Vaccine Megathread - See OP for threadbans

Russman

km79 wrote: »

What about Pfizer ?

Yep, they’ll be our workhorse alright. I guess it depends on how quickly we can finish off first doses for groups 4 & 7 before the 50s get started. May will seem like the longest month ever waiting/watching for the cohorts to get going !

Sconsey

PhilOssophy wrote: »

"The CSO’s analysis of the confirmed deaths has found that COVID-19 has had the greatest impact on people aged 65 or over. Almost 92% of confirmed deaths occurred within this age group in the period from 11 March 2020 up to 15 May 2020".

I accept that there are still over people in this age group but I think you're being a bit OTT and reactionary in your response. The bulk of those who are most at risk have or will in the next couple of weeks get a vaccine.

Given the median age of death from Covid is somewhere in the 80s, I still think we have room for optimism given how things are going, do we not?

Maybe we do, I'm all for optimism, I'm simply pointing out that your statement that over 90% of the vulnerable have already been jabbed is wrong. They have not.

Also - I admit I haven't been following the rollout in the last few days due to work, the data hub seems to tell a different story about 350k outstanding, or is this data incorrect?

https://covid-19.geohive.ie/pages/vaccinations

That looks like a link to the numbers that have been vaccinated. So if you take a look at group 7 for example (the medically vulnerable) you will see that there have been 639 people jabbed, out of a few hundred thousand (cant remember the exact figure). Now include all the over 60's that have not got a jab yet...the less than 10% remaining number you gave is just plain wrong.

Like I said, I'm all for the optimistic outlook, but it we have to keep the facts in line too.

Russman

Strazdas wrote: »

They are indeed but you would think they will only open the portal to them if there a 'lot' of vaccine doses available (i.e. they don't want people registering, only to be left waiting weeks for an appointment.....they want the vaccination to happen very quickly after the person registers).

I think someone mentioned previously we could be expecting c400k doses delivered this coming week (based on that Belgian schedule). It’s a bit lower in the following weeks but 2/3 weeks away is probably doable. (Says he hopefully !)

Sconsey

JPup wrote: »

Isn’t the median age of death here 82? Or very close to it. So by doing the over 80s, which we have, that’s already more than 50% of potential deaths eliminated. Plus large majority of over 70s now have one dose plus a significant minority of 60-69 and other high risk groups. So I’d say 75% reduction in likely deaths has now been achieved. 90% might be a bit high, but maybe not. And we’ll be there in the next couple of weeks for sure.

Absolutely, I think we will be there by the end of May myself, but we are not there yet. We are not over 90% there either, which is the number I was questioning.

PhilOssophy

Sconsey wrote: »

Maybe we do, I'm all for optimism, I'm simply pointing out that your statement that over 90% of the vulnerable have already been jabbed is wrong. They have not.



That looks like a link to the numbers that have been vaccinated. So if you take a look at group 7 for example (the medically vulnerable) you will see that there have been 639 people jabbed, out of a few hundred thousand (cant remember the exact figure). Now include all the over 60's that have not got a jab yet...the less than 10% remaining number you gave is just plain wrong.

Like I said, I'm all for the optimistic outlook, but it we have to keep the facts in line too.

I guess it depends on your definition of vulnerable - to me, the bulk of those who are "really" vulnerable are vaccinated or about to be in the next week or two.

I completely mis-read that link! My bad and yes my figures are indeed wrong!

St.Spodo

Has there been any mainstream media acknowledgement of the expected vaccine deliveries for Ireland next week? It seems that people following this closely are tuned in to the numbers based on the Belgian release, but I haven't seen e.g. RTÉ or Virgin Media's journalists mention it at all.

Lumen

PhilOssophy wrote: »

I guess it depends on your definition of vulnerable - to me, the bulk of those who are "really" vulnerable are vaccinated or about to be in the next week or two.

I completely mis-read that link! My bad and yes my figures are indeed wrong!

OK, to quickly sanity check the cohort 7 risk I ran the risk calculator for a 40 y/o with 35 BMI and asthma, and got relative risk of 1.5x death and 1.8x hospitalisation.

