Vaccine Megathread - See OP for threadbans

ACitizenErased

Deathofcool wrote: »

Going by the Belgian delivery numbers (they have been incredibly accurate to date) we are looking at a large delivery next week. Should be in the region of 400k-418k doses for us over next week.

Baffling that Astrazeneca can’t confirm what they’re going to send the week after. Shocking planning. At least J&J have an excuse.

TomOnBoard

Strazdas wrote: »

But if you're on the portal and are registered, you are not supposed to be receiving a vaccine from anywhere else, isn't that right?

I don't believe that to be the practical reality.

If George (63) registers on the portal, he is saying "Hey, I'm here, Can I have an appointment please." While on the portal, his GP is not aware of that. Then, some spare Pfizers become available at tbe GP. They've been going through their lists and select George as a likely candidate because he has a mild COPD, is a phat phucker (but BMI < 40) and lives 10 minutes away. So they ring George and say "You wanna vaccine?" . What's George to do?

Strazdas

TomOnBoard wrote: »

I don't believe that to be the practical reality.

If George (63) registers on the portal, he is saying "Hey, I'm here, Can I have an appointment please." While on the portal, his GP is not aware of that. Then, some spare Pfizers become available at tbe GP. They've been going through their lists and select George as a likely candidate because he has a mild COPD, is a phat phucker (but BMI < 40) and lives 10 minutes away. So they ring George and say "You wanna vaccine?" . What's George to do?

I think what would have gone wrong there is that George is not supposed to have registered on the national portal.

ddarcy

Ficheall wrote: »

Know someone who took nearly three hours to get through Sligo process this week, so doesn't seem to be rectified yet..

I showed up about 10 minutes early to move and it took 3 hours in total. Not sure how it all goes when it’s rainy, etc. But all the queuing is done outdoors

TomOnBoard

Strazdas wrote: »

I think what would have gone wrong there is that George is not supposed to have registered on the national portal.

HSE says that , being 63, George should/may/can register on the Portal.

https://vaccine.hse.ie/

Champagne Sally

This is where barcodes with your appointment would be handy, security guy scans your barcode and either sends you into queue or into waiting car park. But probably asking too much. People are afraid they’ll be late and caught in traffic they don’t necessarily want to skip the queue, maybe issuing numbers with appointments and then sorting from that might help.

JTMan

A group of Immunologists and doctors have called for NIAC to make J&J available to all a broad range of age groups ...

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1386030153231372289

Galwayguy35

Don't think they are going to meet this 82% by June deadline they were talking about.

ACitizenErased

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

Don't think they are going to meet this 82% by June deadline they were talking about.

Why not?

JPup

They will (or be very close) unless the J&J vaccine is heavily restricted by age.

Galwayguy35

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Why not?

Watch the news a bit more and you might find out.

GeorgeBailey

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

Watch the news a bit more and you might find out.

For those of us who don't get the opportunity to watch the news could you give a couple of brief points?

ACitizenErased

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

Watch the news a bit more and you might find out.

Do tell us what the news are saying

IRISHSPORTSGUY

No reason we can't reach the target and exceed it, especially with Pfizer giving us 550,000 extra doses. The mood music is also looking good for J&J regarding no restriction (fingers crossed).

Wolf359f

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Why not?

Very very rough calculations:
80% Adult Pop: 3,010,752

Groups 1-4 will all need their 2nd dose before the end of June.
So that's: 526,912 doses needed to have 908,298 people vaccinated

That leaves 2,102,454 people.
Of which Cohort 5 with AZ will not need their second jab until July, so 390,902 doses
J&J single jab: 600,000 doses

Leaving us 1,111,552 people left (here it's all guesswork)
Assuming equal vaccination that's 69 days (first 41 days will need their 2nd Jab before July) so:
660,487 1st Dose
660,487 2nd Dose
451,064 1st Dose (their second dose due July+)

Total doses needed for June 30th target: 3,289,852
That's averaging 47,679 a day, at the moment we're averaging 23k.
We hit 40k in a day without all MVC's running (and most GP's doing 1 day a week due to delivery issues), so it's certainly doable for sure.
I was skeptical until I roughly crunched the numbers, but if the math is correct, it's not a pipe dream!

JPup

The target is for 80% to have received at least one dose. Not two. Or am I reading you wrong?

Wolf359f

JPup wrote: »

The target is for 80% to have received at least one dose. Not two. Or am I reading you wrong?

Yes, but you can't not give people their second dose when their time comes.
So a lot of that 80% target has to include second doses also!

JPup

Wolf359f wrote: »

Yes, but you can't not give people their second dose when their time comes.
So a lot of that 80% target has to include second doses also!

I think they’ll space the second does for healthy under 60s to 6 weeks. Not certain yet of course, but it makes sense to do it.

ddarcy

Wolf359f wrote: »

Very very rough calculations:
80% Adult Pop: 3,010,752

Groups 1-4 will all need their 2nd dose before the end of June.
So that's: 526,912 doses needed to have 908,298 people vaccinated

That leaves 2,102,454 people.
Of which Cohort 5 with AZ will not need their second jab until July, so 390,902 doses
J&J single jab: 600,000 doses

Leaving us 1,111,552 people left (here it's all guesswork)
Assuming equal vaccination that's 69 days (first 41 days will need their 2nd Jab before July) so:
660,487 1st Dose
660,487 2nd Dose
451,064 1st Dose (their second dose due July+)

Total doses needed for June 30th target: 3,289,852
That's averaging 47,679 a day, at the moment we're averaging 23k.
We hit 40k in a day without all MVC's running (and most GP's doing 1 day a week due to delivery issues), so it's certainly doable for sure.
I was skeptical until I roughly crunched the numbers, but if the math is correct, it's not a pipe dream!

