on panels. That still keeps a fringe party like Labour in the media. Without him it would be the virtue signallers O'Riordan and Bacik.

Are you basing this on FG's financial policies? What do you think of the cronyism in FG of Varadkar leaking a confidential document to his friend?

Regards...jmcc

Strumms wrote: »

I’d vote FF before FG. All FG give a **** about is the business person, and would **** each and all of our rights, aspirations and US too under a truck to see the business community looked after... lower taxes for businesses and higher taxes for us, they pd stamp all over employment law...

It’s a shame labour are so piss weak...

Can you name one different policy FF have over FG or are you still buying the party of the people bull****. They bought everyone off under bertie all on your money. A very corrupt bunch who are laughing at the poor peasants who buy their republican bull****.

jmcc

Bobtheman wrote: »

I don't know why you bothered to tackle what was a moronic analysis jmvcc

Because if nobody challenges it, it will be accepted as fact. SF is becoming what FF once was (a broadly Left of centre party with widespread support across demographics). Ireland's electorate is still quite centrist and it is the support for FG, rather than SF that is the anomaly. FF under Martin has drifted closer to FG's position and it is the floating vote that bounces between FF and FG in successive GEs that is currently making FG appear better supported than it is in reality. Prior to the Stickies takeover of Labour, a lot of the soft FF vote would have gone to Labour as second or third preferences. Once that stopped, Labour collapsed.

The problem for FF and FG is that they are now competing for a narrow floating vote (about 10%) that oscillates between FF and FG. FG's position in the opinion polls, much like that of FF, isn't taking support from other parties outside the FF/FG spectrum. FF and FG have become a single party to the electorate in that there really is no difference between the two.

Regards...jmcc

jmcc

Bobtheman wrote: »

SF are pitching themselves as a left of center party.
I'd be wary of making simplistic bar stool analysis such as they are another teacher on tour party.

The SocDems are the "teacher on tour" party. SF is very different from this. It is highly organised and effective.

They have a good housing policy though I think they have too much faith in councils.

They do seem to have thought about how to solve the problems of housing. That hard part would be implementing that.

Abolishing the property tax is pure populist stuff

It may need to be reexamined. The decision by FF in the 1970s to abolish rates to win votes is still having an effect decades later.

The greens /SDP/lab are at least telling people the truth.
You want better services you will pay more tax.
No party im aware of wants to tackle the unions in the HSE.

The Greens are quite different from the other two in that they have an almost religious adherence to Green matters and an understanding that they have to be in government to get anything done about these matters. The influx of Labour types (the /Greta Thunberg/Mary Robinson/Climate Justice fans) has caused problems for the Greens.

The SocDems are quite confusing as a party in that they don't seem to want to be in a government that they don't run. It even has two leaders.

Labour still has a major problem with Bacik and O'Riordan virtue signalling to the kind of people who read the Irish Times, tell people they vote Labour but really vote FF/FG. Labour lost its Working Class vote to SF and PBP/Socialists/etc because the Labourites got too used to being the half party in a 2.5 party model. Once the dominant political model shifted to the current 3 party model (where no two of the big three parties have enough seats to form a government), the electorate had no further use for them. Labour is so worried now that it is talking about the SocDems merging with Labour.

The last GE was a highly abnormal one in that a lot of SF's votes went all over the place and even got Greens elected. In the next one, FF will be fighting for its political life and SF will be running more candidates. That could see the SocDems, the Greens and even FF and FG lose seats.


Regards...jmcc

RandomViewer

markodaly wrote: »

The same Gemma who got SF councillors to support her nomination for the presidency, that Gemma?

Getting her on the ballot would put FG in an awkward place, redacted old squeeze up for prez