That's not what I would call "high risk", I'd call it "mildly elevated risk"

If anyone can be bothered to run it for a few more cohort 7 criteria that would be great. Thanksbye.

https://www.qcovid.org/Calculation

ACitizenErased

St.Spodo wrote: »

Has there been any mainstream media acknowledgement of the expected vaccine deliveries for Ireland next week? It seems that people following this closely are tuned in to the numbers based on the Belgian release, but I haven't seen e.g. RTÉ or Virgin Media's journalists mention it at all.

RTE would rather write about the weekly weekend hospital increase

Marcusm

JPup wrote: »

Isn’t the median age of death here 82? Or very close to it. So by doing the over 80s, which we have, that’s already more than 50% of potential deaths eliminated. Plus large majority of over 70s now have one dose plus a significant minority of 60-69 and other high risk groups. So I’d say 75% reduction in likely deaths has now been achieved. 90% might be a bit high, but maybe not. And we’ll be there in the next couple of weeks for sure.

81.9% of the covid deaths in Ireland were aged 65 or older.

In the past week, only 5.2% or 134 have been in the over 65 cohort. This has been consistently been below 10% for 6 weeks or so. Many of the deaths currently being reported happened weeks or months ago. The mortality of the current wave has ended.

Absolute case numbers have not reduced over 6 weeks but the absolute number of tests has increased by 30% (walk-in centres) rendering the reporting of absolute numbers to be meaningless. 2.7% of tests return positive results, higher in some areas, lower in others.

Morbidity (sickness) rather than mortality (death) is, absent variants of concern, out particular issue. We should all learn from our conduct. I would not sit in groups in parks/beaches as seen in Stephen’s Green or Salthill yesterday. However, I am fed up with being restricted in other areas. Why should I not be permitted to go on a lengthy drive, take up residence in a holiday home etc? Also, the focus on outbound travel and the banning thereof is fatuous. The focus should be solely on inbound travel. I appreciate that outbound travel begets inbound travel. However, I should like to be able to go overseas to deal with business matters that might not be regarded as essential but which I consider important. Should I not be permitted to do this (to a country with lower covid incidence than here) with a promise for quarantine at home (or in extremis in a hotel) if I am content to do so. Why should I be subject to a penal provision?

Why should retail outlets, hairdressers etc which can limit numbers and exercise reasonable precautions be precluded from opening?

blackcard

Reading Luke O'Neill's article in the Sindo today where he stated that the AstraZeneca vaccine had 66% efficacy against getting Covid-19 and 75% efficacy against serious disease. I am not blown away by those figures at all. I would prefer to go to the back of the queue for the Pfizer vaccine rather than take AstraZeneca

Sanjuro

blackcard wrote: »

Reading Luke O'Neill's article in the Sindo today where he stated that the AstraZeneca vaccine had 66% efficacy against getting Covid-19 and 75% efficacy against serious disease. I am not blown away by those figures at all. I would prefer to go to the back of the queue for the Pfizer vaccine rather than take AstraZeneca

If we had gotten a vaccine that was 60% effective, that would have been good enough. We're spoilt by having vaccines with efficacy in the high 90%. Suddenly everyone's a vaccine expert and wants to cherry pick which one they get. Take what you're offered.

ACitizenErased

blackcard wrote: »

Reading Luke O'Neill's article in the Sindo today where he stated that the AstraZeneca vaccine had 66% efficacy against getting Covid-19 and 75% efficacy against serious disease. I am not blown away by those figures at all. I would prefer to go to the back of the queue for the Pfizer vaccine rather than take AstraZeneca

Your yearly flu jab has about 40-50% efficacy.

irishlad.

https://twitter.com/paulreiddublin/status/1386333101891129347

blackcard

blackcard wrote: »

Reading Luke O'Neill's article in the Sindo today where he stated that the AstraZeneca vaccine had 66% efficacy against getting Covid-19 and 75% efficacy against serious disease. I am not blown away by those figures at all. I would prefer to go to the back of the queue for the Pfizer vaccine rather than take AstraZeneca

Did he quote the source for the serious disease efficacy?

All of their published trial results have had 100% efficacy against severe disease (albeit with small samples and in the case of the South Africa results there were no severe cases in either the placebo or vaccine group).