Obviously an assumption here, but with J&J, pharmacies could easily do all these, so we can have more options of places to get this done. Assuming of course everyone can get J&J. So could add to the total daily numbers and even help with the poor Sunday performance as well.

Wolf359f

JPup wrote: »

I think they’ll space the second does for healthy under 60s to 6 weeks. Not certain yet of course, but it makes sense to do it.

If they did, instead of 660k needing both doses and 450k only needing 1 dose (total doses: 1.77mil) it would literally be reversed: 450k needing both doses and 660k needing only 1 (total doses: 1.56mil)
So 210k extra doses to use.
When I say needing only 1 dose, that's 1 dose this side of the June 30th target

Wolf359f

ddarcy wrote: »

Obviously an assumption here, but with J&J, pharmacies could easily do all these, so we can have more options of places to get this done. Assuming of course everyone can get J&J. So could add to the total daily numbers and even help with the poor Sunday performance as well.

True and also I'd say pharmacies will be able to cater for Pfizer & Moderna also.
They just lacked the supply!

It would basically mean we need to vaccinated ~1% of our population per day for the next 10 weeks. I don't believe any country has come close to that though for that length of time. But we're not the only country in Europe to have this target. If they can do it (with the same supplies) why can't we?

Strazdas

Wolf359f wrote: »

True and also I'd say pharmacies will be able to cater for Pfizer & Moderna also.
They just lacked the supply!

It would basically mean we need to vaccinated ~1% of our population per day for the next 10 weeks. I don't believe any country has come close to that though for that length of time. But we're not the only country in Europe to have this target. If they can do it (with the same supplies) why can't we?

But that is what is anticipated - they think June will see a ferocious rollout of vaccines.

ACitizenErased

Wolf359f wrote: »

Very very rough calculations:
80% Adult Pop: 3,010,752

Groups 1-4 will all need their 2nd dose before the end of June.
So that's: 526,912 doses needed to have 908,298 people vaccinated

That leaves 2,102,454 people.
Of which Cohort 5 with AZ will not need their second jab until July, so 390,902 doses
J&J single jab: 600,000 doses

Leaving us 1,111,552 people left (here it's all guesswork)
Assuming equal vaccination that's 69 days (first 41 days will need their 2nd Jab before July) so:
660,487 1st Dose
660,487 2nd Dose
451,064 1st Dose (their second dose due July+)

Total doses needed for June 30th target: 3,289,852
That's averaging 47,679 a day, at the moment we're averaging 23k.
We hit 40k in a day without all MVC's running (and most GP's doing 1 day a week due to delivery issues), so it's certainly doable for sure.
I was skeptical until I roughly crunched the numbers, but if the math is correct, it's not a pipe dream!

3.9 million is the expected delivery so I don't see why we can't reach it tbh

Russman

If we take the Belgian forecast from a couple of pages ago and pro rata it for us, plus 500k J&J due in May & June, that gets us there or thereabouts having enough supply for the 3.2m shots needed. It’ll be a close run thing imo. Hopefully the additional Pfizer manufacturing capacity as a result of the EU decision the other day will push us over the line.

Strazdas

Russman wrote: »

If we take the Belgian forecast for a couple of pages ago and pro rata it for us, plus 500k J&J due in May & June, that gets us there or thereabouts having enough supply for the 3.2m shots needed. It’ll be a close run thing imo. Hopefully the additional Pfizer manufacturing capacity as a result of the EU decision the other day will push us over the line.

There is speculation that we could even go ahead of schedule. By June, it's possible that deliveries could start coming faster than had been previously anticipated (we've already seen Pfizer accelerate several times).

ACitizenErased

Strazdas wrote: »

There is speculation that we could even go ahead of schedule. By June, it's possible that deliveries could start coming faster than had been previously anticipated (we've already seen Pfizer accelerate several times).

We're already seeing an AZ delivery expected from May arriving this week so I agree tbh

Russman

Strazdas wrote: »

There is speculation that we could even go ahead of schedule. By June, it's possible that deliveries could start coming faster than had been previously anticipated (we've already seen Pfizer accelerate several times).

True, and that journalist (can’t remember her name tbh) that had 4 scenarios graphed in the Business Post I think had all 4 scenarios beating the June target iirc.

Ficheall

ACitizenErased wrote: »

We're already seeing an AZ delivery expected from May arriving this week so I agree tbh

I thought AZ hugely reduced the promised amount for this week? (25->9 or something like that) Was that fixed?

ACitizenErased

Ficheall wrote: »

I thought AZ hugely reduced the promised amount for this week? (25->9 or something like that) Was that fixed?

There's an AZ delivery of 160k+ (open to correction might be slightly less) arriving this week that was originally from May

Thinkingaboutit

Has there been anything with the Russkie or Chinese options? My impression is that Johnson & Johnson are a bit careless, or least one of their big contractors in Baltimore, Maryland is, with whistleblowers dismissed, production halts due to quality issues, so perhaps these ones might allow the max vax goal to be met, if that's what's wanted.