I expect there have been severe cases in the UK following single dose, but I haven't seen any published info yet about that.

blackcard

blackcard wrote: »

Reading Luke O'Neill's article in the Sindo today where he stated that the AstraZeneca vaccine had 66% efficacy against getting Covid-19 and 75% efficacy against serious disease. I am not blown away by those figures at all. I would prefer to go to the back of the queue for the Pfizer vaccine rather than take AstraZeneca

That was J&J he was referring to not AstraZeneca. In the trials protection against disease rose to 85% after 28 days. Bare in mind it's a single dose regimen so those figures are actually very good.

irishlad.

According to ECDC vaccine tracker we got a delivery of 137k of Pfizer during the week.

https://vaccinetracker.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/vaccine-tracker.html#distribution-tab

KrustyUCC

irishlad. wrote: »

https://twitter.com/paulreiddublin/status/1386333101891129347

Good week in fairness

Martin said they're expecting 250,000 next week though

Big ramp up to hit that figures

irishlad.

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Good week in fairness

Martin said they're expecting 250,000 next week though

Big ramp up to hit that figures

Didn't see that, brilliant!

lbj666

St.Spodo wrote: »

Has there been any mainstream media acknowledgement of the expected vaccine deliveries for Ireland next week? It seems that people following this closely are tuned in to the numbers based on the Belgian release, but I haven't seen e.g. RTÉ or Virgin Media's journalists mention it at all.

Interested to see if what's facilities that mobilised already will be able to quickly turnaround what is a one off bumper delivery week, by the Belgian numbers we wont see those sort of deliveries again til June.

is_that_so

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Good week in fairness

Martin said they're expecting 250,000 next week though

Big ramp up to hit that figures

That might explain why they are also lining up the 60-64 group as well.

ACitizenErased

This guy does savage stats work on Twitter. He's predicting 100% first dose coverage by the 7th of July.
https://twitter.com/rwallirl/status/1386353391715209218?s=20

mr zulu

Registered this morning for vaccine, was vaccanted a hour ago, got a phone call to come in, very impressed with that.

Probes

ACitizenErased wrote: »

This guy does savage stats work on Twitter. He's predicting 100% first dose coverage by the 7th of July.
https://twitter.com/rwallirl/status/1386353391715209218?s=20

Is this with everyone accepting the vaccine? Presumably there will be a few who forgo the vaccine which bodes well for those of us who would like it.

correct horse battery staple

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

All them Brexiteers awful quiet about UK doing a deal for follow up boosters AFTER Eu this time round

They ordered 50m Curevac "variant" targeting boosters in February.

LimerickGray

irishlad. wrote: »

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cUZy6AMCwuA2zhtRuKK7cqMVgmhdDsGsZrFWJTkw9DY/edit#gid=502588836

I believe the 'ramp up' has begun :P

Thanks

How is it possible that 8 people have received a 2nd dose in Cohort 5 when they only commenced vaccination this week?

LimerickGray

sd1999 wrote: »

Looks like Cohort 4 should be pretty much completely finished dose one next week, aside from those who are housebound etc.

I don't see it. Where can we see the total number in a Cohort? I can only see who got a 1st and 2nd vaccine but not the total in the cohort.

I was due to receive AZ and was cancelled cohort 4 - still not received any update. emailed hselive, spoke to consultant (he said he emails VAX centre but traffic only goes one way)

secman

mr zulu wrote: »

Registered this morning for vaccine, was vaccanted a hour ago, got a phone call to come in, very impressed with that.

Was that the HSE portal to register for 62 year olds that you registered on ?
I registered yesterday as a 63 year old, not expecting to hear from them until Friday at tge earliest.

is_that_so

secman wrote: »

Was that the HSE portal to register for 62 year olds that you registered on ?
I registered yesterday as a 63 year old, not expecting to hear from them until Friday at tge earliest.

Could be local demographics at work for that poster.

mr zulu

Yes,registered this morning in 62 group.

secman

mr zulu wrote: »

Yes,registered this morning in 62 group.

That's astonishingly quick, you had no time to worry about it

What part of the country ?